The Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine, or GTSOU, has accepted a booking from Gazprom today to transport 42.4 million cubic meters of gas through the country against 42.4 mcm the previous gas day, data from GTSOU show.
Capacity was requested only through one of two entry points into Ukraine’s Gas Transmission System, the Sudzha metering station. A request was not accepted through the Sokhranivka metering station.
GTSOU has declared a force majeure about accepting gas for transit through Sokhranivka, claiming that it cannot control the Novopskov compressor station. Ukraine has also said that if gas continued to be fed from Russia to the Sokhranivka station, amounts would be reduced accordingly at the exit points from Ukraine’s gas transport system. The route through Sokhranivka had provided transit of more than 30 mcm of gas per day.
Gazprom believes there are no grounds for the force majeure or obstacles to continuing operations as before.
Electricity generated from wind power in Europe has dropped nearly 50% in the past two days, and the forecast for Thursday and Friday calls for practically calm weather, which requires utilizing other sources of energy.
Europe’s current temperatures are reaching all-time lows for the month of September, and could be the coldest for the past nine years at more than two degrees below last year’s figure. The forecast in Europe until the end of the month is light winds or calm weather.
Another cold spell has begun in Europe, and it should last at least a couple of days.
Electricity generated from wind power has dropped for the second consecutive day. Wind turbines generated 22.8% of the European Union’s energy balance on Monday, falling to 13.6% on Wednesday. Meantime, the figure is only 6.8% in Germany and 3.3% in the Netherlands, according to data from the WindEurope association. The average for September 2021 was 9.6%.
Spot prices for gas in Europe have risen sharply since Gazprom announced that Naftogaz Ukraine’s latest lawsuit could disrupt transit through Ukraine, adjusting to $2,005 per 1,000 cubic meters for the TTF day-ahead contract.
Prices in Asia are rising on the back of prices in Europe. The most expensive January futures on the JKM Platts index, which reflects spot market prices for gas delivered to Japan, South Korea, China and Taiwan, are $1,962 per 1,000 cubic meters.
The Nord Stream pipeline from Russia to Europe has been unable to restart as planned after maintenance, as oil leaks were found in Siemens turbines and this problem can only be fixed with factory repairs, Gazprom said. The Siemens turbines can only be repaired at a plant in Montreal, but Canada has imposed sanctions against the Russian gas giant.
Moreover, there were reports on Monday of a drop in gas pressure in two strings of Nord Stream 1 and in one string of Nord Stream 2 near the Danish island of Bornholm.
European liquefied natural gas (LNG) receiving terminals are operating at an average of 59% of capacity in September compared to 59% in August, data from Gas Infrastructure Europe indicate, and gas has been received from the EemsEnergy LNG floating receiving regasification terminal since September 16 in the Netherlands.
Europe is continuing to inject gas into underground gas storage (UGS) facilities, with the average level of reserves reaching the targeted 80% of capacity at the end of August. After reaching the target level, there has been some reduction in the injection rate.
Inventories in UGS facilities are currently at 88.17%, up just 0.2 percentage points from the last reporting date, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data.
Gas inventories in UGS facilities have currently exceeded 80% in Belgium, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, and Spain.
Meanwhile, Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary, and Latvia are lagging, with Austria showing a clear trend toward reaching the target level of reserves by October 1, and Bulgaria and Hungary have also intensified injection, though could be several days late to the prized line.
The gas reserves at the Incukalns UGS facility in Latvia are the lowest in the EU at around 53%. Pumping is 50% below the European average despite this UGS facility being responsible for reserve gas supplies to Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, as well as Finland.
Steady gas exports in the United States are reducing the amount of resources for injection into storage, which is supporting prices on the domestic market.
The current inventory level is around 71%, which is substantially below the reserves at UGS facilities in Europe, with the EU having topped this level a month-and-a-half ago, and even more so in Russia, which has over 90%.
Current reserves in the country’s UGS facilities are only 5% above the lowest figure in the past five years, and the figure fell in the summer injection season, though it has risen slightly in the past week, data from the U.S. Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration show. The lag behind the norm for the past five years is 10%.
The rate of injection increased during the last reporting week, with 2.9 billion cubic meters accumulated compared to 2.2 bcm on average over the previous reporting weeks. The end of using air conditioning and no heating demand thus far allow the industry to allocate more gas to storage.
The rate of injection into U.S. UGS facilities has improved somewhat after the suspension of exports through the Freeport LNG terminal owing to an accident.
Additionally, Cove Point terminal, with a capacity of 5.25 million tonnes per year, will stop for scheduled maintenance in September-October, with the volumes exported through the terminal also remaining on the domestic market.
A Ukrainian transport company reacted positively to the proposal of Slovnaft and MOL to pay transit fees for transporting oil through the southern branch of the Druzhba oil pipeline, the Slovak company said.
“Slovnaft has already made a payment to the company’s account. Based on this, Slovnaft expects the resumption of oil supplies in the coming days. The Russian side also agreed with this decision,” the company stressed.
According to Bloomberg, the Hungarian MOL also transferred the transit payment and expects to resume deliveries in the coming days.
Earlier, Transneft reported that on August 4, Ukrtransnafta stopped the transit of Russian oil through Ukraine due to a failure to pay the transit fee. It was noted that the funds sent on July 22 for transit in August were returned to the account of Transneft on July 28 in connection with the entry into force of EU Regulation 2022/1269. Through the southern branch of the Druzhba oil pipeline passing through the territory of Ukraine, oil supplies are carried out in the direction of the refineries of Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic on the basis of a long-term agreement between PJSC Transneft and JSC Ukrtransnafta for the provision of oil transportation services on the terms of 100% prepayment.
The Hungarian MOL and the Slovak Slovnaft (also part of the MOL group) initiated discussions with the Ukrainian and Russian sides on the possibility of paying a transit fee to MOL or Slovnaft, which would allow oil supplies to be restored.
“The interruption of supplies occurred after technical problems at the bank level due to the payment of transit fees from the Russian side. However, production at the Bratislava refinery is running smoothly, and deliveries to the market are smooth. During this period, the Bratislava refinery is in close cooperation with the national oil transporter Transpetrol, as well as in cooperation with the Slovak Ministry of Economy, uses all the reserves available in the system for processing,” Slovnaft said.
So far, there have been no reports of a solution to the problem of transit to the Czech Republic.
Last year, 12 million tons of Russian oil was transported through Druzhba through Ukraine, including 3.4 million tons to the Czech Republic, 5.2 million tons to Slovakia, and 3.4 million tons to Hungary.
The application for the transit of Russian gas through the territory of Ukraine remains at the level of the previous days and months.
Europe has been without Nord Stream gas for the second day.
The energy deficit was aggravated by a two-fold drop in electricity production due to wind.
TRANSIT THROUGH UKRAINE
“Operator GTS Ukrainy” accepted from “Gazprom” an application for gas transit for Tuesday in the amount of 41.2 million cubic meters. m, evidenced by OGTSU data. The indicator on Monday was 41.1 million cubic meters. m. Powers are declared only at one of the two points of entry into the Ukrainian GTS – the Suzha gas measuring station. The application was not accepted for the corridor through the Sokhranovka GIS.
OGTSU announced a force majeure for the acceptance of gas for transit through the GIS station “Sochranovka”, referring to the fact that it cannot carry out operational and technological control over the compressor station “Novopskov”.
Kyiv offered to transfer transit volumes from “Sochranovka” to GIS “Suja”, but “Gazprom” stated that this was technologically impossible.
At the same time, Ukraine insists that payment should still be made on the basis of the estimated volume of transportation of the long-term contract of 109 million cubic meters. m per day according to the “download or pay” rule. “Naftogaz” claims that it is now not receiving payment for transit and is preparing to apply to arbitration.
EUROPEAN MARKET
At the beginning of the new week, the production of electricity due to wind in Europe fell to 7.6% of the energy balance in the EU, while the average indicator for the past week was 15%, according to data from the WindEurope association.
Europe continues to pump gas into underground storage facilities. At the moment, the reserves are about 62.08%, according to data from the Gas Infrastructure Europe association. The increase over the last day was 0.46 percentage points. The current level of reserves in the UGC of Europe lags behind the five-year average by 1.24 percentage points. Since this year, the EU has introduced strict regulation of the use of underground storage facilities. By the beginning of the selection season in 2022, the reserves should be at least 80% of the capacity of the UHP, and 90% thereafter.
European terminals for receiving LNG in July are operating at an average capacity of 63% of their capacity, which is equal to the June indicator. For now, the region remains a premium market for LNG, as prices in Asia are slightly lower than European hubs.
Spot prices for gas in Europe against the background of the Nord Stream repair shutdown are at the level of $1,690 per thousand cubic meters. In Asia, prices are noticeably lower – the August futures on the JKM Platts index (Japan Korea Marker – reflects the spot market value of cargo delivered to Japan, South Korea, China and Taiwan) is trading at $1,390.
Ukraine’s Gas Transmission System Operator (GTSOU) has accepted a request from Gazprom for Monday to transport 40.1 million cubic meters of gas through the country, virtually unchanged from 40.4 mcm on Sunday, data from GTSOU show. Capacity was requested only through one of two entry points into Ukraine’s Gas Transmission System, the Sudzha metering station. A request was not accepted through the Sokhranivka metering station.
“Gazprom is supplying Russian gas for transit through the territory of Ukraine at the volume confirmed by the Ukraine side via the Sudzha metering station at 40.1 million cubic meters on June 6, with no booking via the Sokhranivka metering station ” Gazprom spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov told reporters.
GTSOU has declared a force majeure in regard to accepting gas for transit through Sokhranivka, citing the fact that it cannot control the Novopskov compressor station.
Gazprom believes there are no grounds for a force majeure or obstacles to continuing to operations as usual. Ukrainian specialists worked smoothly at the Sokhranivka and Novopskov stations all this time and continue to do so; transit through Sokhranivka was ensured in full, and there were and are no complaints from counterparties, the Russian gas giant has said.
Gas Transport System Operator of Ukraine (GTSOU) has accepted a request from Gazprom for Wednesday to transport 53.9 million cubic meters of gas through the country, up from 48.8 mcm on Tuesday, data from GTSOU show.
The capacity was requested only through one of two entry points into Ukraine’s Gas Transmission System, the Sudzha metering station. A request was not being accepted through the Sokhranivka metering station.
“Gazprom is feeding Russian gas for transit through Ukraine’s territory in the amount confirmed by the Ukrainian side through the Sudzha gas metering station – 51.6 mcm for May 18. The request for the Sokhranivka gas metering station was declined,” Gazprom spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov told reporters.
GTSOU declared a force majeure in regard to accepting gas for transit through Sokhranivka, citing the fact that it cannot control the Novopskov compressor station.
Market
As prices decrease on the market, Europe’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are beginning to fall somewhat in May from the record high of April, when the European gas transport system took in 10.651 billion cubic meters or 355 mcm per day from LNG terminals. As of the last reporting date, May 16, use of regasification capacity at European terminals was at 63%, which is far from the peak of 77% at the end of April.
The region is continuing to inject gas into underground gas storage (UGS) facilities, reserves in which now stand at 40.52%, up by 0.45 percentage points from a day earlier, data from Gas Infrastructure Europe show. Reserves in Europe’s UGS currently lag 3.5 percentage points behind the five-year average.
Injection into UGS in April was slowed by high prices for imported gas, but in May imports from Russia increased and the pace increased. In the first 16 days of May, the pace of gas injection into UGS exceeded the five-year average by 48%, compared to just 12% in April.
Europe imposed tight regulation of the use of UGS this year. Reserves are supposed to be at least 80% of UGS capacity by the start of the offtake season in 2022 and subsequently increase to 90%. However, European Union officials continue to oppose Russia’s new conditions for paying for gas. This could lead to the suspension of supplies to other countries as has already happened with Poland and Bulgaria, and makes it harder to fulfil this directive.
Wind power contributed almost 17% of electricity generation across the European Union in the week from May 9 to 15. The figure dropped to 12% in the first two days of the new week, data from WindEurope show.
Operations of the European gas industry are realigning with the changing season, with the warming spring temperatures in Europe and declining prices on the spot market resulting in importers reducing off-take of Russian gas.
According to the data of Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine, nomination for April 26 is 56 million cubic meters, and bookings for April 25 totaled 68.4 million cubic meters.
Rising temperatures and seasonally declining gas consumption allow importers to return to the flexible optimization of booking volumes from suppliers depending on the cost. Gas imported under a month-ahead contract – Gazprom has about half of its exports pegged to this contract – in April is around $1,400 per thousand cubic meters. A day-ahead contract on the spot market is currently $1,050 per thousand cubic meters. Therefore, buyers are increasing their purchases on the spot market, and reducing off-take on record-breaking long-term contracts.
Gas actually flowing via the Yamal-Europe pipeline between Germany and Poland has been continuously pumping in reverse mode since April 7. On Tuesday, the reverse flow of gas from Germany to Poland has dropped 66.7% to 200,000 cubic meters per hour, according to data from the Gascade gas transport operator. Off-take of additional volumes of gas from the main European hubs instead of direct imports from the east is another factor in the current high gas prices in the European Union.
Wind farms provided an average of 17% of the electricity generation in the European Union last week from April 18 to 24, with the figure falling to 9.5% on Monday, according to data from the WindEurope association.
Europe has begun injecting gas into its underground gas storage (UGS) facilities. The current stock level is 31.57%, an increase of 0.33 percentage points over the past day. The current stockpile in the UGS facilities in Europe is 6.3 percentage points behind the five-year average. High prices for imported gas have restrained injection in April.
According to the decree of the Russian president, the government as of April has introduced a new procedure for paying for Russian gas supplies that stipulates the obligatory conversion of the contract currency into rubles through Gazprombank.
