According to Serbian Economist, the Hungarian opposition’s victory in the parliamentary elections and the upcoming change of government in Budapest have added uncertainty to the deal regarding the exit of Russian shareholders from NIS (Naftna industrija Srbije)—the company that operates Serbia’s only oil refinery in Pančevo and, according to estimates, supplies about 80% of the country’s fuel needs.
This refers to negotiations regarding the acquisition by Hungary’s MOL of a 56.15% stake in NIS, which is owned by Gazprom entities (44.9% by Gazprom Neft and 11.3% by Gazprom). In January, MOL announced the signing of a Heads of Agreement regarding this deal, as well as that it is considering the participation of ADNOC (UAE) as a minority partner.
A key factor is the deadlines set by the U.S. OFAC. In March, MOL reported that it had received an extension from OFAC on its license to negotiate until May 22, 2026. At the same time, MOL is seeking extensions of specific permits allowing it to continue operations and import raw materials during the negotiations.
The issue of price remains sensitive: the terms of the deal have not been officially disclosed. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić previously mentioned a range of up to €1 billion for the 56.15% stake, while a number of media outlets and analytical publications cited higher estimates.
Why the Hungarian elections have become a risk factor
The deal itself is corporate in nature and requires regulatory approvals, specifically from OFAC and Serbia. However, the change in government in Hungary affects the political backdrop and the pace of decision-making. The new leader, Péter Magyar, has publicly stated his intention to form a government quickly (specifically citing May 5 as the start date), meaning just a few weeks before the May 22 deadline. In this scenario, any additional government-level reviews, disputes over the transparency of terms, or simply the restructuring of interagency coordination could cause delays.
The most likely baseline scenario is that the parties will try to meet the deadline or request an additional license extension from OFAC if they are close to the final closing. Market participants have already seen extensions in this situation.
The negative scenario is a protracted negotiation process without a clear resolution. In that case, the risks for NIS become not a legal abstraction but a matter of supply stability: the U.S. sanctions regime is specifically aimed at the exit of Russian majority owners, and any disruptions with licenses complicate the logistics and financing of raw material procurement and operations.
For Belgrade, this turns the issue into one of energy security. Serbian authorities have previously signaled their interest in increasing the state’s stake in NIS, and if the situation worsens, tougher decisions regarding the ownership structure may be necessary to remove the company from under sanctions pressure and prevent a shock to the fuel market.
https://t.me/relocationrs/2628
According to Serbian Economist, Hungarian oil and gas company MOL has received approval from U.S. authorities to continue negotiations on the acquisition of a controlling stake in Serbian NIS until May 22, 2026. This was reported by Reuters, citing a statement from MOL.
The negotiations concern the purchase of shares held by Russian shareholders—Gazprom Neft and Gazprom, which own 44.9% and 11.3% of NIS, respectively. Initially, the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) set a deadline of March 24 for finalizing the Russian companies’ exit from NIS’s capital, but this deadline has now been extended to May 22.
In January, MOL signed a binding agreement with the Russian shareholders to purchase their stakes in NIS, and the Emirati company ADNOC is set to acquire a minority stake as part of this deal. The Serbian government retains a 29.9% stake in the company.
For Serbia, the issue of changing NIS’s ownership is of strategic importance, as the company remains the country’s largest fuel supplier and the operator of the only oil refinery in Pančevo. Last week, the U.S. also extended the sanctions waiver for NIS itself until April 17 so that the company could continue importing crude oil.
https://t.me/relocationrs/2499
According to Serbian Economist, Serbian oil and gas company NIS has announced the signing of a contract to import the first batches of oil via the Adriatic oil pipeline (JANAF) for the refinery in Pančevo and preparations to resume processing after a shutdown in early December 2025 due to a shortage of raw materials amid sanctions restrictions.
According to Reuters, the first shipment includes about 85,000 tonnes of Iraqi Kirkuk oil, followed by a smaller batch of Libyan Es Sider. These volumes will keep the plant running for at least a few days, and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has predicted that the refinery will be able to resume operations on 17-18 January, with the production of petroleum products likely to begin on 25-26 January.
The resumption of imports became possible after the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued a temporary licence allowing NIS to continue operating until 23 January 2026. Reuters also reported that a separate licence had been issued to the operator JANAF to transport oil for NIS for the same period.
The situation surrounding NIS remains linked to negotiations on changes to its ownership structure. The US is awaiting negotiations on the withdrawal of the Russian share, with the deadline for the negotiation process extended to 24 March 2026, and Hungarian company MOL is named as one of the participants in the discussions.
NIS is a key player in the Serbian fuel market: the company owns the country’s only oil refinery (Pančevo) and the largest network of petrol stations, so any disruption in the supply of raw materials directly affects the balance of the petroleum products market and Serbia’s import needs.
According to Serbian Economist, the Office of Foreign Assets Control of the US Department of the Treasury (OFAC) has issued a temporary license to Serbian oil company NIS, controlled by Russian shareholders, to continue operating until January 23, 2026, said Serbian Minister of Mining and Energy Dubravka Djedovic-Handanovic.
According to her, the decision means the resumption of operations at the Pančevo refinery after a 36-day pause. U.S. restrictions, which came into effect in the fall, had earlier blocked oil supplies via the refinery’s only crude import route – through Croatian pipeline operator JANAF.
NIS operates a refinery with a capacity of 4.8 million tons per year and the largest network of gas stations in Serbia (327 stations), providing about 80% of fuel consumption in the domestic market.
Earlier OFAC gave NIS a deadline of March 24 to negotiate the sale of the Russian owners’ stake; in the company’s capital structure Gazprom owns 11.3%, Gazprom Neft – 44.9%, the Serbian state owns 29.9%. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic reported that Gazprom was in talks with Hungary’s MOL about a possible deal.
https://t.me/relocationrs/2042
According to the Serbian Economist, Serbia has not received a special license from the U.S. OFAC to continue the work of the company NIS, which has fallen under U.S. sanctions. This was announced by Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic. He also said that Serbia has decided to completely shut down the Pančevo refinery.
Since November 25, the NIS refinery has been operating in a reduced circulation mode due to a shortage of oil. Vucic noted that NIS will decide when to complete the shutdown of the refinery.
Earlier it was reported that the Serbian parliament is preparing an amendment that would allow Serbia to become the owner of NIS. A possible sale of 56.15% of NIS shares to Hungarian partners is also being considered.
NIS, a subsidiary of Gazprom Neft, was included in the US SDN List in 2025.
https://t.me/relocationrs/1865
According to Serbian Economist, Naftna industrija Srbije (NIS) is considering the possible sale of a controlling stake (56.15%) to the Russian side of ADNOC from the United Arab Emirates.
According to the publication, there has been no official confirmation from either the Russian side or ADNOC. However, experts believe that the option of selling to an “Arab player” is the most likely and logical. Among other contenders mentioned is the Hungarian MOL Group.
The head of the Serbian parliament’s energy committee, Milun Babic, pointed out that a deal with an Arab investor is preferable to the risk of supply blockages due to sanctions, but he said that the best option would be to transfer management to the Russian side for 20 years. “Selling to the Arabs is a possible option… but it is not ideal,” he said.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, in turn, confirmed that Russia is negotiating the sale of the NIS stake to three investors and that the Serbian side will not be able to exercise its right of first refusal.
If the deal goes through, experts see the following possible consequences for Serbia:
1) increased investment in the modernization of the oil industry, including possible expansion of production and logistics in the region;
2) increased geopolitical independence from Russian assets and reduced risk of sanctions;
3) strengthening of the country’s role as an energy hub in the Balkans.
According to expert Branimir Jovanovic, the new investor could export oil from Serbia and the region or invest in the modernization of the refinery in Pančevo.
Naftna industrija Srbije (NIS) is Serbia’s largest oil and gas company, controlled by Russia’s Gazprom Neft. The company’s authorized capital and strategic importance make it a key element of the country’s energy sector. The transfer of shares will affect Serbia’s future management, investments, and international relations.
Source: https://t.me/relocationrs/1793
