Global grain trade in the 2026/27 agricultural year (July–June) will total 505.8 million metric tons, down 3.5% from last year, according to a forecast by the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations).
According to the organization’s monthly grain report, the new estimate is 3.5 million metric tons lower than the previous forecast made in September. “This reflects a downward revision of wheat and corn export forecasts, driven primarily by shipping difficulties through the Black Sea and insufficient capacity on alternative transport routes,” the report states. “The upward revision to the barley trade forecast only partially offsets the lost corn and wheat trade volumes.”
Forecasts for corn exports from the EU were lowered due to reduced supply from Ukraine resulting from logistical difficulties. At the same time, an increase in export supply from Australia has allowed for an upward revision of the forecast for barley trade, a significant portion of which will be shipped to China.
The improved forecast for wheat exports from Kazakhstan has not fully offset the decline in shipments from Russia and Ukraine.
According to the forecast, international rice trade will decline by 2.2% in calendar year 2026; however, it may increase by 1.7% in 2027, reaching 61.2 million metric tons. “In 2027, a recovery in import demand is projected in most regions; however, the availability of sufficient domestic stocks in East Asian countries suggests that the downward trend in their purchasing volumes may continue for the third consecutive year,” the document states.
According to the FAO forecast, the wheat harvest in 2026 will total 813.9 million metric tons, which is 3.3% less than last year, while the total grain output will be 2 billion 979 million metric tons (2.1% less).
The Japanese government is considering a new package of sanctions against Russia, which could include restrictions on vessels belonging to the so-called “shadow fleet,” as well as further tightening of export controls.
This was reported on October 2 by the Japanese newspaper Yomiuri Shimbun, citing several government officials.
According to the publication, Tokyo is considering joining efforts to further intensify sanctions pressure on Russia amid new restrictions being imposed by European countries.
One of the main targets of the new package could be vessels of the Russian “shadow fleet,” which are used to transport oil and petroleum products in circumvention of Western sanctions.
The Japanese government is also considering expanding the list of goods whose export to Russia is prohibited or restricted, as well as further strengthening export control mechanisms.
The final composition of the new package and the date of its implementation have not yet been officially announced.
As of October 2, the new package has not yet been published in the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s official list of current sanctions. Nor has a corresponding decision been announced in the country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ statements.
The last major package of additional Japanese sanctions related to the war in Ukraine was announced on September 12, 2025.
At that time, Japan imposed asset freezes on 47 Russian organizations and nine individuals. Restrictions were also imposed on five individuals and one organization that Japanese authorities link to the annexation of Crimea, the destabilization of eastern Ukraine, and the Russian occupation of Ukrainian territories.
In addition, three organizations from third countries were subject to the restrictions.
The package included not only asset freezes but also expanded export restrictions. Japan has banned supplies to certain Russian organizations and companies from third countries that, according to the Japanese authorities, are linked to the Russian military-industrial complex or help circumvent the restrictions.
Thus, if the new package is adopted, it will mark the first significant expansion of Japanese sanctions against Russia in over a year.
A focus on the “shadow fleet” will mean a further alignment of Japan’s sanctions regime with the approach taken by the EU, the United Kingdom, and other G7 countries, which in recent years have been actively imposing restrictions on vessels involved in the transport of Russian energy resources.
At the same time, Japan maintains a unique position regarding Russian energy resources. The country continues to import LNG from the “Sakhalin-2” project, viewing these supplies as a crucial element of its own energy security.
The official list of Japan’s current sanctions has been published by the country’s Ministry of Finance. The new restrictions will take effect after the government adopts a corresponding decision and publishes the documents required by Japanese law.
In the first quarter following the EU’s introduction of quotas on metal product shipments, Ukrainian metal exporters used 100% of their quarterly guaranteed quota for duty-free shipments to the EU of cold-rolled flat products made of unalloyed and alloyed steel, hollow sections, and other seamless pipes, according to a statement on the website of the “Ukrmetallurgprom” association.
According to the statement, as of September 30, 2026, the quotas in the following categories under the global (final) quotas in which Ukraine participates have been exhausted: metal-coated sheets (MFN subgroup—“Most-Favored-Nation treatment”), metal-coated sheets (FTA subgroup—“countries with a free trade agreement with the EU”), unalloyed and other alloyed steel bars and light sections (MFN subgroup—“most-favored-nation treatment”), stainless steel bars, billets, and small-section products (MFN subgroup – “most-favored-nation treatment”) and stainless steel bars, billets, and small-section products (FTA subgroup – “countries with a free trade agreement with the EU”).
Among competing countries, the guaranteed quota as of September 30 has been exhausted for the following categories: rebar – Turkey; wire rod of non-alloy and alloy steel – Turkey; hollow sections – Turkey and Macedonia; seamless stainless steel pipes—India; cold-rolled bars and rods of unalloyed and alloyed steel—Switzerland; and unalloyed wire—Turkey.
As of September 29, 2026, the competitive quota has been exhausted for the following categories: hot-rolled flat products of unalloyed and alloyed steel, rebar, wire rod of unalloyed and alloyed steel, hollow sections, seamless stainless steel pipes, other seamless pipes, and non-alloy wire.
As previously reported, once the guaranteed and competitive quotas are exhausted, further shipments to the EU are subject to a 50% tariff. “Ukrmetallurgprom” criticized the EU’s decision to restrict shipments of Ukrainian steel products, which had been supplied to Europe duty-free for the first three years following Russia’s full-scale aggression. The association believes that Ukraine currently poses no threat to European producers, as the war initially caused the country’s steel production to plummet from 40 million metric tons to 7.5 million metric tons, and currently, nearly all steel plants are shut down due to shelling.
EU, EXPORTS, METALLURGY, QUOTA, UKRAINE
China is ready to remain a reliable partner of Ukraine and to expand mutually beneficial cooperation between the two countries, said Ma Shenkun, Ambassador of the People’s Republic of China to Ukraine.
“The economies of China and Ukraine are highly complementary, so cooperation between the two countries has broad prospects. China is ready to be a reliable partner of Ukraine. We are committed to further expanding mutually beneficial cooperation, bringing greater benefits to the peoples of both countries, and jointly opening up new prospects for the development of China-Ukraine relations,” the ambassador said during a reception in Kyiv marking the 77th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China.
The event was attended by Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Yevhen Perebyinis, as well as representatives of the diplomatic corps, Ukrainian government and civil society organizations, the business community, and the Chinese community.
Ma Shengkun noted that 2026 will mark the 15th anniversary of the establishment of the China-Ukraine strategic partnership, and in 2027, the two countries will celebrate the 35th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations.
According to him, China has remained Ukraine’s largest trading partner for many years and is one of the main sources of Ukrainian imports.
The ambassador highlighted the development of bilateral trade in agricultural products. Specifically, in 2025, Ukraine and China signed protocols opening opportunities for the export of Ukrainian peas and wild-caught aquatic biological resources, and in 2026, they signed a protocol regarding the export of Ukrainian wheat flour to China.
“This creates a solid foundation for the further expansion of Ukrainian agricultural exports,” noted Ma Shenkun.
Speaking about the state of the Chinese economy, the diplomat reported that China’s GDP in the first half of 2026 reached 69.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.7% compared to the same period last year.
According to him, China intends to continue developing high-tech manufacturing, new energy, artificial intelligence, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while simultaneously opening its economy further to the outside world.
Ma Shengkun also addressed Beijing’s position on the war in Ukraine. He stated that China advocates for a political settlement and the continuation of diplomatic efforts.
“China will continue to stand firmly on the side of peace and support all efforts that promote peace. In turn, China will continue to play a constructive role in facilitating the swiftest possible ceasefire and cessation of hostilities and, ultimately, the achievement of a peace agreement,” the ambassador stated.
He noted that nearly two years of work in Ukraine have convinced him that the Ukrainian economy has significant potential for further development and cooperation with China.
A significant portion of the ambassador’s speech was devoted to the achievements of the PRC’s 77-year development. Ma Shengkun noted that China has become the world’s second-largest economy, a global leader in the volume of merchandise trade, and one of the main trading partners of more than 160 countries and regions.
The diplomat also stated Beijing’s intention to continue international cooperation within the framework of the “Belt and Road” initiative, which, he said, has been joined by over 150 countries and more than 30 international organizations, with the number of infrastructure and industrial projects currently underway exceeding 4,000.
According to a study by the Experts Club think tank, China ranked first among Ukraine’s largest trading partners in the first half of 2026. Trade between the countries totaled approximately $14.68 billion, including imports of Chinese goods to Ukraine of about $13.9 billion and Ukrainian exports to China of about $778 million. China accounted for about 21.9% of Ukraine’s total trade with its 50 largest trading partners and 29.4% of imports from this group of countries. At the same time, Ukraine’s trade deficit with China amounted to approximately $13.12 billion. Experts Club study on Ukraine’s largest trading partners in the first half of 2026
According to data from the State Customs Service, this trend continued in January–August 2026: China remained the largest supplier of goods to Ukraine, with imports totaling over $19.6 billion.
The People’s Republic of China recognized Ukraine’s independence on December 27, 1991, and diplomatic relations between the two countries were established on January 4, 1992. The Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in Kyiv began operations in 1992. That same year, the Embassy of Ukraine in Beijing began operations. In 2011, Ukraine and China established a strategic partnership.
The European Business Association (EBA) calls for maintaining a zero quota on ferrous scrap exports, which would effectively ban scrap metal exports in 2027, Alternatively, should the quota be abolished, member companies propose imposing an export duty of EUR 180 per metric ton for all export destinations, taking into account Ukraine’s international obligations.
“Domestic processing of scrap metal in Ukraine allows for the creation of added value, the preservation of jobs and tax revenues, and the provision of raw materials for the production of steel and finished metal products. The use of scrap also helps reduce energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in steel production, which takes on additional significance in light of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM),” the publication states.
According to the publication, EBA member companies have appealed to the Cabinet of Ministers and the Ministry of Economy.
Recently, following the shutdown of most Ukrainian steel mills due to massive Russian shelling, scrap metal collection companies have called on the government to review restrictions on scrap exports. Previously, scrap collectors had advocated for lifting the de facto ban on scrap exports from Ukraine and introducing quotas for shipments of this raw material to EU countries in the amount of 200,000 metric tons per year.
As reported, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine established a zero quota on scrap metal exports effective January 1, 2026, to ensure Ukrainian enterprises have access to this raw material.
The EBA noted that, according to 2025 figures, exports of ferrous scrap from Ukraine increased by 53% compared to 2024—reaching 448,680 metric tons. The business community believes that easing the current restrictions could lead to a rise in exports and a shortage of raw materials for Ukrainian manufacturers.
According to data from “UAVtormet,” 4.3 million metric tons of steel were produced in the first 8 months of 2026 (compared to 7.41 million metric tons in 2025), 925,400 metric tons of scrap were delivered to steel mills (1.56 million metric tons), and scrap procurement totaled 971,700 metric tons (2.11 million metric tons). According to preliminary forecasts, 6.4–6.5 million metric tons of steel will be produced in 2026, 1.2–1.25 million metric tons of scrap will be delivered to steel mills, and scrap procurement will total 1.22–1.25 million metric tons.
In January–August of this year, Ukrainian companies reduced exports of ferrous scrap by more than 20 times compared to the same period last year—to 13,86 thousand metric tons from 283,06 thousand metric tons, and in monetary terms—to $3.930 million from $85.4 million. At the same time, 9.31 thousand metric tons were exported in January due to the completion of last year’s contracts, compared to 68.52 thousand metric tons in December 2025. There were no exports in February through May of this year; 4.08 thousand metric tons were exported in June, 315 metric tons in July, and 157 metric tons in August.
On April 29, 2026, the Cabinet of Ministers, by its Resolution No. 563, amended Annex 1 to its Resolution No. 1795 of December 31, 2025, permitting the export of scrap metal on the basis of licenses issued by the Ministry of Economy to to foreign economic activity entities that were the winners of electronic auctions held in December 2025 for the sale of such goods in accordance with the Procedure for the Alienation and Lease of Property of Business Entities in which more than 50% of the shares in the authorized capital are owned by the state or by another legal entity whose sole participant is the state.
According to Experts.news, China’s foreign trade in goods reached 45.47 trillion yuan in 2025, up 3.8% from the previous year, said Ma Shengkun, China’s ambassador to Ukraine.
“In 2025, the total volume of China’s imports and exports of goods reached 45.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.8% year-over-year.
Imports totaled a record 18.48 trillion yuan,” the diplomat wrote in his column on the Interfax-Ukraine website.
According to him, China has remained the world’s second-largest import market for the 17th consecutive year and is the main trading partner for more than 160 countries and regions.
The ambassador also noted that in 2025, China’s imports from the least developed countries increased by 9%, while imports from Asia rose by 3.9%, from Latin America by 4.9%, and from Africa by 6%.
Ma Shengkun highlighted the growth of the high-tech segment of Chinese exports. According to the data he cited, exports of high-tech products reached 5.25 trillion yuan in 2025, an increase of 13.2%.
In particular, total exports of electric vehicles, photovoltaic products, and lithium batteries—referred to in China as the “new trio” of export goods—rose by 27.1%.
As previously reported, China remains Ukraine’s largest trading partner. According to a study by the Experts Club information and analytical center, Ukraine’s trade turnover with China reached $14.68 billion in the first half of 2026, including $13.9 billion in imports of Chinese goods and $778.4 million in exports of Ukrainian goods to China. China accounted for 21.9% of Ukraine’s total trade with its 50 largest trading partners.
According to the latest data from the State Customs Service of Ukraine, in January–August 2026, China retained its top position among suppliers of goods to Ukraine, with imports exceeding $19.6 billion. Ukraine’s total imports during this period amounted to nearly $66.3 billion, while exports totaled over $26.6 billion.
A joint study by Experts Club and Active Group published on September 18 also noted that China remains Ukraine’s largest trading partner; however, Ukrainian exports to the Chinese market lag significantly behind imports from China.
