Exports ofgrains and oilseeds in the 2020/2021 marketing year (MY, September-August) will amount to 46.8 million tonnes, which is a quarter less than in the record 2019/2020 MY.
According to the website of the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA), citing data from grain traders, the maximum export volume of these crops in the current season will not exceed the values specified in the annexes to the memorandum between the Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture and market participants.
The UGA clarified that the rate of grain export in the current MY is significantly lower than last year’s indicators, which is due to the conjuncture of world markets.
The association expects that wheat exports in the current season will not exceed 16 million tonnes, which is significantly lower than the volume specified in the appendix to the memorandum of 17.5 million tonnes. Corn exports in the current season will not exceed 22 million tonnes, which is also below the limit set in the annex to the memorandum – 24 million tonnes.
As reported, Ukraine exported 37.71 million tonnes ofgrains and legumes since the beginning of 2020/2021 MY, which is 23.6% less than on the same date of the previous MY.
According to the information and analytical portal of the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine, to date, 14.78 million tonnes of wheat, 18.19 million tonnes of corn, 4.12 million tonnes of barley and 102,200 tonnes of flour have been exported.
The harvest of grains and oilseeds in the 2021/2020 marketing year may exceed 100 million tonnes, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Roman Leshchenko said on Monday.
“If the amount of precipitation is at the same level as we see in May, then there will be an increase in soybeans as well,” the minister told Interfax-Ukraine.
According to him, the timely implementation of the complex of spring field work by the farmers makes it possible to assess the volume of the harvest in the current season with “healthy optimism.”
“We have all the prerequisites for setting an absolute record this year – the harvest of grain and oilseeds [at the level of] 100 million tonnes,” he said at a press conference in Kyiv.
As reported, the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) estimated the growth of the potential harvest of grains and oilseeds in the 2021/2022 marketing year by 14.5% compared to 2020/21, to 96.25 million tonnes thanks to good wintering of winter crops and favorable weather conditions.
Export proceeds from the supply of oilseeds from Ukraine in the 2019/2020 marketing year (MY, September-August) increased by 10% and amounted to $ 7.32 billion, CEO of UkrAgroConsult Serhiy Feofilov has said.
“The economy of Ukraine from export of oilseeds in September-August received more than $ 7.3 billion, which is 10% more compared to the previous season. We see an 11% increase in sunflower oil (in terms of export earnings),” he said during the international conference Black Sea Grain & Oil Trade 2020 in Kyiv.
So, according to him, last season Ukraine exported sunflower oil for $ 4.95 billion (6.8 million tonnes against 6.06 million tonnes in the 2018/2019 MY).
The director general of UkrAgroConsult also said that export of grains in the first two months of the season (July-August) is practically at the level of the previous season.
“This shows that despite the consequences of the coronavirus crisis, export continues and develops,” he said.
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) in its September report lowered the forecast for the gross harvest of grains and oilseeds this season from 96.7 to 95.6 million tonnes, exports from 58.4 to 56.3 million tonnes due to unfavorable weather conditions for the harvest of late crops in some regions of Ukraine.
“Even after lowering the forecast for the harvest, its figure may be the second in terms of gross harvest after last year’s record – 98 million tonnes, the same can be said about the possible export volumes,” the association said in a press release posted on its website on Wednesday.
So, this year, according to UGA, farmers harvested 26.6 million tonnes of wheat (UGA forecast was at 26.8 million tonnes) and 8.3 million tonnes of barley (UGA predicted 8.2 million tonnes). According to the association’s forecasts, wheat exports this season may reach 17.5 million tonnes (in accordance with the signed memorandum), and barley may reach 4.5 million tonnes.
In addition, UGA slightly lowered its forecast for the corn harvest this season in the September report compared to the previous forecast in August from 36.4 million tonnes to 35.3 million tonnes due to unfavorable dry weather conditions in the southern and partly central regions of Ukraine.
According to UGA experts, farmers will not harvest corn for grain on an area of 205,000 hectares, which is 3.8% of the total area under corn. In other regions, which are the main corn producers, the harvest situation is satisfactory and good, and they are not experiencing critical losses.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in March raised its forecast for the export of major oilseeds from Ukraine in the 2019/2020 marketing year (MY, September-August) by 460,000 million tonnes compared to the forecast in February, to 5.51 million tonnes. According to a March report released on the USDA’s website, the forecast for rapeseeds export was increased by 200,000 tonnes to 3 million tonnes, soybean exports by 310,000 tonnes to 2.45 million tonnes.
At the same time, the U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its forecast for oilseeds processing by 200,000 tonnes to 17.42 million tonnes, meal exports by 110,000 tonnes to 5.77 million tonnes, and vegetable oil exports by 60,000 tonnes, to 6.6 million tonnes.
The USDA forecasts that in the 2019/2020 MY exports of sunflower oil from Ukraine will be at the level of 6.2 million tonnes, sunflower meal at 4.9 million tonnes, sunflower at 60,000 tonnes.
In addition, the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts a sunflower crop in Ukraine at 16 million tonnes, production of sunflower meal at 6.5 million tonnes, sunflower oil at 6.78 million tonnes.
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) in its August forecast predicts growth in grain and oilseeds production in the country in the 2019/20 agricultural year to 95.2 million tonnes (the previous forecast had 94.7 million tonnes), and exports – to 58.2 million tonnes (56.9 million tonnes).
According to the information on the association’s website, in the context of crops, changes relate to: wheat production is projected at 27.7 million tonnes (against 28.9 million tonnes in the previous forecast), exports – 21 million tonnes (20 million tonnes); barley production – 8.6 million tonnes (8.4 million tonnes), exports – 4.7 million tonnes (4.9 million tonnes); corn production – 34.5 million tonnes (32.2 million tonnes), export – 27 million tonnes (26 million tonnes).
As reported, the Ministry of Agricultural Policy and Food of Ukraine predicts an increase in the grain harvest in 2019 under favorable conditions up to 70.8 million tonnes compared with 70.1 million tonnes in 2018.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicts a grain harvest in Ukraine this year at 72.6 million tonnes, exports – 51.4 million tonnes.
