The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its August forecast improved the forecast of wheat harvest in Ukraine in the beginning of the 2023/24 marketing year (MY) from 17.5 million tons to 21 million tons, corn – from 25 million tons to 27.5 million tons due to larger than expected planted areas and the second highest yield in history.
At the same time, the document notes, due to the discontinuation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the export forecast was kept unchanged at 10.5 million tons and 19.5 million tons, respectively.
As a result, USDA for wheat raised the forecast for domestic consumption from 7.1 million tons to 8.1 million tons, and transitional residues at the end of MY – from 1.59 million tons to 4.13 million tons, while for corn, the entire crop growth forecast is balanced by an increase in expected transitional residues – from 1.89 million tons to 3.89 million tons.
Overall, the U.S. agency increased its forecast for this year’s feed grain harvest in Ukraine from 31.47 million tons to 33.97 million tons, estimating their exports at 21.37 million tons and raising the forecast for transitional residues from 2.27 million tons to 4.77 million tons.
In the update, USDA estimated last MY 2022/23 wheat crop, the same as a month ago, at 21.5 million tons vs. 33.01 million tons a year earlier, and exports at 16.8 million tons vs. 18.84 million tons, respectively, while reducing transitional residues from 5.27 million tons to 1.65 million tons.
The USDA sees the feed grain harvest falling to 33.93 million tons from 53.51 million tons in MY 2021/22, while exports fell to just 30.80 million tons from 32.93 million tons due to a reduction in transitional residues from 8.69 million tons to 2.15 million tons.
Including the corn crop, last MY’s harvest fell to 27 million tons from 42.13 million tons a year earlier, while exports rose to 28 million tons from 26.98 million tons, also due to a reduction in transitional residue from 7.59 million tons to 1.39 million tons.
USDA’s new forecast for the global wheat crop in MY 2023/24 is projected to reach 793.4 million tons, down 3.3 million tons from the previous forecast. Total wheat exports are forecast at 209.4 million tons, 2.23 million tons less than previously expected. Analysts projected final world wheat stocks at the end of MY at 265.6 million tons, 0.92 million tons less than the previous forecast.
For corn, the estimate for this year’s world harvest was lowered by almost 11 million tons to 1 billion 213.5 million tons, while exports were lowered by 2.07 million tons to 196.19 million tons.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its forecast for U.S. wheat production by 0.13 million tons to 47.2 million tons. Exports are expected at 19.05 million tons (-0.68 million tons).
Corn harvest is down 5.71 million tons to 398.82 million tons and exports are down 1.27 million tons to 58.65 million tons.
In the EU, USDA worsened its wheat crop estimate by 3 million tons to 135 million tons, keeping exports at 38.5 million tons.
For coarse grains, the EU crop forecast has been worsened by 6.85 million tons to 136.45 million tons and exports by 2.21 million tons to 10.59 million tons, with the estimated corn crop now down 3.7 million tons to 59.7 million tons and exports down 0.9 million tons to 4.1 million tons.
For Russia, the forecast for wheat exports at the same crop estimate of 85 million tons is increased by 0.5 million tons to 48 million tons, and coarse grains is kept at 8.91 million tons with the crop estimate lowered by 2.85 million tons to 39.4 million tons. Including corn, exports are still expected at the level of 4.2 million tons with a decrease in the harvest by 1.7 million tons – to 14.6 million tons.
