Dragon Capital has downgraded its forecast for Ukrainian economic growth in 2021 from 4.6% to 3.5% due to unexpectedly worse-than-expected preliminary GDP data for the second quarter of this year, the founder of the company Tomas Fiala has said. The growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in January-July 2021 became stronger, reaching 2.1%, the Ministry of Economy has said. The President’s Office estimates the growth of Ukraine’s GDP in 2021 at 3.8%, Deputy Head of the President’s Office Yulia Svyrydenko has said.
The real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in the second quarter of 2021 increased by 5.7% compared to the same period in 2020, the State Statistics Service reported.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-July 2021 decreased by 26.2% compared to January-July 2020, to $1.725 billion from $2.339 billion, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine has reported. The surplus of Ukraine’s balance of foreign trade in the first half of 2021 fell by 46.3% compared to the first half of last year, to $0.41 billion.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in annual terms in August 2021 remained at the level of 10.2%.
Receipts of the state budget of Ukraine in August 2021 amounted to UAH 142 billion, which is 8.7% higher than the target and 41.7% more than August 2020, according to the data of the Treasury Service.
The total public debt of Ukraine in August 2021 in U.S. dollars decreased by 0.5%, or by $440 million, to $92.53 billion, the Ministry of Finance said on its website.
Industrial production in Ukraine in August 2021 increased by 0.6% compared to August 2020, while in July the growth was 0.2%, in June – 1.1%, in March – 5.4%, and in April – 13%.
Real wages in Ukraine in August 2021 compared to August 2020 grew by 10.9%, compared to July of this year it fell by 2.2%, the State Statistics Service has said.
The volume of construction work performed in Ukraine in July 2021 increased 0.5% compared to the same period in 2020.
Publisher of “Open4Business”, PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin
Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2021 grew by 5.4% compared to the second quarter of 2020, while falling by 2.2% in the first quarter of this year.
Alfa-Bank (Kyiv) has downgraded the forecast for real GDP growth in Ukraine in 2021 to 3.7% instead of 4.3% in the April forecast and the average annual inflation in 2021 to 9.4% instead of the previously predicted 8.5%.
Oxford Economics has downgraded the forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021 to 4% from 4.4% in the July forecast, and the risks of further lockdowns and expectations of tightening fiscal and monetary policy led to a deterioration in the forecast for economic growth in 2022 from 4.2% to 3.5%.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley have downgraded the estimate of Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021 to 3.4% compared to 4.5%, as previously expected, and predict a 4.2% GDP growth in 2022.
The Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) has worsened its 2021 GDP growth expectations to 3.6% from 4.7% in its April forecast and improved its 2022 GDP growth forecast – 4.4% from 2. 7%, Head of the KSE Center of Macroeconomic Modeling Yuriy Sholomytsky has said.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-June 2021 narrowed by 12.7% compared to January-June 2020, to $1.327 billion from $1.519 billion, the State Statistics Service reported.
The surplus of Ukraine’s balance of foreign trade in the first half of 2021 fell by 46.3% compared to the first half of last year, to $0.41 billion.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in annual terms in July 2021 accelerated to 10.2% from 9.5% in June, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The deficit of the state budget for 2022 in the bill for the first reading is provided at the level of 3.5% of GDP in accordance with the Budget Declaration for three years, while there is no possibility to revise this indicator for the second reading, Finance Minister of Ukraine Serhiy Marchenko said in interview.
The total public debt of Ukraine in July 2021 increased by 0.48% in U.S. dollars and amounted to $ 92.96 billion, while it decreased by 0.6% in hryvnias, to UAH 2.499 trillion, according to data on the website of the Ministry of Finance.
Industrial production in Ukraine in July 2021 increased by 0.2% compared to July 2020, while in June the growth was 1.1%, in March – 5.4%, and in April – 13%.
Exports of products of the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine decreased by 8.8 p.p., from 44% in January-July 2020 to 35.2% in January-July 2021, while the share of these products in the total imports into the country over the same period – by 0.9 percentage points, to 11.3%, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reported.
Retail goods turnover in Ukraine in June 2021 year-over-year grew by 13% year-over-year in comparable prices, while in May the figure was 22.7%.
Publisher of “Open4Business”, PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin
Dragon Capital has downgraded the forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021 from 5.3% in the February forecast to 4.6%, while it expects the rate of UAH 27.5/$1 at the end of this year and UAH 28/$1 – next year, head of the company Tomas Fiala has said.
The decline in the gross domestic product of Ukraine (GDP) in January-June 2021 due to lockdown restrictions amounted to 0.6 percentage points (p.p.), Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Yuriy Heletiy has said.
The Ministry of Economy has estimated the growth of Ukraine’s GDP in April-June 2021 at 6%, for January-May – at 0.7%, according to the materials on the ministry’s website.
The National Bank of Ukraine improved its forecast for the current account deficit from 0.8% of GDP to 0.4% of GDP in 2021 and left unchanged the forecast for real GDP growth in 2021 at 3.8%, the regulator said on the website.
The National Bank of Ukraine in the updated Inflation Report published on the website again worsened the estimate of the growth of Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2021 (hereinafter compared to the same period in 2020), to 7.5% from 8.7% in April and from 11.3% in the January report.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-May 2021 increased by 25.5% compared to January-May 2020, to $ 1.078 billion from $ 859 million.
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-June 2021 decreased by 8.36%, to $1.25 billion with an increase in exports of almost 30.3%, to $29.97 billion, imports – by 28.4%, to $31.22 billion, according to data from the State Customs Service.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine at the end of June 2021 decreased to 0.2% from 1.3% at the end of May. In annual terms, inflation remained at 9.5%.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects inflation to rise to 11% in 2021, according to a chart released by the central bank.
Revenues of the state budget of Ukraine in June 2021 amounted to UAH 106.7 billion, which is 15.9% more than the planned figure and 18.7% less than in June 2020, according to data from the State Treasury Service.
The deficit of the general fund of the state budget of Ukraine in June 2021 increased to UAH 18.5 billion, and since the beginning of the year – to UAH 49.8 billion, the Ministry of Finance has said.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) on July 22 will keep the refinancing rate at 7.5% per annum, predict the majority of the bankers surveyed by the Interfax-Ukraine agency.
The total public debt of Ukraine in June 2021 grew by 1.09% in U.S. dollars and amounted to $92.52 billion, while it fell by 0.09% in hryvnias, to UAH 2.514 trillion, according to data on the website of the Ministry of Finance. Industrial production in Ukraine in June 2021 increased by 1.1% compared to June 2020, while in May the growth was 5.4%, and in April – 13%, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The volume of construction work performed in Ukraine in January-June 2021 increased by 0.2% compared to the same period in 2020.
Retail goods turnover in Ukraine in June 2021 year-over-year grew by 13% year-over-year in comparable prices, while in May the figure was 22.7%, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Publisher of “Open4Business”, PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin
The net profit received by agricultural, forestry and fisheries enterprises in 2020 amounted to UAH 81.1 billion (11% down compared to 2019), this value exceeded the profitability indicators of other types of economic activity in Ukraine, the National Scientific Center Institute of Agrarian Economics (IAE) said on its website on Tuesday.
“Last year, 82.6% of enterprises in the industry saw UAH 107.9 billion of net profit, while only 17.4% of enterprises ended the year with losses of UAH 26.8 billion. This is the best indicator among all types of economic activity, where on average there were 71.0% of profit-making and 29.0% of loss-making enterprises,” Director of the IAE Yuriy Lupenko said.
The IAE recalled that the net profit of agricultural enterprises in 2019 amounted to UAH 91.3 billion, and the share of profit-making enterprises – 83.0%, while in the whole economy it was UAH 671.9 billion and 74.0%, respectively.
“So, at the end of 2020, the profits of agricultural enterprises decreased by almost UAH 10 billion, while maintaining a high share of profit-making enterprises,” Lupenko said.
In addition to agriculture, the largest net profit to the Ukrainian economy in 2020 was brought by enterprises of the financial sector and insurance activities (UAH 25.3 billion); repair of vehicles (UAH 22.2 billion); healthcare and social assistance (UAH 18.9 billion); transport, warehousing, postal and courier activities (UAH 18.0 billion); information and telecommunications (UAH 14.3 billion).
According to the IAE, the most significant losses were incurred in the past year by industrial enterprises (UAH 39.8 billion of loss) and the real estate industry (UAH 35.2 billion). The share of profitable enterprises in the agro-industrial complex significantly exceeds this value for other sectors of the economy. In particular, the share of profitable enterprises in the field of healthcare and social assistance amounted to 75.6% of their total number, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles – 74.1%, transport, warehousing, postal and courier activities – 71.3%. At the same time, the smallest number of profit-making enterprises in 2020 was in the field of art, sports, entertainment and recreation (53.4%), as well as temporary accommodation and catering (58.8%).
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS IN THE ECONOMY OF UKRAINE IN 2020 (OPERATIONS, $ MILLION)
The Macroeconomic Review section has been launched on a monthly basis within the framework of the Experts Club. In the first video, the co-founder of the project, PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin, analyzed the main macro indicators.
“The goal of our Macroeconomic Review project is to provide the viewer with the key statistics and information in the most convenient form, to do it succinctly and clearly, replacing cumbersome tables and lengthy reasoning with graphic analysis,” research organizer Maksim Urakin said.
In the block on the population of Ukraine, the latest data of the State Statistics Service on the number of residents of our country were presented, a comparison was made between the statistics of state bodies and the indicators of the so-called “electronic census” of January 2020. In addition, the latest data on unemployment and wages in the regions were studied.
In the economic block, the indicators of GDP, the volume of foreign trade, the main trade partners of Ukraine, the national debt, the indicators and sources of investment and industrial production are analyzed.
All data is presented in the form of graphs and diagrams that complement the visual backdrop.
In the future, the Experts Club will analyze and present both the current statistics of Ukraine and compare the latest data with the previous periods, as well as with the indicators of other countries.
In addition, a series of thematic programs are planned, which will be devoted to the state of various sectors of the Ukrainian economy and their characteristics over the period of 30 years of independence.
The full video can be found on the Experts Club YouTube channel at the link:
You can subscribe to the Experts Club channel here.