The National Bank of Ukraine’s (NBU) increase of the monthly limit on non-cash foreign currency purchases by individuals from 50,000 UAH to 200,000 UAH may lead to a short-term rise in demand, but will not have a significant impact on the foreign exchange market, according to bankers surveyed by Interfax-Ukraine.
“In our opinion, there may be a certain surge in demand for non-cash foreign currency purchases in the first few days after the changes take effect,” said Emal Bakhtari, director of the financial instruments sales department at Raiffeisen Bank.
According to him, the proportion of customers who previously found the monthly limit of 50,000 UAH insufficient is relatively small. He suggested that the National Bank would, if necessary, smooth out short-term spikes in demand through currency interventions.
Serhiy Mamedov, Chairman of the Board of Globus Bank, also does not expect a proportional increase in demand following the fourfold increase in the limit. According to him, the limit determines only the maximum possible transaction amount, whereas the public’s purchase of cash foreign currency was not previously restricted by a similar monthly limit.
Currency liberalization in and of itself is unlikely to pose a threat to exchange rate stability at this point, Mamedov believes. Substantial international reserves give the regulator the ability to smooth out excessive exchange rate fluctuations, and the high discount rate should maintain the attractiveness of hryvnia-denominated instruments; however, this model depends to a large extent on the regularity of international financial assistance.
Anton Kurinny, a dealer in OTP Bank’s Global Markets Department, also forecasts an increase in demand for foreign currency but does not expect this to have a significant impact on the interbank market, where importers’ needs and the shortfall in export proceeds remain the more significant factors.
According to Kurinnyi, additional demand may also arise in the cash market following the increase in the daily limit for currency withdrawals from 100,000 UAH to 200,000 UAH, since the cash exchange rate hovers close to interbank quotes and is sometimes even lower than them.
Mamedov identified the worsening balance between goods imports and exports as a separate risk. According to the data he cited, in January–July 2026, goods imports totaled $58.1 billion, while exports amounted to $24.1 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of approximately $34 billion.
According to the banker, a further increase in the trade imbalance and problems with maritime logistics could intensify structural demand for foreign currency and the need for NBU interventions, while the dynamics of reserves will also depend on the volume of international financing.
Oleksandr Pecheritsyn, director of the analytical research department at Raiffeisen Bank, assesses the risk of a significant outflow of household savings from hryvnia deposits and domestic government bonds (OVGZ) into foreign currency as limited.
In his view, hryvnia-denominated deposits and domestic government bonds remain more attractive than holding savings in foreign currency cash, and the growth in household investments in domestic government bonds was primarily driven by their higher returns relative to the expected devaluation of the hryvnia.
At the same time, Pecheritsyn suggests that raising the limit on non-cash foreign currency purchases could reduce the volume of so-called “technical” foreign currency deposits, which households opened for three months to subsequently obtain foreign currency.
“If the volume of such deposits declines and banks need foreign currency resources to conduct active operations—particularly lending—interest rates on foreign currency deposits may rise slightly. At the same time, this will not necessarily become a general trend across the entire banking sector,” he noted.
Raising the daily limit on cash foreign currency withdrawals could theoretically also boost public interest in foreign currency deposits; however, according to Pecheritsyn’s assessment, given the population’s average incomes and savings, this effect will not be widespread and will not lead to a significant increase in such deposits.
As previously reported, effective August 11, the NBU increased the monthly limit on the public’s purchase of non-cash foreign currency from 50,000 hryvnias to 200,000 hryvnias and extended it to include the purchase of non-cash bank metals and securities issued by foreign entities.
The regulator also raised the daily limit on cash withdrawals by individuals from foreign currency accounts in Ukraine and abroad from 100,000 hryvnias to 200,000 hryvnias and eased a number of other foreign exchange restrictions for individuals and legal entities.
The National Bank stated that the new package of easing measures will not pose risks to the stability of the foreign exchange market and has already been factored into the updated macroeconomic forecast, which projects an increase in international reserves to nearly $70 billion by 2026.
The National Bank of Ukraine is preparing a new, large-scale foreign exchange liberalization package that, for the first time since the start of the full-scale war, is expected to significantly expand individuals’ opportunities to conduct foreign exchange and financial transactions abroad. NBU Governor Andriy Pyshnyy made this announcement on August 10. According to him, a significant portion of the consultations with the International Monetary Fund regarding this new phase of liberalization has already been completed, and the National Bank plans to announce the final details once the necessary procedures are finalized.
“We are preparing a currency liberalization package that, for the first time, will have a tangible impact on individuals as well,” said the NBU Governor.
Until now, the main stages of currency liberalization during the war have focused primarily on businesses: the NBU has gradually expanded opportunities for paying for imports, servicing foreign loans, repatriating dividends, and attracting capital from abroad. Transactions by individuals, including money transfers abroad, are part of a later stage of lifting restrictions in the NBU’s strategy.
According to sources in the banking sector, one of the main expected changes will be an increase in the monthly limit on transfers by individuals from foreign currency cards issued by Ukrainian banks to cards abroad, from 100,000 UAH to 200,000 UAH in equivalent value. Sources also note a possible roughly twofold increase in a number of other existing foreign currency limits; however, the NBU has not yet officially published their final parameters.
Currently, the NBU allows transfers from a foreign-currency payment card issued by a Ukrainian bank to another individual’s card abroad of up to 100,000 UAH equivalent per month. Transfers from hryvnia cards directly to cards issued by foreign banks remain prohibited.
For hryvnia cards, there is also a limit on non-cash payments for goods and services abroad of 100,000 UAH equivalent per month. Cash withdrawals abroad from hryvnia accounts are limited to 12,500 UAH equivalent per seven calendar days. There are no general limits of this type for payments with foreign currency cards for ordinary goods and services, although certain restrictions remain in place for some categories of transactions.
Thus, if the changes announced by the banking market are approved as expected, the new package will become one of the most significant relaxations of restrictions directly affecting Ukrainian citizens starting in 2022. Above all, it will simplify support for relatives abroad, the use of funds from Ukrainian accounts during extended stays abroad, and other cross-border transactions by individuals.
At the same time, this new phase of liberalization does not mean the complete abolition of foreign exchange controls.
The NBU maintains a managed floating exchange rate regime and continues to cover the structural foreign exchange deficit in the market through its own interventions. According to the regulator’s strategy, the further lifting of restrictions depends not on a predetermined timeline, but on the state of the foreign exchange market, international reserves, inflation, and other macrofinancial conditions.
The transition to easing restrictions for the general public is of particular importance, as such measures are part of the third stage of currency liberalization in the NBU’s roadmap, alongside foreign investments, freer capital flows, and the expansion of other cross-border financial transactions. At the same time, the NBU may implement certain steps from different stages in parallel, provided that macroeconomic conditions permit.
In January 2026, the NBU had already significantly expanded opportunities for businesses by introducing a so-called “credit limit,” which allows companies to use foreign loans raised after January 1 for a range of transactions, including servicing existing debts and additional repatriation of dividends. In April, the regulator implemented another round of easing measures for certain categories of individuals and companies.
The final amounts of the new limits for individuals, the date they take effect, and the full list of permitted transactions are to be determined by a separate decision of the NBU’s Board. As of the afternoon of August 10, the relevant resolution had not yet been published on the regulator’s official website.
According to preliminary data, Ukraine’s international reserves decreased by $70.4 million, or 0.1%, to $51.2 billion in July, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reported on Friday.
“This trend was driven by the National Bank’s foreign exchange interventions and the country’s debt payments in foreign currency,” the regulator noted on its website.
According to the published data, net international reserves in July decreased by $668.9 million, or 1.8%, compared to June, to $36.3 billion.
The share of dollar-denominated assets in international reserves as of August 1, 2026, decreased to 64.7% from 66.5% a month earlier, while the share of euro-denominated assets rose to 27.0% from 25.6%. A year ago, these figures stood at 73.5% and 17.5%, respectively.
The share of gold in international reserves as of early August stood at 7.0%, compared with 6.9% a month earlier and 6.8% a year earlier.
It is noted that $1.6 billion was credited to the government’s foreign currency accounts at the National Bank in July, including $683.3 million from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), $498.7 million through World Bank accounts, and $458.6 million from the placement of foreign currency government bonds.
In addition, Ukraine received $5.1 billion from the European Union (EU) as part of a defense tranche under the Ukraine Support Loan program; however, due to the earmarked nature of this funding, these funds do not directly enter the international reserves. In July, the government converted $3.4 billion of these funds into hryvnia, which correspondingly contributed to an increase in international reserves.
At the same time, the Ukrainian government paid $515.4 million for servicing and repaying public debt denominated in foreign currency, including $433.3 million for servicing and repaying foreign-currency government bonds, $58.7 million for servicing and repaying debt to the World Bank, $6.9 million for servicing debt to the EU, and $16.5 million for debt to other creditors.
In addition, Ukraine paid $174.2 million to the IMF.
The revaluation of financial instruments in July increased the value of reserves by $300.6 million.
The National Bank’s foreign exchange interventions totaled nearly $4.79 billion, which is $296.0 million less than in June.
“The current level of international reserves is sufficient to finance 4.2 months of future imports,” the National Bank added.
As previously reported, in its July macroeconomic forecast, the regulator raised its estimate of international reserves for the end of 2026 to $69.7 billion from $64.8 billion, for 2027 to $73.7 billion from $66.5 billion, and for 2028 to $70.0 billion from $61.1 billion.
Issue No. 2 – July 2026
In the second half of July, the hryvnia was losing ground, but the NBU tried to participate in trading as much as possible and stem the national currency’s downward drift. As a result, as of July 31, the official exchange rate was 44.69 UAH/USD, whereas at the beginning of the month it stood at 44.79 UAH/USD. The strengthening of the national currency occurred only at the end of the month; over the last two weeks of July, fluctuations toward devaluation prevailed.
High demand for foreign currency persists in Ukraine for the second consecutive month. As a reminder, in June, according to official data, the National Bank sold $5.087 billion through interventions. This is the highest figure in 2026. The July figure is expected to be lower than the previous month’s “record.” However, it is already obvious that the hopes voiced by many analysts for a summer surge in agricultural exports—and along with it, higher inflows of foreign currency revenue that would support the hryvnia—did not materialize. Throughout July, Russia intensified missile and drone attacks targeting Ukrainian seaports, significantly constraining maritime shipments of agricultural products.
The Federal Reserve System (Fed) Committee meeting, to whose outcome traders’ attention had been pinned over the last month, took place on July 29. Following the meeting, it became known that the Fed left its benchmark interest rate unchanged, but left open the possibility of a future hike if inflation remains high. The statement notes that inflation in the US remains elevated, partly reflecting supply shocks that drove up prices in certain sectors, including energy. It is also known that the sharp rise in fuel prices caused by the US-Iran conflict pushed the annual inflation rate in the US up to 4.2% in May—the highest level in over three years. Since then, oil and gas prices have eased somewhat, but the resumption of hostilities in and around the Strait of Hormuz in late July raises concerns that fuel prices could remain elevated in the coming months. Nevertheless, high rates can drag on labor market growth; in this case, the Fed opted in favor of the labor market, effectively ignoring price increases.
The dollar reacted to the announcement of baseline rate stability by weakening against the euro—on July 30, the rate returned to 1.1450 USD/EUR and later reached 1.1475 USD/EUR, even though on the eve of the meeting, the currency pair was trading at approximately 1.1360 USD/EUR.
During July, demand for foreign currency shifted: while it dropped slightly at the start of the month, it picked up again later, forcing the NBU to scale up currency sales via interbank interventions. Thus, while the National Bank sold $871.2 million to importers during the first week, it sold $2.088 billion over the following two weeks. There is no additional support for the hryvnia from exporters: the export situation remains extremely challenging, especially given Russia’s frequent attacks on domestic seaports and port infrastructure. This affects not only agricultural exports, but also revenue for metallurgical enterprises. However, support for the national currency is coming from the international market, where the dollar managed to strengthen against the euro in July.
Based on July’s results, a decline in international reserves compared to June is possible, as reserves expand mainly through inflows from partners. However, new arrivals were scarce in July. It is known that this month Ukraine received a tranche of around $690 million from the IMF under the new four-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program. This program provides for credit assistance totaling approximately $2.2 billion. Funds received under the first tranche will be directed toward funding priority expenditures and ensuring macro-financial stability amid full-scale war.
Regarding EU aid, in late July the Council of the EU agreed on the updated Ukraine Plan under the Ukraine Facility. Media reports indicate this involves €10 billion, which Ukraine can access only under specific conditions—the document contains 27 indicators, ten of which require the passage of new laws. The updated plan also revises 34 out of 146 existing program implementation steps, pushing back deadlines for 12 reforms that require more time. Among the new reforms, special emphasis is placed on the rule of law, anti-corruption efforts, reforms necessary for Ukraine’s EU accession, the energy sector, and further integration into the EU internal market. The updated Ukraine Plan has already approved additional funding for Ukraine in 2026—namely €8.3 billion to be provided through the Ukraine Support Loan mechanism.
The new government in Ukraine, which is just beginning its work under new Prime Minister Serhiy Koretskyi, has not yet released precise data regarding its action plan. However, it is known that the Government Action Program should be submitted to the Verkhovna Rada in August. This will serve as an official benchmark for the specific measures the new Cabinet intends to implement and the economic and financial reforms planned for Ukraine in the near term.
The devaluation of the hryvnia continues; while the hryvnia managed to gain a bit of ground in the first half of July, devaluation became the defining feature in the second half of the month. At the beginning of July, the official exchange rate stood at 44.79 UAH/USD, and on July 29, the NBU rate reached 44.88 UAH/USD. On the interbank market in the final days of July, trading took place at 44.74–44.89 UAH/USD. Importers’ bids are satisfied by the National Bank as the primary currency seller. On the last day of July, the hryvnia strengthened—the official rate reached 44.69 UAH/USD. On the cash market, following the interbank trend, the rate strengthened as well: at banks and exchange booths, the buy rate hovered around 44.35–44.7 UAH/USD, while the sell rate was 44.95–45.10 UAH/USD. Spreads in July remained nearly unchanged, staying within 0.4–0.7 UAH/USD.
Surge in USD demand on the interbank foreign exchange market, though devaluation remains barely noticeable. The NBU acts as the main market maker, holding the hryvnia back from sliding past 44.97 UAH/USD via interventions.
Slow and minor fluctuations in the cash market. Throughout July, the rate at bank counters and exchange offices averaged between 44.95 and 45.10 UAH/USD.
International factors: The US-Iran conflict is in an acute phase, the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, and the US has imposed sanctions on two Iranian companies participating in a scheme where Iran forces vessels to purchase “insurance” to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts project that Middle East hostilities will persist for several more months.
Behavioral market expectations: After the Fed left rates unchanged in late July, investors are anticipating the Fed Committee’s autumn meetings, where a benchmark rate hike decision could be made. In Ukraine, the primary focus is on the security situation, winter preparations, and financial aid agreements with partners. Decisions and draft laws from the new government will also play an important role in outlining fiscal and tax factors capable of impacting future financial decisions.
Short-term (1–2 weeks): Baseline range of 44.95–45.20 UAH/USD; the hryvnia will lean toward the upper bound, while the NBU will attempt to pull the rate back into the 44.80–44.88 UAH/USD corridor.
Medium-term (2–3 months): 45.15–45.40 UAH/USD. Clear certainty regarding the Fed benchmark rate level and new agreements between the US and Iran could favor a stronger dollar, which would positively impact the hryvnia.
Long-term (6+ months): Under the baseline scenario, the main devaluation trend persists, and the exchange rate could hit 46.50 UAH/USD by year-end. However, beyond the war in Ukraine and Russia’s intensified missile and drone strikes on infrastructure, the key driver will be partner inflows, which directly affect international reserves and the NBU’s ability to satisfy importer demand via interventions.
Throughout July, the euro exchange rate on the domestic market remained nearly static, with very minor fluctuations. However, everything changed the day after the Fed Committee meeting—the euro began losing ground globally, and in Ukraine, the official euro rate reached 51.27 UAH/EUR on July 31.
In Ukraine’s cash market, euro exchange rate stability was maintained in July. However, new euro horizons are motivating retail sellers to adjust their rates. As of July 31, the buy rate sits in the 50.56–51.10 UAH/EUR corridor, while the sell rate is 51.50–51.85 UAH/EUR. Spreads between buying and selling rates narrowed slightly toward month-end to a range of 0.45–0.80 UAH/EUR.
The dollar is regaining ground against the euro internationally. The euro began to decline following the US Fed Committee’s decision to hold benchmark rates steady.
The ECB made no changes to benchmark rates in July. The level of uncertainty in the EU remains high, and the full impact of the energy shock on inflation has not yet fully fed through into the economy. The ECB is monitoring the intensity and duration of this impact, as well as its indirect consequences, very closely.
In Ukraine, the euro rate began rising in July after a prolonged quiet period. Euro supply is sufficient to meet retail market demand.
Short-term (2–4 weeks): In the Ukrainian market, the euro could remain in the 51.30–51.55 UAH/EUR range.
Medium-term (2–4 months): If the euro continues to strengthen globally, the rate in Ukraine will reach 51.50–52.25 UAH/EUR.
Long-term (6+ months): By year-end, the euro rate could range between 52.60 and 53.60 UAH/EUR. The main factors driving the rate are Fed decisions on benchmark rates, ECB rate decisions, EU inflation levels, and the situation in the Middle East.
August could bring fast-moving exchange rate surprises. The escalation of the US-Iran conflict and wild oil price swings heighten volatility risk. At such times, a currency strategy must be extremely cautious, yet decision-making flexibility remains vital for capturing yield and preserving capital.
Global conflicts are a reason to trust only the strongest currencies. Expected shifts relate to a potential resolution of the US-Iran conflict, which will influence the future trajectory of the EUR/USD pair.
A stable Fed rate provides no boost to the dollar. The EUR/USD pair is heavily influenced by geopolitics, but rate hike forecasts also matter. Investors need to monitor US economic news to timely pivot their currency savings strategy.
Safe investments above all. A small portion of a portfolio can be allocated toward generating fast profits from speculative trading, but the bulk of funds should be placed into low-risk capital preservation—namely physical currency purchases.
Liquidity in the crosshairs of currency strategy. A lack of stability and predictability elevates the role of liquid currencies, keeping the dollar and euro central to portfolios. Both medium- and long-term investor plans should be built around investments in these currencies.
A sharp shift by global investors toward the euro is a signal to concentrate funds in the dollar. The US economy is currently expanding actively and the US currency remains the most liquid asset, so investors should keep approximately 50–60% of their currency portfolio in USD.
Exiting part of currency holdings should only follow thorough rate movement analysis. The rise of the euro to 51.27 UAH/EUR offers fresh opportunities to partially sell off euro assets acquired early in the year when the rate was at 49.51 UAH/EUR. However, it is not time to dump euros entirely, as rates could rise further over the course of 2026.
A balanced currency portfolio shouldn’t consist solely of dollars. If diversification is part of your personal financial plan, adding 10% in Swiss francs to baseline currencies makes sense. Purchasing British pounds can also be considered.
National currency for routine expenses, dollars for long-term investments. The devaluation trend for the national currency persists despite multi-billion dollar NBU interventions to maintain exchange rate stability. US dollar savings remain a reliable guarantee against capital erosion.
What matters on the news front: Investors should analyze everything linked to oil quotes, Middle East developments, and new US-Iran agreements. It is also important to track labor market data and US inflation figures, which will ultimately form the foundation for upcoming Fed Committee decisions on rate changes. A Fed statement signaling a rate hike will be the cue to adjust currency strategies. The next Fed Committee meeting in mid-September will reveal the future path of the EUR/USD pair. In Ukraine, the key drivers affecting the FX market will be international reserve levels, tranche disbursements of loans and financial aid from partners, data on export volumes and port infrastructure, the energy situation, and frontline conditions.
This material was prepared by analysts at the international multi-service FinTech platform KYT Group and reflects their expert, analytical professional judgment. The information presented in this review is purely informational and must not be construed as actionable advice.
The company and its analysts make no assurances and accept no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is,” without any additional guarantees of completeness, timeliness obligations, updates, or supplements.
Users of this material must independently evaluate risks and make informed decisions based on their own assessment and analysis of the situation using various available sources they consider sufficiently qualified. Before making any investment decisions, consulting an independent financial advisor is recommended.
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According to Interfax-Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine has completed a significant portion of its negotiations and discussions with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and will soon adopt and announce a new, substantial package of foreign exchange liberalization measures. As NBU Governor Andriy Pyshnyy stated during a press briefing on Thursday, the upcoming liberalization measures will apply to both individuals and businesses.
“We have completed a significant portion of the negotiations and discussions with our colleagues at the International Monetary Fund. Accordingly, a significant package of foreign exchange liberalization measures will be announced, affecting individuals, including businesses. The National Bank has always prioritized the interests of Ukrainian businesses regarding foreign exchange liberalization,” the regulator’s head noted.
Pyshnyy emphasized that stimulatory foreign exchange liberalization has remained one of the National Bank’s key priorities since 2023. According to him, the regulator supports measures that have a positive effect and stimulate the country’s economic recovery and development.
As previously reported, in the materials for the first review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program, published on its website, the IMF notes that currency liberalization should depend on the fulfillment of key preconditions—including deeper foreign exchange markets, well-anchored inflation expectations, and sustained financial stability—while ensuring that these are balanced with economic needs.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reduced its interventions in the interbank market last week by $59.9 million, or 5.6%, to $1.0145 billion, according to statistics on the regulator’s website.
According to the National Bank’s data, during the first four days of last week, the average daily net deficit in currency purchases and sales by legal entities decreased to $140.9 million from $168.5 million during the same period a week earlier, totaling $563.7 million.
In the retail foreign exchange market, the average daily net deficit decreased: from Monday through Thursday, it stood at $9.2 million, compared to $11.6 million the week before last, and non-cash currency sales exceeded purchases on all those days.
The official hryvnia-to-dollar exchange rate, which started last week at 44.6676 UAH/$1, weakened to 44.8110 UAH/$1 by the end of the week.
The same trend was observed in the cash market, where the hryvnia-to-dollar exchange rate weakened by 12 kopecks over the past week: the buying rate fell to 44.51 UAH/$1, and the selling rate to nearly 44.90 UAH/$1.
