According to Fixygen, Bitcoin’s volatility remains at historically low levels, despite significant fluctuations in flows into cryptocurrency ETFs, shifting expectations regarding Fed interest rates, and sharp price swings on individual trading days.
An analysis by Glassnode shows that one of the most important factors behind the decline in monthly realized volatility has been the increase in the share of Bitcoin held by long-term holders. This metric better explains changes in volatility than the cryptocurrency’s market capitalization, open interest in derivatives, funding rates, or trading volume, according to The Block.
In other words, it is no longer just the market size that matters, but also the structure of BTC holders.
Bitcoin, which previously circulated largely among speculative investors and traders, is increasingly concentrated among long-term holders, ETFs, companies, and other participants who trade much less frequently.
This may reduce the number of coins constantly involved in trading and decrease the market’s sensitivity to short-term fluctuations in demand.
At the same time, more than 71% of the total Bitcoin supply is currently in profit, according to data cited by Bitfinex analysts.
This figure is approaching the historical average of approximately 74.7%. Analysts note that a sustained move above this level in previous cycles has often coincided with the market’s transition from a bear market to a more sustained bull market.
At the same time, the high proportion of coins in profit has a dual effect. On the one hand, it reflects an improvement in the financial situation of Bitcoin holders. On the other hand, it creates a potential supply that could enter the market in the event of further price increases, as investors begin to take profits.
On September 12, Bitcoin is trading around $77,000, remaining well below its 2025 all-time high.
At the same time, the market infrastructure itself is changing. Spot ETFs have become one of the largest channels of institutional demand, public companies are building multibillion-dollar Bitcoin reserves, and the share of long-term holdings is increasing.
This is gradually bringing Bitcoin closer to traditional financial assets in terms of investor structure, although the cryptocurrency’s absolute volatility remains significantly higher than that of most major stock indices or government bonds.
According to Bitfinex analysts, the current situation is, for now, more consistent with consolidation with upside potential than with a confirmed new bullish breakout.
Thus, the shift in Bitcoin’s ownership structure may gradually alter the familiar pattern of cryptocurrency cycles. If an increasing portion of the supply remains held by ETFs, corporations, and long-term investors, future cycles may become less volatile, although it is still too early to completely rule out significant price fluctuations for Bitcoin.
