Issue No. 1 – September 2026
Analysis of the Current Situation in Ukraine’s Foreign Exchange Market
The National Bank of Ukraine is firmly keeping the hryvnia exchange rate under control, strengthening its influence by increasing the volume of foreign exchange interventions. As a result, the hryvnia is strengthening despite a serious foreign exchange shortage in the market caused by a lack of funds from exporting companies. The hryvnia exchange rate set by the NBU remained virtually unchanged during the first half of September: as of September 1, it stood at 44.52 UAH/USD, and as of September 15, it was 44.62 UAH/USD. Of course, the cost of maintaining a stable hryvnia is quite high, as the volume of interventions reached $5.915 billion between August 3 and September 4. However, demand for foreign currency remains consistently high, as preparations for winter continue, and companies are therefore continuing to import energy equipment. The difficult situation with grain exports, caused by regular Russian attacks on port infrastructure and ships, is creating additional pressure on the foreign exchange market. According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, total exports of grains and legumes since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year amount to 4.255 million metric tons, compared to 5.162 million metric tons a year earlier. The resumption of Russian attacks on gas stations will also mean a need for additional equipment and fuel purchases, which must also be paid for in foreign currency—with the NBU remaining the primary seller on the interbank foreign exchange market.
Global Context
The global market is experiencing its final days of complete uncertainty, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is set to announce its interest rate decision on September 16. Currently, the Fed is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points. A new report on U.S. inflation showed that prices rose more than expected in August. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index rose 3.4% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month in August, which was fully in line with the consensus forecast. Core inflation slowed to 2.4% year-over-year (the lowest level since 2021), but its monthly increase of 0.3% was higher than the 0.2% forecast by economists. According to CME FedWatch, markets are pricing in a 90% probability of a rate hike at the Fed’s September 16 meeting.
Meanwhile, gold is rebounding strongly. U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% to $4,409.30 per troy ounce, driven by the Consumer Price Index data and, consequently, expectations of a Fed rate hike in September.
The EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1530 USD/EUR in mid-September, although the dollar periodically dipped to 1.1630–1.1648 USD/EUR during the first two weeks of the month. However, compared to August, when the exchange rate peaked at 1.1709 USD/EUR, the dollar has been steadily strengthening in September. This is happening precisely as the Fed’s policy meeting—the “H-hour”—approaches.
Domestic Ukrainian Context
In the first half of September, the foreign exchange market was under pressure from high demand for foreign currency. The volume of NBU interventions is increasing: while the NBU sold $1.018 billion on the interbank market during the first week of August, it sold $1.329 billion during the week of August 31 through September 4. In total, from the beginning of August through September 4, according to data published by the National Bank, the regulator’s currency sales amounted to $5.915 billion, while its currency purchases totaled only $0.45 million.
The increase in the volume of interventions is leading to a rapid decline in international reserves. According to the NBU, Ukraine’s international reserves as of early September, based on preliminary data, stood at $48.66 billion. They had decreased by 5% in August. The National Bank explained that this trend was driven by a reduction in international financial aid, while the volume of foreign exchange interventions remained at a level close to that of July.
Demand for foreign currency among the public is growing because, against the backdrop of stable exchange rates, citizens are choosing to convert their savings from hryvnia to dollars and euros for a sense of security amid high uncertainty and the prolonged continuation of military operations. In August, net foreign currency purchases by households increased by 26% to $0.562 billion, while in July the balance between purchases and sales stood at $0.5 billion.
Foreign currency is becoming not only a way for households to avoid losses in the event of a hryvnia devaluation, but also an opportunity to preserve their funds amid rising inflation. And inflation in Ukraine is rising. According to the NBU, it accelerated to 8.1% year-over-year in August. Among the main reasons are rising fuel prices, as well as higher administrative inflation amid increases in water supply and wastewater disposal rates. NBU experts note that price pressures remain elevated due to the consequences of Russian military aggression and the war in the Middle East, while the intensification of Russian attacks on logistics, manufacturing, and energy infrastructure facilities is increasing business costs and limiting the domestic supply of goods and services.
Significant challenges are emerging regarding the fulfillment of the state budget revenue plan. As Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko recently stated, the government has established a procedure for financing expenditures under conditions of limited liquidity: upon receipt of funds, the security and defense sectors will be financed first, with the remaining expenditures covered only if additional resources become available.
Ukraine has already received the main international aid packages planned for 2026. However, there is news of a new multi-billion package that has already been approved by the European Commission. This amounts to 6.1 billion euros for the purchase of drones and missiles for the Patriot air defense system. As for support for social needs through new tranches from the EU, there is currently no clear information on how much additional funding Europe will allocate to Ukraine by the end of 2026. However, European Commission spokesperson Balázs Újvári recently stated that the European Commission continues to assess the situation with Ukraine’s public finances to determine the country’s priority needs for additional funding this year. Therefore, the EU will discuss potential sources of additional funding in detail and subsequently announce the amounts of additional tranches to support Ukraine’s state budget.
U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: Trends and Analysis
In the first half of September, the hryvnia initially managed to strengthen to 44.46 UAH per dollar, but then the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) gradually brought the exchange rate back to its late-August level through interventions; as of September 15, the exchange rate stood at 44.62 UAH/USD. The hryvnia’s future trajectory depends entirely on the volume of interventions the National Bank is prepared to carry out.
In the cash market in mid-September, the buying rate was 44.20–44.50 UAH/USD, and the selling rate was 44.80–45.00 UAH/USD. Spreads have remained virtually unchanged, ranging between 0.50–0.60 UAH/USD.
Key influencing factors:
· Rising demand for foreign currency in the interbank foreign exchange market. Businesses and infrastructure damaged by shelling require restoration, and equipment is being purchased abroad, which is driving additional demand for foreign currency.
· The NBU controls the exchange rate and keeps the hryvnia within strict limits. The NBU remains the primary seller of foreign currency, and its participation in trading determines the exchange rate.
· The public seeks to safeguard its savings, and consequently, demand for foreign currency in cash is rising. Anticipating blackouts, a harsh winter, new logistical challenges, and possibly commodity shortages, citizens are accelerating the transfer of their savings into major currencies—the dollar and the euro.
· International factors: The conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues, significantly destabilizing international security and oil prices. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump has stated that the war in the Middle East will end after the midterm congressional elections, which will take place in November.
· Market expectations: In the global market, expectations are centered on the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, and traders are forecasting a 25-basis-point increase in the Fed’s benchmark interest rate. In Ukraine, attention is focused on the new strategy of drone and missile attacks on rear cities, which is causing economic losses and heightening public fears about getting through the winter.
Forecast
· Short term (1–2 weeks): base range of 44.65–44.95 UAH/USD; fluctuations may move in different directions depending on the volume of NBU interventions.
· Medium term (2–3 months): 44.90–45.60 UAH/USD. On the international market, the dollar may strengthen in response to the Fed’s rate hike, as the value of Treasury securities—which will attract investors—will automatically rise. No sharp fluctuations are expected in Ukraine, and if the National Bank adopts a devaluation policy, it will occur very gradually with short-term pullbacks.
· Long term (6+ months): In the baseline scenario, the trend toward devaluation remains, as before, and by the end of winter—assuming the situation regarding the state budget deficit worsens and there are fairly prolonged delays in the receipt of new tranches of international aid—the exchange rate could reach 45.80–46.50 UAH/USD. As previously forecast, Russia’s massive attacks on cities, infrastructure, and businesses are leading to increased pressure on the foreign exchange market, as import needs automatically rise. Exchange rate fluctuations will be most influenced by new inflows of international aid, the extent of damage caused by the attacks, and fluctuations in international oil prices.
Euro Exchange Rate: Trends and Analysis
During the first half of September, the euro initially strengthened on the Ukrainian market but then retreated. While the official exchange rate was 51.64 UAH/euro at the beginning of the month, it stood at 51.52 UAH/euro as of September 15. As before, the euro’s exchange rate dynamics in Ukraine are influenced by a single factor: the euro’s position on the international market.
On Ukraine’s cash market, the buying rate ranges from 51.05 to 51.40 UAH/euro, while the selling rate ranges from 51.80 to 52.00 UAH/euro. There is a very noticeable trend toward wide spreads: in the first half of September, the spreads between the euro’s buying and selling rates widened to 0.80–1.0 UAH/EUR.
Key influencing factors:
· On the international market, the euro still outperforms the dollar.
Currency quotes are most influenced by the ECB’s recent decision to raise the key deposit rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2.5%.
· Risks to EU economies are mounting, calling into question the euro’s further strengthening in the global market. Europe’s economic outlook is considered extremely uncertain, and the risk of accelerating inflation remains high.
· Demand for the euro remains high in the cash market. Citizens are purchasing euros—both in cash and non-cash forms—to build savings, pay for their children’s education, prepare for potential migration, and for other purposes. Although the dollar dominates sales in the cash market, the euro’s share is growing steadily in 2026.
Forecast:
· Short term (2–4 weeks): On the Ukrainian market, the euro may trade within the range of 51.60–51.80 UAH/euro.
· Medium term (2–4 months): If the euro changes direction on the international market as a result of the Fed’s September decision to raise interest rates, the official exchange rate in Ukraine may range between 51.70 and 51.95 UAH/euro.
· Long term (6+ months): Next year, the official euro exchange rate could reach a range of 52.80–53.50 UAH/EUR. The main factors influencing the euro exchange rate are inflation in the U.S. and EU countries, the monetary policies of the Fed and the ECB (i.e., planned changes to the benchmark interest rate), escalation or, conversely, a lull in the Middle East, and energy price trends.
Recommendations for Businesses and Investors
By the end of September, fluctuations in the euro/dollar exchange rate may stabilize. These fluctuations will be primarily driven by the monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The dollar may soon regain ground, while the euro will lose value. The dollar will be supported by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to raise the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points. This will affect the price of U.S. Treasury bonds and signal to investors to invest in the dollar.
The Fed is preparing to adjust interest rates. Rising inflation in the U.S. has deprived the Fed of the opportunity to lower rates, and markets are now pricing in a rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting. This will provide support for the U.S. dollar while simultaneously putting downward pressure on the euro.
Politics also plays a role in the EUR/USD currency pair. The U.S. is actively preparing for the midterm congressional elections in November, which means that intense political battles in the U.S. will periodically push the dollar to peak levels.
The U.S.-Iran conflict—the timeline for a resolution remains unknown. In the Middle East, the war in Iran is creating new risks for the currency market, as the situation is negatively impacting the oil market. During this period, investors would be wise to consider several scenarios and multiple currencies when building their currency reserves.
The key is investment security. Although the hryvnia is holding steady at up to 45 UAH/USD, the national currency is best suited for urgent and one-off decisions, while a long-term plan should include liquid currencies—the dollar and the euro.
Investment liquidity—after a detailed analysis of the situation. The high volatility of the euro/dollar pair signals the need to develop a currency plan that takes key influencing factors into account, and at the core of the strategy, it makes sense to plan investments in the most liquid currencies—the dollar and the euro. The optimal ratio this fall could be 50/50 or 65/35 (with a larger share of the dollar).
Diversify your currency portfolio using liquid currencies. If an investor’s plan includes not two but four currencies, it is worth considering the British pound and the Swiss franc. The share of savings in these two European currencies can reach 20%.
The investor’s goal is to make cautious and reliable investments. This means that the majority of savings should be held in liquid currencies, with a smaller portion (up to 15%) allocated to other instruments—among which purchasing three-month government bonds denominated in foreign currency appears to be the optimal choice.
Central banks will indicate where exchange rates are headed on the global market. Paying attention to the monetary policies of the EU and the U.S. will help you rebalance your currency portfolio in a timely manner as part of a medium-term investment strategy.
It’s important not to panic. Markets are often influenced by unpredictable events, but an investor’s strategy is their personal financial plan; therefore, a cool-headed assessment—not emotions—will help avoid risks.
What’s important in the news. First and foremost, news from the U.S. regarding the Federal Reserve Committee’s decision on changing the benchmark interest rate. We are also analyzing statements from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding the war in Iran. We are monitoring oil and gold prices. The most important signal for adjusting our strategy will be a strengthening of the dollar to 1.1350–1.1400 USD/EUR. In Ukraine, the main factors influencing the situation on the foreign exchange market will be the NBU’s strategy for intervening in the interbank market, the state of international reserves, news regarding the receipt of multi-billion-dollar loan tranches and aid from partners (particularly in terms of budgetary support), the situation in the energy sector, and any potential news from the front lines.
This material was prepared by analysts at KYT Group, an international multi-service product-based FinTech platform, and reflects their expert, analytical, and professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for action.
The company and its analysts make no representations and assume no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is,” without any additional guarantees of completeness, obligations regarding timeliness, or updates or supplements.
Users of this material should independently assess risks and make informed decisions based on their own evaluation and analysis of the situation using various available sources that they themselves deem sufficiently reliable. Before making any investment decisions, we recommend consulting with an independent financial advisor.
REFERENCE
KYT Group is an international, multi-service, marketplace-style FinTech product platform that provides financial companies with access to services for promoting their offerings, as well as advertising and consulting services.
In August 2026, the volume of foreign currency purchases by Ukrainian households exceeded the volume of sales by $0.45 billion in dollar terms, compared to $0.5 billion in July of this year and $0.36 billion in August 2025.
According to data from the National Bank, in August, compared to July, cash currency purchases decreased by $68.8 million—to $1.9327 billion—while sales decreased by $17.0 million, to $1.4846 billion.
The volume of cash dollar purchases by the public in August increased by $28.9 million to $1,352.1 million, while sales decreased by $56.1 million to $1,034.6 million.
In the cash euro market in August, purchases by the public, in dollar terms, decreased by $108.1 million to $499.8 million, while sales increased by $26 million to $367.6 million.
As for bank customers’ non-cash foreign exchange transactions, both purchases and sales increased in August compared to July: purchases rose by $164.9 million to $11.1925 billion, and sales rose by $144.6 million to $7.6579 billion. At the same time, the volume of interbank transactions decreased by $409.9 million to $8,183 million.
On an annual basis, the volume of non-cash foreign currency purchases by bank customers increased by $2,904.0 million, sales by $998.2 million, and interbank transactions by $2,000 million.
In August, the official hryvnia-to-dollar exchange rate strengthened by nearly 14 kopecks compared to July—to 44.55 UAH/$1—while against the euro, the hryvnia weakened by nearly 61 kopecks—to 51.88 UAH/EUR1.
The National Bank’s net foreign exchange interventions in August rose to $4 billion 815.7 million, an increase of $24.7 million compared to July and $2 billion 119.8 million compared to August 2025.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) increased its interventions in the interbank market last week by $56.8 million, or 4.5%, to $1 billion 329.0 million, according to statistics on the regulator’s website.
According to the National Bank, during the first four days of last week, the average daily negative balance of currency purchases and sales by legal entities rose to $210.3 million from $195.0 million during the same period a week earlier, totaling $841.2 million.
In the retail foreign exchange market, the average daily net deficit nearly doubled: from Monday through Thursday, it stood at $46.6 million, compared to $24.6 million during the same period the previous week. Retail purchases of non-cash foreign currency exceeded sales every day.
The official hryvnia-to-dollar exchange rate at the beginning of last week was 44.5505 UAH/$1, and by the end of the week it had weakened to 44.7273 UAH/$1.
A similar trend was observed in the cash market, where the hryvnia’s exchange rate against the dollar weakened by 7–8 kopecks over the past week: the buying rate fell to 44.48 UAH/$1, while the selling rate fell to nearly 44.88 UAH/$1.
Foreign exchange interventions by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) on the interbank market in August remained close to July’s level, increasing by $24.7 million, or 0.5 percent, to $4.82 billion, according to data from the regulator’s website.
At the same time, the official hryvnia-to-dollar exchange rate strengthened by 0.3%, or 14 kopecks, in August, reaching 44.5505 UAH/$1 at the end of the month.
The volume of the National Bank’s interventions in the interbank market last week increased by 6.5%, or $77.9 million, compared to the previous week, reaching $1.27 billion.
According to the NBU, net interventions in August rose by 78.6%, or $2.12 billion, year-over-year.
From January through August, the regulator sold nearly $33.0 billion in foreign currency, which is 39.0%, or $9.25 billion, more than during the same period last year.
Over the 28 days of August, the average daily negative balance of legal entities’ currency purchase and sale transactions increased to $169.5 million from $151.8 million in July.
In the retail foreign exchange market, this figure rose from $19.4 million in July to $25.9 million in August.
Issue No. 1 – August 2026
Analysis of the Current Situation in Ukraine’s Foreign Exchange Market
In the first half of August, the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine was influenced by the National Bank of Ukraine’s flexible exchange rate strategy, which involves participating in trading on the interbank foreign exchange market through foreign currency interventions. As a result, the exchange rate—which had been attempting to break through the 44.83 UAH/USD mark—returned to the level seen at the beginning of the month—44.70 UAH/USD—by the end of the second week of August. The cost of this exchange rate stability was $2.11 billion, which the NBU sold to importers through foreign exchange interventions in the first half of August. This is nearly equivalent to the amount of foreign currency sold by the NBU during the last two weeks of July ($2.15 billion). Demand for foreign currency in August remains high, and the NBU is the market’s primary market maker. There is absolute stability in this regard. Thanks to the National Bank’s active participation in trading, the exchange rate remains virtually unchanged.
One of the main problems affecting the country’s economy and foreign exchange earnings is the difficult situation regarding the transport of Ukrainian goods by sea. In July and early August, Russia carried out more than 70 attacks on Ukraine’s port infrastructure and 62 strikes on ships. This effectively halted agricultural exports, which fell by 75% year-over-year in the first two weeks of August. In the long term, the halt in agricultural exports threatens to lead to a buildup of grain in warehouses, as well as multimillion losses for agricultural companies. However, this is unlikely to affect exchange rate fluctuations, as the National Bank continues to keep the situation fully under control.
Global Context
Global capital markets are awaiting the September meeting of the Federal Reserve Committee, where a decision to change the benchmark interest rate could be made on September 16. However, there is currently no certainty regarding this. Analysts even predict that the Fed may leave rates unchanged in September, as recently published data showed a decline in U.S. inflation for the second consecutive month. The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 3.4% year-over-year in July, compared to 3.5% in June. This was reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, there remains some chance of a rate hike—some financial experts have already expressed the view that the central bank should raise rates by the end of 2026 to bring inflation, which exceeds the 2% target, under control.
Meanwhile, tensions are rising in the Middle East, and oil prices are highly volatile: on August 17, Brent crude reached $88.44 per barrel. As before, oil prices are being influenced by the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Last week, Iran stated that it had no intention of lifting its blockade of the strait following remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump regarding the possibility of establishing control over this strategic waterway.
The EUR/USD pair has been trending toward a weaker dollar in August—as of August 17, the exchange rate stands at $1.1594 per euro, whereas the month began at $1.1485 per euro.
Domestic Ukrainian Context
The domestic foreign exchange market has seen high demand for foreign currency in August. While the NBU sold $4.1 billion through interventions over the four weeks of July, the volume of currency sold exceeded $2.11 billion in the first two weeks of August.
International reserves are currently at a high level, which is important for macrofinancial stability and, of course, for the NBU’s ability to meet demand for foreign currency. According to the regulator, international reserves stood at $51.2 billion at the beginning of August; in July, they decreased by 0.1%. The NBU explained that this trend is due to the National Bank’s foreign exchange interventions and the country’s debt payments in foreign currency: these transactions slightly exceeded inflows from international partners, the issuance of foreign currency bonds, and the conversion into hryvnia of funds received under the Ukraine Support Loan program. According to the NBU’s balance sheet data, in July the bank sold $4.76 billion on the foreign exchange market and purchased $1.8 million.
In August, the NBU announced a major package of easing measures for foreign exchange restrictions on individuals, which took effect on August 11. Among the key changes is an increase in the limit on non-cash foreign currency purchases by individuals from 50,000 UAH to 200,000 UAH per month. The daily limit on cash withdrawals by individuals from foreign currency accounts in Ukraine and abroad is also being raised from 100,000 UAH to 200,000 UAH. In addition, the NBU has expanded Ukrainians’ ability to pay for goods, work, and services abroad using hryvnia accounts. The National Bank expects that the new package of foreign exchange liberalizations will generate only moderate additional demand for foreign currency, which will be insignificant relative to the size of the foreign exchange market.
Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to receive international financial support, and at the end of July, it was announced that the EU would provide a tranche of 3.47 billion euros as part of the Ukraine Support Loan. These funds are intended to finance Ukraine’s defense needs, specifically for missiles, air defense systems, fighter jets, and drones. As for the IMF loan, the volume of disbursements and the frequency of tranches depend on compliance with the conditions of the EFF program. Two more reviews of the program’s implementation with the IMF are scheduled for 2026—in September and December. If all conditions are met on time, Ukraine will be able to secure over $2.4 billion from the Fund.
Among the pressing economic challenges facing the country as it confronts Russian aggression is exports. As a result of Russian strikes on port infrastructure, maritime shipments have nearly ground to a halt, and the Ministry of Agriculture reports that losses in the agricultural sector could reach $3 billion this year. Meanwhile, the government has already lowered the minimum export prices for certain types of agricultural products to prevent a halt in exports of grains and oilseeds. However, negative trends are not limited to the agricultural sector, as the enemy is targeting major logistics hubs, which is disrupting food supplies to supermarket chains; moreover, rerouting logistics routes could lead to increased costs for producers and retailers. All of this points to a possible rapid rise in food prices, particularly for dairy products, vegetables, and fruits. As a reminder, in July 2026, inflation accelerated to 7.7% year-over-year, while prices in Ukraine rose by 0.3% month-over-month.
U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: Trends and Analysis
Devaluation expectations have not disappeared, but in August the exchange rate remains under the full control of the NBU; consequently, temporary stability is ensured by the regulator fulfilling importers’ orders on the interbank foreign exchange market. In early August, the official exchange rate stood at 44.64 UAH per dollar, and on August 17, the NBU’s exchange rate reached 44.70 UAH per dollar. On the interbank market in mid-August, trading took place at a rate of 44.70–44.78 UAH/USD. In the cash market, the exchange rate changed only slightly: in mid-August, at banks and currency exchange offices, the buying rate ranged from 44.30 to 44.55 UAH/USD, and the selling rate ranged from 44.90 to 45.10 UAH/USD. Spreads narrowed in August to 0.4–0.6 UAH/USD.
Key influencing factors:
• Rising demand for foreign currency is offset by an increase in the volume of foreign exchange interventions by the NBU. The National Bank acts as the main seller of foreign currency and, through its supply of foreign currency, prevents the hryvnia from further devaluation.
• International factors: The protracted conflict in the Middle East is leading to erratic fluctuations in the oil market and rising prices for petroleum products. U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he intends to declare the Strait of Hormuz U.S. territory.
Tehran has emphasized that the strait will be closed or opened solely at Iran’s discretion.
• The hryvnia has strengthened on Ukraine’s cash foreign exchange market. In mid-July, the selling rate for the dollar at bank teller windows and currency exchange offices remains within the range of 44.90–45.10 UAH/USD.
• Market expectations: The main focus is on the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, when a decision to raise the benchmark interest rate is possible. However, recent inflation reports indicate a slowdown in the pace of price growth, which could well influence the Committee’s decision to leave the rate unchanged. In Ukraine, the authorities are focused on ensuring the country’s defense and thoroughly preparing for winter. The government’s main priority is protecting critical infrastructure and building up reserve stocks of fuel and equipment needed for the rapid restoration of damaged facilities.
Forecast
• Short term (1–2 weeks): base range of 44.80–45.10 UAH/USD; the NBU will attempt to keep the exchange rate within the range of 44.70–44.85 UAH/USD through interventions.
• Medium term (2–3 months): 44.95–45.30 UAH/$. The Federal Reserve’s September decision on the federal funds rate and clear signals of an impending peace in the Middle East may, in the long run, contribute to the strengthening of the dollar on the international stage. In Ukraine, the dollar will also strengthen.
• Long term (6+ months): In the baseline scenario, the depreciation trend remains the main factor, and the exchange rate could range between 45.40–46.20 UAH/USD by the end of the year. Key factors influencing the exchange rate will continue to include the volume of international reserves, new multimillion-dollar inflows of financial aid from partners, and the fulfillment of the state budget revenue plan; the situation in the energy sector and the level of protection of critical infrastructure facilities against destruction resulting from massive attacks by the Russian Armed Forces will also play a role.
Euro Exchange Rate: Trends and Analysis
Throughout July, the euro strengthened on the domestic market against the backdrop of the international market, where the dollar was weakening while the euro was gaining ground. The official euro exchange rate in Ukraine stood at 51.27 UAH/euro in early August and reached 51.71 UAH/euro by August 17. On Ukraine’s cash market, the euro has been strengthening throughout August. On August 17, the buying rate ranged from 51.05 to 51.65 UAH/euro, while the selling rate ranged from 51.85 to 52.15 UAH/euro. The spreads between the buying and selling rates for the euro widened in August and ranged from 0.45 UAH/euro to 1 UAH/euro.
Key influencing factors:
• On the international market, the euro is strengthening against the backdrop of a weaker dollar. Currency quotes are influenced by factors such as expectations of a Fed rate hike in September and rising tensions in the Middle East.
• The ECB may raise rates in September. The basis for such a decision will be rising prices in the EU: inflation in the eurozone rose to 2.9% in July.
• After a prolonged period of stability, the euro exchange rate in Ukraine began to rise sharply in August. There is no frenzied demand for the euro, and banks and currency exchange offices have sufficient cash reserves to meet demand.
Forecast:
• Short term (2–4 weeks): On the Ukrainian market, the euro may remain within the range of 51.80–52.45 UAH/€.
• Medium term (2–4 months): if the euro continues to strengthen on the international market, the exchange rate in Ukraine will reach the range of 52.20–52.90 UAH/€.
• Long term (6+ months): By the end of the year, the euro exchange rate may be within the range of 52.50–53.60 UAH/€. The main factors influencing the euro exchange rate remain unchanged: the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision on the benchmark interest rate, the ECB’s decision on interest rate changes, the inflation rate in the EU, oil prices, and developments in the conflict in the Middle East.
Recommendations for Businesses and Investors
The dollar is losing ground against the euro on the international market. The downward trend in the U.S. currency is driven by investors’ expectations of a benchmark rate hike in September, as well as the escalation of the conflict between the U.S. and Iran. A further decline in the dollar’s exchange rate could help slow the hryvnia’s depreciation.
The Fed may adjust key interest rates. A rate hike as early as September could support the dollar in the global market, as the value of Treasury bonds will rise, which is likely to increase demand for U.S. securities, boosting the dollar.
Focus on liquid currencies. Global geopolitics is causing currency rates to fluctuate, but the dollar and the euro remain the base currencies for investors when formulating an effective currency strategy.
A war in Iran can no longer shake the dollar’s position. The acute phase of the conflict in the Middle East is not a reason to abandon investments in dollars.
Buying dollars is a timely and profitable strategy. While the domestic market is experiencing temporary, fragile stability, it makes sense to invest in the U.S. currency as part of both medium- and long-term currency strategies.
Currency savings aren’t limited to cash.
The National Bank of Ukraine’s (NBU) increase, effective August 11, of the permitted limit for purchasing non-cash foreign currency to 200,000 UAH allows investors to increase their holdings in foreign currency accounts at banks. However, cash savings will remain the key component.
Investments in precious metals and stocks are possible, but they will not be the main focus of a foreign exchange strategy. As of August 11, the NBU has allowed the unimpeded transfer of 200,000 UAH from a bank account to non-cash bank metals and securities issued by foreign entities. However, such investments should constitute only a small portion of savings—within 15%—while the dollar and the euro should remain the core components of a foreign exchange strategy.
Safe investments—a guarantee of capital preservation. In various financial scenarios, it is important to identify stable sources of income and ensure the reliability of your asset allocations.
The euro is an important part of an investment portfolio. The euro’s appreciation to 51.70 UAH/EUR opens up new opportunities for investors: either to make a quick profit by selling a portion of their euro-denominated savings, or to purchase additional euros to expand their portfolio in this currency.
Keep an eye on decisions by the U.S. and EU central banks, as well as on inflation and labor market statistics in the U.S. and EU. Since both the Fed and the ECB are preparing to consider rate hikes in September, key statistical data on inflation and employment levels in August will serve as the basis for regulators when making major decisions.
Diversification is the key to investment security. Investors should build currency portfolios across various currencies, and while the liquid U.S. dollar and euro remain the core holdings, it is advisable to periodically allocate a portion of funds to other reliable European currencies, including the British pound and the Swiss franc. It is also advisable to monitor Poland’s economic forecasts to consider potentially converting 5% of your savings into Polish zlotys.
Deposits in hryvnia—only for savings intended for purchasing foreign currency. It is advisable to choose hryvnia deposits with a term of 3–6 months and a mandatory rollover option. The interest rate on the deposit is not critical in this case, since the savings will eventually be converted into foreign currency.
What’s important in the news. Investors should monitor news from the White House regarding the prospects for the U.S.-Iran conflict. Information on U.S. Treasury bond yields will also be important. Major currency news will emerge in September—following the meetings of the Federal Reserve and ECB committees, it will become clear whether key interest rates are rising in Europe and the U.S. In Ukraine, the main indicators of the situation on the foreign exchange market will be the receipt of financial aid from partners, the level of international reserves, the situation with grain exports, developments on the front lines, information on the state of the energy sector and preparations for winter, as well as the volume of natural gas injected by Naftogaz into underground gas storage facilities.
This material was prepared by analysts at KYT Group, an international multi-service product-based FinTech platform, and reflects their expert, analytical, and professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for action.
The company and its analysts make no representations and assume no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is,” without any additional warranties of completeness, obligations regarding timeliness, or updates or additions.
Users of this material should independently assess risks and make informed decisions based on their own evaluation and analysis of the situation using various available sources that they themselves deem sufficiently reliable. We recommend consulting with an independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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The National Bank of Ukraine’s (NBU) increase of the monthly limit on non-cash foreign currency purchases by individuals from 50,000 UAH to 200,000 UAH may lead to a short-term rise in demand, but will not have a significant impact on the foreign exchange market, according to bankers surveyed by Interfax-Ukraine.
“In our opinion, there may be a certain surge in demand for non-cash foreign currency purchases in the first few days after the changes take effect,” said Emal Bakhtari, director of the financial instruments sales department at Raiffeisen Bank.
According to him, the proportion of customers who previously found the monthly limit of 50,000 UAH insufficient is relatively small. He suggested that the National Bank would, if necessary, smooth out short-term spikes in demand through currency interventions.
Serhiy Mamedov, Chairman of the Board of Globus Bank, also does not expect a proportional increase in demand following the fourfold increase in the limit. According to him, the limit determines only the maximum possible transaction amount, whereas the public’s purchase of cash foreign currency was not previously restricted by a similar monthly limit.
Currency liberalization in and of itself is unlikely to pose a threat to exchange rate stability at this point, Mamedov believes. Substantial international reserves give the regulator the ability to smooth out excessive exchange rate fluctuations, and the high discount rate should maintain the attractiveness of hryvnia-denominated instruments; however, this model depends to a large extent on the regularity of international financial assistance.
Anton Kurinny, a dealer in OTP Bank’s Global Markets Department, also forecasts an increase in demand for foreign currency but does not expect this to have a significant impact on the interbank market, where importers’ needs and the shortfall in export proceeds remain the more significant factors.
According to Kurinnyi, additional demand may also arise in the cash market following the increase in the daily limit for currency withdrawals from 100,000 UAH to 200,000 UAH, since the cash exchange rate hovers close to interbank quotes and is sometimes even lower than them.
Mamedov identified the worsening balance between goods imports and exports as a separate risk. According to the data he cited, in January–July 2026, goods imports totaled $58.1 billion, while exports amounted to $24.1 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of approximately $34 billion.
According to the banker, a further increase in the trade imbalance and problems with maritime logistics could intensify structural demand for foreign currency and the need for NBU interventions, while the dynamics of reserves will also depend on the volume of international financing.
Oleksandr Pecheritsyn, director of the analytical research department at Raiffeisen Bank, assesses the risk of a significant outflow of household savings from hryvnia deposits and domestic government bonds (OVGZ) into foreign currency as limited.
In his view, hryvnia-denominated deposits and domestic government bonds remain more attractive than holding savings in foreign currency cash, and the growth in household investments in domestic government bonds was primarily driven by their higher returns relative to the expected devaluation of the hryvnia.
At the same time, Pecheritsyn suggests that raising the limit on non-cash foreign currency purchases could reduce the volume of so-called “technical” foreign currency deposits, which households opened for three months to subsequently obtain foreign currency.
“If the volume of such deposits declines and banks need foreign currency resources to conduct active operations—particularly lending—interest rates on foreign currency deposits may rise slightly. At the same time, this will not necessarily become a general trend across the entire banking sector,” he noted.
Raising the daily limit on cash foreign currency withdrawals could theoretically also boost public interest in foreign currency deposits; however, according to Pecheritsyn’s assessment, given the population’s average incomes and savings, this effect will not be widespread and will not lead to a significant increase in such deposits.
As previously reported, effective August 11, the NBU increased the monthly limit on the public’s purchase of non-cash foreign currency from 50,000 hryvnias to 200,000 hryvnias and extended it to include the purchase of non-cash bank metals and securities issued by foreign entities.
The regulator also raised the daily limit on cash withdrawals by individuals from foreign currency accounts in Ukraine and abroad from 100,000 hryvnias to 200,000 hryvnias and eased a number of other foreign exchange restrictions for individuals and legal entities.
The National Bank stated that the new package of easing measures will not pose risks to the stability of the foreign exchange market and has already been factored into the updated macroeconomic forecast, which projects an increase in international reserves to nearly $70 billion by 2026.
