In its April report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered its forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine in the 2025–2026 marketing year (MY) to 12.5 million tons from 13.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.0 million tons (7.4%). Meanwhile, the estimate for Ukraine’s wheat harvest remains unchanged at 24.0 million tons, while the forecast for ending stocks has been raised to 3.93 million tons, an increase of 0.8 million tons.
Globally, the USDA raised its forecast for wheat production in the 2025–2026 MY to 844.15 million tons, while the estimate for global exports was lowered to 221.88 million tons, and ending stocks could rise to 283.12 million tons. Among major exporters, the agency raised its harvest estimate for the EU to 145.11 million tons and for Russia to 90.3 million tons, while increasing its forecast for Russian exports to 44.5 million tons.
In March 2026, Ukraine exported 12,430 metric tons of dairy products worth $35.38 million, which is 25.1% more in volume than in February and 44% more in revenue, according to the Association of Milk Producers (AMP), citing data from the State Statistics Service.
As noted by the industry association, exports by volume increased by only 1% compared to March 2025, while revenue decreased by 7%.
In total, in the first quarter of 2026, the country exported 30,560 tons of dairy products (-2%) worth $81.46 million (-9%) to foreign markets. In March, the key products were condensed milk and cream (25% of exports), cheese (17%), butter (15%), and casein (15%).
ABM analysts attribute the increase in shipments in March to the war in the Middle East and the logistical collapse in Iran, which had been a major competitor to Ukraine in the markets of Iraq, the Persian Gulf countries, and Central Asia. Due to disruptions in Iranian exports, buyers began returning to Ukrainian suppliers, whose product prices are currently nearly identical.
In March 2026, compared to February, Ukraine increased exports of condensed milk to 3,600 tons (+20%), whey to 1,710 tons (+24%), cheese to 1,320 tons (+14%), and ice cream to 1,370 tons (+96%). However, shipments of non-condensed milk fell to 2,010 tons (-10%). Revenue from condensed milk rose to $8.92 million, and from cheese to $6.15 million.
“Increased supply of raw materials and weak domestic demand are forcing processors to expand more actively into foreign markets. Despite quotas, the EU’s share of export revenue reached 36%. In particular, Germany has become a strategic market for casein and fresh cheeses under private label, while Poland, in addition to importing into Ukraine, is actively purchasing our butter and dry whey,” the association noted.
Against the backdrop of rising exports, imports are intensifying pressure on the domestic market. In January–March, Ukraine imported 16,950 tons of dairy products (+10%) worth $83.18 million, with cheese accounting for 63%. Experts warned that the surplus of European cheeses being redirected from China poses a threat to domestic cheese producers and could lead to a drop in milk purchase prices in Ukraine.
The foreign trade balance in the first quarter of 2026 remained negative at -$1.72 million.
To stabilize the situation, the industry association is insisting on the introduction of state protective measures against uncontrolled imports from the EU.
On April 9, 2026, PJSC “Ukrhydroenergo” signed its first agreement since the launch of the “Electricity Import-Export” section on the Ukrainian Energy Exchange (UEEX), the company announced on its Telegram channel on Friday.
“It was Ukrhydroenergo that initiated the auction and sold electricity across the Ukraine-Moldova border,” the company noted.
As explained by the company, this agreement marks an important step in the development of exchange-based electricity trading and the expansion of the organized market’s capabilities. The agreement also has practical significance for the entire power system: a separate exchange section for import-export operations makes such transactions more predictable and transparent, allows for better system balancing amid fluctuating demand and generation, and opens up additional opportunities for attracting external resources or selling surplus electricity. As a result, the system gains greater flexibility, and the market gains clear rules of the game for all participants.
“For Ukrhydroenergo, this agreement is the result of the work of an entire team of specialists, as well as a strategic step toward developing a transparent, competitive electricity market integrated with European practices,” noted Bogdan Sukhetsky, Acting CEO of Ukrhydroenergo.
According to him, by initiating such mechanisms, the company is opening up new opportunities for efficient exports, increasing the liquidity of exchange trading, and strengthening energy cooperation with neighboring countries.
As reported, Ukraine reduced electricity imports by 25% in March compared to the previous month—to 942,100 MWh—and resumed electricity exports, which had last taken place on November 10, 2025. Export volumes in March totaled 30,200 MWh.
Prices for dairy products in Ukraine rose in March 2026 due to increased logistics costs, higher energy prices, and a surge in exports, according to the Association of Milk Producers (AMP).
The industry association noted that pasteurized milk with a fat content of up to 2.6% in film packaging rose in price by 0.99 UAH (+2.1%) over the month—to 48.86 UAH/kg, while the price in plastic bottles rose by 0.93 UAH (+1.4%) to 66.86 UAH/kg. The cheapest milk in the category remains the “Adalis” brand (41.99 UAH/kg), while the most expensive are ‘Yagotynske’ (57.77 UAH/kg) and “Galychyna” (72.73 UAH/kg).
Kefir with 2.5% fat content in film packaging costs an average of 58.52 UAH/kg, which is 1.62 UAH less than a month ago. Meanwhile, the price of the product in plastic bottles remained stable at 78.10 UAH/kg. Sour cream with 15% fat content in cups rose in price by 0.72 UAH to 190.59 UAH/kg, while drinking yogurt increased in price by 3.5% and costs an average of 124.35 UAH/kg. Sour milk cheese with 9% fat content rose in price by 1% to 292.31 UAH/kg.
Domestically produced butter (72.5–73%) rose in price by 2% to 585.51 UAH/kg. Analysts noted that imported President butter costs 960 UAH/kg, which is 64% more expensive than Ukrainian products.
“Ukrainian” cheese (50%) rose in price to 608.80 UAH/kg, and “Dutch” cheese (45%) to 610.05 UAH/kg (+3.3%). The most significant increase was recorded for “Maasdam” cheese, which rose in price by 6.6% to 768.37 UAH/kg. Meanwhile, imported equivalents of ‘Maasdam’ and “Gouda” from the Kroon brand cost 31% less than domestic products.
ABM analysts also attribute the rise in costs to the situation in the Persian Gulf, which caused a spike in prices for petroleum products and freight.
“Domestic sales of locally produced dairy products should be boosted by the government’s support for Draft Law No. 6068-d on countering unfair trade practices by retail chains and the implementation of protective measures against the significantly increasing imports of dairy products. We need to combat the gray import of dairy products into Ukraine. Food for humanitarian aid packages and other government purposes should be purchased exclusively from domestic producers,” the ABM emphasized.
According to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UAC), Ukraine exported 5.5 million tons of agricultural products in March 2026, a 10.8% increase from the previous month, the organization reported on Facebook.
According to the report, following four months of stable shipments, an increase in exports was observed across all product categories in March. Specifically, grain exports rose by 7% compared to February, totaling 3.7 million tons. In the structure of grain exports, corn accounted for 75%, wheat for 24%, and barley for 1%.
Exports of oilseeds increased by 12% to 338,800 tons (soybeans – 58%, rapeseed – 40%, sunflower seeds – 1%). Supplies of vegetable oils rose by 16% to 506,800 tons, with sunflower oil accounting for 84%, soybean oil for 9%, and rapeseed oil for 7%. Exports of oilseed meal after oil extraction rose by 15% to 542,600 tons (sunflower meal – 73%, soybean meal – 27%). Other agricultural products demonstrated the highest growth rate (+32%), with sales totaling 474,800 tons.
“In the coming months, we expect at least stable shipments, if not an increase in grain exports. There are three months left until the start of the new marketing year, and there are still sufficient volumes intended for export, which threatens the formation of carryover stocks,” the association reported.
“An increase in exports is observed across all product categories following four months of steady shipments,” the UCAB noted, adding that the increase in shipments is critically important for freeing up storage capacity ahead of the new season.
In the soybean segment of Ukraine’s oil and fat industry, positive trends continue in the 2025/26 marketing year in terms of both physical volumes and foreign exchange revenue, according to the Ukroliyaprom association.
According to the association’s data, from September to February of the current season, foreign exchange revenue from soybean oil exports rose by 19.3% compared to the same period of the previous marketing year.
Revenue from soybean meal exports for the same period increased by 21%, while physical volumes of meal shipments rose by 38%.
The association attributes the growth in the soybean segment to increased domestic processing and the industry’s overall shift toward higher-value-added products.
“Ukroliyaprom” notes that it was precisely the increase in soybean and rapeseed processing that helped the industry mitigate the effects of the decline in sunflower yields and maintain stable operations at processing facilities.
According to the association, oil and fat products account for 34.4%, or $7.737 billion, of Ukraine’s agricultural and food exports totaling $22.515 billion, confirming their systemic role in the country’s foreign exchange earnings.
