Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine has a profound negative impact on global food security. Ukraine still remains an important link in the global food chain, and restoring its full agricultural production and export capabilities is critical to stabilizing global food markets and preventing a large-scale food crisis, SEEDSwrites .
Denys Vasylenko, co-founder of the logistics company NIDERA AGRO, an expert in grain exports and logistics, and industry leader of the NGO Svit.UA, wrote about this in a blog post on the website of the public platform Svit.UA .
“Due to the war, Ukraine has lost a significant part of its traditional export routes. The blockade of the Black Sea ports, the destruction of transport infrastructure and constant security threats have created significant barriers to agricultural exports. Disruptions in the supply of food from Ukraine have led to an increase in global agricultural prices. This hit poor countries that are critically dependent on imports particularly hard.
At the same time, new opportunities for Ukrainian farmers have emerged, including the abolition of customs duties in the EU, which has made it easier to enter the European market,” Denys Vasylenko said .
Key export destinations and new opportunities
Agriculture accounts for a significant portion of the country’s GDP and is a key factor in economic sustainability. The full-scale invasion has shown how important it is for Ukraine to maintain logistics, especially the operation of sea routes and ports, to ensure a stable supply of products to global markets.
“The main goal of our work is to integrate Ukrainian grain into the European market. Ukraine’s export potential for 2025 is highly dependent on many factors, the main one being the end of the war and the establishment of peace. In the case of a positive scenario, Ukraine has a significant potential to restore and grow exports, using the opportunities of European integration, international support and domestic reforms. In a negative scenario, our export opportunities will be critically limited,” emphasizes the grain export and logistics expert.
We managed to knock Russian companies out of the Italian market
Nevertheless, the EU remains Ukraine’s main trading partner, emphasized Denys Vasylenko.
“In January 2025, the volume of exports to the EU reached $1.8 billion. 57% of our food exports cross the EU border, of which 52% remain in the EU countries. We managed to knock Russian companies out of the Italian market. Although it is still very difficult to compete with them on prices. Now the Italian and Spanish markets are open to us, but we need to gain a foothold there. Not only with the products we sell there. We need to have a good reputation and work efficiently for the long term.
As for global markets, we also need to work hard and look for opportunities. After we almost lost China, Egypt and Turkey, African countries are very important for our wheat. Now exports to these countries have increased from 3% to 13%. This is a good trend,” said the co-founder of the logistics company NIDERA AGRO.
According to him, the blocking of ports, destruction of infrastructure, disruption of transportation routes, security risks – all this creates extraordinary challenges for farmers.
“The war has dramatically changed the logistics routes of Ukrainian agricultural exports and led to the search for alternative export routes (by rail, river, through the western borders). To stabilize exports, it is important to have an effective logistics strategy that includes route optimization, coordination with European partners, and the use of new technological solutions in grain transportation.
One of the key areas of work of the NGO Svit.UA is advocacy of Ukrainian producers before European governments and the business community.
The organization is actively working to ensure stable access of Ukrainian agricultural products to the EU markets and to support the competitiveness of our farmers. In addition, the NGO Svit.UA helps producers adapt their logistics processes, looks for new export opportunities and participates in the creation of effective solutions to improve agro-logistics,” adds Denys Vasylenko.
Ukrainian agricultural exports are facing unprecedented challenges, but at the same time, they are getting new opportunities, the grain export and logistics expert believes.
“Gaining a foothold in the European market, developing the African direction, searching for new logistics solutions and an effective product promotion strategy are the key areas that will determine the future of Ukrainian agricultural exports.
Ukraine has every chance to not only maintain but also strengthen its position as one of the leading players in the global food market. To do this, we need not only to effectively solve logistical issues, but also to build long-term strategic partnerships with importing countries despite any challenges,” Denys Vasylenko is convinced.
According to the European Commission, from July 1, 2024 to February 2, 2025, the European Union countries imported about 1.24 million tons of sunflower oil. This is less than in the same period last year (1.51 million tons), but higher than in the 2022/23 season (1.13 million tons). The pace of imports has slowed in recent weeks: while in December up to 59,000 tons were imported weekly, in early February – less than 25,000 tons per week.
Ukraine remains the largest supplier of sunflower oil to the EU, providing 94% of imports (1.17 million tons). However, this is lower than the previous year’s figure (1.40 million tons) due to reduced raw material supplies, slower processing and limited export potential.
Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina are the second and third largest suppliers of sunflower oil to the EU with market shares of 3% and almost 1% respectively. However, their export volumes also declined compared to the previous year.
The decline in supplies from Ukraine, Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina is prompting the EU to seek new sunflower oil suppliers to compensate for the deficit and stabilize the market.
Source – TG channel Serbian Economist
In Ukraine this week prices for imported tomatoes produced in Turkey have started to decrease, analysts of the EastFruit project report. The reason for this was a rather weak interest of wholesale companies and retail chains in the purchase of these products.
Today Ukrainian importers offer Turkish tomatoes for sale at 75-90 UAH/kg ($1.79-2.15/kg), depending on the quality and volume of batches, which is on average 14% cheaper than at the end of last week. At the same time, the supply of imported products is quite voluminous, while the demand for them is quite restrained. As a result, significant volumes of unsold products are accumulated in the warehouses of companies, due to which sellers are ready to concede in price.
Thus, during the week the supply of tomatoes from Turkey continued to increase, as a result of which the supply on the market remained excessive. Due to low sales rates, most wholesalers and retailers reduced the volume of tomato purchases and purchased new batches as the existing stocks were realized.
At the same time, it should be noted that prices for imported tomatoes in Ukraine are currently still 10% higher than in the same period last year. According to key market players, if the sales rates in the tomato segment do not accelerate in the near future, the decline in prices for these products may last until the end of February this year.
You can get more detailed information about market development of tomatoes and other horticultural products in Ukraine by subscribing to the operative analytical weekly – EastFruit Ukraine Weekly Pro. Detailed information about the product can be found here.
Ukraine and Egypt may sign a free trade agreement that will expand the range of products traded between the two countries, according to Vitaliy Koval, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food.
The Minister noted that the trade turnover of agricultural products between Ukraine and Egypt increased in 2024. In particular, the export of Ukrainian agricultural products increased by 32% compared to 2023 and amounted to $1.4 billion. It is based on corn, wheat, soybeans, and oil. Egypt supplies Ukraine with citrus fruits, potatoes, nuts, and more.
According to the minister, Egypt is interested in expanding cooperation, particularly in the field of livestock and exports of Ukrainian meat. At the same time, there are factors that hinder the development of trade, including veterinary and phytosanitary restrictions.
The parties discussed issues of processing and storage of agricultural products, the use of modern technologies to reduce food losses and increase production efficiency. The Ukrainian side is represented by Taras Kachka, Deputy Minister of Economy and Trade Representative of Ukraine, and Serhiy Tkachuk, Head of the State Service of Ukraine for Food Safety and Consumer Protection.
The Ukrainian delegation has already held talks with the Minister of Agriculture and Land Reclamation Alaa El-Din Farouk and the Minister of Supply and Internal Trade of Egypt Sharif Farouk. The parties discussed prospects for bilateral partnership in agriculture and food security.
Today, Donald Trump will officially begin his term as the 47th President of the United States of America. His possible actions and strategies in the international arena were the main topic of discussion at a meeting of experts organized by the Atlantic Council and Experts Club. Brian Mefford, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, and Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club, discussed key issues that will affect the geopolitical situation in the world, including Ukraine.
Brian Mefford noted that Trump’s first months in office will be focused on resolving domestic issues, such as the confirmation of his cabinet members in the Senate. However, the expert emphasized that Ukraine will remain an important issue in US foreign policy.
“Ukraine already has a special envoy, General Kellogg. Although his visit to Kyiv was postponed, it shows that Ukraine remains a priority. Its security is crucial for stability in the region,” Mr. Mefford said.
One of the key topics of discussion was Ukraine’s membership in NATO, which was first promised at the Bucharest Summit in 2008. According to Brian Mefford, this decision could have prevented many of the current problems.
“It was a serious mistake at the time. Russia used this uncertainty: first in Georgia and then in Ukraine. Now, because of the war on its own territory, the NATO issue for Ukraine is being postponed indefinitely. At the same time, there is a need for long-term security guarantees. Ukraine needs modern weapons, so the United States and European partners must remain reliable allies of Ukraine,” he explained.
At the same time, according to the expert, the issue of NATO funding became one of the most discussed during Trump’s first presidency, when he called on European countries to increase their defense spending.
“The United States spends more on defense than the next nine countries combined. Trump was right to insist that European countries spend at least 2% of GDP on defense. And now these requirements are being met. Increasing defense spending in Europe is in everyone’s interest. The alliance remains a powerful tool for ensuring stability,” Mr. Mefford emphasized.
According to him, the US withdrawal from NATO is currently an unlikely scenario.
Mefford suggested that the Trump administration will continue its tough economic policy towards China, including trade wars.
“China does not follow fair rules in international trade. Support for Taiwan will remain unchanged, as the United States has strategic interests in the region. Although China often demonstrates strength, its economy is on the verge of recession and its military power is exaggerated,” he explained.
The expert also touched upon the issue of sanctions against Russia, which remain an effective tool of international pressure.
“Trump imposed more sanctions against Russia during his previous term than Obama did. Their mitigation is possible only if the war ends. This is a long-term mechanism that cannot be ignored,” emphasized Mefford.
Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club think tank, in turn, emphasized the importance of Donald Trump’s election for Ukraine and the world and reminded of other important elections for Ukraine and the region in 2025:
“For Ukraine, partnership with the United States is crucial. However, we need to be prepared for different scenarios and strengthen our economic resilience and diversify our foreign policy, given the very important elections this year in Germany, Poland, Romania, Moldova, and Canada. The world is becoming very dynamic in the future,” said Maxim Urakin.
The experts’ analysis showed that Trump’s policy toward Ukraine will be shaped by both internal and external factors. At the same time, Ukraine’s role in global security will only grow, and international support will remain critical for security on the European continent.
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Atlantic Council, EXPERTS CLUB, NATO, SECURITY, TRUMP, UKRAINE, URAKIN, USA, Меффорд
Ukraine in 2024 imported 7 million 562,556 thousand tons of petroleum products (under HS code 2710: gasoline, diesel fuel, fuel oil, jet fuel, etc.), which is 1.1% less than in 2023 (7 million 646,537 thousand tons).
According to the State Customs Service, petroleum products were imported for $6 billion 820.605 million, 12.9% less than in 2023 ($7 billion 831.477 million).
From Greece imported fuel for $1 billion 393.372 million (share – 20.43%), Poland – $917.31 million (13.45%), Lithuania – $681.88 million (10%), other countries – $3 billion 828.042 million (56.12%).
As reported, Ukraine imported 7 million 300.073 thousand tons of petroleum products in 2022, which is 17% less than in 2021 (8 million 790.515 thousand tons). Petroleum products in 2022 imported $8 billion 787.171 million, 56.5% more than in 2021 ($5 billion 614.787 million).
