Business news from Ukraine

UKRAINIAN MACRO SUMMARY OF 2021 – STATISTICS BEFORE WAR

Real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in the fourth quarter of 2021 grew by 5.9% compared to the fourth quarter of 2020 after rising by 2.7% in the third quarter, the State Statistics Service published such a preliminary estimate. Fitch Ratings forecasts GDP growth of 2.9% in 2022, from 3.0% in 2021, a 1pp downward revision from the August review due to slowing growth in real wages and private consumption, a drag on domestic demand from heightened geopolitical risk, and the high gas price.
The level of the shadow economy in Ukraine in January-September 2021 amounted to 31% of GDP, which is 1 p.p. less compared to the corresponding period in 2020, the Ministry of Economy said.
In 2021 inflation in Ukraine rose to 10% from 5% in 2020 and 4.1% in 2019, while underlying inflation rose to 7.9% against 4.5% a year earlier.
Since 2014, the conflict with the Russian Federation has cost Ukraine 19.9% of its pre-conflict GDP annually, totaling $280 billion in lost GDP in 2014-2020.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade balance decreased by only 0.2% in 2021 compared to 2020, from $0.678 billion to $0.676 billion.
The surplus of Ukraine’s foreign trade in services decreased by 4.2% in 2021 compared to 2020, to $5.563 billion (in 2020, the surplus was at $5.809 billion), the State Statistics Service reported. The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods decreased by 8.1% in 2021 compared to 2020, to $4.728 billion from $5.144 billion.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in January 2022 accelerated to 1.3% from 0.6% in December and 0.8% in November 2021, the State Statistics Service reported.
As of February 25, state budget revenues amounted to UAH 97 billion, including a payment in the amount of UAH 18.8 billion from the National Bank of Ukraine, and there are all possibilities to make payments, Minister of Finance Serhiy Marchenko has said.
Ukraine sold industrial products (goods, services) for UAH 3.584 trillion in 2021, which is 44.5% more than in 2020 (UAH 2.481 trillion), including for UAH 1.019 trillion outside the country.
Since the beginning of 2021/22 (July-June) and as of February 21, Ukraine has exported 42.54 million tonnes of grain and leguminous crops, which is 37.3% higher than the figures for the same date of the previous year.
Real wages in Ukraine in December 2021 increased by 11.9% compared to December 2020, and compared to November 2021, the growth was 21.5%.
Publisher of “Open4Business”, PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin.

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MACRO SUMMARY OF UKRAINIAN ECONOMY IN NOVEMBER 2021

Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021 will amount to 3.4% instead of 4.1% expected in April, and economic growth in 2022 is projected at 3.6% instead of 3.7%, such a consensus forecast was posted by the Ministry of Economy on its website.
The direct public debt of Ukraine by the end of 2021 will be cut to 56.9% of GDP, and by 2024 to 47%, Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko said, presenting a strategy for managing public debt until 2030 at a government meeting on Thursday.
The ICU Group has downgraded its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021 to 2.9% from 5.2% in the spring forecast, Head of ICU Macroeconomic Research Vitaliy Vavryschuk has said.
The real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in the third quarter of 2021 increased by 2.7% compared to the same period in 2020, the State Statistics Service reported such an updated estimate, while earlier it estimated growth in mid-November at 2.4%.
Alfa Bank (Kyiv) expects real GDP growth in Ukraine in 2022 by 3.4% after its projected growth of 3% over 2021 and a slowdown in the average annual inflation in 2022 to 8.6%, which is 0. 8 percentage points below the expected average annual inflation rate in 2021 (9.4%). Oxford Economics has worsened expectations of real GDP growth in Ukraine in 2022 to 2.8% compared to 3.4% in the November forecast, by the end of 2021 it expects the country’s economy to grow by 3.1% of GDP, as follows from materials of the December forecast, which are available to Interfax-Ukraine.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-October 2021 decreased by 27.7% compared to January-October 2020 – to $2.565 billion from $3.547 billion.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine on an annual basis in November 2021 slowed to 10.3% from 10.9% in October and from 11% in September.
The total public debt of Ukraine in November increased by 1.64% in US dollars and amounted to $94.15 billion, as well as by 4.92% in hryvnia – to UAH 2.558 trillion, according to data on the website of the Ministry of Finance, published on Wednesday.
Industrial production in Ukraine in November 2021 increased by 0.4% versus November 2020, which is worse than an increase of 1.4% in October, but better than a decline of 0.7% in September, the State Statistics Service said.
Real wages in Ukraine increased by 8% in November 2021 year-over-year, and compared to October of this year, the growth was 0.9%.
Ukraine in 2021 has a record harvest of grain, legumes and oilseeds of 106 million tonnes: cereals and legumes – 84 million tonnes and oilseeds – 22.6 million tonnes, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine Roman Leschenko said on Facebook. Ukraine since the beginning of the 2021/2022 marketing year (MY, July-June) and as of December 29 had exported 31.57 million tonnes of grain and leguminous crops, which is 21.1% more than the indicators for the same date of the previous MY.
The volume of construction work performed in Ukraine in November 2021 decreased by 2.7% compared to November 2020.
Publisher of “Open4Business”, PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin.
Previously Experts Business Club created a video summary dedicated to macroeconomics. Full video watch here

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EXPERTS ANALYZE PRELIMINARY MACROECONOMIC RESULTS OF YEAR – VIDEO

The Experts Club continues a series of programs dedicated to the macroeconomics of Ukraine. The new issue analyzes the preliminary results of 2021.
“We create such analytical videos in order to increase the level of knowledge of the population in the field of economics and for easy visualization of a huge number of figures. Such content, of course, is not a “mass market,” but we do not strive for it either. We focus on a thinking and searching audience,” founder of the Experts Club project Maksim Urakin said.
The issue analyzes the change in the number of the population of Ukraine, the current unemployment rates, presents the labor market in the regional context. In addition, GDP indicators are given, the main trade partners of the country are named, trends and plans for the payment of Ukraine’s internal and external debt, as well as indicators of retail and inflation, are analyzed.
The video contains a large number of author’s charts, histograms, which conveniently illustrate the main macroeconomic trends.
The Experts Club is dedicated to political science, economics, science, futurology, contains expert opinions and analysis of the topics discussed.
This video is available for viewing at the link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUs6fF–F-c
You can subscribe to the channel at the Experts Club – YouTube link

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“GREAT TASTING OF UKRAINIAN WINES” WAS HELD AT MINISTRY OF AGRARIAN POLICY OF UKRAINE

On December 30, 2021, as a result of the annual work of Ukrainian winemakers and relevant associations, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine held the ” Great Tasting of Ukrainian Wines.”


Event organizers:
Ukrsadvinprom public union
– the Ukrainian Association of Winemakers and Sommeliers (http://www.sommelier.in.ua/spip.php?rubrique28)
– the Association of Craft Wine Producers
– the Association of Cavistes of Ukraine
– the Experts Club
The purpose of the event: popularization of wines of Ukraine by presenting the range of sparkling and still wines, both from well-known large producers and from small (craft) winemakers.
The presentation was attended by:
– Roman Leschenko – Minister of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine
-Volodymyr Pechko- head of Ukrsadvinprom
– Natalia Blahopoluchna – President of the Ukrainian Association of Winemakers and Sommeliers and the Association of Cavistes of Ukraine
-Svitlana Tsybak – President of the Association of Craft Wine Producers of Ukraine
– Heads and representatives of the departments of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy
– Representatives of wine producers and specialized organizations


20 producers presented their wines for tasting:
• Prince Trubetskoi Winery
• Oreanda
• Villa Krim
• Koblevo
• Chizay
• Beykush Winery
• Guliev Wines
• Frumushika-Nova
• Driukivski Wines
• Babchuk Winery
• Narovylo
• Gigineishvili Wine House
• Villa Tinta
• Sadyba Sterkh
• Slivino
• Bohdan’s Winery
• Grapes Odesa
• Don Alejandro
• Kalyus Winery
• Stakhovsky Winery
The presented samples (there were more than 50 of them) were from different grape varieties, such as the international group of varieties – Chardonnay, Riesling, Merlot, Cabernet Sauvignon, Pinot Noir, and local grape varieties – Sukholymansky, Chersegi, Saperavi, Odesa Black.
Brut category sparkling wines (white and rosé) were in the aperitif part of the presentation, and then white, rosé, orange and red dry wines from different regions of Ukraine amazed everyone with their quality, namely, from Odesa, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Zakarpattia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Khmelnytsky, Vinnytsia.
In his welcoming speech, Minister of Agrarian Policy Roman Leschenko stressed the importance of abolishing the excise tax on dry wines from January 1, 2022, which will promote domestic wines and facilitate the work of winemakers, and thanked everyone for organizing such an important event and congratulated the audience on the coming year 2022!
Let’s go to the New Year with Ukrainian wine!
Interfax-Ukraine News Agency is an information partner of this event and other events of Ukrsadvinprom.

Special partner of the event – company Sophienwald, hand-made glasses from Austria.

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SCIENTIFIC-PRACTICAL SEMINAR OF WINEMAKING. HISTORY AND MODERNITY OF UKRAINIAN WINEMAKING IN KYIV REGION

The Kyiv analytical center Experts Club hosted another event to promote Ukrainian wine and the development of the Ukrainian wine industry, as well as to analyze the products of the best domestic wine producers. The event was held with the participation and support of the Ukrsadvinprom association.

The event was organized by the Agricultural Department of Kyiv Regional State Administration, the Department of Tourism of Kyiv Regional State Administration, Ukrsadvinprom, the Experts Club, NGO Ukrainian Association of Winemakers and Sommeliers, NGO Association of Cavistes of Ukraine.

The event was held to promote Ukrainian winemakers. Among the winemakers the event was attended by Hryhoriy Kulinichenko Winery, Wine Idea winery, Biologist Craft Winery, Cassia family winery, Trypilske Nouveau winery, Willa Lamash winery, Narovylo winery.

Among the guests and tasters of Ukrainian wines were Volodymyr Pechko (the head of Ukrsadvinprom), Maksim Urakin (the founder of the Experts Club), Natalia Blahopoluchna (the head of the Ukrainian Association of Winemakers and Sommeliers), Olena Pavlenko (the director of SOPHIENWALD Ukraine) , Mykola Blahopoluchny (the director of the Ukrainian Association of Winemakers and Sommeliers), Andriy Kravchenko (a representative of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine), Andriy Ponomarenko (a representative of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine), Kostiantyn Dovhal (the head of the agro-industrial department of Kyiv Regional State Administration), Hanna Kutsenko (the head of the tourism department of Kyiv Regional State Administration), Olha Zhurova (the deputy chief of staff of Kyiv Regional State Administration), Maryna Radova (the head of the tourism and promotion department of Kyiv City State Administration), Petro Levchuk (the deputy head of the economic development department, the head for entrepreneurship and investment in the economics and digitization department of Kyiv Regional State Administration) and others.

Within the framework of the meeting, an organoleptic analysis of the quality of samples of the leading Ukrainian wine producers was conducted.

Tasting wine from Kyiv region was held in glasses of the Austrian company SOPHIENWALD.

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PUBLIC ORGANIZATION UKRSADVINPROM AND AGRARIAN MINISTRY WANT TO REMOVE WINE FROM LIST OF EXCISABLE GOODS

The public organization Association of Gardeners, Grape Growers and Winemakers of Ukraine (Ukrsadvinprom) and the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food have begun work on the creation of a viticultural register to record the production and consumption of grapes and wine in Ukraine, which will allow to cancel the licensing of wine and remove it from the list of excisable goods.
This was announced by Head of the public organization Volodymyr Pechko at a press conference at Interfax-Ukraine on Friday.
Ukrsadvinprom and the Ministry of Agrarian Policy begin to work on the creation of a viticultural register, which is necessary for the correct regulation of the market, namely, on the creation of three types of obligatory declarations: how many grapes you produced, how much wine you made from these grapes, and how much wine you have left at the end of the year,” Pechko said.

According to him, the state with the help of these three declarations will be able to effectively analyze the production, sales volumes and carryover stocks of grapes and wine in the country, which in the future will allow it to abandon the need to license wine and abolish the excise tax from it.
He added that, according to Ukrainian law, wine is a food product that should not be subject to excise tax.
“I believe that this will lead to an increase in the number of wineries. We are working to ensure that such ‘chateau’ [wineries] are created in Ukraine. These do not have to be giant enterprises,” Pechko said.
In addition, Ukrsadvinprom intends in 2022 to join the OIV (International Organization of Vine and Wine), which controls 85% of the world wine market.

“We are planning to enter the international organization OIV. This is an organization for wine, which includes 47 states. It is 85% of the world wine market, which is created by the leading countries: China, France, Spain, the United States – and which everyone is striving to join. It is engaged in the harmonization of accepted standards for the production of wine products,” Pechko said.
According to him, this initiative is also supported by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy. The head of the organization said that the issue of joining the OIV is only how much time is needed to complete the association procedure. He admitted that it will be possible to do this next year.
Interfax-Ukraine and the Experts Club acted as partners of Odessa Wine Week.

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