The Ukrainian economy in 2026 maintains relative macrofinancial stability thanks to international support and the adaptation of businesses to wartime conditions. However, low GDP growth rates, an increasing foreign trade deficit and a shortage of labor resources remain the main obstacles to its recovery.
This is stated in an analytical review of the main economic indicators of Ukraine and the world, presented on November 6, 2026, by Maksym Urakin, Director of Development and Marketing at the Interfax-Ukraine news agency, PhD in Economics and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.
The study mainly covers indicators for January-July 2026 and the second quarter, as well as certain statistical revisions published after the end of the reporting period.
According to the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s real GDP increased by only 0.4% in the second quarter of 2026 compared with the same period of the previous year. At the same time, compared with the first quarter, taking seasonal factors into account, the economy grew by 0.3%.
Thus, after contracting by 0.6% in the first quarter, the Ukrainian economy returned to positive dynamics, but the pace of recovery remains insufficient for the rapid restoration of production potential.
In July, the National Bank of Ukraine raised its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 1.8%, while for 2027-2028 it expected growth to accelerate to approximately 2.8-3% annually.
Foreign trade remains one of the main challenges. According to the State Customs Service, Ukraine’s trade turnover in January-July 2026 amounted to $82.2 billion, including exports of $24.1 billion and imports of $58.1 billion. The merchandise trade deficit reached approximately $34 billion.
China remained the largest supplier of goods to Ukraine, with products worth $16.8 billion imported from the country. Poland ranked next with $5.5 billion, followed by Germany with $3.8 billion.
The main markets for Ukrainian products were Poland, Turkey and Germany. At the same time, food products accounted for approximately 58.5% of Ukraine’s total merchandise exports.
According to Urakin, to reduce the structural trade deficit, Ukraine needs to increase the production of high-value-added goods, develop the processing industry and create new export capacities.
International reserves remain an important factor in macrofinancial stability. As of August 1, 2026, their volume amounted to $51.2 billion, remaining virtually unchanged in July.
At the same time, the National Bank sold approximately $4.76 billion on the foreign exchange market during the month, indicating the economy’s significant need for foreign currency.
The inflation situation also remains difficult. In July, consumer prices increased by 7.7% year-on-year, compared with 7.2% in June. Core inflation stood at 8.1%, while services inflation reached 13.7%.
In the budgetary sphere, defense financing remained the main priority. Over seven months, UAH 1.63 trillion, or 63.2% of expenditures from the general fund of the state budget, was allocated to security and defense.
At the same time, international grant assistance credited to the general fund amounted to UAH 569.6 billion.
Ukraine’s state and state-guaranteed debt reached UAH 9.57 trillion, or approximately $214.2 billion, at the end of July. At the same time, the predominance of concessional international financing helps contain the cost of servicing this debt.
Despite the difficult economic situation, certain sectors demonstrated positive dynamics. In particular, agricultural production in January-July increased by 17.2% compared with the same period in 2025.
The average nominal wage in July amounted to UAH 32,243, which was 21.7% higher than a year earlier.
At the same time, employers continue to face a shortage of qualified workers, primarily in industry, construction and logistics.
The review also analyzes the economic situation in the United States, the European Union, China, India, the United Kingdom, Turkey and Brazil.
According to the International Monetary Fund’s July forecast, the global economy was expected to grow by 3% in 2026 and by 3.4% in 2027.
In the second quarter of 2026, the eurozone economy, according to revised data, increased by 0.6% compared with the previous quarter, while the UK’s GDP grew by 0.4%.
China recorded economic growth of 4.7% in the first half of the year, while India’s GDP increased by 7.8% year-on-year in April-June.
At the same time, annual inflation in Turkey remained at 31.75% in July, significantly exceeding the figures recorded in most other major economies.
According to the founder of Experts Club, global trends confirm the growing importance of technological development, industrial modernization and investment in production.
For Ukraine, the localization of production, development of the defense-industrial complex, agricultural processing, mechanical engineering, energy autonomy and digital technologies remain particularly important.
Urakin believes that Ukraine’s future economic policy should be aimed not only at covering current budgetary needs but also at creating new productive assets capable of ensuring long-term growth.
In his assessment, it is precisely the transition from dependence on external financing to the development of domestic production and exports of high-value-added products that should become the foundation for the sustainable postwar recovery of the Ukrainian economy.
Maksym Urakin’s full analytical review, “Main Economic Indicators of Ukraine and the World as of Late July – Early August,” was published on November 6, 2026, on the website of the Interfax-Ukraine news agency.
Source: Interfax-Ukraine, analytical review dated November 6, 2026.
Thailand has launched a new digital system for issuing Long-Term Resident (LTR) visas, which allow foreign investors, affluent retirees, and highly skilled professionals to reside in the country for up to ten years. Since the program’s launch in September 2022, authorities have approved more than 12,000 applications, estimating the total economic impact at $1.28 billion.
The system integrates the Department of Consular Affairs, the Immigration Bureau, the Department of Employment, and the Thai Revenue Department.
Previously, applicants had to interact with several government agencies, which complicated the process of obtaining visas and work permits.
The new platform, launched in September 2026, enables centralized document processing and information sharing among agencies.
Additionally, foreign investors and professionals can contact the Thailand Investment and Expat Services Center (TIESC), located in the One Bangkok business complex in Bangkok.
According to the BOI, 12,010 foreign nationals have been approved for an LTR over the four years the program has been in effect.
U.S. citizens rank first in terms of the number of approved applications—more than 2,400 people.
Japan ranks second with more than 1,300 approvals, and the United Kingdom ranks third with over 1,000.
A significant portion of Japanese participants are highly qualified specialists working in Thailand’s automotive, electronics, and other technology sectors.
The largest category of LTR recipients is wealthy retirees. According to published statistics, the breakdown of program participants is as follows:
Wealthy Pensioners—4,561 people.
Dependents of primary recipients—3,891.
Highly-Skilled Professionals—1,779.
Professionals working remotely for foreign companies (Work-from-Thailand Professionals) – 1,043.
Wealthy global citizens – 737.
Among visa recipients in the two professional categories, 54% hold executive positions, while another 36% are specialists in various fields.
However, the BOI’s published report does not provide specific data on the number of Ukrainian citizens participating in the program.
According to the Board of Investment’s estimates, over four years the LTR program has contributed approximately 43 billion baht, or $1.28 billion, to Thailand’s economy.
On average, each visa recipient accounts for more than 3.6 million baht, which is equivalent to approximately $107,000 in economic impact.
This calculation includes direct foreign investment, domestic living and consumption expenses, visa fees, and tax revenues from highly skilled professionals.
Thus, the figure of $1.28 billion does not mean that the entire amount entered Thailand exclusively in the form of foreign direct investment.
BOI Secretary-General Narit Therdsterasukdi noted that the program helps attract international specialists and corporate executives needed for the development of high-tech industries.
In particular, Thailand is interested in expanding semiconductor production and developing artificial intelligence, robotics, the aviation industry, biotechnology, and modern electronics.
The Long-Term Resident Program covers four main categories of foreign nationals: high-net-worth investors, affluent retirees, specialists working remotely for foreign companies, and highly skilled professionals.
Each category has specific requirements regarding income, net worth, investments, professional activities, and health insurance.
In January 2025, the Thai government had already relaxed a number of eligibility requirements for the program.
In particular, the mandatory requirement of at least five years of professional experience was eliminated for highly qualified professionals and remote workers.
For remote workers, the minimum revenue requirement for the foreign employer was lowered from $150 million to $50 million.
For high-net-worth investors, the focus shifted from a mandatory annual income of $80,000 to holding assets and making long-term investments in Thailand totaling at least $500,000.
These changes have expanded the pool of potential program participants; however, the new 2026 digital portal does not, in and of itself, waive the existing financial requirements.
The LTR visa grants the right to reside for up to ten years: the permit is initially granted for five years and may then be extended for another five years, provided the established conditions are met.
Among the program’s benefits are simplified immigration reporting procedures, the ability to obtain a digital work permit for eligible categories, and certain tax benefits.
The cost of processing an LTR in Thailand after approval is 50,000 baht. Submitting the application and its preliminary review are free of charge.
However, the LTR is a long-term visa and does not automatically grant permanent residency or Thai citizenship. In addition to the LTR, the country continues to use special visa programs for foreign company executives and technology entrepreneurs, including the BOI Visa and the Smart Visa.
The Thailand Board of Investment views these mechanisms as part of the government’s policy to attract foreign capital and skilled workers and to develop the country’s technology sectors.
The model for reforming the military conscription system proposed by the Cabinet of Ministers in late October of this year requires significant refinement, as it does not align with either economic or security logic, stated Andriy Dligach, founder and chairman of the Advanter Group.
“Reserves are a tool for preserving the human capital necessary for the country’s defense capability. The economy does not compete with the military; it finances it. It is business that ensures production, pays taxes, and generates resources for defense,” he emphasized in a post on his Facebook page.
According to him, Ukrainian businesses are currently on the brink of collapse: average corporate revenue stands at about 85% of the 2025 level, financial reserves are running out, and further draft calls for critically important personnel could bring business operations to a halt.
Dligach is convinced that reforming the system should begin with an audit of human resource utilization in the Defense Forces, as well as an assessment of opportunities for rotation and optimization. As one promising model, he proposes introducing the “2+2” principle (two years of military service and two years of civilian work), while simultaneously developing recruitment efforts and boosting motivation.
Commenting on the fight against corruption in the area of personnel reserving, the expert noted that this problem should be solved not by destroying businesses, but by creating the possibility of reserving at least 15% of key personnel. According to his calculations, this would reduce the demand for corruption, contribute to bringing salaries out of the shadows, and could bring the economy approximately 250 billion UAH.
“The military and the economy are not competitors, but two components of national security. Without a strong economy, there will be no resources for a strong military. Therefore, Ukraine needs a comprehensive human capital management strategy that will ensure defense capability, preserve businesses, and enable the country to withstand a protracted war,” Dligach concluded.
As previously reported, on October 23, the Cabinet of Ministers completed the implementation of changes to the reservation system, decoupling the criticality of enterprises from economic indicators and updating sectoral and regional criteria. The government also lowered the maximum reservation rate for the energy and defense industries from 100% to 95%, with the option to submit a substantiated request to a special Coordination Center if an increase in the quota is necessary, and announced a mechanism for 100-percent reserving, provided that the mobilization obligation regarding the regular voluntary enlistment of employees into military service is fulfilled.
The government has also established a Coordination Center for organizing the reserving of conscripts during periods of mobilization and martial law, in accordance with Resolution No. 1328 of October 23. The Deputy Minister of Economy and Environment and the Deputy Minister of Defense have been appointed co-chairs of the Coordination Center, and the center’s main tasks include reviewing proposals from government agencies regarding the determination of the criticality of enterprises, increasing the volume of reservations, and providing recommendations on the revocation of relevant decisions within one month or within seven business days in cases requiring urgent consideration.
Prime Minister Serhiy Koretskyi explained that the changes are necessary due to the high rate at which deferrals are being granted and the need to prevent abuse, where companies are artificially created for mass reservations without actually participating in the fulfillment of critical tasks.
The Federation of Employers’ Unions (FEU) and the Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (UIE) put forward a number of proposals regarding the resolution. In particular, the FEU proposed establishing a two-month transition period in the event the “criticality” criterion is abolished, extending the validity of current decisions set to expire in November–December, and removing the limited list of industries to ensure equal access for businesses. For its part, the SUP called for retaining the current criticality criterion until its expiration for enterprises that meet the requirements, shortening the document review periods, clarifying the concept of “involvement in production processes” for employees in the defense industry and the energy sector, and ensuring that the liability of managers for violations of military registration is proportionate.
Source: https://www.facebook.com/share/p/19GUkU4VLU/
According to Experts.news, industrial production in Ukraine in September 2026 fell by 9.2% compared to the same month in 2025, following a 6.1% decline in August and a 1.7% decline in July, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (Derzhstat) reported on November 3.
According to the statistics agency, industrial production in September increased by 2.7% compared to August 2026.
Overall, for January–September 2026, industrial output declined by 1.9% compared to the same period last year.
Thus, the year-over-year decline in industrial production has been accelerating for the third consecutive month. While growth of 0.3% was recorded in May and 1.1% in June, the industrial sector returned to negative growth as early as July.
At the same time, industrial production fell by 1% over the first eight months of 2026, and after factoring in September’s results, the decline deepened to 1.9%.
The most negative trend over the first nine months was observed in the metallurgical sector, where output volumes fell by 18.2%. In the production of coke and refined petroleum products, the decline was 18.1%; in the production of electrical equipment, 17.8%; and in the supply of electricity, gas, steam, and conditioned air, 16.7%.
At the same time, certain sectors showed growth. In particular, the production of machinery and equipment increased by 36.5%, computers, electronic, and optical products by 17.1%, food products by 2.8%, and chemical products by 2.7%.
Thus, Ukraine’s industrial sector is showing mixed trends: growth in certain segments of machinery manufacturing and processing is accompanied by a significant decline in production in basic industrial sectors.
As previously reported, industrial production in Ukraine declined by 1.7% in 2025, whereas in 2024, growth of 4.7% was recorded.
The State Statistics Service’s data excludes territories temporarily occupied by the Russian Federation and parts of territories where hostilities are ongoing or have taken place.
According to Experts Club, on October 30, 2026, the international rating agency Fitch Ratings unexpectedly revised its outlook on France’s long-term sovereign credit rating from “stable” to “negative,” while maintaining the rating itself at A+. This decision is linked to the deterioration of public finances in the eurozone’s second-largest economy, a slowdown in economic growth, and rising debt-service costs, Reuters reported, citing a statement from Fitch.
The rating agency noted that since its previous review in August 2026, France’s credit metrics have deteriorated sharply. Economic growth has been weaker than expected, government bond yields have risen significantly, and the prospects for reducing the budget deficit have become less certain.
Fitch is particularly concerned about the trend in public debt, which, according to the agency’s forecast, will rise from 115.7% of GDP in 2025 to approximately 124% of GDP in 2028.
Thus, over the next three years, France’s debt burden could rise by more than 8 percentage points of GDP, despite the government’s stated plans for fiscal consolidation.
According to Fitch’s assessment, the total fiscal adjustment required to stabilize public debt now stands at about 3.5% of GDP, compared with 3% of GDP in the August forecast.
An additional challenge is the rise in public debt servicing costs. The agency expects interest payments on the debt to increase from 2.5% of GDP in 2025 to 3.3% of GDP in 2028.
This means that an increasingly large share of budgetary resources will be directed toward payments to creditors, which will limit the ability to finance other government expenditures without raising taxes or taking on new debt.
Fitch forecasts that France’s general government deficit will reach 5.5% of GDP in 2027. This significantly exceeds the 3% of GDP benchmark set by European fiscal rules.
Meanwhile, the French government expects to reduce the deficit to 5% of GDP in 2027. Fitch’s higher forecast reflects the agency’s doubts about the feasibility of implementing the planned austerity measures and generating additional budget revenues.
The negative economic trends are also confirmed by the latest official statistics.
According to a preliminary estimate by France’s National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE), published on October 30, the country’s GDP contracted by 0.1% in the third quarter of 2026, following zero growth in the second quarter.
At the same time, exports fell by 1.7% compared to the previous quarter, and fixed capital formation declined by 0.6%.
Inflation added to the pressure; according to INSEE data for October, it accelerated to 3.4% on a year-over-year basis.
The situation in the government bond market also reflects growing investor concern.
The yield on 10-year French bonds exceeded 5.14% at the end of October, reaching its highest level since 2002.
Rising yields mean higher costs for the government to raise new funds and a gradual increase in the cost of refinancing existing debt.
Of particular significance is the widening spread between French and German government bond yields, which are traditionally used as a benchmark for assessing debt risks in the eurozone.
In October, this spread reached 178 basis points, compared with approximately 85 points in early September, indicating a notable increase in the risk premium on French government debt.
Fitch also highlights the political constraints on fiscal policy.
The French government lacks a stable parliamentary majority, and the approaching 2027 presidential election complicates efforts to agree on spending cuts and tax changes.
Mass protests over the cost of living, funding for public services, and socioeconomic reforms are creating additional pressure.
According to the agency’s assessment, political fragmentation and a tense social climate make it difficult to implement a consistent, multi-year policy to reduce the budget deficit.
At the same time, Fitch believes that the 2027 budget could be adopted using the mechanisms provided for in the French Constitution, even without a stable majority in the National Assembly.
However, the mere adoption of the budget does not guarantee that the stated financial targets will be met if economic growth remains weak and debt service costs continue to rise.
French Minister of Economy and Finance Roland Lescure stated in an official announcement on October 30 that the government takes note of Fitch’s decision.
According to him, it confirms the need to adopt a responsible budget by the end of the year, aimed at reducing the public finance deficit to 5% of GDP.
The minister emphasized that the government intends to continue fiscal consolidation and ensure predictable conditions for economic activity.
Fitch’s decision marked yet another warning from the major international rating agencies regarding France’s financial situation.
On October 23, Moody’s maintained the country’s credit rating at Aa3 with a negative outlook. Meanwhile, S&P Global Ratings rates France at A+ with a stable outlook.
Thus, two of the three largest international rating agencies now have a negative outlook on French government debt.
Fitch plans to conduct its next review of France’s rating no later than the end of February 2027.
A negative outlook does not imply an automatic downgrade, but it does indicate an increased risk of such a decision in the future if public finances continue to deteriorate.
At the same time, the agency emphasizes that the current A+ rating is supported by the size and diversification of the French economy, high household income levels, the resilience of government institutions, membership in the eurozone, and a relatively stable banking sector.
For the European economy, the deterioration in France’s fiscal outlook is significant primarily due to the size of its public debt and the role of the French financial market in the eurozone.
A further rise in the cost of government borrowing could increase debt-service costs, limit the scope for fiscal stimulus, and intensify pressure on public finances.
In addition, persistently high yields on government bonds could affect lending conditions for French companies and households, as the cost of sovereign borrowing serves as one of the benchmarks for the financial market.
Fitch Ratings is one of the three largest international credit rating agencies, alongside S&P Global Ratings and Moody’s. The agency assesses the creditworthiness of governments, corporations, and financial institutions. An A+ rating falls within the investment-grade category and indicates the borrower’s relatively high ability to meet its financial obligations.
Previously, a video analysis of countries’ external debt was prepared by the Experts Club think tank — https://youtube.com/shorts/fUTLp6l_fTY?si=A2hpjEt0CCViKKnh
Romanian Prime Minister Luca Niculescu stated that a possible unification of Romania and the Republic of Moldova depends on the will of the citizens of both countries; however, Bucharest’s current priority remains strengthening bilateral economic cooperation and supporting Moldova’s accession to the European Union. The head of the Romanian government made these remarks on October 27, 2026, in an interview with TVR Moldova during an official visit to Chisinau.
“This will happen when the citizens of both countries want it,” Niculescu said, responding to a question about the prospects for unification.
According to him, there are close historical, cultural, and economic ties between Romania and Moldova, which is why the issue of a possible unification remains a topic of public debate.
At the same time, the prime minister emphasized that the Romanian government is currently focused on further bringing the two countries closer together and accelerating Moldova’s European integration.
Niculescu made his first foreign visit after taking office as Prime Minister of Romania to Chisinau, where he held talks with his Moldovan counterpart, Vasile Tofan, and President Maia Sandu.
During the talks, the parties paid particular attention to expanding trade and economic cooperation, developing energy infrastructure and transportation links, and attracting Romanian investment.
According to Niculescu, trade between Romania and Moldova reached approximately €4.5 billion in 2025. Romanian investments have created about 12,000 jobs in Moldova.
The development of transport corridors across the Prut River remains one of the priorities of bilateral cooperation. The parties discussed accelerating the construction of a bridge in the Ungheni area, modernizing border infrastructure, and organizing joint control at the Cantemir–Fălciu crossing.
In the energy sector, discussions focused on expanding electrical interconnections between the two countries, including the construction of the Bălți–Suceava power line.
In addition, Moldova is interested in purchasing natural gas to be produced on the Romanian Black Sea shelf as part of the Neptun Deep project once it becomes operational.
During the visit, the prime ministers also reviewed the progress of the Chisinau substation modernization project, which is part of the new 157-km Vulcanesti–Chisinau power transmission line.
The new energy infrastructure is expected to strengthen Moldova’s independence from electricity supplies via the Transnistrian region and expand opportunities for imports from the European market.
The parties paid special attention to the participation of Romanian businesses in the Moldovan economy. Industry, energy, technology, and transportation infrastructure were cited as promising areas.
Moldovan Prime Minister Vasile Tofan also proposed viewing the country as a platform for Romanian companies to participate in Ukraine’s reconstruction projects.
The issue of regional security was another key topic of the talks against the backdrop of Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine.
Tofan stated that the security of Ukraine, Moldova, and Romania is closely intertwined, and that Russian air attacks and airspace violations pose threats to the entire region.
According to the Moldovan prime minister, more than 100 unauthorized overflights have been recorded in the country’s airspace since the start of the full-scale war.
Niculescu confirmed Bucharest’s intention to continue supporting Moldova’s European integration, including facilitating the opening of the remaining negotiation chapters by the end of 2026.
Thus, the Romanian government views economic integration, the development of shared infrastructure, and Moldova’s accession to the EU as priority areas for cooperation. The possible political unification of the two states remains a separate issue, the resolution of which, according to Niculescu’s position, must be based on the will of their citizens.
Romania and the Republic of Moldova share a border approximately 680 km long and have close linguistic and cultural ties. Most of the territory of modern-day Moldova was part of Romania from 1918 to 1940. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Republic of Moldova declared its independence on August 27, 1991. Romania has been a member of the European Union since 2007, while Moldova was granted EU candidate status in June 2022, and official accession negotiations began in June 2024.
