Against the backdrop of growing tensions between India and Pakistan, a sociological survey conducted by Active Group in collaboration with Experts Club highlights Ukrainians’ views on how they see our country’s diplomatic position in the event of an escalation of the conflict between these two nuclear powers.
According to the poll, the vast majority of Ukrainians — 90.3% — are in favor of Ukraine taking a neutral position in the event of a full-scale Indo-Pakistani war. This shows that people want diplomatic restraint on issues that don’t directly affect national interests.
Only 8% of respondents expressed support for some form of support for India (4.7% — full support, 3.3% — partial support). As for Pakistan, only 1.6% supported this country (0.3% — partial support, 1.3% — full support for Pakistan’s position).
These results echo Ukrainians’ broader perceptions of these two countries. According to separate surveys
26.7% of Ukrainians have a positive attitude toward India, while 55.3% are neutral.
26.7% have a positive attitude toward Pakistan, while 55.3% are neutral.
“The predominance of neutrality in the choice of diplomatic course towards India and Pakistan indicates a low level of inclusion of the topic in Ukraine’s information space. At the same time, this is a sign of a mature approach to foreign policy in the eyes of citizens,” notes Maxim Urakin, PhD in Economics and founder of Experts Club.
Despite the fact that some respondents show moderate sympathy for India, the vast majority of Ukrainian citizens adhere to a position of non-interference. This may indicate a high level of awareness of armed conflicts outside their own region.
In April, the sociological company Active Group, in collaboration with the information and analytical center Experts Club, conducted a public opinion poll on Ukrainians’ international sympathies. The survey was conducted online among 800 respondents representative of their age, gender, and region. The aim of the survey was to find out which countries enjoy the greatest trust and sympathy in Ukrainian society.
“This survey confirms the general trend in public sentiment in Ukraine, which has intensified since the start of the large-scale war. Ukrainians clearly associate the support they have received, primarily from the European Union and the United Kingdom, with a positive attitude towards them,” said Alexander Pozniy, co-founder of Active Group, at a press conference at the Interfax-Ukraine agency on Thursday.
According to the survey, Ukrainians have the most positive opinion of the United Kingdom, with a total of 77.2% of respondents giving positive answers, followed by Canada (76.3%) and France (74%). It is particularly noteworthy that only 1.1% of respondents had a completely negative opinion of France. Germany currently has the support of 68.8% of Ukrainians. According to Oleksandr Pozniy, the high level of trust in this country is primarily determined by its long-term support for Ukrainian reforms and the defense industry, its policy towards Ukrainian refugees, and other initiatives.
Ukrainians have a rather moderately positive attitude toward the United States: 36.1% of respondents view the US positively, while another 31.2% hold a neutral position. On the other hand, almost a third (29.9%) have a negative view of the country. According to experts, these results indicate a deep polarization in the perception of the US within Ukraine, caused by changes in American policy after the new administration came to power.
“For many Ukrainians, the US is still a guarantor of support, but it is also a country with an ambivalent role in global conflicts, which can cause mixed reactions in society,” said Maxim Urakin, founder of the Experts Club.
Ukrainians are quite critical of Hungary (56% negative attitude) and Slovakia (34.6% negative).
“These results are not surprising — the official rhetoric of Budapest and Bratislava often diverges from Ukraine’s interests and is perceived as pro-Russian, which cannot but be reflected in public opinion,” commented Oleksandr Pozniy.
The situation with China is no better: 42.8% of Ukrainians have a negative opinion of this country, while only 19.6% view it positively. At the same time, 27.6% chose a neutral response.
“It is particularly interesting that even Ukraine’s economically important partners, such as China (its largest trading partner), receive low support ratings among Ukrainians. This indicates that Ukrainian society values moral support above real trade and does not recognize “neutrality” if it is not accompanied by humanitarian gestures,” said Maxim Urakin.
There is a high level of trust in Japan: 66% of respondents have a positive attitude, while only 3.6% have a negative attitude. Japan is perceived as a country with a high cultural reputation and technological leadership. South Korea also has a positive attitude from 49.7% of Ukrainians, although the level of negativity here is slightly higher at 14%.
Turkey, despite partnership projects (particularly in the field of drones), has a rather ambiguous perception: 46.4% of respondents have a positive attitude towards it, while 12% have a negative attitude.
Ukrainians have a favorable view of Brazil, with 33.3% positive and 9.3% negative, while their attitude toward other Latin American countries is mostly neutral. According to Oleksandr Pozniy, this indicates neutral interest rather than a clearly formed position.
As for Saudi Arabia, 25.2% of Ukrainians have a positive attitude, while 9.5% have a negative one. The remaining respondents either took a neutral position or did not answer.
“These countries inspire trust thanks to their efforts to achieve peace in Ukraine, in particular through prisoner exchanges, and they also act as a negotiating platform and are of interest in the economic sphere,” Urakin believes.
The findings of the study, as emphasized by Oleksandr Pozniy, are an indicator of international trust and potential for the development of bilateral relations between Ukraine and other countries.
Maksym Urakin added that the image of countries in the eyes of Ukrainians can be improved through support for projects aimed at rebuilding Ukraine (even without military involvement), establishing direct dialogue through embassies and public diplomacy projects, explaining their position through historical context, and not avoiding publicity.
The presentation is available here.
In April, the sociological company Active Group, together with the Experts Club information and analytical center, conducted a public opinion survey on international sympathies of Ukrainians. The survey was conducted online among 800 respondents, representative of age, gender and regions. The purpose of the study was to find out which countries enjoy the greatest trust and sympathy in Ukrainian society.
“This study confirms the general vector of public sentiment in Ukraine, which has intensified since the outbreak of a large-scale war. Ukrainians clearly associate the support received primarily from the European Union and the United Kingdom with a positive attitude towards them,” said Alexander Poznyi, co-founder of Active Group, at a press conference at Interfax-Ukraine on Thursday.
According to the survey, Ukrainians have the most positive attitude towards the UK – 77.2% of respondents gave positive answers, Canada (76.3%) and France (74%). It is particularly significant that only 1.1% of respondents were completely negative about France. Germany currently enjoys the support of 68.8% of Ukrainians. According to Oleksandr Poznyi, the high level of trust in this country is primarily determined by long-term support for Ukrainian reforms and the defense industry, policy toward Ukrainian refugees, and other initiatives.
Ukrainians have a moderately positive attitude toward the United States of America: 36.1% of respondents assess the United States positively, while another 31.2% are neutral. On the other hand, almost a third – 29.9% – have a negative attitude toward the country. According to experts, these results indicate a deep polarization in the perception of the United States within Ukraine, which is caused by changes in American policy after the new administration came to power.
“For many Ukrainians, the United States is still a guarantor of support, but it is also a country with an ambivalent role in global conflicts, which can cause a mixed reaction in society,” said Maksym Urakin, founder of Experts Club.
Ukrainians are quite critical of Hungary (56% negative attitude) and Slovakia (34.6% negative).
“Such results are not unexpected – the official rhetoric of Budapest and Bratislava often diverges from the interests of Ukraine and is seen as pro-Russian, which cannot but be reflected in public opinion,” commented Oleksandr Poznyi.
The situation with China is no better: 42.8% of Ukrainians have a negative opinion of this country, while only 19.6% have a positive one. At the same time, 27.6% chose a neutral answer.
“It is particularly interesting that even Ukraine’s economically important partners, such as China (the largest trading partner), receive low support ratings among Ukrainians. This indicates that Ukrainian society places moral support above actual trade and does not recognize “neutrality” unless it is accompanied by humanitarian gestures,” said Maksym Urakin.
There is a high level of trust in Japan: 66% of respondents have a positive attitude, while only 3.6% have a negative attitude. Japan is perceived as a country with a high cultural reputation and technological leadership. South Korea also has a positive attitude from 49.7% of Ukrainians, although the level of negativity is slightly higher at 14%.
Turkey, despite partnership projects (particularly in the field of drones), has a rather ambiguous perception: 46.4% of respondents have a positive attitude toward it, and 12% have a negative attitude.
Ukrainians have a favorable attitude toward Brazil, with 33.3% positive versus 9.3% negative, and mostly neutral attitudes toward other Latin American countries. This, according to Oleksandr Poznyi, indicates a neutral interest rather than a clearly defined position.
Regarding Saudi Arabia, 25.2% of Ukrainians have a positive attitude, and 9.5% have a negative attitude. The rest of the respondents either have a neutral position or refrained from answering.
“These countries are trustworthy due to their efforts to achieve peace in Ukraine, including prisoner exchanges, and also act as a negotiation platform, and they are also of interest in the economic sphere,” Urakin said.
According to Mr. Poznyi, the findings of the study are an indicator of international trust and the potential for the development of bilateral relations between Ukraine and other countries.
Maksym Urakin, in turn, added that the image of states in the perception of Ukrainians can be improved by supporting projects to restore Ukraine (even without military involvement), establishing direct dialogue through embassies and public diplomacy projects, explaining their position through the historical context without avoiding publicity.
ACTIVE GROUP, DIPLOMACY, EXPERTS CLUB, Posniy, SOCIOLOGY, URAKIN
The article presents key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the world economy for January-December 2024. The analysis is based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, the IMF, the World Bank, and the United Nations, on the basis of which Maksim Urakin, PhD in Economics, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world. Such key aspects as the dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, unemployment, foreign trade and public debt of Ukraine, as well as global macroeconomic trends were considered.
Ukraine’s macroeconomic performance
Ukraine’s economy showed moderate growth in 2024 despite ongoing challenges related to war and external economic factors. According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the country’s real GDP grew by 2.9% year-on-year . Nominal GDP amounted to UAH 7.66 trillion, with a deflator at 12.3%.
“Despite the challenges associated with the war and unstable geopolitical situation, Ukraine has managed to hold macroeconomic stability. GDP growth of 2.9% is a signal of economic recovery and investor confidence,” Maksim Urakin noted.
Inflation remains a significant problem for the economy. According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, annual inflation reached 12% in December 2024, accelerating from 11.2% in November . Consumer prices rose by 1.4% in December compared to November.
“The rise in inflation is a worrying signal. It is the result not only of internal factors, but also of external pressures: rising import prices, energy risks, as well as exchange rate fluctuations. The policy of the National Bank will play a crucial role in stabilizing the situation,” the expert explained.
The negative balance of foreign trade in goods in January-November 2024 increased by 3.6% compared to the same period of 2023, reaching $25.239 billion . Exports rose 16.5% to $38.423 billion and imports rose 11% to $63.662 billion.
“The increase in the negative trade balance suggests that imports are outpacing exports. Ukraine should focus on expanding its export potential and supporting strategic industries: agro-industrial complex, IT and machine building,” Urakin emphasized.
Ukraine’s international reserves reached $43.788 billion as of January 1, 2025, having increased by 9.7% in December.
“This is a positive signal. Reserves are growing due to receipts from international partners. This ensures macro-financial stability and stability of the hryvnia,” the expert said.
Global economy
According to IMF forecasts, global economic growth in 2024 amounted to 3.2% . However, geopolitical instability, trade wars and slowing growth in key economies continue to put pressure on the outlook.
“The global economy is recovering but remains vulnerable. Geopolitical risks, high interest rates and lower consumer demand in developed countries are the main factors of instability,” said Urakin.
The U.S. economy showed stable growth. According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the country’s GDP grew by 2.4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024, helped by a rise in consumer spending
“Strong domestic demand is a driver of the U.S. economy. However, rising debt burdens and expensive credit could slow the momentum in 2025,” the economist said.
The Eurozone economy showed weak growth rates. In the fourth quarter of 2024, Eurozone GDP grew by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter .
India continues to show stable growth. According to the Indian government, the country’s GDP grew by 8.2% in 2024.
China’s economy grew 4.6% in the third quarter of 2024, but the forecast for the year was lowered to 4.8% due to weak domestic demand and difficulties in the real estate sector.
“China needs to restart domestic consumption. Without demand stimulus, growth may slow down even more,” the expert emphasized.
Conclusion
Economic indicators of Ukraine and the world for 2024 show a mixed picture. GDP growth and positive signals in global markets are combined with inflation risks and foreign trade imbalances. The global economy is also under pressure from multiple uncertainties.
“For Ukraine, the key challenges remain structural reforms, increasing exports, modernizing infrastructure and actively attracting investment. This is the key to sustainable economic growth in 2025 and beyond,” summarized Maksim Urakin.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts a significant increase in the US national debt over the next 30 years. According to CBO’s forecast, the national debt will reach 100% of GDP in the current fiscal year and increase to a record 107% of GDP in fiscal year 2029. By 2025, the figure is expected to reach 156% of GDP.
“Rising public debt will slow economic growth, lead to higher interest payments to foreign debt holders, and pose significant risks to budget and economic projections,” the CBO said in its review.
Earlier this week, international rating agency Moody’s warned that import duties imposed by US President Donald Trump could prevent the country from getting its growing budget deficit under control.
The CBO expects the US budget deficit to increase to 7.3% of GDP by 2055 from 6.4% of GDP in 2024. The forecast for 2025 is 6.2% of GDP.
The CBO forecast assumes a slowdown in US economic growth this year to 2.1% from 2.8% in 2024. Earlier, Experts Club and Maksim Urakin released a video analysis of the state of debt in the world, see more details on the YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/gq7twYrWuqE
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced the dissolution of parliament on Sunday and new elections on April 28.
“I have just asked the Governor General to dissolve parliament and call a federal election on April 28,” he wrote on social media site X.
“We must build the strongest economy in the G7. We must deal with President Trump’s tariffs. Canadians deserve a choice about who should lead these efforts for our country,” the prime minister emphasized.
Earlier, Experts Club and Maksim Urakin released a video analysis on the most important elections in the world in 2025 – https://youtu.be/u1NMbFCCRx0?si=AOtHGDT1kGNdZd2g
