According to Fixygen, global prediction markets continue to grow rapidly and are becoming one of the most prominent segments at the intersection of cryptocurrencies, trading, and sports betting. During the first weekend of the new NFL season, the total trading volume on the largest prediction markets reached at least $5.83 billion, according to data from Aldrin Research cited by Barron’s.
The bulk of the trading volume came from the U.S.-regulated platform Kalshi—about $4.89 billion over the weekend.
On Sunday alone, the total volume of prediction markets was approximately $3.12 billion, and Kalshi set its own single-day record at $2.433 billion.
On the blockchain platform Polymarket, trading volume on Sunday totaled about $404 million.
Sports events were the main driver of this growth. According to researchers’ estimates, about 91% of the weekend’s activity was related to sports and combination contracts.
At the same time, prediction markets are gradually expanding far beyond elections and sporting events. Contracts on interest rates, inflation, commodity prices, cryptocurrencies, and macroeconomic indicators are already being actively traded on these platforms.
The European regulator ESMA is taking note of the sector’s growth. In July, the agency noted that some event contracts may fall under existing restrictions on binary options, while some products may also be considered by national regulators as bets.
In its September risk review, ESMA also pointed out potential issues regarding the manipulation of prediction markets and the use of insider information.
Thus, prediction markets are following a path similar to that of the early cryptocurrency market: rapid growth in trading volume is gradually attracting the attention of traditional financial regulators.
CRYPTOCURRENCY, KALSHI, Polymarket, Prediction market, TRADING
Kalshi recorded $37.17 billion in trading volume in August, down 7.3% from July’s $40.1 billion. Polymarket, together with the U.S. platform, accounted for an additional $8.16 billion, compared to $12.89 billion the previous month—a 36.7% decline, according to the Fixygen portal.
At the same time, after record activity in the summer, trading volume fell by 14.5% compared with July. This was the first monthly decline in approximately a year, according to data from The Block.
Kalshi accounted for $37.17 billion in turnover in August, which was 7.3% less than July’s $40.1 billion. Polymarket together with the U.S. platform generated another $8.16 billion compared with $12.89 billion a month earlier, meaning volume declined by 36.7%.
However, even after the decline, the August market remained significantly larger than in May, when combined turnover amounted to around $25.66 billion.
This segment is developing especially rapidly within traditional brokerage platforms.
Robinhood reported on September 8 that in the second quarter alone, 13.6 billion event contracts were traded through its service, while in the first eight months of 2026 more than 30 billion contracts were traded. Since the launch of the business about two years ago, Robinhood clients have entered into more than 45 billion such contracts.
The company is expanding the number of venues through which trades are executed. In addition to Kalshi and ForecastEx, Robinhood uses Rothera, and from September 8 began routing some contracts to the Crypto.com platform through CFTC-regulated infrastructure.
The company is also launching a separate prediction markets section for the U.S. midterm elections and expanding its offering of contracts on American football.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell contracts whose payouts depend on the occurrence of a specific event — the result of a sports match, an election, an economic indicator or another measurable event.
In terms of their economic structure, such instruments lie between financial derivatives and traditional betting, which simultaneously ensures their rapid growth and creates regulatory disputes.
In the United States, more than ten states have already taken legal or administrative action against Kalshi or Polymarket, primarily over sports contracts.
CRYPTOCURRENCY, KALSHI, Polymarket, PREDICTION MARKETS, ROBINHOOD
The cryptocurrency forecasting platform Polymarket has launched a betting platform that will allow you to place bets on whether Donald Trump will be able to end the war in Ukraine in 90 days if he wins the 2024 US presidential election.
A “yes” bet requires two conditions to be met:
Donald Trump wins the US presidential election.
Ukraine and Russia declare a truce, ceasefire, or conclude an agreement to resolve the current conflict at any time from the time the Associated Press announces Trump’s victory until April 19, 2025 (23:59 EST).
At the time of publication, the probability of this scenario is 46%.
Polymarket is an open market prediction platform where users can place bets on the outcomes of various events, including political, economic, and social issues.
