Ukraine retains its status as the world’s largest exporter of sunflower oil, with a market share of about 33%, even as Russia actively expands its processing capacity and attempts to displace Ukrainian producers from their traditional markets.
This was reported by Maksym Kharchenko, an analyst at the information and analytical agency “UkrAgroConsult.”
“Russia is constantly breathing down our necks, ramping up processing and, in fact, hot on our heels. They have already partially managed to take advantage of the situation that arose after 2022 and capture our traditional market in India, where we were the No. 1 supplier. A similar picture is emerging in the markets of Turkey and Italy, where the competitor is significantly strengthening its presence,” he said at the Black Sea Grain.Kyiv conference on Wednesday.
According to the analyst, Ukraine’s sunflower processing industry remains critically dependent on exports, as domestic consumption does not exceed 300,000 tons. Despite an export potential of up to 6 million tons of oil per year, shipment volumes have fallen short of 5 million tons in recent years due to logistics and yield issues. It is noteworthy that in February 2026, the margin for sunflower processing in Ukraine remained at around 7%.
According to the agency’s data, the top 5 global sunflower oil exporters include Ukraine (33%), Russia (30%), Argentina (14%), as well as Turkey and Kazakhstan (5% each).
“Ukrainian oil remains in the premium segment. We expect supply in the Black Sea region to increase, which may put some downward pressure on prices. However, given the instability in the Middle East and the rising cost of soybean oil, our product will remain competitive,” says Kharchenko.
The expert added that competition is intensifying in other segments as well. In the new 2026/2027 season, Russia has increased its winter rapeseed acreage by more than 50%, targeting the Chinese market. Although Ukraine’s and Russia’s interests in the rapeseed oil market currently hardly overlap, UkrAgroConsult forecasts an inevitable clash of interests in the future.
At the same time, Ukraine is demonstrating rapid growth in rapeseed oil exports—shipment volumes are already twice as high as last year’s. Key buyers include EU countries (Poland, Spain, Italy) and Thailand. The situation is similar with soybeans: soybean meal exports have jumped by 50%, with Poland becoming the main market.
The agency noted that domestic processing was supported by the 10% export duty on rapeseed and soybeans introduced by Ukraine in 2025. This allowed raw materials to remain in the country and boosted sales of value-added products.
UkrAgroConsult expects oilseed production in Ukraine to continue growing in the 2026/2027 season. In particular, the sunflower harvest could reach 13.7 million tons. Kharchenko emphasized that despite the risks of war, the oilseed sector is recovering the fastest, and the acreage planted with these crops has already exceeded pre-2022 levels.
The Estonian Ministry of Internal Affairs has announced its readiness to review and, if necessary, tighten procedures for issuing temporary residence permits to citizens of Russia and Belarus. This was announced by Estonian Interior Minister Igor Taro in response to a parliamentary question about how individuals with an “unclear past” could obtain temporary residence in the country.
According to the Estonian Ministry of Internal Affairs, as of January 9, 2026, there were 7,797 Russian citizens and 1,476 Belarusian citizens with temporary residence permits living in the country (a total of 9,273 people).
Taro stressed that temporary residence permits are issued “in strict accordance with the law” and include verification of compliance with the conditions and the absence of grounds for refusal, but the process remains subject to assessment “in each specific case.” The minister added that the ministry will conduct an additional assessment of the criteria and practice of issuing temporary residence permits to citizens of the Russian Federation and Belarus and, if necessary, will tighten them.
At the same time, at the end of January, the Estonian Ministry of Internal Affairs announced that it was preparing a bill that would prohibit Russian and Belarusian citizens without permanent/long-term resident status from purchasing real estate in Estonia, as well as restrict transactions through companies acting on their behalf, citing security concerns. The minister said he expects the law to be passed by the summer.
As part of preparations for the next, 20th package of sanctions against Russia, the European Commission has proposed a complete ban on cryptocurrency transactions related to Russia in order to block channels for circumventing restrictions through digital assets, the Financial Times reported, citing an internal European Commission document.
According to the publication, the idea is to move from targeted measures against individual Russian crypto platforms to a broader approach—banning interaction with crypto services linked to Russia. The document also mentions initiatives to restrict transactions related to the digital ruble and measures against certain payment instruments that, according to Brussels, could be used to circumvent sanctions.
Earlier, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, presenting the parameters of the new package, announced her intention to tighten restrictions in the financial sector and take measures against cryptocurrencies and platforms that could be used to circumvent the sanctions regime. Reuters also reported that the package includes additional measures against crypto companies that help Russia circumvent restrictions.
The European Commission’s proposals must be unanimously agreed upon by EU member states. EU countries planned to begin discussing the new sanctions package in the coming days, with a target date of February 23.
Indian oil refineries have begun to avoid new purchases of Russian oil for delivery in March-April amid talks between New Delhi and Washington on a trade agreement, which the parties hope to finalize by March, Reuters reports, citing traders and industry sources.
According to the agency, Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum, and Reliance Industries are not accepting offers for Russian oil with shipments in March and April, although some refineries still have previously agreed deliveries for March. Reuters notes that most other refiners have also stopped new purchases from Russia.
At the same time, as Reuters emphasized earlier, Indian refineries have not received official instructions to stop importing Russian oil and, in the event of a policy change, would require a transition period to complete deals that are already in progress.
The context is the move by the US and India towards an interim trade agreement and the expectation of finalization in March. Against this backdrop, according to Reuters, the US has eased tariff pressure on India, and the American side has publicly linked this to New Delhi’s commitment to reduce purchases of Russian oil.
INDIA, OIL, refineries, RUSSIA
Non-resident investments in Bulgarian real estate in January-November 2025 resulted in a net outflow of €18.6 million, while Russia recorded a net outflow of €19.9 million, according to data from the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB).
According to BNB data, a year earlier (January-November 2024), the net outflow of non-resident investments in real estate was estimated at €11.6 million.
The net outflow indicator means that non-residents’ payments under real estate agreements in the country during the period under review were lower than receipts, i.e., sales exceeded purchases in value terms. At the same time, the fact that the total indicator for all non-residents (-€18.6 million) was less than the outflow for the Russian Federation (-€19.9 million) formally indicates a small aggregate net inflow of investment in real estate from other countries (about €1.3 million).
The BNB report, which is referenced by the media, does not provide a separate breakdown by other countries (including Ukraine) in terms of non-resident investment in real estate—only Russia is highlighted separately.
Noble Capital RSD LLC has filed a lawsuit in the US District Court for the District of Columbia against the Russian Federation, the Russian Ministry of Finance, the Bank of Russia, and the Russian National Wealth Fund, demanding recognition of obligations on sovereign bonds of the Russian Empire placed with investors in the US and recovery of at least $225.8 billion from the defendants. The court documents are available here: https://ia800707.us.archive.org/35/items/gov.uscourts.dcd.281398/gov.uscourts.dcd.281398.1.0.pdf
According to the text of the complaint, the plaintiff is asking the court to issue a declaratory judgment on the principal debt and interest (adjusted for gold), as well as to recognize the possibility of “setting off” of this amount against “blocked sovereign assets of the Russian Federation” in accounts at financial institutions where such assets may be located. Claims for interim measures have also been filed – a ban on the transfer or “mobilization” of blocked assets and the appointment of an equitable receiver for the purposes of recovery.
The case materials indicate that the defendants were notified of the lawsuit on October 1, 2025, and the court granted the Russian side an extension to respond to the lawsuit until January 29, 2026.
This approach (set-off through a private law dispute) can be seen as an attempt to shift the discussion of frozen assets from the realm of political confiscation to the realm of civil law mechanisms.
After February 24, 2022, some countries froze significant amounts of Russian sovereign assets. The European Union froze €210 billion, with Euroclear holding approximately €193 billion of these funds.
https://ia800707.us.archive.org/35/items/gov.uscourts.dcd.281398/gov.uscourts.dcd.281398.1.0.pdf
Noble Capital RSD LLC is a private company in the form of an LLC registered in the state of Delaware (USA). In court documents, it is described as the assignee and legal owner of a block of “sovereign bonds” placed in the US during the Russian Empire.
