According to Fixygen, global prediction markets continue to grow rapidly and are becoming one of the most prominent segments at the intersection of cryptocurrencies, trading, and sports betting. During the first weekend of the new NFL season, the total trading volume on the largest prediction markets reached at least $5.83 billion, according to data from Aldrin Research cited by Barron’s.
The bulk of the trading volume came from the U.S.-regulated platform Kalshi—about $4.89 billion over the weekend.
On Sunday alone, the total volume of prediction markets was approximately $3.12 billion, and Kalshi set its own single-day record at $2.433 billion.
On the blockchain platform Polymarket, trading volume on Sunday totaled about $404 million.
Sports events were the main driver of this growth. According to researchers’ estimates, about 91% of the weekend’s activity was related to sports and combination contracts.
At the same time, prediction markets are gradually expanding far beyond elections and sporting events. Contracts on interest rates, inflation, commodity prices, cryptocurrencies, and macroeconomic indicators are already being actively traded on these platforms.
The European regulator ESMA is taking note of the sector’s growth. In July, the agency noted that some event contracts may fall under existing restrictions on binary options, while some products may also be considered by national regulators as bets.
In its September risk review, ESMA also pointed out potential issues regarding the manipulation of prediction markets and the use of insider information.
Thus, prediction markets are following a path similar to that of the early cryptocurrency market: rapid growth in trading volume is gradually attracting the attention of traditional financial regulators.
CRYPTOCURRENCY, KALSHI, Polymarket, Prediction market, TRADING
