CRH Group, the largest building materials manufacturer in North America and Europe, has invested $80 million in Ukraine over the course of the full-scale invasion. Guillaume Cavalier, President of CRH in Central and Eastern Europe, told Forbes Ukraine that the group’s total investments in Ukraine over 25 years of work amount to more than $500 million. According to him, in the context of rebuilding infrastructure in Ukraine, it is important to use cement produced locally, which will provide jobs and higher revenues to the state budget.
Cavalier emphasized that for the potential growth of the Ukrainian cement market after accession to the EU, it is important to invest in the expansion of production facilities now. He reminded that the Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine (AMCU) is currently considering CRH’s application to acquire assets of Italian Buzzi in Ukraine – cement plants Volyn-cement (Zdolbunov, Rivne region) and YuGcement (Olshanskoe, Mykolayiv region).
As reported, on January 23, AMCU reported about the beginning of consideration of the case on concerted actions in the form of fulfillment of provisions on refraining from competition, enshrined in the concentration agreement between the Irish group CRH and Dyckerhoff GmbH, which own assets in Ukraine.
In June 2023, Italian cement producer Buzzi, listed by the National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption as an international sponsor of war, through its subsidiary Dyckerhoff GmbH, reached an agreement to sell part of its business in Eastern Europe to Irish group CRH, including Ukrainian assets in the form of two cement plants. The transaction is expected to close in 2024.
Later, in September 2023, the AMCU returned CRH’s application for concentration without consideration due to non-compliance with the requirements, and also noted that the group occupies about one-third of the Ukrainian cement market. In October of the same year, the agency reopened the case.
CRH has been operating in Ukraine since 1999. Since November 2021, its cement enterprises in Ukraine have been operating under the Cemark brand: Podolsk Cement JSC (Khmelnytskyi oblast), Cement LLC (Odessa) and Mykolaivcement PJSC (Lviv oblast).
A separate business area of CRH in Ukraine is production concrete and reinforced concrete products. PoliBeton Energo’s Bila Tserkva Reinforced Concrete Plant is a specialized enterprise that produces supports for power transmission lines. PoliBeton’s concrete unit in the north of Odessa joined CRH in 2020.
CRH is a leading manufacturer of construction materials in the world. The company employs about 71,000 people at its 3,200 plants in 28 countries. It is the largest producer of building materials in North America and Europe. The company is also present in Asia. American depositary shares of CRH are listed on the New York Stock Exchange.
The National Bank of Ukraine has estimated Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first quarter of 2024 by the same period last year at 3.1%, while in January it forecast it at 7.1%.
“Real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2024, according to NBU estimates, was weaker than expected, primarily due to restrained budget expenditures amid uncertainty about the receipt of external financing. An additional factor was the blockade of the western border, which restrained the activity of certain types of activities,” the National Bank explained in the Inflation Report published on its website.
At the same time, as the NBU pointed out, stable operation of the sea corridor, favorable weather and increased domestic demand supported economic growth. The central bank added that fiscal policy remained accommodative and, together with the effect of a significant increase in fiscal spending at the end of 2023, significantly fueled aggregate demand.
Earlier, in late April, the Economy Ministry estimated Ukraine’s GDP growth at 4.5% in the first quarter of this year.
As the National Bank notes, moderate GDP growth rates will remain until the end of 2024. “The main factors of growth will remain the preservation of soft fiscal policy, revitalization of external demand, as well as further adjustment of business and population to the conditions of significant security threats. However, the pace of economic growth will slow given the impact of the war and the depletion of growth momentum from the low base of 2022,” the NBI pointed out.
It added that the recovery will also be constrained by the impact of the destruction of energy infrastructure.
According to the updated forecasts, GDP growth will accelerate to 3.7% in the second quarter (the NBU expected it at 4.8% in January) before slowing to 1.3% (1.7%) in the third quarter and accelerating again to 4.1% (2.0%) in the fourth quarter.
Overall, for 2024, the NBU worsened its growth forecast for the Ukrainian economy to 3% from 3.6% in its January report, and for 2025 to 5.3% from 5.8%.
“The negative contribution of revised estimates of the e/e deficit to the change in real GDP in 2024 is estimated at 0.6 percentage points (pp), and 0.5 pp in 2025. Instead, the impact on GDP of a smaller grain harvest in 2024 will be insignificant due to the reorientation of agricultural producers to more marginal crops, particularly oilseeds,” the central bank said.
According to the regulator, the balance of risks of the baseline forecast is shifted towards deterioration of Ukraine’s economic growth rates and increased price pressure.
The National Bank in the updated Inflation Report increased the number of key risks of the forecast (with a strong impact and probability of 25-50%) to three: to the risk of a longer period and intensity of the war added the risk of large budgetary needs (a quarter earlier the NBU estimated its probability at 15-25%) and large damage to energy and port infrastructure (a quarter earlier the impact of this risk the central bank considered moderate).
At the same time, the probability of the risk of reduction of volumes and loss of rhythm of international aid receipts and continuation of partial blocking of cargo traffic across the border by some EU countries was reduced from 25-50% to 15-25%, but the degree of impact of the latter risk was increased from weak to moderate.
In addition, the NBU added a new risk – aggravation of the situation in the Red Sea, but estimated its probability at 15-25% and the degree of influence as low, as well as excluded the risk of increasing the capacity of maritime export routes, which is positive for the forecast.
Earlier Experts Club analytical center and Maxim Urakin released a video analysis of how the GDP of the world’s countries has changed in recent years, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=BsZmIUERHSBJrO_3 Subscribe to Experts Club YouTube channel here – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub.
EXPERTS CLUB, GDP, MACROECONOMICS, NATIONAL BANK, UKRAINE, URAKIN
The National Bank of Ukraine says it is implementing the largest package of easing currency restrictions for businesses since the start of the full-scale war to improve the conditions for doing business in Ukraine and the entry of domestic businesses into new markets, as well as supporting economic recovery and facilitating the inflow of new investment into the country.
“First, all currency restrictions on imports of works and services are abolished. Second, the ability of businesses to repatriate ‘new’ dividends is ensured. Third, the possibility to transfer funds abroad on leasing/renting is provided,” the NBU said in a press release on Friday evening.
“Fourth, restrictions in terms of repayment of new external loans are relaxed. Fifth, the possibility to repay interest on ‘old’ external loans is provided. Sixth, restrictions in terms of transferring foreign currency from representative offices in favor of their parent companies are relaxed,” the regulator added.
It is specified that these and a number of other technical changes were introduced by the NBU Board Resolution No. 56 of May 3, 2024 to the so-called “military” Resolution No. 18 of February 24, 2022. The vast majority of the document’s provisions come into force from May 4, 2024, and only in terms of repatriation of new dividends – from May 13, 2024.
The regulator believes that this will support Ukrainian producers and provide them with the opportunity to enter foreign markets, which in turn will contribute to a gradual increase in export revenues.
It is indicated that repatriation of dividends by businesses will be allowed only for dividends accrued based on performance after January 1, 2024.
“This relaxation does not apply to the payment of dividends at the expense of retained earnings for previous periods or reserve capital,” emphasized the National Bank.
In addition, the regulator set a monthly limit for repatriation of “new” dividends at EUR1 million equivalent in order to minimize risks to macro-financial stability. It is noted that control over compliance with this norm will be ensured thanks to the NBU’s automated information system “E-limits”.
“Providing an opportunity to repatriate “new” dividends will contribute to the inflow of new investments in Ukraine, minimize the risks of curtailing the activities of enterprises with foreign capital and support the economy,” the National Bank believes.
As for the easing of restrictions on servicing and repayment of “new” foreign loans and repayment of “old”, the NBU has reduced the minimum period of use of the loan, the funds for which come from abroad after June 20, 2023 on the accounts of residents, from three to one year, when reaching which it is allowed to buy foreign currency for its repayment. Thus, the ban on the purchase of foreign currency for repayment of “new” loans will apply to loans for up to one year.
In addition, the NBU will allow businesses, regardless of the period of use of “new” loans to buy foreign currency to pay interest on them.
“All this will contribute to increasing opportunities for Ukrainian businesses to attract new external loans not only from official partners, but also from private investors,” the release said.
Moreover, according to it, resident borrowers will be able to make transfers in foreign currency to repay interest on “old” external loans, which, according to the terms of the agreement, are payable from February 24, 2022. However, under one loan agreement for interest payments overdue as of May 1, 2024, borrowers will be able to transfer no more than 1EUR million equivalent per calendar quarter.
Also, according to the release, legal entities and individual entrepreneurs will be able to transfer funds abroad for settlements under leasing or rental contracts without additional restrictions on the subject of such a contract, as well as the date of its conclusion.
The National Bank reminded that previously such permission was only for leasing or renting vehicles.
Regarding the permission for representative offices of foreign companies to transfer foreign currency to the accounts of parent companies, it is specified that the central bank will allow international card payment systems and foreign airlines to buy and transfer foreign currency abroad to the account of a non-resident legal entity, but for such operations will be set a monthly limit of EUR5 million in equivalent.
According to the regulator, this will contribute to further development of cashless settlements in Ukraine.
ACTIVITIES, BUSINESS, CURRENCY, ECONOMY, INVESTMENTS, NATIONAL BANK OF UKRAINE, UKRAINE
The Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine has approved the distribution of 18.8 billion UAH of state budget expenditures among 134 state-owned higher education institutions, which fall under the management of the Ministry of Education.
According to the press service of the ministry, the amount of allocated state funds for each university is determined taking into account 5 main criteria that an educational institution must meet.
In particular, the main criterion of distribution is the contingent of applicants who study at the expense of the budget, as well as we are talking about such indicators as: scientific activity – the number of funds that the university has earned from the provision of scientific and technical, consulting services or received in the form of grants for scientific research; internationalization – place in international rankings or participation in European projects Erasmus+; employment – the percentage of employed graduates; regional coefficient – to support the educational institutions of the largest number of graduates in the country.
Thus, the most funds will go to: National Technical University Kyiv Polytechnic Institute named after Sikorsky (UAH 1,530.9 mln.), National University Lviv Polytechnic (UAH 980.1 mln.), National University of Bioresources and Nature Management (UAH 620 mln. ), Lviv Frank National University (UAH 568.4 million), National Aviation University (UAH 498.8 million), National Technical University “Kharkiv Polytechnic Institute” (UAH 496.6 million), Kharkiv National University named after Karazin (UAH 412 million).
“The MES is developing methodological recommendations on the use of the reserve, the amount of which amounts to UAH 504 million. It is envisaged that part of this reserve will be directed to solve problems related to the functioning of displaced educational institutions”, – stated in the message.
Receipts of taxes, fees and mandatory payments to the general fund of the state budget of Ukraine, according to operational data, in April amounted to UAH 153.6 billion compared to UAH 164.3 billion in March and UAH 184.8 billion in February, such operational data (as of 16:00 on April 30) reported the Ministry of Finance on Tuesday.
According to its data, the most of all reduced receipts of payments from the State Tax Service – to 59.7 billion UAH from 105.7 billion UAH in March and 107.4 billion UAH in February, which is due to high payments in previous months of income tax, in particular, by banks, as well as advance payments.
It is pointed out that in April, income tax revenues amounted to only UAH 3.2 billion against UAH 60.1 billion in March and UAH 61.0 billion in February, but in April, part of its profit of UAH 38.64 billion was transferred to the budget by the National Bank, although the Ministry of Finance does not mention it in the summary.
As for other taxes, personal income tax and military levy increased to UAH 16.5 billion (UAH 15.7 billion) in April, rents to UAH 5.5 billion (UAH 1.4 billion), and excise tax to UAH 11.5 billion (UAH 9.2 billion).
Value added tax also increased to UAH 22.8 billion (UAH 18.0 billion): collected UAH 34.8 billion (UAH 29.0 billion), refunded – UAH 12.0 billion (UAH 11.1 billion).
Receipts from the State Customs Service increased in April to UAH 48.9 billion from UAH 45.8 billion in March and UAH 39.8 billion in February. As the head of the specialized parliamentary committee, Daniil Getmantsev, pointed out on Tuesday, about 2.5 billion hryvnias of additional revenue came from the unblocking of the Polish border over the past week.
The Finance Ministry pointed out that the monthly revenue estimate of the general fund of the state budget, according to operational data, was exceeded by 29.5% (+35 billion UAH), including by the State Tax Service – by 7.9% (+4.4 billion UAH), while the State Customs Service – by 14.5% (+6.2 billion UAH).
In addition, the general fund of the state budget received UAH 2.7 billion of international aid in the form of grants in April, compared to UAH 3.1 billion in March and UAH 31 billion in February.
“In general, according to operational data, at the end of April 2024, the general and special funds of the state budget received UAH 200.8 billion (UAH 225.9 billion in March and UAH 229.0 billion in February) of taxes, fees and other payments. In addition, about UAH 40.1 billion (in March – UAH 39.0 billion) in the form of ERUs was received by the Pension Fund and social insurance funds,” the ministry added, thanking taxpayers for your contribution to the support of the Ukrainian army and financial stability of the country.
Data on expenditures in April are not yet available.
As reported, the Verkhovna Rada adopted the state budget for 2024 with a deficit of UAH 1.57 trillion, or 20.6% of projected GDP. Revenues of the state budget-2024 are set at UAH 1.77 trillion (not taking into account possible grant aid), expenditures – UAH 3.36 trillion at an average annual exchange rate of UAH 40.7/$1.
State budget-2023 revenues amounted to UAH 2.67 trillion, of which grant aid amounted to UAH 0.43 trillion. Cash expenditures of the state budget for the past year exceeded UAH 4 trillion, and the deficit amounted to UAH 1.33 trillion at an average annual exchange rate of about 36.6 UAH/$1.
Earlier Experts Club analytical center and Maxim Urakin released a video analysis of how the GDP of the world’s countries has changed in recent years, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=BsZmIUERHSBJrO_3 Subscribe to Experts Club YouTube channel here – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub.
BUDGET, decreased in April, EXPERTS CLUB, GDP, MACROECONOMICS, MINISTRY OF FINANCE, TAXES, UKRAINE, URAKIN
The Ukrainian national ice hockey team played its third match at the World Championship in Division 1B. The opponent was China, and the match ended with a score of 9:0.
China, which came to the tournament without legionnaires and players from the KHL club Kunlun, was again unable to resist the Ukrainian national team. The Ukrainians scored nine goals in the pre-World Cup sparring session.
Today, Ukraine will play an early match again, with Spain as the opponent.
