The production of grains and oilseeds in 2022 in Ukraine is preliminary estimated at 53.3 million tons, which is 51% lower than the record figure of the previous season, due to the Russian military invasion and ongoing hostilities, this year’s harvest may be the lowest in the last 10 -15 years.
“We estimate the total production of grains and oilseeds in 2022 at 53.3 million tons, which is 51% lower than the record figure of the previous season. At the same time, for grains, the harvest may be minimal over the past 15 years, and for oilseeds – over the last decade,” such harvest estimates are given on the website of the APK-Inform agency on Thursday.
The organization clarified that for the 2022 harvest, the area under winter grain crops decreased by 7% compared to last year – to 7.6 million hectares, which practically coincides with the figure for 2020. At the same time, the area under spring grain and leguminous crops, the sowing of which began this month, due to the occupation of part of the territories and hostilities by Russian invaders, can be reduced much more significantly – by 39%, to 4.7 million hectares.
In turn, the total area sown with oilseeds in Ukraine in 2022 may be about 6.8-6.9 million hectares, taking into account the areas already sown under winter rapeseed.
At the same time, a change in the structure of oilseed crops is expected. In particular, the share of sunflower acreage is projected to decrease from 73% in 2021 to 61% in 2022, while the share of rapeseed will increase from 12% to 21%, and soybean from 15% to 17%.
It is specified that as a result of hostilities, the sowing campaign in nine regions of the country looks very dangerous: Chernihiv, Sumy, Kiev, Kharkov, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye, Kherson and Nikolaev. Partially risky areas for sowing are currently noted in Zhytomyr, Poltava and Dnepropetrovsk regions.
The agency emphasized that in addition to a decrease in the area under crops, a general decrease in crop yields is expected in Ukraine due to the limited access of farmers to the necessary resources, such as fuel, fertilizers, plant protection products, etc. However, even the projected volumes of crop production are enough to meet the domestic food needs of Ukraine .
As reported, as of March 25, Ukraine sowed 150,000 hectares of agricultural land in regions where there are no active hostilities against the troops of the Russian invaders.
Due to the military aggression of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, a decrease in the acreage of high-margin crops (sunflower and corn) is expected this season, while increasing the acreage of crops that are easier to produce, but important in terms of food security, peas, barley and oats.
In 2021, during the spring sowing season, Ukraine sowed 14 million hectares of agricultural land, including sunflower – 6.5 million hectares, corn – 5.3 million hectares, barley – 1.35 million hectares, peas – 0.242 million hectares, sugar beet 0.227 million ha, oats – 0.194 million ha, spring wheat – 0.176 million ha.
Exports ofgrains and oilseeds in the 2020/2021 marketing year (MY, September-August) will amount to 46.8 million tonnes, which is a quarter less than in the record 2019/2020 MY.
According to the website of the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA), citing data from grain traders, the maximum export volume of these crops in the current season will not exceed the values specified in the annexes to the memorandum between the Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture and market participants.
The UGA clarified that the rate of grain export in the current MY is significantly lower than last year’s indicators, which is due to the conjuncture of world markets.
The association expects that wheat exports in the current season will not exceed 16 million tonnes, which is significantly lower than the volume specified in the appendix to the memorandum of 17.5 million tonnes. Corn exports in the current season will not exceed 22 million tonnes, which is also below the limit set in the annex to the memorandum – 24 million tonnes.
As reported, Ukraine exported 37.71 million tonnes ofgrains and legumes since the beginning of 2020/2021 MY, which is 23.6% less than on the same date of the previous MY.
According to the information and analytical portal of the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine, to date, 14.78 million tonnes of wheat, 18.19 million tonnes of corn, 4.12 million tonnes of barley and 102,200 tonnes of flour have been exported.
The harvest of grains and oilseeds in the 2021/2020 marketing year may exceed 100 million tonnes, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Roman Leshchenko said on Monday.
“If the amount of precipitation is at the same level as we see in May, then there will be an increase in soybeans as well,” the minister told Interfax-Ukraine.
According to him, the timely implementation of the complex of spring field work by the farmers makes it possible to assess the volume of the harvest in the current season with “healthy optimism.”
“We have all the prerequisites for setting an absolute record this year – the harvest of grain and oilseeds [at the level of] 100 million tonnes,” he said at a press conference in Kyiv.
As reported, the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) estimated the growth of the potential harvest of grains and oilseeds in the 2021/2022 marketing year by 14.5% compared to 2020/21, to 96.25 million tonnes thanks to good wintering of winter crops and favorable weather conditions.
Export proceeds from the supply of oilseeds from Ukraine in the 2019/2020 marketing year (MY, September-August) increased by 10% and amounted to $ 7.32 billion, CEO of UkrAgroConsult Serhiy Feofilov has said.
“The economy of Ukraine from export of oilseeds in September-August received more than $ 7.3 billion, which is 10% more compared to the previous season. We see an 11% increase in sunflower oil (in terms of export earnings),” he said during the international conference Black Sea Grain & Oil Trade 2020 in Kyiv.
So, according to him, last season Ukraine exported sunflower oil for $ 4.95 billion (6.8 million tonnes against 6.06 million tonnes in the 2018/2019 MY).
The director general of UkrAgroConsult also said that export of grains in the first two months of the season (July-August) is practically at the level of the previous season.
“This shows that despite the consequences of the coronavirus crisis, export continues and develops,” he said.
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) in its September report lowered the forecast for the gross harvest of grains and oilseeds this season from 96.7 to 95.6 million tonnes, exports from 58.4 to 56.3 million tonnes due to unfavorable weather conditions for the harvest of late crops in some regions of Ukraine.
“Even after lowering the forecast for the harvest, its figure may be the second in terms of gross harvest after last year’s record – 98 million tonnes, the same can be said about the possible export volumes,” the association said in a press release posted on its website on Wednesday.
So, this year, according to UGA, farmers harvested 26.6 million tonnes of wheat (UGA forecast was at 26.8 million tonnes) and 8.3 million tonnes of barley (UGA predicted 8.2 million tonnes). According to the association’s forecasts, wheat exports this season may reach 17.5 million tonnes (in accordance with the signed memorandum), and barley may reach 4.5 million tonnes.
In addition, UGA slightly lowered its forecast for the corn harvest this season in the September report compared to the previous forecast in August from 36.4 million tonnes to 35.3 million tonnes due to unfavorable dry weather conditions in the southern and partly central regions of Ukraine.
According to UGA experts, farmers will not harvest corn for grain on an area of 205,000 hectares, which is 3.8% of the total area under corn. In other regions, which are the main corn producers, the harvest situation is satisfactory and good, and they are not experiencing critical losses.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in March raised its forecast for the export of major oilseeds from Ukraine in the 2019/2020 marketing year (MY, September-August) by 460,000 million tonnes compared to the forecast in February, to 5.51 million tonnes. According to a March report released on the USDA’s website, the forecast for rapeseeds export was increased by 200,000 tonnes to 3 million tonnes, soybean exports by 310,000 tonnes to 2.45 million tonnes.
At the same time, the U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its forecast for oilseeds processing by 200,000 tonnes to 17.42 million tonnes, meal exports by 110,000 tonnes to 5.77 million tonnes, and vegetable oil exports by 60,000 tonnes, to 6.6 million tonnes.
The USDA forecasts that in the 2019/2020 MY exports of sunflower oil from Ukraine will be at the level of 6.2 million tonnes, sunflower meal at 4.9 million tonnes, sunflower at 60,000 tonnes.
In addition, the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts a sunflower crop in Ukraine at 16 million tonnes, production of sunflower meal at 6.5 million tonnes, sunflower oil at 6.78 million tonnes.
