Poland’s Deputy Minister of the Interior, Maciej Duszkiewicz, highlighted the contribution of Ukrainians to the functioning of the Polish economy. He made this statement during an appearance on Polsat News.
Polsat News reports that Duszczyk believes that in many cases, the absence of Ukrainians is noticeable. “If it weren’t for Ukrainian citizens, we’d be waiting 10 minutes for the bus instead of five. After all, they fill the gaps in the Polish labor market. That’s why a certain part of the Polish economy depends on refugees from Ukraine. Generally speaking, these are Ukrainians living in Poland, and we need to reiterate this more and more often, because if a situation were to arise where one day all Ukrainians united and refused to go to work, the Polish economy would grind to a halt,” he said.
He also criticized the Law and Justice (PiS) party’s proposal to deport unemployed men of draft age from Ukraine. In this context, the figure of 3,000 people has been mentioned in public discussions. “Three thousand is a small group. Let me remind you that 900,000 people have been mobilized in Ukraine, so this is no help at all. In fact, those who aren’t working in Poland are either caring for their disabled children or are people who were wounded on the front lines and are undergoing rehabilitation in Poland,” he said.
When asked whether refugees will begin returning to Ukraine once the war ends, Dushchyk replied that “this is a process we’ve observed in other countries, and it’s very easy to predict.”
“Sometimes, those who say, ‘I’m staying,’ end up leaving because something happens. And those who say, ‘I’ll leave as soon as the war ends,’ end up staying. Of course, these trends change with each passing month, as the roots they put down in the host society—in this case, Polish society—grow deeper and deeper. “If someone has enrolled their children in school, they’re learning Polish; if a person is working in the labor market, the likelihood that they’ll return to Ukraine without a strong incentive to do so is practically very low,” he noted.
Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 2.1% in the third quarter, 4.2% in the fourth quarter, and 5.2% in the first quarter of next year, according to an updated quarterly forecast published by the National Bank in its April “Inflation Report” on its website.
“The easing of fiscal policy and a significant economic boost resulting from the allocation of part of external financing to the localization of arms production, as well as larger harvests than last year, crops will contribute to a revival of economic activity in the second half of the year,” noted the NBU, which overall revised its economic growth forecast for this year upward to 1.8% from 1.3% in its April “Inflation Report.”
At that time, the National Bank expected GDP to grow by 1.9% in the third quarter of this year, by 1.7% in the fourth quarter, and by 4.7% in the first quarter of next year.
The NBU now expects the consolidated budget deficit (excluding grants in revenue) to rise to 35.2% of GDP by the end of 2026, compared with 24.7% of GDP last year, whereas as recently as April it had forecast a decrease in this figure to 19.2% of GDP.
According to the report, in the second quarter of this year, budget expenditures rose by 32.7% compared to the second quarter of last year—an increase of 0.45 trillion UAH, to 1.81 trillion UAH—while in the first quarter, they remained at last year’s level of 1.25 trillion UAH.
The National Bank emphasized that the fiscal stimulus offsets the negative impact of shelling, which the National Bank estimates at 0.9 percentage points.
According to a preliminary estimate by the State Statistics Service, following a 0.6% decline in the first quarter of this year, GDP increased by 0.6% in the second quarter of 2026, whereas the National Bank had expected growth of 1.7% in its April forecast.
The NBU explained that more substantial economic growth is being hampered by the consequences of Russia’s intensified attacks on logistics infrastructure—particularly the blockage of ports—as well as on the energy sector and business facilities. The decline also deepened significantly in the construction sector (to 7.5% in the second quarter) against the backdrop of a high base of comparison from last year, a shortage of skilled workers, and shifts in the structure of demand amid war and energy shocks: activity shifted away from large residential projects toward private housing and infrastructure restoration.
The National Bank also confirmed its growth forecast for 2027 at 2.8%, but revised its expectations for quarterly growth: while in April it had projected a 2.5% increase in GDP for the second quarter of next year, 2.0% in the third quarter, and 2.5% in the fourth, these figures now stand at 4.3%, 2.4%, and 0.2%, respectively.
The NBU attributes the acceleration of the recovery in the coming years to increased investment in the expansion of production capacity—particularly in the defense industry—further increases in crop yields, gradual stabilization in the energy sector, and sustained consumer demand.
“Accommodative fiscal policy will lead to a positive GDP gap in 2026–2027,” the Inflation Report also notes.
The forecast for the consolidated budget deficit for next year has been raised from 17.7% of GDP to 25.6% of GDP, and for 2028—from 10.9% of GDP to 14.6% of GDP.
According to the report, the downward revision of the GDP growth forecast for 2028 from 3.7% to 3.0% is due to more substantial fiscal consolidation.
As previously reported, according to the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s GDP growth slowed to 1.8% in 2025 from 2.9% in 2024 and 5.5% in 2023, following a 28.8% decline in 2022—the first year of full-scale Russian aggression.
According to Interfax-Ukraine, this article presents key macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine and the global economy as of the end of April 2026. The analysis is based on data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, the Ministry of Finance, the State Customs Service, the International Monetary Fund, Eurostat, BEA, BLS, NBS, ONS, TurkStat, IBGE, and other official institutions. Monthly and quarterly statistical data published after the end of the reporting period were used for April indicators.
Maksim Urakin, Ph.D. in Economics and founder of the information and analytical center Experts Club, presented an overview of the key trends that shaped the state of the Ukrainian and global economies in April and early May 2026.
Ukraine’s Macroeconomic Indicators
As of the end of April, the Ukrainian economy remained macro-financially stable, although inflationary, currency, and foreign trade risks had intensified. Compared to March, consumer inflation accelerated, international reserves declined for the third consecutive month, and the trade deficit continued to widen. At the same time, the government ensured funding for defense, social benefits, and critical budgetary needs, while the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) maintained control over the foreign exchange market.
According to a preliminary estimate by the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s real GDP in the first quarter of 2026 decreased by 0.6% compared to the first quarter of 2025. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the decline was 0.7% compared to the previous quarter.
Nominal GDP amounted to 2,047.2 billion UAH. This negative trend was attributed to electricity shortages, infrastructure damage, delays in external financing, weak investment activity, and adverse weather conditions at the beginning of the year. At the same time, private consumption remained relatively stable, while the manufacturing sector, trade, and certain service sectors showed growth.
In its April forecast, the National Bank revised downward its estimate for Ukraine’s real GDP growth in 2026 to 1.3%. The main reasons were further damage to energy and logistics infrastructure, a larger electricity shortage, high energy prices, and weaker first-quarter results. The NBU expected economic growth to be supported by consumer demand and investments in reconstruction and the defense-industrial complex, but did not forecast a rapid transition to a sustainable recovery.
“The first-quarter results confirmed that the Ukrainian economy remains extremely sensitive to energy, military, and fiscal shocks. Positive domestic demand and business resilience can no longer fully offset the losses from infrastructure destruction, electricity shortages, and weak exports. The 1.3% growth forecast implies actual stagnation on a per-capita basis. “Therefore, the main priority should be not only to maintain financial stability but also to restore production capacity,” Urakin noted.
The inflation situation worsened in April. Consumer inflation accelerated to 8.6% year-over-year, up from 7.9% in March. Prices rose by 1.4% over the month and by 4.9% since the beginning of the year. Core inflation rose to 7.6% year-over-year, inflation for services reached 13.3%, and the increase in fuel prices hit 36.1% year-over-year.
The main source of inflationary pressure was the rise in energy and fuel prices, which increased business costs for logistics, electricity, and production. Additional factors included wage increases, the pass-through of the hryvnia’s earlier depreciation to consumer prices, and rising costs of certain food products and transportation services. Bread, grains, sunflower oil, fish, restaurant services, and household services saw the fastest price increases.
The NBU’s April forecast projected that inflation would accelerate to 9.4% by the end of 2026. A return to a steady decline was expected in 2027, when inflation was projected to slow to 6.5%, and to reach the 5% target in 2028.
On April 30, the National Bank’s Board kept the policy rate at 15% per annum. The regulator explained the decision by the need to maintain the attractiveness of hryvnia-denominated assets, keep inflation expectations under control, and ensure the stability of the foreign exchange market. The NBU’s forecast called for keeping the rate at 15% at least until the second quarter of 2027. In the event of further intensification of price pressures, the regulator did not rule out the use of additional measures, including a rate hike.
“The acceleration of inflation to 8.6% and the sharp rise in fuel prices left the National Bank no room to continue its policy easing cycle. Under current conditions, the 15% rate is not so much a tool for curbing lending as it is a mechanism for safeguarding confidence in the hryvnia. The risk of a premature rate cut now significantly outweighs the potential short-term effect on economic activity,” Urakin emphasized.
The foreign exchange sector remained under control but required significant support from the regulator. As of May 1, 2026, Ukraine’s international reserves stood at $48.215 billion, having declined by 7.3% in April. This marked the third consecutive monthly decline in reserves.
In April, the NBU sold $3.577 billion on the foreign exchange market, while inflows into the government’s foreign currency accounts totaled only $377.9 million. $716.6 million was allocated to service and repay foreign-currency government debt, and Ukraine paid another $255.3 million to the IMF. The losses were partially offset by a positive revaluation of financial instruments amounting to $378 million. Despite the decline, the reserves were sufficient to finance 4.9 months of future imports.
“The decline in reserves from nearly $52 billion to $48.2 billion in a single month is significant, but not yet critical. Far more important is the underlying cause: the private foreign exchange market remains structurally in deficit, and international inflows do not always coincide with the timing of intervention needs and debt payments. Therefore, the stability of the hryvnia will continue to depend on the regularity of external financing and Ukraine’s ability to narrow the trade gap,” Urakin believes.
According to the State Customs Service, Ukraine’s trade turnover in January–April 2026 amounted to $46.1 billion. Imports reached $32.2 billion, while exports totaled $13.9 billion. Thus, the trade deficit for the four-month period was approximately $18.3 billion, with imports exceeding exports by a factor of 2.3.
Ukraine imported the most goods from China—$8.7 billion—followed by Poland—$3.1 billion—and Turkey—$2.2 billion. The main destinations for Ukrainian exports were Poland—$1.5 billion—Turkey—$1.2 billion—and Italy—$857 million.
In the import structure, machinery, equipment, and transportation accounted for $13.3 billion; fuel and energy products—$5.3 billion; and chemical industry products—$4.6 billion. Exports were primarily driven by food products at $8.5 billion, metals and metal products at $1.3 billion, and machinery, equipment, and transportation at $1.2 billion.
“The increase in the trade deficit to $18.3 billion in just four months is one of the main macroeconomic challenges. A significant portion of imports is objectively necessary—these include energy resources, equipment, transportation, and defense products. However, the export base remains too narrow and reliant on raw materials. Without the development of processing, machine building, the defense industry, and service exports, Ukraine will continue to offset the trade deficit with international aid and reserves,” Urakin emphasized.
The budgetary situation remained tense but under control. From January through April, the general fund of the state budget received 1.04 trillion UAH. Total cash expenditures from the general fund amounted to 1.35 trillion UAH, which is 13.8% more than during the same period in 2025. In April alone, General Fund revenues totaled 302.6 billion hryvnias, while expenditures amounted to 433.1 billion hryvnias.
Expenditures on security and defense over the four-month period reached 854.1 billion hryvnias, or 63.3% of all General Fund expenditures. In April, 283.1 billion hryvnias were allocated for these purposes. UAH 555.5 billion was spent on public sector wages and related benefits, UAH 235 billion on social security, UAH 205.4 billion on subsidies and transfers to enterprises, UAH 151.4 billion on goods and services, and UAH 103.2 billion on servicing the national debt.
International grants for January–April totaled 228.2 billion hryvnias, with 55.1 billion hryvnias received in April alone. In total, 1.43 trillion hryvnias flowed into the general and special funds of the state budget over the four-month period, while state budget cash expenditures amounted to 1.7 trillion hryvnias.
“The budget remains functional, but its structure is entirely dictated by the war. When nearly two-thirds of the general fund’s expenditures are directed toward defense and security, the capacity to finance long-term development remains limited. Under these conditions, it is particularly important that international aid cover the budget’s civilian needs, while domestic resources are directed as effectively as possible toward defense, energy, and industrial recovery,” Urakin noted.
The Global Economy
As of the end of April 2026, the global economy remained resilient, but the geopolitical and inflationary environment had deteriorated significantly. The war in the Middle East caused energy prices to rise, heightened inflationary expectations, and forced major central banks to postpone further monetary easing.
In its April World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund projected global economic growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, assuming the conflict would be limited in duration and scope. The IMF warned that a longer war, deepening geopolitical fragmentation, new trade disputes, and high public debt could significantly worsen the outlook.
The U.S. economy maintained positive momentum. According to the BEA’s revised estimate, real GDP in the first quarter of 2026 grew by 2.1% on an annualized basis compared with the previous quarter. Growth was driven by investment, exports, and government and consumer spending.
At the same time, inflation in the U.S. continued to accelerate. In April, the CPI rose by 3.8% year-over-year, following a 3.3% increase in March. Core inflation stood at 2.8%, while energy inflation reached 17.9%. In just one month, energy prices rose by 3.8%, and gasoline prices by 5.4%.
On April 29, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.5–3.75%. The Fed cited elevated inflation, rising global energy prices, and high uncertainty surrounding events in the Middle East.
The eurozone showed significantly weaker economic momentum. According to a preliminary Eurostat estimate released on April 30, eurozone GDP in the first quarter grew by only 0.1% compared to the previous quarter and by 0.8% year-over-year. This indicated that the region’s economy was effectively stagnating.
Annual inflation in the eurozone accelerated to 3.0% in April, up from 2.6% in March. In the European Union, it rose to 3.2%. Services, energy, and food made the largest contributions to the rise in prices.
On April 30, the European Central Bank kept its deposit rate at 2.0%, its main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and its marginal lending rate at 2.40%. The ECB emphasized that risks of rising inflation and a slowdown in economic growth had intensified due to the energy shock.
In the United Kingdom, by contrast, inflation slowed to 2.8% year-over-year in April, down from 3.3% in March. Core CPI fell to 2.5%, and services inflation to 3.2%. At the same time, motor fuel prices rose significantly due to the external energy shock.
On April 30, the Bank of England kept its base rate at 3.75%. Eight members of the Monetary Policy Committee supported this decision, while one voted to raise the rate to 4%.
“April showed that the global cycle of rapid interest rate cuts has effectively been put on hold. The U.S. faced accelerating inflation to 3.8%, the eurozone to 3%, and central banks were once again forced to focus on energy risks. For Ukraine, this means more expensive global capital, more challenging conditions for exports, and additional pressure due to fuel prices,” Urakin noted.
China’s economy grew by 5.0% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026. Nominal GDP reached 33.419 trillion yuan. Industrial production increased by 6.1%, the services sector by 5.2%, and foreign trade in goods by 15%. At the same time, real estate investment fell by 11.2%, indicating that structural problems persist. In April, China’s CPI rose by 1.2% year-over-year and by 0.3% month-over-month. Average inflation for January–April stood at 0.9%. Meanwhile, retail sales in April grew by only 0.2% year-over-year, indicating weakness in domestic consumer demand.
India maintained the highest growth rates among major economies. Following the transition to a new statistical base, the official estimate for real GDP growth in fiscal year 2025/26 was raised to 7.6%, and nominal GDP growth to 8.6%. The main drivers remained the services sector, domestic consumption, construction, and government investment.
Turkey again faced a sharp spike in inflation in April. Consumer prices rose by 4.18% month-over-month and by 32.37% year-over-year. Year-to-date inflation stood at 14.64%. The figure exceeded March’s level of 30.87%, indicating the instability of the disinflation process. At the same time, Turkey’s GDP grew by approximately 3.6% in 2025, confirming the economy’s ability to sustain business activity even amid high price pressures.
Brazil showed more balanced dynamics, although inflation also accelerated. The country’s GDP grew by 2.3% in 2025, reaching 12.7 trillion reais at current prices. In April 2026, the IPCA index rose by 0.67% month-over-month, and annual inflation reached 4.39%, up from 4.14% in March. The largest contributions came from food, medical goods, and services.
“China, India, Turkey, and Brazil demonstrate four distinct development models. China maintains high growth rates thanks to industry and exports, but still faces challenges with domestic demand and real estate. India relies on demographics, services, and investment. Turkey sustains growth at the cost of very high inflation. Brazil is moving more slowly but is trying to strike a balance between economic activity and price stability. “For Ukraine, the main conclusion is that long-term growth is impossible without its own manufacturing, technological, and export base,” Urakin believes.
Conclusions
As of the end of April 2026, Ukraine maintained macrofinancial stability, but key indicators pointed to increasing risks. Real GDP contracted by 0.6% year-over-year in the first quarter; inflation accelerated to 8.6% in April, with core inflation rising to 7.6%, while the policy rate remained at 15%.
International reserves fell to $48.2 billion, a decrease of 7.3% over the month. The trade deficit for January–April reached $18.3 billion. Revenues to the general fund of the state budget totaled 1.04 trillion UAH, while expenditures amounted to 1.35 trillion UAH. UAH 854.1 billion, or 63.3% of all general fund expenditures, was allocated to security and defense.
Positive factors included substantial reserves, a controlled exchange rate policy, international financing, steady consumer demand, business adaptability, and the development of defense production. The main risks were the continuation of the war, the destruction of energy infrastructure, rising fuel prices, labor shortages, weak exports, and the budget’s dependence on foreign aid.
The global economy also entered a more challenging period. The IMF projected global growth of 3.1% in 2026 but warned that downside risks predominated. Inflation in the U.S. accelerated to 3.8%, and in the eurozone to 3.0%, while the central banks of the U.S., the eurozone, and the United Kingdom kept interest rates unchanged. China grew by 5% in the first quarter, India maintained a growth rate of over 7%, while Turkey once again faced inflation exceeding 32%.
“April 2026 showed that Ukraine’s stabilization model remains viable, but its financial buffer is shrinking. The simultaneous acceleration of inflation, depletion of reserves, and widening of the trade deficit signal that external aid cannot be the sole foundation of economic stability. Ukraine needs to transition from financing its immediate survival to creating a new production model. This model should be based on energy self-sufficiency, the defense-industrial complex, agricultural processing, machine building, logistics, digital technologies, and exports of high-value-added products. “Only such a transition can transform macrofinancial stability from a temporary safety net into the foundation for long-term development,” concluded Maksym Urakin.
Germany’s GDP rose by 0.2% in the second quarter compared to the previous three months, according to the Federal Statistical Office, which released preliminary data. The consensus forecast by experts, as cited by Trading Economics, had predicted growth of 0.1%.
Germany’s year-over-year economic growth was 0.9%, while experts had expected growth of 0.6%.
In the first quarter, Germany’s GDP increased by 0.4% compared to the previous three months and by 0.7% on an annual basis. The data for January–March were revised upward; previously, growth of 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively, had been reported.
According to preliminary data, exports in April–June rose compared to the first quarter, while consumer and government spending remained weak, and business investment declined.
Final data on Germany’s second-quarter GDP growth will be released on August 25.
According to Experts.news, Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government has presented a package of 34 reforms designed to restore competitiveness to Europe’s largest economy following several years of weak growth, high energy costs, a slowdown in industrial development, and pressure on the export model.
According to Reuters, key measures cover pensions, taxes, the labor market, industrial policy, energy, infrastructure, housing, trade protection, and reducing bureaucracy. The government expects to pass the main elements of the package in parliament by the end of 2026.
One of the central components is tax relief for households amounting to approximately 10 billion euros per year. For a working family with two children, the benefit could exceed 600 euros thanks to increased tax deductions and a flatter tax rate for middle-income earners. This is planned to be partially financed by raising the top income tax rate from 45% to 47% for the highest earners—those earning 280,000 euros or more per year.
They also aim to make the labor market more flexible. Measures include eliminating the option to report sick by phone, requiring a doctor’s note from the first day of illness, extending the duration of fixed-term contracts to 48 months for new employees by 2030, and introducing more flexible severance pay mechanisms for high-earning employees.
The industrial sector is focused on supporting the automotive industry, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, mechanical engineering, clean technologies, batteries, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence. There are also plans to expand the Deutschlandfonds investment mechanism, accelerate the connection of industrial facilities to power grids, and cut the implementation time for grid projects by roughly half.
For Germany, this is an attempt to address several systemic problems at once. In its May forecast, the European Commission noted that after two years of recession and growth of only 0.2% in 2025, the German economy may grow by only 0.6% in 2026 and 0.9% in 2027. Among the reasons cited for this weakness were high energy costs, weak exports, competition from China, tariff risks, and a delay in the recovery of investment.
The package could give Germany new momentum, but it will not be a quick fix. According to economists’ estimates cited by Reuters, provided the reform is fully and swiftly implemented, the long-term economic growth rate could be raised from approximately 0.4% to 0.7% per year. This is an improvement, but not a return to the old model of strong industrial growth.
The main impact on the German economy could manifest through three channels: a reduction in administrative costs for businesses, an increase in domestic demand driven by tax breaks, and accelerated investment in infrastructure, energy, and technology sectors. But the weak spot remains the same—Germany depends on exports and global industrial supply chains, which are currently under pressure from geopolitics, tariffs, and competition from China.
The consequences will vary for Germany’s major trading partners. In 2025, China once again became Germany’s largest trading partner, with a trade volume of 251.8 billion euros. The United States ranked second with 240.5 billion euros, and the Netherlands ranked third with 209.1 billion euros. At the same time, the U.S. remained the main market for German exports, although shipments of automobiles, trailers, and semi-trailers to the U.S. fell by 17.8%.
For China, Germany’s reforms mean intensified competition in industry, particularly in the electric vehicle, battery, mechanical engineering, and clean tech sectors. Berlin has separately stated its intention to strengthen the EU’s anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures and to consider technology transfer requirements in strategic sectors for non-European investments. This could make German-Chinese economic relations more strained.
For the U.S., the effect is twofold. On the one hand, a stronger Germany means greater demand for American technology, energy, financial services, and industrial equipment. On the other hand, Germany will seek to preserve its own industrial base and reduce its dependence on foreign suppliers in strategic sectors, particularly in semiconductors, batteries, and artificial intelligence infrastructure.
For the Netherlands and other EU countries, the reform package is likely to be positive. If German industry and consumption begin to recover, European logistics hubs, component suppliers, machine-building companies, chemical manufacturers, and countries integrated into German production chains will benefit.
The main risks of the reforms are political and time-related. Some of the measures may face resistance from labor unions, the medical community, and regional authorities, and the economic impact will not be immediate. Reuters notes that businesses and economists generally welcomed the package as necessary but emphasized that everything will depend on the speed and quality of its implementation.
Ultimately, the Merz package can be seen as an attempt to reshape the German growth model: less bureaucracy, more investment, greater labor market flexibility, and stronger protection for strategic industries. But Germany will not be able to return to its former role as Europe’s economic engine through this single reform package alone. To do so, it will have to simultaneously address the challenges of high energy costs, demographic shifts, technological lag, weak domestic demand, and dependence on foreign markets.
On July 4, the United States marks the 250th anniversary of the adoption of the Declaration of Independence — the key document that began the formation of the American state. The central events are taking place in Washington, where the anniversary is combined with the traditional Independence Day and the federal America250/Freedom 250 program.
The National Mall in Washington has become the main venue for the celebration. Under the Freedom 250 program, the day will feature the Great American State Fair, FIFA Fan Zone, aviation demonstrations and flyovers above the center of the capital, an evening concert program, an address by US President Donald Trump, and a major fireworks display. Organizers said the fireworks show is expected to be the largest in history and begin at 10:30 p.m. local time.
The anniversary is not taking place without adjustments. Because of extreme heat in Washington, organizers moved some activities to a later time, expanded cooling points, water stations, and medical support. The National Independence Day Parade, which was supposed to take place on July 4, was canceled because of an excessive heat warning.
Events are also taking place in other US cities. Associated Press notes that the celebration includes fireworks, concerts, and public ceremonies in Washington, New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, and other cities, while the anniversary is taking place against the backdrop of political polarization and debates about the country’s future.
“The 250th anniversary of the United States is not only a historic date, but also an occasion to assess the balance of strength and vulnerability of the world’s largest economy. America retains first place in nominal GDP, military spending, the depth of its financial market, the role of the dollar, and its energy base, but at the same time enters the anniversary year with debt of almost $39.4 trillion. For the global economy, this means that the United States remains the main center of power, but its fiscal sustainability is becoming one of the key risks of the next decade,” said Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club analytical center.
Historically, Independence Day is associated with the decision of the 13 American colonies to sever political ties with Great Britain. The Declaration of Independence was adopted by the Continental Congress on July 4, 1776. Formal international legal recognition of US independence by Great Britain came later — under the Treaty of Paris of 1783, which ended the War of Independence.
Today, the United States remains a federal presidential republic consisting of 50 states and the federal District of Columbia. The country’s population, according to the IMF estimate, is about 343 million people, while nominal GDP in 2026 is estimated at approximately $32.38 trillion, preserving the United States’ status as the world’s largest economy at current prices.
The United States also retains several leading global positions. According to SIPRI, the country remains the world’s largest military spender: in 2025, US spending amounted to $954 billion, or about one-third of global military expenditure. According to the EIA, the United States set a new oil production record in 2025 — 13.6 million barrels per day — remaining the world’s largest oil producer. The US dollar, according to IMF COFER, accounted for 57.13% of allocated global foreign exchange reserves in the first quarter of 2026, remaining the world’s leading reserve currency.
The American financial market also remains the largest center of global capital. According to the World Federation of Exchanges, the two largest US exchanges alone — Nasdaq and NYSE — each had tens of trillions of dollars in domestic market capitalization at the end of 2025, significantly ahead of most global exchanges.
The main weak point of the United States in the anniversary year is the national debt. According to the US Treasury, as of July 2, 2026, total federal debt stood at $39.375 trillion, of which $31.679 trillion was debt held by the public.
The US Congressional Budget Office forecasts that the federal deficit in fiscal year 2026 will amount to $1.9 trillion, or 5.8% of GDP. Debt held by the public, according to the CBO estimate, will reach 101% of GDP by the end of 2026 and rise to 120% of GDP by 2036.
Thus, the United States enters its 250th anniversary as a country with a unique combination of global leadership and internal imbalances. The American economy remains the largest in the world, the dollar is the key currency of the international system, and the capital market is the main source of liquidity. But the scale of the debt and chronic budget deficits are increasingly becoming factors that investors, US allies, and competitors take into account no less than the country’s technological, military, and financial power.
