According to Experts.news, Ukraine could account for about 31.3% of global sunflower oil exports in the 2026/27 marketing year, according to calculations by Open4Business based on the September forecast from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service report Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade, published on September 11, 2026, Ukrainian sunflower oil exports are projected to reach 5 million metric tons, while global exports are expected to total 15.968 million metric tons.
Thus, nearly one in every three metric tons of sunflower oil supplied to the global market may be of Ukrainian origin.
In the previous 2025/26 marketing year, Ukraine exported approximately 4.036 million metric tons of sunflower oil out of total global exports of about 13.51 million metric tons. At that time, Ukraine’s share was about 29.9%. In the new season, this figure may increase by approximately 1.4 percentage points.
The USDA expects Ukraine to remain the world’s second-largest exporter of sunflower oil after Russia. Russian shipments are projected at 5.1 million metric tons, accounting for approximately 31.9% of global exports.
Together, Ukraine and Russia could supply about 10.1 million metric tons to foreign markets, or more than 63% of total global sunflower oil exports.
Argentina will remain the third-largest exporter, with projected shipments of about 2.05 million metric tons, accounting for approximately 12.8% of global trade. Turkey is expected to export about 1.1 million metric tons, and the European Union—about 850,000 metric tons.
The growth in Ukrainian exports will be driven by a recovery in the sunflower harvest and increased capacity utilization at processing plants. The USDA forecasts sunflower seed production in Ukraine for the 2026/27 marketing year at 13 million metric tons, compared to 10.7 million metric tons in the previous season.
Sunflower oil production, according to the agency’s estimates, will increase to 5.418 million metric tons from 4.515 million metric tons in the 2025/26 marketing year, or by approximately 20%.
At the same time, domestic consumption of sunflower oil in Ukraine is expected to reach about 470,000 metric tons, so the bulk of the additional production will be directed toward exports.
Overall, the USDA forecasts global sunflower oil exports to grow by approximately 18%—from 13.51 million metric tons in the previous season to 15.968 million metric tons in the 2026/27 marketing year.
The increase in supply will largely be driven by a recovery in production in the Black Sea region, primarily in Ukraine and Russia. At the same time, imports are expected to rise from the largest consumers of vegetable oils, notably India and China.
Ukraine traditionally remains one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of sunflower oil. A distinctive feature of the Ukrainian industry is the high proportion of domestic seed processing, which means that exports consist primarily of higher-value-added products—oil and meal—rather than raw materials.
Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade, September 11, 2026: official USDA report.
In January–August of this year, Ukrainian companies reduced their consumption of rolled metal by 9.64% compared to the same period last year, down to 2.546 million metric tons.
According to a press release from the “Ukrmetallurgprom” association, 1.151 million metric tons were imported during this period, accounting for 37% of the domestic rolled steel consumption market.
According to “Ukrmetallurgprom,” in January–August 2026, Ukrainian steel mills produced 3.591 million metric tons of rolled steel (84.4% of the level recorded during the same period in 2025), of which, according to the State Customs Service of Ukraine, approximately 2.196 million metric tons—or 61.2%—were exported. In
January–August 2025, the share of exports was 58.3% (2.481 million metric tons out of a total rolled steel production of 4.256 million metric tons).
“In January–August 2026, the domestic market capacity was 2.546 million metric tons of rolled metal products, of which 1.151 million metric tons, or 45.21%, consisted of imports. In January–August 2025, the domestic market capacity was 2,815,500 metric tons, of which 1,042,500 metric tons, or 37%, were imported. “Thus, in January–August 2026, the domestic market capacity decreased by 9.64% compared to January–August of last year, while the share of imports increased by 8.21%,” the press release states.
The share of semi-finished products in export shipments in January–August 2026 was 41.44%, which is significantly higher than the figure for the same period last year (32.37%). The share of flat-rolled products in exports matches that of January–August of last year (44.22% and 44.38%, respectively), while the share of long products is noticeably lower (14.34% versus 23.26%, respectively).
The structure of imports in January–August of this year is characterized by a noticeable dominance of flat-rolled products over long products (67.98% and 25.97%, respectively); however, in January–August 2025, the dominance of flat-rolled products over long products was significantly greater (70.24% and 20.96%).
According to the State Customs Service, the main export markets for Ukrainian rolled metal in January–August 2026 were the European Union (82.3%), the rest of Europe (9.1%), and the CIS (6.7%).
Among steel importers for the first 8 months of 2026, other European countries ranked first (49.0%), followed by Asian countries (26.1%), and the EU-27 (16.8%).
As previously reported, Ukraine’s rolled metal market grew by 21.73% in 2025 compared to 2024, reaching 4 million 1.6 thousand metric tons. Imports totaled 1 million 603.6 thousand metric tons, accounting for 40.07% of domestic rolled metal consumption.
Ukraine’s rolled steel market shrank by 6.26% in 2024 compared to the previous year—to 3,288,400 metric tons—while in 2023 it increased 2.19-fold compared to 2022—to 3,505,600 metric tons.
Ukrainian enterprises operating in the ferrous scrap market have called for the abolition of the current zero quota on raw material exports and the introduction of controlled supplies to EU countries, stating that the situation in the industry has sharply deteriorated.
Representatives of companies and the industry association reported this at the press conference “Ukraine’s Scrap Market: Between the Needs of the Economy and Regulatory Uncertainty,” held on September 16 at the Interfax-Ukraine agency.
Volodymyr Bubley, president of the Ukrainian Association of Secondary Metals “UAVtormet,” said that the zero quota on scrap exports to the EU, introduced from the beginning of 2026, is negatively affecting raw material collection and the activities of industry enterprises. According to him, if the current restrictions remain in place, scrap collection volumes may decline significantly by the end of the year.
Serhiy Vovk, CEO of UkrMetInvest LLC, said that the company has already laid off 180 employees, while only four of its 18 production sites continue to operate. More than 14,000 tonnes of scrap that the company is unable to sell have accumulated at its warehouses.
Mykola Klymovych, development director of Mirten LLC, noted that over the eight months of 2026, the volume of scrap collection, according to industry representatives’ estimates, fell by approximately 400,000 tonnes. Market participants estimate losses in tax revenues at more than UAH 1 billion.
Vladyslav Kleshchynskyi, CEO of the UKRMET Group, said that domestic demand from metallurgical enterprises had fallen sharply and that regulated scrap exports to the EU needed to be permitted. Industry representatives had previously proposed setting an export quota at around 200,000 tonnes per year.
According to UAVtormet, around 4.3 million tonnes of steel were produced in Ukraine in January-August 2026, compared with 7.409 million tonnes for the whole of 2025. Scrap metal supplies to metallurgical enterprises over the eight months amounted to 925,400 tonnes, while total collection reached 971,700 tonnes.
The association forecasts that by the end of 2026, steel production will amount to around 6.4-6.5 million tonnes, scrap supplies to metallurgical enterprises to 1.2-1.25 million tonnes, and total collection to approximately 1.22-1.25 million tonnes.
Exports of Ukrainian ferrous scrap in January-August 2026 fell by 95.1% compared with the same period last year, to 13,856 tonnes from 283,055 tonnes. In monetary terms, supplies decreased by 95.4% to $3.93 million.
In 2025, by contrast, scrap exports rose by 45.3% to 448,685 tonnes, while foreign-currency revenue increased by 44.5% to $131.927 million. It was precisely the sharp increase in raw material exports that became one of the reasons for the Ministry of Economy’s introduction of a licensing regime and a zero export quota for 2026.
In April, the government partially adjusted the restrictions, allowing exports under licenses for individual foreign economic activity entities that had won state electronic auctions. However, representatives of the scrap collection industry consider this mechanism insufficient to restore the market to full operation.
Participants in the press conference said that if the current regulatory model remains in place, they will seek a review of the decision and do not rule out protest actions.
In January–August of this year, Ukraine’s ferroalloy exports decreased by 67.5% in volume terms compared with the same period last year—to 23,964 thousand metric tons from 73,774 thousand metric tons.
According to statistics released by the State Customs Service (SCS), 4,675 thousand metric tons of ferroalloys were exported in August, 4,077 thousand metric tons in July, 6,432 thousand metric tons in June, 4,851 thousand metric tons in May, in April—2,755 thousand metric tons, in March—337 metric tons, in February—72 metric tons, and in January—765 metric tons.
In monetary terms, ferroalloy exports for January–August fell by 65.2% to $28,778 million.
In addition, over the first eight months of the year, Ukraine imported 18,337 thousand metric tons of these products—a 32.8% decrease compared to January–August 2025. In monetary terms, imports fell by 33.2% to $34.613 million.
As previously reported, the Pokrovsk Mining and Processing Plant (PGZK, formerly the Ordzhonikidze Mining and Processing Plant) and the Marganetsk Mining and Processing Plant (MGZK, both located in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), which are part of the “Privat” Group, ceased the extraction and processing of raw manganese ore in late October–early November 2023, while the NZF and ZZF plants halted the smelting of ferroalloys. In the summer of 2024, the ferroalloy plants resumed production at a minimal level.
Since January 19, 2026, due to problems with electricity supply and high electricity prices, NZF has been idle, while ZZF has been operating at a minimal level.
In 2025, ferroalloy plants increased their exports of ferroalloys by 21.4% in volume terms compared to 2024—to 93,841 thousand metric tons—while revenue rose by 19% to $105.441 million. The main export destinations were Poland (28.69% of shipments in monetary terms), Turkey (21.62%), and Algeria (21.48%).
In 2025, Ukraine imported 38,434 thousand metric tons of this product—a decrease of 53.3% compared to 2024. In monetary terms, imports fell by 47.5% to $73.839 million. Imports came primarily from Norway (16.11%), Kazakhstan (15.89%), and France (12.56%).
Prior to the nationalization of the financial institution, PrivatBank managed the business operations of the ZZF, NZF, Stakhanov Steel Plant (located at NKT), and the Pokrovsk and Marganets Mining and Processing Plants. The Nikopol Ferroalloy Plant is controlled by the EastOne Group, formed in the fall of 2007 as a result of the restructuring of the Interpipe Group, as well as by the Privat Group.
In January–August of this year, Ukraine’s exports of processed pig iron decreased by 16.4% in volume terms compared to the same period last year—down to 1,033,034 metric tons from 1,235,648 metric tons.
According to statistics released by the State Customs Service (SCS), 34 metric tons of pig iron were exported in August, 51,539 metric tons in July, 183,780 metric tons in June, in May—159,378 thousand metric tons; in April—181,670 thousand metric tons; in March—168,493 thousand metric tons; in February—194,345 thousand metric tons; and in January—93,795 thousand metric tons.
From January through August 2026, pig iron exports in monetary terms fell by 15.3% to $413,041 million.
Over the first eight months of this year, the country imported 15 metric tons of pig iron worth $35,000, compared to 38 metric tons worth $76,000 during the same period last year.
As previously reported, in 2025 Ukraine increased its pig iron exports by volume by 53.5% compared to 2024—to 1,980,620 thousand metric tons—and by value by 51.9%, to $759,882 million. Exports were primarily shipped to the United States (68.25% of shipments by value), Italy (20.26%), and Turkey (3.63%).
Last year, the country imported 39 thousand metric tons of pig iron worth $78 thousand from Germany (51.95%) and Brazil (48.05%), while in January–December 2024, 38 metric tons worth $90 thousand were imported.
Starting March 12, 2025, in accordance with a decision by President Donald Trump, a 25% tariff began to be levied on imports of Ukrainian steel products, excluding pig iron.
Sunflower meal exports from Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year may increase to 3.3 million metric tons, up from 2.861 million metric tons in the previous season, according to a USDA forecast.
This represents an increase of about 15.3%, according to data from the September report “Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade.”
At the same time, sunflower meal production in Ukraine is expected to reach 5.204 million metric tons, which is approximately 20% higher than the 2025/26 marketing year’s figure of 4.337 million metric tons.
The USDA estimates domestic consumption of sunflower meal at 1.875 million metric tons, compared to 1.675 million metric tons the previous season.
Ukraine will retain its second-place position among the world’s largest sunflower meal exporters, behind Russia. Russian exports are forecast at 2.8 million metric tons, while Ukraine’s figure is higher at 3.3 million metric tons; thus, for this product, Ukraine actually outpaces Russia.
Overall, global sunflower meal exports in the new season may increase from 8.809 million metric tons to 10.404 million metric tons, or by approximately 18%.
The growth in meal production is directly linked to the recovery of sunflower processing and increased oil output in the Black Sea region.
Source: USDA FAS, Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade, September 2026.
