State-owned PrivatBank and Oschadbank topped the list of 43 profitable banks in August with net profits of UAH 3.21 billion and UAH 2.85 billion, respectively.
According to the data published by the National Bank of Ukraine on its website, they worked with a profit despite the formation of an additional UAH 7.71 billion and UAH 0.62 billion in reserves, respectively.
The main reason for such a significant profit of both state-owned banks was the result obtained in August from operations with financial assets and liabilities – UAH 7.49 billion and UAH 2.95 billion, respectively.
In addition, in August, PrivatBank showed an increase in total assets by UAH 14.95 billion, and Oschadbank – by UAH 8.22 billion, while the assets of the state-owned Ukreximbank immediately decreased by UAH 31.23 billion, which is probably due to the government receiving through it part of external financing and its spending.
Among other leaders in terms of profit in August were UkrSibbank – UAH 625.0 million, Citibank – UAH 444.4 million, Raiffeisen Bank – UAH 267.7 million, Universal Bank (monobank) – UAH 210.7 million, Ukrgasbank – UAH 143.0 UAH million and OTP Bank – UAH 131.4 million.
Alfa-Bank and the state-owned Ukreximbank showed the largest losses in August – UAH 1.357 billion and UAH 1.103 billion, respectively. During the month, these banks formed additional reserves of UAH 1.674 billion and UAH 0.776 billion, respectively. In addition, Alfa-Bank lost another UAH 1.51 billion of total assets in August.
Credit-Dnepr Bank – UAH 181.8 million, Idea Bank – UAH 110.7 million, Globus Bank and Kredobank – UAH 87 million and UAH 86 million, respectively, were also unprofitable.
According to the results of eight months of this year, PrivatBank remains the most profitable – UAH 14.15 billion, and Oschadbank took the second place due to the August result – UAH 2.34 billion.
Next come three banks with foreign capital: Raiffeisen Bank – UAH 1.87 billion, UkrSibbank – UAH 1.7 billion and Citibank – UAH 1.12 billion, followed by two private Ukrainian banks: Universal Bank – UAH 0.65 billion and Bank “Pivdenny” – UAH 0.34 billion.
The largest losses in January-August were shown by Alfa-Bank – UAH 4.88 billion and two state-owned banks: Ukreximbank – UAH 4.41 billion and Ukrgasbank – UAH 3.40 billion.
Rounding out the top five unprofitable are two banks with foreign capital: ProCredit Bank – UAH 1.29 billion and OTP Bank – UAH 0.44 billion.
In general, over the eight months of this year, 42 banks operated with a net profit, while 25 – with a net loss.
The total net profit of all banks amounted to UAH 8.43 billion, including UAH 5.1 billion in August, but excluding PrivatBank and Oschadbank, the financial result of the banking system will be negative – UAH 8.05 billion and UAH 0.95 billion, respectively.
According to the data of the National Bank, in August, the portfolios of government bonds of all banks decreased, most of all – Oschadbank: by UAH 3.05 billion, while Universal Bank – by UAH 1.99 billion, FUIB – by UAH 1.73 billion. In total, the banking portfolio of government bonds in August decreased by UAH 23.83 billion.
The international rating agency Fitch Ratings has affirmed the long-term issuer default rating (IDR) in foreign and national currencies and the senior unsecured rating of Metinvest Mining and Metallurgical Group at ‘ССС’, the recovery rating is ‘RR4’.
“Metinvest’s ratings reflect the company’s sufficient funding over the next six months, supported by cash flow generation from its international asset base, few significant short-term maturities and existing cash position. This also reflects increased operational risk for the company following the military invasion Russia to Ukraine, including the occupation or damage of some of its assets, as well as severe logistical restrictions,” Fitch explained in a press release on Tuesday.
At the same time, it is noted that about a third of the company’s EBITDA in 2022 will be generated by its international assets.
The ‘CCC’ rating reflects Metinvest’s increased operational and financial risks. Ferrexpo plc has a higher ‘CCC+’ rating due to its lack of financial debt. Metinvest’s business profile benefits from upstream assets outside of Ukraine, maintaining its rating above Interpipe Holdings plc (CCC-), whose assets are wholly concentrated in Ukraine,” the agency explains.
Analysts predict that Metinvest’s sales will be around 50% of 2022 levels, with a gradual recovery between 2023 and 2025.
In addition, experts suggest that Metinvest will be considered an operating company in the event of bankruptcy and will be reorganized, but not liquidated.
According to analysts, Metinvest has limited liquidity: the company keeps most of its cash in offshore zones. The company continues to generate significant cash flows from its coal assets in the US, as well as its steel mills in Europe, and its iron ore and steel assets in Ukraine. This has helped offset the outflow of working capital in recent months.
Metinvest has minor upcoming maturities in 2022: its next significant maturity is $176 million due in April 2023 in connection with the redemption of its bonds, according to a press release.
As Yury Ryzhenkov, general director of Metinvest, said, the company is servicing its credit obligations, including Eurobonds, and intends to continue doing so in the future.
“We have not declared force majeure on debt. Unlike many Ukrainian issuers, we continue to service our entire loan portfolio, including planned payments on Eurobonds. And I think that we should have enough strength to do this,” he said. he.
Metinvest is a vertically integrated group of mining and metallurgical enterprises. Its enterprises are located in Ukraine – in Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk regions, in European countries. In particular, in Bulgaria there is a Promet Steel plant with a capacity of 500 thousand tons of rolled metal per year, in Italy – Metinvest Trametal and Ferriera Valsider with a total capacity of 1.2 million tons per year. In the UK, the company owns the Spartan UK plant, which can produce 200 thousand tons of rolled steel per year.
The main shareholders of the holding are the SKM group (71.24%) and Smart Holding (23.76%), which jointly manage it.
Metinvest Holding LLC is the management company of the Metinvest group.
The international rating agency Fitch Ratings has raised the long-term foreign currency issuer default rating (IDR) of JSC Ukrzaliznytsia (UZ) from “C” to “CC”.
The rating action follows Fitch’s upgrade of Ukraine’s sovereign ratings to ‘CC’ on 17 August 2022. This rating action has a direct impact on UZ’s IDRs as it is considered a state-related entity.
It indicates that the strategic importance of the company for the state increased after the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war in February 2022. Government incentive to support UZ remains strong, with the state providing non-refundable cash grants (UAH 10 billion) to support the company’s core operations. However, EP’s financial resources and cash flows depend more than before the war on the financial performance of the Ukrainian state, the agency also believes.
The rating action did not affect UZ’s standalone credit profile at ‘ccc’.
UZ’s Eurobond ratings are in line with its Long-term foreign currency IDR. Fitch clarifies that Eurobonds accounted for 75% of EP’s debt at the end of 2021.
Ukrainian metallurgical enterprises in July this year reduced steel production by 85% compared to the same period in 2021, to 281,000 tonnes, taking 35th place in the ranking of 64 countries – the world’s main producers of this product, compiled by the World Steel Association (Worldsteel).
According to Worldsteel data released on Tuesday, in July 2022, a decrease in steel production was recorded in most countries of the top ten, except for India and Iran, versus July 2021.
The top ten steel-producing countries in July are as follows: China (81.430 million tonnes, a decrease of 6.4% compared to July 2021), India (10.070 million tonnes, an increase of 3.2%), Japan (7.326 million tonnes , less by 8.5%), the USA (7.002 million tonnes, less by 6.4%), South Korea (6.086 million tonnes, less by 0.6%), Russia (5.5 million tonnes, less by 13.2%), Germany (2.972 million tonnes, less by 2%), Brazil (2.823 million tonnes, less by 8.7%), Turkey (2.684 million tonnes, less by 20.7%) and Iran (2.012 million tonnes, an increase of 34.1%).
Ukraine is in 35th position with 281,000 tonnes of steel (85% less by July 2021). In June this year, the country produced 295,000 tonnes, in May – 308,000 tonnes, in April – 281,000 tonnes, in March – 200,000 tonnes, in February – 1.374 million tonnes, and in January – 1.851 million tonnes.
In general, in July this year, steel production in the world decreased by 6.5% compared to the same period last year, to 149.277 million tonnes.
Over seven months of 2022, the top ten steel-producing countries look like this: China (609.280 million tonnes, a decrease of 6.4%), India (73.305 million tonnes, an increase of 8%), Japan (53.322 million tonnes, a decrease of 4. 9%), the USA (48.036 million tonnes, less by 3%), the Russian Federation (41.432 million tonnes, decrease by 7%), South Korea (39.918 million tonnes, less by 3.4%), Germany (22.532 million tonnes, less by 5.1%), Turkey (21.639 million tonnes, a decrease of 6.9%), Brazil (20.285 million tonnes, a decrease of 3.5%) and Iran (17.394 million tonnes, an increase of 3.7%).
Ukraine, following the results of seven months of this year, took 20th place with the smelting of 4.820 million tonnes of steel (less by 62.1%).
In general, in January-July 2022, some 64 countries produced 1.102 billion tonnes of steel, which is 5.4% less than in the same period in 2021.
S&P Global Ratings raised its foreign currency long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings on Ukraine to ‘CCC+/C’ from ‘SD/SD’ and the long-term issue rating on the restructured foreign currency bonds to ‘CCC+’ from ‘D’ on August 19.
“The rating action follows the completion of Ukraine’s eurobond restructuring,” S&P said in a press release on its website.
In addition, S&P said that the outlook on the long-term ratings is stable. The agency affirmed our local currency sovereign ratings at ‘CCC+/C’ and raised the national scale rating to ‘uaBB’ from ‘uaBB-‘.
“The stable outlook balances our view of the reduction in Ukraine’s government debt service requirements and our expectation of steady international financial support against risks to Ukraine’s economy, external balances, public finances, and financial stability stemming from the ongoing war,” S&P said.
Its experts said that As a result, Ukraine’s foreign-currency debt repayments have declined by roughly 40% over 2022-2024 to about $10 billion from $16 billion before the restructuring. Repayments now primarily comprise payments on official debt–mostly owed to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development–and foreign-currency domestic-law bonds, held primarily domestically, including by state-owned banks.
“As a result, the near-term risks to the government’s liquidity position and, more broadly, its capacity to honor commercial debt, including in foreign currency, appear manageable,” S&P said.
At the same time, given the ongoing conflict with Russia, Ukraine’s ability to stay current on its debt is highly dependent on factors largely outside of government control.
The agency estimated Ukraine’s real GDP will contract by 40% in 2022 on the back of collapsing exports, consumption, and investment. “Given substantial damage to physical and human capital, Ukraine’s medium-term growth prospects are uncertain and hinge on regaining a level of territorial integrity and access to the Black Sea, alongside sizable reconstruction efforts,” S&P said.
In S&P latest projections, the 2022 fiscal deficit will be at least 20% of GDP, compared with 3.5% before the conflict.
The agency said that one of the key assumptions behind its rating is that donor fund disbursements, primarily from the United States and EU, will continue in the coming months. S&P added that although the timing and details of the new IMF program remain to be seen, if approved it could further ease government financing pressures, and support confidence and macroeconomic stability.
Regarding the hryvnia exchange rate, S&P expects hryvnia to weaken further, adding to inflationary pressures. Speaking of the quality of banks’ assets, it said the outlook for them challenging, despite Ukraine’s banking system entered the war with adequate liquidity and capital buffers.
S&P added that it could lower the ratings in the next 12 months should the security outlook deteriorate, putting further pressure on Ukraine’s foreign exchange reserve position or the government’s administrative capacity, or resulting in much higher government gross financing needs than we currently anticipate. Absent an escalation of the conflict, material delays in foreign donor support could also lead to a downgrade, S&P said.
“We could raise the ratings if Ukraine’s security environment and medium-term economic outlook significantly improve,” S&P said, describing another scenario.
The rating agency Expert-Rating has affirmed the financial stability rating of KSG Agro SA (Switzerland), the holding company of the agricultural holding KSG Agro, at the level of “uaA+” on the national scale (corresponds to the BBB level on the international scale), the company said in a press release on Wednesday following an audit of its activities over the first half of the year.
According to the rating agency, this assessment of the company’s performance in the first half of 2021 is due to an increase in the level of coverage by its own capital of its debt obligations, the company’s profitability and a good level of its EBITDA to available loans.
“Throughout the period from June 30, 2020 to June 30, 2021, KSG Agro’s equity capital grew by 52.46%, up to $14.47 million, including due to its profitable activity and the reduction of retained loss. For the same period the liabilities of KSG Agro S.A. decreased by 12.52%, down to $55.7 million. The decrease in liabilities of KSG Agro S.A. was mainly due to selling three subsidiary companies in May, 2021,” the rating agency said in the report.
According to it, debt obligations of KSG Agro S.A. as of June 30, 2021, decreased by 12.52% compared to June 30, 2020, to $55.69 million. Long-term loans predominated in the structure of the company’s debt obligations as of that date: their volume increased by 7.52%, to $27.25 million, whiles the volume of short-term liabilities decreased by 54.19%, to $2.91 million.
The agency noted that EBITDA of KSG Agro SA in the first half of 2021 decreased by 22.49% compared to January-June 2020, to $2.69 million. At the same time, the ratio of EBITDA to its loan obligations as of June 30, 2021 decreased by 2.03 p.p. versus the same date last year, to 8.95%, which indicates the company’s ability to service its debt obligations.
The agency’s report indicated that the current macroeconomic situation in Ukraine did not significantly affect the sales volumes of the agricultural holding’s products, in particular, its revenue in the first half of 2021 decreased by 12.1% compared to the same period in 2020, to $6.81 million. During the specified period, the net profit of KSG Agro increased 48 times, to $13.7 million, mainly due to the sale of its subsidiaries.
“Therefore, according to the results of the first half of 2021, KSG Agro S.A. demonstrated high profitability indicators,” the rating agency said.
The agency recalled that the borrower or the particular debt instrument with rating “uaA+” is characterized by a high creditworthiness compared to other Ukrainian borrowers or debt instruments.
