In its April report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered its forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine in the 2025–2026 marketing year (MY) to 12.5 million tons from 13.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.0 million tons (7.4%). Meanwhile, the estimate for Ukraine’s wheat harvest remains unchanged at 24.0 million tons, while the forecast for ending stocks has been raised to 3.93 million tons, an increase of 0.8 million tons.
Globally, the USDA raised its forecast for wheat production in the 2025–2026 MY to 844.15 million tons, while the estimate for global exports was lowered to 221.88 million tons, and ending stocks could rise to 283.12 million tons. Among major exporters, the agency raised its harvest estimate for the EU to 145.11 million tons and for Russia to 90.3 million tons, while increasing its forecast for Russian exports to 44.5 million tons.
