Yevgen Osipov, CEO of the agricultural holding “Kernel,” anticipates—in a stress scenario—a 12-million-metric-ton decline in grain production in Ukraine next year due to a possible reduction in planted acreage by farmers, if no solution is found within the next six months to resume exports, according to a correspondent for the Interfax-Ukraine news agency.
“It is difficult to make such forecasts today. We hope that some solutions will be found in the next six months. If no practical solution is found, then, objectively speaking, the area under cultivation will be reduced. In such a stress scenario, we estimated this would result in a shortfall of 12 million metric tons of grain next year,” he said at the “Forbes Ukraine” Economic Resilience Forum in Kyiv on Wednesday.
According to Osipov, with seaports closed, Ukraine will be able to export only about 20 million metric tons of the 50 million metric tons of agricultural products needed—that is, 40% of the required volume—so companies are having to pivot to other business models.
“Based on our own experience with the most recent export corridors, about 50% of the operations were inefficient; we need to find new ways. Because right now, for businesses, it’s a matter of building a new business model. In other words, the old business model doesn’t work there anymore. That’s why, for our part, we’re focusing on processing and exporting processed products,” Osipov noted.
According to him, under its new business model, “Kernel” is focusing on exporting smaller volumes of products with higher added value, while retaining the ability to purchase oilseeds from Ukrainian farmers, pay them, and export processed products.
Osipov also added that, due to security and logistical constraints as well as external factors, it is currently not realistic to expect that the Danube ports will be able to handle the same volume of shipments that Ukraine had in 2022–2023.
As previously reported, in its September report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its estimate for this year’s wheat production in Ukraine by 0.6 million metric tons compared to the August forecast—to 26 million metric tons—and its estimate for other grains (excluding wheat and corn) by 0.5 million metric tons, to 7.29 million metric tons, and maintained its corn production forecast at 31.8 million metric tons. Thus, the USDA estimates Ukraine’s total grain production this year at 65.09 million metric tons.
Electricity exports from Ukraine on September 14–20 decreased by 17.3% compared to the previous week, to 109.3 thousand MWh, while imports increased by 12.2%—to 18.6 thousand MWh.
“Overall, electricity sales were nearly six times higher than purchases,” the DIXI Group analytical center reported on Wednesday, citing data from Energy Map.
As the center noted, weather conditions had the greatest impact on electricity trade during the reporting period. A cloudy start to the week, combined with a gradual seasonal decline in solar power generation, reduced the daytime power surplus, and the largest decline in exports occurred during daylight hours. At the same time, comfortable temperatures, mostly without precipitation, did not create peak loads on the power grid. Industrial consumption remained low due to Russian attacks.
According to Energy Map, Hungary accounted for the largest share of last week’s exports—53.8 thousand MWh, or 49.2%. Moldova accounted for 36,2 thousand MWh (33.1%), Romania for 19,0 thousand MWh (17.4%), and Poland for 0,3 thousand MWh (0.3%).
Compared to the previous week, exports declined across all destinations: to Poland by 72% (due to insignificant supply volumes), to Romania by 28%, to Moldova by 22%, and to Hungary by 8%. Exports to Slovakia remained at zero.
Hungary also remained the main source of imports, accounting for 8,900 MWh (47.8%). Poland accounted for 5,900 MWh (31.4%), Romania for 3,800 MWh (20.6%), and Moldova for 0.04 thousand MWh (0.2%).
As previously reported, in August 2026, electricity imports to Ukraine increased by 5% compared to July—to 184,000 MWh—while exports jumped by 63.8% to 380,900 MWh, marking the highest monthly export volume since September 2025. As a result, Ukraine maintained its status as a net exporter for the second consecutive month: sales exceeded purchases by nearly double.
In the 2025–26 marketing year, rapeseed processing in Ukraine increased 2.7-fold, and rapeseed oil exports increased 2.5-fold compared to the previous marketing year. In total, 42% of the rapeseed harvest was processed domestically (last year this figure was 15%), which is an all-time record since the crop began to be grown in Ukraine. Foreign exchange earnings from rapeseed oil exports more than tripled, reaching $588 million.
This was reported by Dmytro Kysilevsky, Deputy Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Economic Development, citing data from the “Ukroliyaprom” association. He also noted that the share of domestic processing of the soybean harvest in the 2025–26 marketing year rose from 39% to 54.2% (also a historic record for processing). Despite a decline in the soybean harvest from 6.6 million metric tons to 4.8 million metric tons, foreign exchange earnings from exports of soybean oil and meal rose by 12.3%, to $1.02 billion.
Compared to the previous marketing year, the harvested areas for these crops changed insignificantly: rapeseed +15.7%, soybeans -3.9%. In total, the area planted with these crops increased from 3.25 million hectares to 3.37 million hectares.
According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, additional revenue to the state budget from export duties on soybeans and rapeseed amounted to 2.174 billion UAH for the marketing year, i.e., for the period from September 2025 to August 2026.
“These figures show that export duties on soybeans and rapeseed have been effective: the share of processing has increased—Ukrainian plants have seen higher utilization rates; the area under cultivation has expanded—farmers consider these crops profitable to grow; and the budget has received additional revenue from duties as well as from plant operations. Step by step, Ukraine is moving away from low-value commodity exports, increasing processing, foreign exchange earnings, and tax revenues, and developing new plants that offer decent wages for Ukrainians. “When Ukraine exports processed products rather than soybeans and rapeseed, the growth in foreign exchange revenue per metric ton of exports ranges from 30% to 50%,” noted Dmytro Kysilevsky.
On July 16, 2025, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine approved the introduction of a 10% export duty on soybeans and rapeseed. The duties took effect on September 4, 2025.
As of September 21, Ukraine had exported 4.662 million metric tons of grains and legumes since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year (MY, July 2026 – June 2027), had exported 4.662 million metric tons of grains and legumes as of September 21, which is 22% less than the 5.979 million metric tons recorded as of September 24, 2025, according to the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food.
At the same time, corn exports rose by 103.4%—to 1.841 million metric tons, compared to 905,000 metric tons as of September 24, 2025.
Wheat exports since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year totaled 2.337 million metric tons, a 43.9% decrease compared to 4.168 million metric tons as of September 24, 2025. Barley exports totaled 420,000 metric tons, down 46.9% from last year’s figure of 791,000 metric tons.
Wheat flour exports since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year totaled 6,800 metric tons, down 48.9% from 13,300 metric tons as of September 24, 2025. Exports of other types of flour remained at 0.6 thousand metric tons. Overall, flour exports fell by 46.8%—to 7.4 thousand metric tons, compared to 13.9 thousand metric tons as of September 24, 2025.
The situation on the Ukrainian wheat market remains largely unchanged due to complicated and expensive logistics, while the corn market is suffering from slow export growth and anticipates a seasonal increase in supply, consulting firm Barva Invest reported on its Telegram channel.
The price of Ukrainian 11.5% wheat on DAP-Danube terms stood at $172–178 per metric ton on September 21.
“The situation on the Ukrainian wheat market remains largely unchanged—exports remain costly and complicated due to Russia’s ongoing attacks on port infrastructure, and the logistics situation is unlikely to improve in the near future,” Barva Invest noted.
According to the company, the most active export routes for Ukrainian wheat remain the Romanian port of Constanta and the Vadul Siret border crossing. At the same time, exports through Ukrainian Danube ports remain extremely difficult due to constant attacks by Russia.
On the Ukrainian corn market, the DAP-Danube price on September 21 stood at $170 per metric ton.
“The Ukrainian corn market continues to suffer from a lack of its usual export pace, while at the same time anticipating a seasonal increase in supply. Logistics are expensive and complicated, which does not facilitate the conclusion of new deals,” Barva Invest noted.
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) is urging the Verkhovna Rada and the government to repeal the 10% export duty on soybeans and rapeseed, the association reported.
According to the association’s estimates, in the 2025/26 marketing year, Ukraine exported 2.7 million metric tons of soybeans, compared to 3.8 million metric tons in the previous season, and 1.82 million metric tons of rapeseed, compared to 3.2 million metric tons. The UGA considers the introduction of the export duty to be one of the key reasons for the decline in exports of these crops.
The association notes that the additional 10% export duty diverts a portion of revenue from the production chain and increases the financial burden on agricultural producers, especially small and medium-sized ones, for whom selling their harvest at a competitive export price is crucial for covering loan payments, land rent, fuel, fertilizers, plant protection products, and labor costs.
The UZA also notes that the government has streamlined the procedure for confirming farmers’ eligibility for duty exemptions on their own-grown produce through the State Agrarian Register. However, in the association’s view, this mechanism does not address the systemic problem, as a significant portion of Ukrainian soybeans and rapeseed passes through the commercial distribution chain.
According to the UZA, export restrictions create imbalances in the domestic market and limit producers’ ability to choose the most economically viable sales channel. The association considers it important to maintain the ability to export products to markets where there is demand and where producers can obtain competitive prices.
