Issue No. 1 – November 2025
The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation in the Ukrainian currency market and forecast the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on the latest data. We analyze current conditions, market dynamics, key influencing factors, and likely scenarios.
Analysis of the current situation on the currency market
International context
The global FX market was influenced by several important factors in the first half of November. The first was the October Fed rate cut by 25 basis points to the range of 3.75-4%. The second was the expectation of fresh statistics on the US labor market and the resumption of the US government’s work. In addition, investors and currency fluctuations in the EUR/USD pair were influenced by expectations of the next step of the Fed Committee – another key rate cut is expected in December.
While the rate cut at the end of October had already been factored into exchange rate fluctuations, labor market data worried investors. And, as it turned out, for good reason. At a briefing on October 29, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that conditions in the US labor market were cooling. In November, this was also confirmed by statistics: according to ADP, American companies cut more than 11,000 jobs every week until the end of October, indicating a weakening labor market. Although preliminary data showed that in October, a total of 42 thousand new jobs were created in the United States compared to September, ADP noted that in the second half of October, the labor market had difficulty creating jobs. This leads analysts and traders to believe that the Fed will have to make another key policy rate cut in December.
The above factors influenced the dollar’s exchange rate behavior, which in the first half of November initially gained ground on positive expectations and reached 1.1473 on November 5, but then began to pull back towards a weaker dollar, and as of November 14, the rate actually returned to the level it was at on the eve of the Fed Committee meeting in October – 1.1625. New labor market statistics, negative expectations of further market cooling due to government layoffs, and the forecast of further Fed rate cuts played against the dollar.
Another factor influencing the currency market is the US-China relationship, but it is not stressful yet. On November 10, China announced that it was fulfilling its promise to combat chemicals that can be used to produce fentanyl, which was a key issue for US President Donald Trump during his talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in October. China has already announced new restrictions on the export of 13 chemicals to the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Improved relations between the US and China will definitely have a positive impact on the US dollar.
Meanwhile, in mid-November, the euro demonstrated a strengthening, in part due to the conservative policy of the European Central Bank, which left rates unchanged at the end of October, stating that inflation in the eurozone remained under control. All three key interest rates were kept at the same level. According to the ECB, inflation in the euro area remains close to the medium-term target of 2%. The ECB Governing Council’s overall assessment of the inflation outlook has not changed. However, the EU is talking about global challenges and uncertainty due to tariffs and geopolitical tensions. These factors remain the main risks to the euro area economy at the end of 2025.
Domestic Ukrainian context
In early November, exchange rate fluctuations were noticeable in the Ukrainian currency market, with the trend of devaluation of the national currency continuing. However, the National Bank of Ukraine’s participation in interventions has a stabilizing effect. Since the beginning of November, the hryvnia has been gradually weakening against the dollar: as of November 1, the official exchange rate was at UAH 41.97 per dollar, and as of November 14, it was at UAH 42.06 per dollar. There are also fluctuations in the cash market, but they are rather insignificant: in mid-November, the average selling rate was 42.30 UAH/USD, while at the beginning of the month it was 42.14 UAH/USD.
Demand for foreign currency continues to be high. Demand growth was also recorded in October. According to the NBU, this applied to both the interbank foreign exchange market and the cash segment. In total, last month the NBU increased its interventions in the interbank market by 27.3% or USD 625.3 million to USD 2.915 billion. According to the regulator, in October the population purchased $162 million more in cash than in September, bringing the total amount of foreign currency purchases to $1.458 billion.
If we analyze the net purchase of foreign currency by households, the amount in October is twice as much as in September – $0.75 billion last month versus $0.38 billion in September. This trend is quite expected. It is likely to continue in November, as the domestic situation in the country remains tense due to regular attacks by the Russian Federation, and the schedules of power outages caused by enemy attacks add to the need to purchase imported equipment, which may put pressure on the demand for foreign currency on the interbank market, and to the formation of household savings, which is reflected in the cash segment.
In the challenging conditions of the new heating season, when the energy sector is under the aggressor’s sights, Ukraine needs additional funds, which should also support macrofinancial stability. The government has announced good news in this regard. We are talking about EUR 5.9 billion from the European Union: EUR 4.1 billion came under the ERA Loans mechanism, the last tranche of the EUR 18 billion program financed from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets. Ukraine received another EUR 1.8 billion under the Ukraine Facility program.
As for the NBU’s reserves, Ukraine’s international reserves amounted to USD 49.516 billion at the beginning of November, and they grew by 6.4% in October. The growth was primarily driven by new inflows from international partners, which exceeded the NBU’s net sales of foreign currency and the country’s foreign currency debt payments. Thus, the situation with reserves does not raise any questions at the moment, and the NBU has enough funds to support the foreign exchange market for a long time and to intervene to smooth out exchange rate fluctuations.
US dollar exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
General characteristics of market behavior
November’s fluctuations in the Ukrainian currency market have been slow: the US dollar has been strengthening, but without sharp movements and under the control of the NBU.
Over the past two weeks, the exchange rate has changed as follows: the average buying rate has increased from 41.61 UAH/$ to 41.8 UAH/$, the selling rate from 42.19 UAH/$ to 42.25 UAH/$, and the official NBU rate from 41.97 UAH/$ to 42.06 UAH/$.
In the first half of November, the buying rate was in the range of UAH 41.66-41.82/$ on the cash market (weighted average rate), and the selling rate was in the range of UAH 42.05-42.2/$. The spread between the buying and selling rates is gradually increasing at the banks’ cash desks: in large retail banks, it amounted to UAH 0.5-0.6 per dollar in mid-November.
Key factors of influence
Forecast.
Euro exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
General characteristics of market behavior
The euro grew steadily stronger on the Ukrainian market in the first half of November: within two weeks, the official euro exchange rate moved from 48.51 UAH/€ to 48.65 UAH/€.
Key observations
Ø Exchange rate geometry:
o The euro’s selling rate in the first week of November remained almost unchanged, hovering around 48.52 UAH/€. However, after November 10, a trend toward a stronger euro was clearly evident.
o The euro’s buying rate continues to move in the opposite direction to the selling rate, and the spread between bank rates is growing, reaching UAH 0.9-1 per euro as of mid-November.
Ø Supply and demand:
o The demand for cash euros is growing in parallel with the growth in demand for the dollar: according to the NBU, purchases of cash euros by households in October increased by 202.9 million to USD 724.6 million in dollar terms, while sales decreased by 6.1 million to the equivalent of USD 314.1 million.
o The continued growth of the spread between buying and selling euros gives financial institutions the opportunity to hedge against a possible sharp change in the trajectory of the euro, which is characterized by high volatility in both the international and Ukrainian markets.
Key factors of influence
Forecast.
Recommendations: dollar or euro – buy, sell, or wait?
USD/UAH
The strengthening of the dollar, which the markets have been anticipating due to the Fed’s transparent policy and optimistic expectations for the US economy, is gradually giving way to some disappointment as fresh statistics are released. Even the easing of tariff tensions does not help the dollar, which, after a short-term jump to 1.1479 in early November, returned to 1.1630 in the middle of the month.
Despite global skepticism about further dollar gains, the dollar will remain the main currency in the savings structure for investors, which means that dollar purchases continue to be part of both long-term and short-term investment strategies.
Since Ukraine has a strong devaluation trend, dollar savings will serve as the basis for future decisions by investors to exit some dollar investments with a clear profit. However, this is a long-term strategy, and possible short-term depreciation of the dollar to the level of 41.79-41.91 UAH/$ will serve as a signal for the next tranche of purchases of the US currency.
EUR/UAH
Like the dollar, the euro is showing a tendency to strengthen on the Ukrainian market. Traditionally, however, the level of volatility of the euro, coupled with high spreads, does not allow one to count on stable, calculated investment income. However, in order to diversify part of their savings, investors can focus on a plan that includes buying tranches of euros at times of a clear depreciation. It is advisable to keep euros in the portfolio, but not more than 35% of all savings in foreign currencies. November is the time to buy euros, not sell them.
Overall strategy
Expectations of a Fed key rate cut and the latest US labor market data are contributing to a weaker US currency. Meanwhile, the ECB’s conservative stance and the EU’s hopes for an acceleration in the eurozone’s economic development are significantly supporting the euro.
In the near future, investors should choose the dollar as their savings base, but not ignore the euro, which, against the backdrop of the Fed’s policy and the lack of positive signals about the revitalization of the US labor market, may well be part of a profitable investment strategy.
In November, expectations of further hryvnia depreciation prevail, allowing investors to plan both a medium- and long-term strategy to strengthen their foreign currency savings. The main rule: no sudden movements, but steadily. The dollar is an important underlying asset that forms a reliable, low-risk portfolio. The euro is an opportunity to play on exchange rate fluctuations over the next 3-4 months. Both currencies are currently advisable to buy for different investment strategies, carefully analyzing exchange rate movements and understanding the likely forecast exchange rate fluctuations.
This material has been prepared by analysts of the international multiservice FinTech product platform KYT Group and reflects their expert, analytical professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and cannot be considered as a recommendation for action.
The Company and its analysts make no representations and assume no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is” without any additional warranties of completeness, obligations of timeliness or to update or supplement.
Users of this material should make their own risk assessment and informed decisions based on their own evaluation and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they consider to be sufficiently qualified. We recommend that you consult an independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
REFERENCE
KYT Group is an international multi-service marketplace FinTech product platform that provides financial companies with access to services for promoting their services, as well as advertising and consulting services.
Issue #2 – October 2025
The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market and a forecast of the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on the latest data. We analyze current conditions, market dynamics, key influencing factors, and likely scenarios.
Analysis of the current situation on the currency market
International context
The second half of October was influenced by expectations of the next decision by the Federal Reserve Committee on the key policy rate. The previous 25 basis points cut in September was a result of the strategy to achieve 2% inflation. Then in September, the Fed began a cycle of easing, and at the October 29 meeting of the Committee, it decided to cut the key policy rate by 25 basis points to the range of 3.75-4%. As Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a briefing on October 29, the outlook for employment and inflation has not changed much since the September meeting, with labor market conditions deteriorating and inflation remaining slightly elevated.
Thus, the US economic outlook is somewhat worrisome for investors. However, optimism in the markets increased in late October, mainly due to messages from President Donald Trump regarding further cooperation with China. On October 29, Donald Trump said at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea that he believed the United States would “make a deal” with China and that it would be a “good deal for both sides.” Trump and Xi Jinping met on October 30. As a result, the US president said that the parties had agreed to reduce overall duties on Chinese goods from 57% to 47%, and China promised to continue exporting rare earth metals.
In general, the dollar strengthened against the euro in October on the back of the expected decision of the Fed Committee on the key rate and the plans announced by the White House for a meeting between Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. So it’s no surprise that on October 29, the EUR/USD rate held at 1.1630. This is actually an echo of positive market sentiment, driven by the Fed’s policy easing and the expectation of an agreement between China and the United States. However, some pullback in the direction of a fall in the dollar remains possible in the near future, as the deteriorating situation in the US labor market may play against the dollar.
Meanwhile, in the EU, investors expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep interest rates stable at its meeting on Thursday, October 30. Later, the ECB will release preliminary GDP data for the third quarter and inflation data for October, but it seems that there are no surprises from the ECB, and the rate will remain at 2%.
In general, the picture for the EU is quite stable, although there are some reservations about further economic growth in the eurozone, in particular in 2026, amid new US tariffs on imports from Europe. The euro is also influenced by expectations about the development of trade relations between the US and China, and the actual outcome of negotiations between the two countries may contribute to some increase in the volatility of the EUR/USD pair.
In Ukraine, the dollar strengthened faster in late October than in global markets, where the EUR/USD exchange rate has shown a strengthening of the dollar from 1.1685 to 1.1630 since the beginning of October. It is worth noting that the scenario of a change in the Fed’s key policy rate has already been priced into the international market, so this aspect will have the least impact on exchange rate fluctuations in the near future.
Domestic Ukrainian context
In October, the Ukrainian foreign exchange market saw a trend of devaluation of the national currency. Since the beginning of October, the hryvnia has been steadily weakening against the dollar: as of October 29, the official exchange rate reached 42.08 UAH/USD, while on October 1, the rate was 41.14 UAH/USD. Thus, the hryvnia has lost 2.28% in almost a month. The exchange rate on the cash market is also changing accordingly, with the average exchange rate in banks as of October 29 at UAH 42.25 per dollar.
Demand for foreign currency on the interbank foreign exchange market is growing, but the National Bank is in no hurry to increase interventions. In fact, we can state that the devaluation is being managed and is being carried out under the strict control of the NBU.
In October, Bloomberg reported on the IMF’s position on the hryvnia exchange rate. The publication said that the Fund was putting pressure on the National Bank to conduct a controlled devaluation of the hryvnia. The IMF believes that devaluation will be a way to strengthen the financing of the state budget, but the NBU disagrees because of the high risks of inflation. Devaluation is indeed partially justified by the possibility of converting funds received from Ukraine’s creditors and partners at a better rate, increasing the volume of state treasury revenues. However, a sharp devaluation would be a rather risky decision. At the moment, we are talking about a gradual weakening of the hryvnia exchange rate, which is fully controlled by the NBU.
In our opinion, the exchange rate fluctuations in October were influenced by three main factors: the strengthening of the dollar in global markets, increased demand for foreign currency from importers, including energy goods and equipment, and the need to be guided by the exchange rate parameters set in the draft new state budget for 2026. As a reminder, the document refers to an average annual hryvnia exchange rate of UAH 45.7 per dollar.
An important trend in October was a marked increase in demand for cash foreign currency from the population. There was also a noticeable increase in demand for dollars in September, when net purchases of foreign currency by households reached $382.7 million. The official figures for October are likely to be higher than those for September. Banks have noted an increased demand for non-cash purchases of foreign currency, which is also an important sign of expectations of further hryvnia devaluation.
The most important factors influencing exchange rate volatility are the war and news from the frontline, shelling of energy infrastructure, and the passage of the psychological mark of the exchange rate – the level in the cash market of more than UAH 42 per dollar.
The National Bank of Ukraine will act cautiously, traditionally adhering to its position of smoothing out significant market fluctuations and trying to maintain a certain balance in the interbank market. The main factors that will influence exchange rate changes are the balance of supply and demand in the market, the NBU’s readiness to intervene, and the rhythmic flow of international aid. It is also important to know what the new arrangements with the IMF will be like, as it is known that IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva plans to visit Ukraine to discuss a new loan package, which may amount to (but has not yet been officially confirmed) $8 billion.
US dollar exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
General characteristics of market behavior
In October, the dollar experienced slight fluctuations in the international market, and the US currency continued to strengthen in the Ukrainian market.
During the month, the exchange rate gradually went up: the average buying rate rose from UAH 41.01 to UAH 41.8, the selling rate from UAH 41.52 to UAH 42.25, and the official NBU rate from UAH 41.14 to UAH 42.08. The dollar is strengthening smoothly and steadily.
In October, the buying rate was in the range of UAH 41.0-41.77/$ on the cash market (weighted average rate), and the selling rate was in the range of UAH 41.38-42.15/$. At bank cash desks, the spread between the buying and selling rates grew throughout the month and in large retail banks amounted to UAH 0.45-0.6 per dollar at the end of October.
Key factors of influence
Forecast.
Euro exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
General characteristics of market behavior
In October, the euro on the Ukrainian market moved toward appreciation in line with the domestic trend of hryvnia devaluation, taking into account the situation on global markets. While on October 1, the official euro exchange rate was at 48.3 UAH/€, on October 29 it was 48.98 UAH/€.
Key observations
Ø Exchange rate geometry:
o The euro selling rate in Ukraine moved in different directions in October, but after October 21, it took a steady upward course.
o The buying rate continues to move actively away from the selling rate, with the spread between the rates in banks growing and at the end of October in the range of UAH 0.8-1 per EUR.
Ø Supply and demand:
o Demand for cash euros in Ukraine initially fell during October, but after the trend of hryvnia devaluation became clearer in the second half of the month, demand in the cash segment increased significantly.
o The spread between buying and selling euros, which is significantly different from the spread in the dollar segment, continues to grow, which indicates that banks and financial institutions are not confident in the stability of this currency: a high spread is always a payment for risk and high volatility.
Key influencing factors
Forecast.
Recommendations: dollar or euro – buy, sell, or wait?
USD/UAH
The strengthening of the dollar in the fall of 2025 was driven by optimism about the start of a new phase of trade discussions between the US and China, as well as by the levels of fluctuations that the markets had already set in advance due to the next stage of monetary policy easing in the US.
The dollar will now play a major role in the structure of savings, and it is advisable to continue buying it in tranches from time to time. However, for short-term gains, a partial exit from the dollar is also possible after a thorough analysis of the investment strategy.
Further strengthening of the dollar and a clear devaluation trend provide opportunities to generate a return on dollar investments. However, globally, in an unstable hryvnia environment, such an exit should be accompanied by additional security measures, such as strong capital preservation strategies and further hryvnia investments in liquid assets. For a medium-term strategy, it is advisable to keep the dollar as the basis of the currency portfolio.
EUR/UAH
The euro is showing an upward trend in the Ukrainian market, and the high level of fluctuations does not allow for a full assessment of future dividends from the purchase of assets in euros. In the medium term, the euro will strengthen against the US dollar. It is advisable for investors to hold 20-30% of their portfolios in euros, given the need to diversify their savings.
It is not advisable to sell the euro at current levels, as the projected growth potential shows levels above UAH 50/€ in the coming months. The euro can be a base currency for speculative transactions due to the high spread and more active exchange rate dynamics.
Overall strategy
The Fed’s key policy rate cut and the latest US labor market data may lead to a weaker dollar. In the long run, the dollar will be supported by new agreements between the US and China, as they currently indicate a de-escalation of relations between the two countries. The euro will be supported by the ECB’s data on inflation and GDP growth in its member states.
Investors should choose the dollar as their savings base for the near future, but regularly review their portfolio for diversification and the presence of other liquid currencies. The euro can be an important part of a portfolio, especially given the unstable situation in the United States and investors’ uncertainty about further economic growth, as well as President Donald Trump’s mixed statements that could provoke market outbursts.
There is a clear trend of hryvnia devaluation in the Ukrainian market, which gives investors good reason to invest in the dollar as a base currency and the euro as a currency for diversification and possible short-term and speculative transactions. A good strategy is to preserve savings by entering the dollar and increase the possibility of profitable earnings on exchange rate fluctuations in the euro. Given the high chances of the dollar strengthening in the Ukrainian market, the US dollar will remain the main means of preserving and increasing foreign currency investments in the long term.
This material has been prepared by analysts of the international multiservice product FinTech platform KYT Group and reflects their expert, analytical professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and cannot be considered as a recommendation for action.
The Company and its analysts make no representations and assume no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is” without any additional warranties of completeness, obligations of timeliness or to update or supplement.
Users of this material should make their own risk assessment and informed decisions based on their own evaluation and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they consider to be sufficiently qualified. We recommend that you consult an independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
REFERENCE
KYT Group is an international multi-service marketplace FinTech product platform that provides financial companies with access to services for promoting their services, as well as advertising and consulting services.
Liberty Finance Financial Company LLC (hereinafter referred to as Liberty Finance) has successfully completed the placement process and registered a report on the results of the company’s first ever bond issue.
The National Securities and Stock Market Commission (NSSMC) registered the report on the results of the issue of registered corporate discount bonds of series A. This decision is the final confirmation of the successful placement of securities among a pre-determined group of investors.
Liberty Finance has become one of the few financial companies on the market to take such a step, confirming its high level of capitalization, financial stability, and the trust of regulators.
“The successful placement of our first bond issue is a landmark event for Liberty Finance and a reflection of our reliability. To conduct the issue, the company underwent a thorough audit and confirmed to the Securities Commission that it has sufficient capitalization and financial standing. The NSSMC granted permission for the placement, recognizing us as a reliable issuer. This demonstrates the transparency of our activities and compliance with high regulatory standards,” the company said.
The issue is closed. The bonds were placed among a limited list of specified investors. They were issued with a par value of UAH 1,000 and a maturity date in 2028.
“The funds raised will be used to ensure the company’s successful operation. We are a systematic profitable business with decent capitalization, which allows us to ensure the repayment of all obligations on the issued securities. Our activities are fully compliant with the regulations of the National Bank of Ukraine, which exercises constant control, and the Commission has twice verified our reliability during the issuance process, which provides our investors with additional guarantees,” Liberty Finance said.
The successful issuance of Liberty Finance bonds is an important step in the company’s financial development and confirmation of its stability in the Ukrainian market.
Liberty Finance is one of the largest licensed operators in the currency exchange market. Its authorized capital is UAH 25 million, and its equity capital exceeded UAH 188 million at the beginning of 2025. According to the NBU, the company is one of the largest taxpayers in its segment.
Last week, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reduced its sale of dollars on the interbank market by $131.6 million, or 17.9%, to $602.7 million, while the weakening of the hryvnia slowed to 12.8 kopecks from 37.4 kopecks a week earlier.
According to information from the National Bank, during the first four days of last week, the average daily negative balance of currency purchases and sales by legal entities increased to $74.2 million from $36.6 million during the same period a week earlier, totaling $297 million.
At the same time, on the cash market, on the contrary, there was a decrease in currency purchases by the population: from Saturday to Thursday, the negative balance amounted to $21.3 million against $29.6 million the week before last. The purchase of non-cash currency exceeded its sale during all these days.
The official hryvnia-dollar exchange rate, which started last week at 41.6027 UAH/$1, weakened to 41.7607 UAH/$1 over three days but ended the week at the same level.
On the cash market, the dollar exchange rate over the past week fluctuated around the official rate of 41.7565 UAH/$1, and the hryvnia weakened by about 25 kopecks to the following levels: purchase – about 41.70 UAH/$1, and sale – about 41.80 UAH/$1.
At the end of last week, Bloomberg reported pressure from the International Monetary Fund to increase the pace of hryvnia devaluation, but there is no information on the impact of this factor yet, except that on the first trading day of this week, the hryvnia fell slightly to 41.7624 UAH/$1.
“The Ukrainian currency market continues to be influenced by the National Bank of Ukraine’s strategy of controlled flexibility… Since the beginning of October, the hryvnia has been gradually weakening against the dollar. The exchange rate on the cash market is changing at a similar pace,” experts from KYT Group, a major player in the cash currency exchange market, described the situation.
They added that there has been a noticeable increase in demand on the interbank market in October, and the NBU has been forced to increase its interventions. According to experts, this trend is seasonal on the one hand, as companies’ need for currency to make payments increases in the fall, and on the other hand, an additional factor affecting the hryvnia was the intensification of shelling of Ukraine’s energy and gas infrastructure, which led to an increase in imports of gas and energy equipment.
“In the short term (1–1.5 weeks): the base range is 41.4–41.9 UAH/$1, with a probable tendency toward the upper limit of the forecast,” according to the forecast for the cash market provided by KYT Group.
In the medium term (2–3 months), according to its experts, the exchange rate will be in the range of 41.30–42.00 UAH/$1. They believe that if the Fed goes ahead with an October rate cut and the risks of a trade war between the US and China weaken, the fundamental movement of the dollar on the international market may strengthen, which will also affect the exchange rate in Ukraine. However, the domestic Ukrainian context of expectations of continued large-scale shelling of infrastructure and a deterioration in the energy sector, as well as the high demand for growth in import volumes, may contribute to a more rapid strengthening of the dollar on the Ukrainian currency market.
“In the long term (6+ months): the scenario of a gradual devaluation of the hryvnia remains. Provided that international aid continues to flow in at a steady pace, the benchmark is 43.20-44.40 UAH/USD until mid-2026, taking into account the current situation in Ukraine,” according to a comment by KYT Group.
Source: https://bank.gov.ua/ua/markets
https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1113033.html
Issue No. 1 – October 2025
The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market and a forecast of the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on the latest data. We analyze current conditions, market dynamics, key influencing factors, and likely scenarios.
Analysis of the current situation on the currency market
International context
The first half of October was significantly influenced by the US Federal Reserve’s decision to cut its key policy rate last month. On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut its interest rate by 25 basis points to the range of 4-4.25%. The Fed aims to maximize employment and inflation at 2% in the long run. But uncertainty about the US economic outlook remains high.
Even before Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s announcement of a new range for the key policy rate, the EUR/USD pair hit a new one-year high of 1.1878, driven by expectations that the Fed would begin its easing cycle on September 17. However, shortly thereafter, fluctuations in the EUR/USD pair showed a reverse trend: in October, the dollar began to strengthen steadily against the euro, which was influenced by several important factors.
First and foremost, trade tensions between the US and China have eased significantly. On October 10, President Donald Trump announced that he would impose 100 percent tariffs on Chinese goods starting November 1. But on October 13, Trump said he would be able to resolve the conflict with Beijing and “everything will be fine.”
Secondly, the strengthening of the dollar is influenced by the situation in the EU, where the ECB does not intend to change its key policy rate yet, as it believes that current interest rate levels are stable enough to “cope with shocks.” Although investors are expecting a rate cut, last month the ECB kept its key policy rate unchanged at 2% (inflation in the EU is also around 2%).
Among the “shocks” in the EU is the unstable trade policy of Donald Trump. While the Fed, claiming uncertainty, cuts the rate, the ECB adheres to a conservative policy of key policy rate stability. However, the ECB may decide to cut the rate if the effects of the US tariffs on EU goods turn out to be more significant than expected. Another reason for a cut could be the unstable situation in France.
Oil prices remained somewhat stable in October, responding to the context of US-China relations. While the escalation of tensions between the two countries stimulated the decline, after news of the upcoming meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping on October 13, Brent crude oil futures rose 0.9% to $63.32 per barrel, and WTI futures closed up 1% to $59.49 per barrel.
The coming weeks will be determined by market expectations regarding the Fed’s decision, as it is likely that on October 28-29, during a meeting of the Fed Committee, a decision will be made on the second rate cut – by another 0.25 bp. However, this will be influenced by the situation with inflation and unemployment in the United States.
The ECB will consider possible rate changes at its meeting on October 30, but so far, a rate cut does not seem realistic. The soonest it could happen is if new statistics show the deflationary processes that the EU fears. The eurozone’s “black swans” include fiscal tightening in Germany, the destructive impact of US trade policy, price fluctuations in the oil and gas markets, and the government crisis in France.
In Ukraine, the dollar is expected to follow a clear trajectory in line with global quotes, where the EUR/USD exchange rate showed a strengthening of the dollar from 1.1724 to 1.1555 in the first two weeks of October. The euro/dollar pair is currently experiencing a lull, but with the prospect of a weaker dollar in the event of further cuts in the Fed’s key policy rate. However, the easing of Trump’s tariff stance on China is affecting sentiment: fears of escalating trade tensions are declining, which is supporting the dollar. However, markets have already taken into account a possible 25 basis point cut in October and another possible cut in December 2025, which limits the dollar’s short-term growth.
Domestic Ukrainian context
Ukraine’s FX market continues to be influenced by the National Bank of Ukraine’s controlled flexibility strategy. Reserves are growing: as of October 1, 2025, Ukraine’s international reserves amounted to $46.518 billion, which is 1.1% more (+$484 million) than a month ago.
Since the beginning of October, the hryvnia has been gradually weakening against the dollar: as of October 14, the official exchange rate reached 41.61 UAH/USD, having lost 1.14% in two weeks. The exchange rate in the cash market is following a similar rhythm, with the weighted average rate as of October 14 at UAH 41.64/USD.
In October, the interbank market saw an increase in demand, and the NBU was forced to increase its interventions. This trend is, on the one hand, seasonal, as companies’ need for foreign currency to make payments increases in the fall. On the other hand, the increased shelling of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure was an additional factor influencing the hryvnia, which logically led to an increase in imports of energy equipment.
Another trend in the fall is the growing demand for cash from the population. In September, Ukrainians bought $1.89 billion worth of cash foreign currency and sold $1.5 billion, bringing the net purchase of foreign currency by households to $382.7 million. This trend is likely to continue in October.
The war with large-scale shelling of infrastructure will remain the main factor influencing exchange rate fluctuations in Ukraine. The psychological pressure of anticipating the approach of cold weather and possible blackouts and heat outages will also play a role. The National Bank of Ukraine has the ability to smooth out fluctuations with interventions, in particular thanks to large-scale international assistance: in January-September, Ukraine received $30.6 billion, and in October, €4 billion in macro-financial assistance from the EU under the ERA Loans mechanism. The regular inflow of international aid and the NBU’s interventions remain the main factors in countering the growing pressure on the hryvnia this fall.
US dollar exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
General characteristics of market behavior
October is a mildly fluctuating month for the dollar: the US currency is strengthening both on the international and Ukrainian markets.
Over the past 14 days, the exchange rate has been gradually rising: the average buying rate has increased from UAH 41.01 to UAH 41.4, the selling rate from UAH 41.52 to UAH 41.84, and the official NBU rate from UAH 41.14 to UAH 41.61. The dollar is strengthening without any sudden movements.
In the first half of October, the buying rate was in a narrow corridor of 41.0-41.27 UAH/$ on the cash market (weighted average rate), and the selling rate was in the range of 41.4-41.65 UAH/$. At bank cash desks, the spread between the buy and sell rates increased slightly during the first two weeks of October, and in large retail banks it was UAH 0.4-0.5 per dollar.
Key factors of influence
Forecast.
Euro exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
General characteristics of market behavior
The euro on the Ukrainian market in the first half of October showed a downward trend, which is in line with the trend on the international market. On a monthly retrospective horizon, quotes fell by an average of UAH 0.50-0.60 per euro. While on October 1, the official euro exchange rate was at 48.3 UAH/€, on October 14 it was 48.13 UAH/€.
Key observations
Ø Geometry of the rates:
o The selling rate went up in spurts in the first days of October, but the main downward trend became noticeable after October 6.
o The buying rate continues to move away from the selling rate, with the spread between the rates in banks ranging from UAH 0.65-0.95 per hryvnia to EUR 0.95 per hryvnia.
Ø Supply and demand:
o Demand for cash euros in Ukraine slightly declined for the second month in a row, with euro purchases declining, but the euro is still among the main competitors of the cash dollar.
o The high average between buying and selling euros indicates both a decrease in demand and a desire of financial institutions to hedge against sharp fluctuations inherent in the euro.
Key influencing factors
Forecast.
Recommendations: dollar or euro – buy, sell, or wait?
USD/UAH
In mid-October, the dollar entered a phase of strengthening amid new signals of reconciliation between the US and China, and the market meanwhile priced in even more strengthening of the US currency in the event of the Fed’s October decision to cut its key rate once again.
Now is not the time to significantly change the structure of savings. The strategy of gradually buying dollars in small tranches remains optimal, which should provide investors with liquidity.
If the Fed leaves the rate unchanged in October, despite expectations, the dollar may strengthen, which will allow you to profitably exit some dollar investments if necessary. For a medium-term strategy, the dollar remains the basis of a currency portfolio. For speculative transactions, short positions are best suited.
EUR/UAH
The euro shows a high level of volatility in the Ukrainian market, which makes it somewhat difficult to strategically manage a portfolio in this currency. Meanwhile, according to expectations in the EU itself, the euro will probably have to strengthen, especially if the Fed decides to cut the rate. This is not a guarantee, but it does create the potential for the euro to appreciate in the medium term.
Buying euros now is a good strategy, as the exchange rate has already rolled back after the summer peaks. The euro can be a logical part of a plan to diversify your savings.
It is not advisable to sell the euro at current levels, as the forecasted growth potential is up to 48.9-51 UAH/€ in a few months.
It can be quite a challenge to play speculatively on short peaks, given the aforementioned high volatility and rather sharp peaks in exchange rate fluctuations. However, the euro can be used for speculative trading due to its high spread.
Overall strategy
High uncertainty remains in the geopolitics and economies of the United States and the European Union, and the ECB and the Fed are influenced by important economic factors and macro statistics for future rate decisions. Investors in the short term should choose the dollar as their anchor, while keeping the euro in their portfolio for diversification and to make quick money on temporary fluctuations. At the same time, it is not worth betting on one currency at a time, as a gradual strategy of buying and selling in parts brings more opportunities.
The Ukrainian market, taking into account the average exchange rate of 45.6 UAH/USD provided for in the draft state budget for 2026, as well as the reaction to the next negative signals of the approaching winter and growing threats from the aggressor country, will have a devaluation trend in the medium and long term. This will provide an additional opportunity to invest in foreign currency and increase the guaranteed safety of foreign currency savings.
This material has been prepared by analysts of the international multiservice product FinTech platform KYT Group and reflects their expert, analytical professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and cannot be considered as a recommendation for action.
The Company and its analysts make no representations and assume no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is” without any further warranty of completeness, obligation to be timely or to be updated or supplemented.
Users of this material should make their own risk assessment and informed decisions based on their own evaluation and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they consider to be sufficiently qualified. We recommend that you consult an independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
REFERENCE
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The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reduced its sales of dollars on the interbank market by $227.2 million, or 40.6%, to $332.6 million last week, the lowest level since mid-April, according to statistics on the regulator’s website.
According to the NBU, it even managed to purchase $1.5 million, which is also the best result since mid-April this year.
According to the National Bank, during the first four days of last week, the average daily negative balance of currency purchases and sales by legal entities fell to $11.8 million from $49.6 million during the same period a week earlier, totaling only $47.3 million. Moreover, on September 29, for the first time in a long time, a positive balance of $49.8 million was recorded.
At the same time, on the cash market, on the contrary, there was a significant increase in currency purchases by the population, as a result of which the negative balance grew to $132.28 million from $34.6 million on Saturday-Thursday. This result is also due to the fact that, after a break of almost a month, purchases of non-cash currency exceeded sales on Tuesday-Thursday.
The official hryvnia-to-dollar exchange rate, which started last week at 41.3811 UAH/$1, strengthened to 41.1420 UAH/$1 in two days, but fell to 41.2286 UAH/$1 by the end of the week.
On the cash market, the dollar exchange rate over the past week followed the official rate, so overall it remained virtually unchanged for the week: buying was around 41.22 UAH/$1, and selling was around 41.30 UAH/$1.
“In the short term (1-2 weeks): the base corridor is 41.20-41.70 UAH/$1 with possible fluctuations and a tendency towards the upper limit. Medium term (2-3 months): 41.30-42.00 UAH/$1,” according to the forecast for the cash market exchange rate provided by experts from KYT Group, a major player in the cash currency exchange market.
They noted that spreads on the cash market remain stable (0.40-0.50 UAH/$), which reflects the controllability of the market and the absence of sharp imbalances that could radically change the market situation.
“The NBU’s reserves remain high, which guarantees the regulator has the resources to smooth out fluctuations. Demand for the dollar from the population is restrained, and import payments, like the behavior of the population, do not create a critical burden,” KYT Group believes.
As for the international context, experts believe that after the Fed’s actual rate cut in September, markets have already priced in a “cheaper” dollar, and now the focus is on the Fed and ECB’s further actions until the end of the year, which will be triggered by macro data (inflation, labor market, etc.).
“Long term (6+ months): the baseline scenario of a gradual devaluation of the hryvnia remains. The benchmark is 43.00-44.50 UAH/USD until mid-2026,” KYT Group said in a comment.
https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1108372.html
