According to the results of a survey conducted by the research company Active Group and the Experts Club analytical center and published in the Interfax-Ukraine press center, when buying medicines, 50.5% of respondents primarily focus on the combination of price and effectiveness, 25.0% on price, and 24.5% on effectiveness.
The survey was conducted online on February 11-12, 2026, with 1,000 respondents (18+).
“The choice of ‘price plus effectiveness’ reflects the desire to get results, but within a limited budget,” said Experts Club founder Maxim Urakin.
“Consumers are becoming more rational, and this intensifies competition among manufacturers for trust and affordability,” said Active Group CEO and co-founder Alexander Pozniy.
The study was conducted on the SunFlowerSociology online panel using a representative sample on February 11-12, 2026. The survey involved 1,000 respondents from a representative sample in all regions of Ukraine, except for the temporarily occupied territories.
ACTIVE GROUP, EXPERTS CLUB, Pozniy, SOCIOLOGY, SOLONINKA, SURVEY, URAKIN
Trade in Ukrainian goods in 2025 remained highly concentrated and with a pronounced import bias, according to a study by the Experts Club analytical center on the top 50 trading partners as of December 31, 2025.
As noted in the study, the top ten countries account for about two-thirds of total trade, with China alone accounting for almost a fifth of turnover. Experts Club founder Maxim Urakin emphasizes: “The overall picture is consistent with the aggregated statistics for 2025: Ukraine’s imports are estimated at about $84.8 billion, exports at about $40.3 billion, and trade turnover at about $125.1 billion.”
China has become Ukraine’s largest partner in terms of trade turnover in the TOP-50 sample – $21.04 billion, with imports of $19.23 billion and exports of $1.82 billion, resulting in a negative balance of $17.41 billion. Urakin believes that “there will be no quick solutions to balance the trade deficit with China without strengthening Ukraine’s industrial export positions” and suggests focusing on localizing part of the supply chains for Ukrainian needs, contract manufacturing, and expanding agricultural and food exports with deeper processing.
Poland ranked second in terms of trade turnover with $13.02 billion, followed by Germany with $9.06 billion, Turkey with $8.95 billion, and the US with $5.69 billion. Commenting on the European direction, Urakin draws attention to the risks of regulation: “The risk factor here is not so much economic as regulatory and political… the issue of quotas and restrictions periodically returns to the agenda.” In his opinion, the key to expanding presence in the EU market is “quality of entry” — standards, traceability, certification, and integration into value chains.
The study also notes the role of markets where Ukraine has a positive trade balance, as well as the importance of trade hubs and logistics. In particular, among the areas that could potentially provide rapid growth with reduced logistics costs and stable maritime routes, the countries where exports already exceed imports stand out, as well as European logistics hubs through which part of Ukraine’s flows pass.
Speaking about the prospects for 2026, Experts Club highlights as key factors the conditions of access to EU markets, institutional agreements with regional partners, and logistics, including the security of sea routes. “The most applicable growth points for Ukraine are a combination of markets with an already positive balance and instruments that reduce barriers: agreements, standardization, and logistics,” Urakin concluded.
More than 15% of Ukrainians noticed that the cost of medicines increased by more than 50% during 2024-2025, while 52% of Ukrainians noted a 20%-50% increase in the cost of medicines.
According to Alexander Pozniy, director of the research company Active Group, this is evidenced by the results of a survey conducted by Active Group and the Experts Club analytical center in early February and presented to Interfax-Ukraine on Friday.
Pozniy noted that a third of those surveyed said that medicine prices had remained almost unchanged, while 2.6% said that they had even decreased.
“In general, it can be noted that the cost of medicines has risen quite significantly, and this is noted by almost the absolute majority (of respondents),” he said, explaining that medicines account for about 10-20% of the household budget, which is why the price increase is so noticeable.
Pozniy noted that, according to the survey, when buying medicines, 25% of Ukrainians pay attention to price, while 24.5% pay attention to effectiveness.
“That is, slightly more than half pay attention to the combination of price and effectiveness of the selected medicines. Therefore, people try to find the optimal combination that would provide the best effect and the least financial burden in terms of treatment,” he said.
In addition, Pozniy said that 28.4% of respondents prefer Ukrainian medicines, while 33.4% prefer imported ones. For 38% of respondents, the country of origin of the drugs does not matter.
According to the results, 31.4% of respondents believe that using electronic prescriptions is very convenient, 44% believe it is somewhat convenient, 18.7% believe it is somewhat inconvenient, and only 5.9% believe it is very inconvenient.
For his part, Maksim Urakin, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, noted that the price of medicines is a key factor for Ukrainian citizens.
“Against this backdrop, it is particularly important how state mechanisms for reimbursement and compensation for the cost of medicines work. There is a state reimbursement program, but only 13% of Ukrainians use it. Therefore, reimbursement needs to be promoted among citizens,” he said.
The survey was conducted on the SunFlowerSociology online panel using a representative sample on February 11-12, 2026. The survey involved 1,000 respondents from a representative sample in all regions of Ukraine, except for the temporarily occupied territories.
ACTIVE GROUP, EXPERTS CLUB, MEDICINE, Pozniy, REFORM, URAKIN
Ukrainians cite the outflow of medical personnel and the destruction of medical infrastructure by the aggressor as the main reasons for the deterioration in the availability of medical services during the war.
According to the results of a survey conducted by the research company Active Group and the Experts Club analytical center in early February and presented to the Interfax-Ukraine agency on Friday, 48% of respondents noted that they felt a deterioration in medical services during the war.
Among the main problems of medicine in wartime, 60% of respondents cited the outflow of medical personnel, 22.7% cited the destruction of medical infrastructure, and 13.4% cited a shortage of medicines.
“Considering that the deterioration in medical services is due to the fact that medical facilities have either been physically destroyed or doctors have left them, the fact that only 48% of respondents felt a deterioration is not a bad result. The main problems in medicine during the war are the outflow of medical personnel, followed by the destruction of infrastructure, and then the shortage of medicines. In other words, we see that the main problem is the shortage of medical personnel,” said Active Group founder Andrey Eremenko.
The reforms carried out in the medical sector in recent years have contributed to the fact that medicine continues to function, and the fact that people talk about the lack of improvement or deterioration in the quality of medical services, according to the expert, is still “not subject to harsh criticism.”
According to the survey, 7.2% currently rate the state of affairs in the healthcare system as very poor, 18.7% as rather poor, 16.7% as rather good, and 2% as very good. At the same time, 54.6% gave it an average rating.
At the same time, 29.5% of respondents completely trust their family doctor, and 61.9% trust them partially.
When assessing the possibility of obtaining consultations from a family doctor in their region, 88.8% of respondents said that it was very easy or easy to do so, while 21% said it was very difficult or difficult.
Just over 10% of respondents noted that their local hospital has a sufficient supply of medicines and modern equipment, while 45.8% said that there is a partial supply.
At the same time, 40% of respondents noted that consultations with a specialist take up to a week, 28.4% take 1-2 weeks, and 11.5% take more than a month. In 2024-2025, 68% of respondents regularly paid for medical services themselves.
At the same time, 16% of respondents noted that they spend less than 5% of their family budget on medicine, while almost 21% of respondents reported spending more than 20%.
“The study revealed both the positive and painful aspects of the Ukrainian healthcare system. The most painful issue is the brain drain. But it is important to see the strengths as well. I was very pleased that the level of trust in family doctors is very high. So, the foundation for the development of the healthcare system is there, although, in particular due to the war, there are economic barriers and barriers to accessibility,” said Maksim Urakin, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.
50.5% of Ukrainians said they had not seen any improvements after the medical reforms (in particular, the introduction of the National Health Service), 24.7% reported improvements, and another 24.8% were undecided.
At the same time, 64% of respondents said they had encountered unofficial payments in medical institutions, and 52.2% considered the medical system to be corrupt (another 44.3% considered it to be “partially corrupt”). This is according to the results of a survey conducted by the research company Active Group using the SunFlowerSociology online panel.
Active Group Director Oleksandr Pozniy noted that against the backdrop of more critical assessments of the reform, people often separate their trust in a particular doctor from their trust in the system as a whole.
“We can say that family doctors, especially those who have been specifically and consciously chosen, are trusted. It is quite a common situation when people may not trust the system, but trust a specific doctor they know. At the same time, reform exists when it changes everyday experience, and although some changes have taken place, there is still dissatisfaction with this reform,” he said at a press conference at the Interfax-Ukraine agency on Friday.
According to the study, Ukrainians most often assess the state of the healthcare system as “average” (54.6%), “rather poor” (18.7%), or “very poor” (7.2%); 2.9% said “very good” and 16.7% said “rather good.”
At the same time, the level of trust in family doctors remains relatively high: 29.5% of respondents said they completely trust them, 61.9% said they partially trust them, and 8.6% said they do not trust them.
The survey also identified problems with access to medical care and resources at the local level. In particular, 23.8% of respondents believe that it is “very easy” to get a consultation with a family doctor, 55.1% say it is “easy,” 18.1% say it is “difficult,” and 2.9% say it is “very difficult.” Only 10.1% responded that their local hospital has “enough” modern equipment and medicines, 45.8% said “somewhat enough,” and 32.4% said “no.”
In addition, according to respondents, the wait time for an appointment with a specialist exceeds one month in 11.5% of cases, lasts 2–4 weeks in 19.8% of cases, 1–2 weeks in 28.4% of cases, and up to one week in 40.2% of cases.
Active Group founder Andriy Yeremenko attributed some of the negative assessments to the scale of direct household expenses.
“In fact, we see that more than 90% pay for treatment in one way or another, although medicine is formally free. If you don’t have insurance, you still pay — either for medicine or for procedures. Therefore, the issue of financial accessibility remains key for most families,” he said.
According to the survey results, in 2024–2025, 68.2% of respondents said they paid for medical services or medicines themselves on a regular basis, 25.1% said they did so occasionally, and 6.7% said they did not pay.
At the same time, 20.9% reported spending more than 20% of their family budget on medicine, another 23.2% spent 11-20%, 39.8% spent 5-10%, and 16.1% spent less than 5%.
Maksym Urakin, PhD in Economics and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, commenting on the survey data, said that high proportions of healthcare costs affect not only well-being but also economic stability.
“As an economist, I want to emphasize that medicine is an integral part of a country’s economic stability, and when healthcare costs erode family budgets, it affects consumption and people’s ability to recover. In international monitoring methodology, it is considered catastrophic if a person spends more than 10% of their budget on medicines. And here we see a sign of a serious financial burden,” he stressed.
Separately, participants drew attention to the dynamics of medicine prices and the effectiveness of compensation mechanisms. Thus, 52.3% of respondents said that the prices of medicines they buy regularly had “increased significantly,” 43.9% said they had “increased slightly,” 3.6% said they had “remained unchanged,” and 0.2% said they had “decreased.”
Regarding the state program for reimbursement of the cost of medicines, 13.1% of respondents said they use it, 70.6% said they do not use it, and another 16.3% said they have heard of it but have not used it. Among those who received medicines under the program, 24.7% said they received them free of charge, and 75.3% said they paid extra.
Grigory Soloninka, a member of the board of the Kyiv Regional Organization “VULT” and professor at the Kyiv Medical University, believes that the pandemic and full-scale war have significantly influenced the perception of the reform, but there are also “positive elements.”
“To a certain extent, there are reforms: there are positive aspects and there are negative aspects. But this negativity was largely influenced, first of all, by the pandemic, then by the war — that is, our reforms began, perhaps, at the wrong time. But there are positives from these reforms, and we see that there is a good program for people over 40, screening,” he said.
The survey also separately assessed the impact of the war on the availability of medical services: 48.1% of respondents reported that they felt access had deteriorated due to the war, 36.9% said no, and 15% were undecided. Respondents identified the outflow of medical personnel (60.3%) as the most acute problem in healthcare during wartime, followed by the destruction of infrastructure (22.7%) and a shortage of medicines (13.4%).
The survey was conducted on February 11–12, 2026, using a self-administered questionnaire, with a sample of 1,000 respondents aged 18 and older throughout Ukraine, excluding temporarily occupied territories. The theoretical statistical error is up to 3.1% with a 95% confidence level.
ACTIVE GROUP, EXPERTS CLUB, Pozniy, SOCIOLOGY, SOLONINKA, SURVEY, URAKIN
This article presents key macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine and the global economy as of the end of September 2025. The analysis is based on current data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU), the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and leading national statistical agencies (Eurostat, BEA, NBS, ONS, TurkStat, IBGE). Maksim Urakin, Director of Marketing and Development at Interfax-Ukraine, PhD in Economics and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, presented an overview of current macroeconomic trends.
Ukraine’s macroeconomic indicators
During the first nine months of 2025, Ukraine operated in a “managed economy” mode, maintaining its adaptability to wartime restrictions, but the pace of recovery remained moderate and the investment momentum insufficient. The NBU’s baseline forecasts in the summer of 2025 included a target for real GDP growth in 2025 of 2.1%, which set the framework for business and financial sector expectations for the second half of the year.
“Based on the results for January–September 2025, Ukraine’s economy is showing its ability to maintain basic activity under military restrictions. The recovery is continuing, but its pace remains moderate and is largely based on consumption and external financing. According to market observations, investment activity is mainly focused on restoration and replacement rather than capacity expansion. The key task for the coming quarters is to increase the share of long-term projects in the energy, logistics, processing, and technology sectors,” said Maksim Urakin, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.
Inflation dynamics in September were more subdued than during the peak periods of the year. According to the State Statistics Service, consumer prices rose by 0.3% m/m in September 2025, by 6.3% since the beginning of the year, and annual inflation (September 2025 to September 2024) was 11.9%. Core inflation was higher on a monthly basis: +1.3% m/m, and on an annual basis: 11.0% y/y.
Monetary policy remained tight and aimed at keeping expectations in check: on September 11, 2025, the NBU kept its policy rate at 15.5%. At the same time, the NBU’s inflation report laid out the logic of maintaining the rate at 15.5% until the fourth quarter of 2025 as part of a disinflationary trajectory and exchange rate stability.
“Inflation dynamics in 2025 will be determined not only by monetary factors, but also by supply factors—harvests, logistics, energy constraints, and the import component of costs. In these conditions, keeping the discount rate high serves to contain inflation expectations and reduce pressure on the currency market. At the same time, monetary measures must be complemented by government policies that stimulate competition and supply in the domestic market. Without this, inflation risks will remain sensitive to price and logistics shocks,” emphasized Maksim Urakin.
Foreign trade remained one of the key sources of macro risks. According to the State Statistics Service, in January–July 2025, exports of goods amounted to $23.31 billion (96.5% of the corresponding period in 2024), while imports amounted to $45.94 billion (116.9%). The negative balance amounted to $22.63 billion, reflecting the structural gap between import demand (energy, equipment, critical goods) and export opportunities.
International reserves remained a compensator for military risks and trade imbalances. According to the NBU, as of October 1, 2025, international reserves amounted to $46.52 billion, having increased in September; the NBU also noted that this amount corresponded to the financing of 5.1 months of future imports.
The debt burden remained high. According to data publicly cited with reference to the Ministry of Finance, as of September 30, 2025, the state and state-guaranteed debt amounted to UAH 8,024.1 billion (equivalent to $194.2 billion); of which external debt amounted to UAH 6,063.2 billion and domestic debt amounted to UAH 1,960.9 billion.
Global economy
In 2025, the global economy continued on a moderate growth trajectory, but at different speeds across regions and with increased sensitivity to trade and financial risks. According to the July update of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, global growth in 2025 was estimated at 3.0% and in 2026 at 3.1%, explained by a combination of financial conditions and trade lead-through effects.
World Bank materials emphasized that the outlook remains fragile due to increased trade barriers and high uncertainty; in the baseline scenario, after a slowdown, growth was expected to pick up to around 2.5% in 2026–2027.
“The global economy in 2025 is growing moderately and unevenly across regions, with financial conditions and trade risks remaining key variables. The US is supporting part of global demand, but dependence on the cost of money and the consumption cycle remains. The European economy is recovering slowly, while China is showing growth driven by industry and exports, with uneven domestic demand. For Ukraine, this means the need to focus on competitive niches and systematic support for exports with higher added value, rather than waiting for favorable external conditions,” said Maksim Urakin.
According to the BEA’s third estimate, real US GDP grew by 3.8% on an annualized basis in the second quarter of 2025, while a decline was recorded in the first quarter. Among the key growth factors, the BEA cited a reduction in imports (which are deducted from GDP calculations) and an increase in consumer spending, partially offset by weaker investment and export dynamics.
According to Eurostat’s preliminary flash estimate, GDP grew by 0.1% q/q in the eurozone and 0.2% q/q in the EU in Q2 2025, indicating a very moderate recovery in economic activity.
According to preliminary estimates released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, GDP grew by 5.3% y/y in the first half of 2025 and by 5.2% y/y in the second quarter, meaning that the economy maintained a pace of “above 5%” on an annualized basis.
According to an official government press release (PIB), India’s real GDP in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025-26 (April-June 2025) grew by 7.8% y/y, confirming one of the highest growth rates among major economies.
TurkStat reported that in the second quarter of 2025, Turkey’s GDP grew by 4.8% y/y, which formally meant an acceleration in annual growth, although the structure of demand and foreign trade conditions remained important for assessing sustainability.
“The main external risks in 2025 are related to trade restrictions, changes in regulatory regimes, energy costs, and logistical constraints. In such conditions, countries with high productivity and a diversified export structure gain an advantage in the competition for capital and markets. It is advisable for Ukraine to develop risk management tools for exporters, expand its sales geography, and increase the predictability of rules for investors. This reduces dependence on short-term fluctuations in external markets and increases the stability of the balance of payments,” emphasized Maksim Urakin.
Conclusions
January–September 2025 is a period of relative macrofinancial manageability for Ukraine: inflation slowed to 11.9% y/y in September, the NBU kept its policy rate at 15.5%, and international reserves rose to $46.52 billion as of October 1. At the same time, the trade imbalance and high debt burden continue to pose medium-term risks, which can be addressed not by “stabilization” but by structural changes—investment, productivity, processing, and exports with higher added value.
“In the medium term, the key areas are the development of processing, the localization of supply chains where economically feasible, and the expansion of exports of higher value-added products. At the same time, it is important to maintain the predictability of monetary and fiscal decisions and ensure transparent conditions for private capital. In the absence of such steps, macro stability will remain primarily a function of external financing. If these steps are taken, they can become the basis for a longer investment cycle and a more sustainable economic structure,” concluded Maksim Urakin.
Head of the Economic Monitoring project, Candidate of Economic Sciences Maksim Urakin
Source: https://expertsclub.eu/osnovni-ekonomichni-indykatory-ukrayiny-ta-svitu-vid-experts-club-2/
