Contrary to forecasts, Ukrainian corn has started to rise in price on world markets due to increased demand from China, Turkey, Egypt and the European Union, according to the analytical cooperative “Pusk”, created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (AAC).
“The expectations of the trade that with the arrival of a new corn crop from Argentina on the world market, demand and prices for Ukrainian grain would fall, did not materialize. Argentine new crop is sold at higher prices than Ukrainian corn. We can predict a rise in prices for corn from Ukraine in the coming weeks,” the analysts said.
According to them, China is actively contracting Ukrainian corn. Other importers, such as Turkey, Egypt, Italy, and Spain, have also started buying a lot of Ukrainian corn. In seaports, the conditional prices for it have risen to $142-145/ton and have been increasing for a week and a half. The supply is sinking, while demand is stable.
“It can be predicted that amid demand, prices will add $2-3 per tonne per week and reach at least $150/tonne on a CPT basis by the end of March,” the experts emphasized.
They said that in April, the main factor of corn price changes will be the information on the grain harvest in Brazil. In April, there will be more reliable information about the harvest in Brazil: the planted areas, soil moisture, and crop condition. This will affect the global market. If the drought continues in Brazil and the harvest is reduced, the price will rise. But for now, this is one of the scenarios. In case of rainfall in Brazil, the situation on the global corn market will be different.
On a DAP basis, Ukrainian corn is traded for delivery in March-April to Italy, Austria and Germany in the range of $192-197/ton, Pusk summarized.
