In its June report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its forecast for Ukraine’s wheat production in the 2026/27 marketing year (July–June) to 23.5 million tons from 23 million tons, as projected a month earlier, and also increased its export estimate from 13 million tons to 14 million tons.
In the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, USDA analysts attributed the forecast revision for Ukraine to favorable weather conditions in the spring.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the upward revision of the forecast for Ukraine was one of the factors behind the increase in the forecast for global wheat production in the 2026/27 marketing year from 819.1 million tons to 820.1 million tons. Global wheat trade was also revised upward—from 211.7 million tons to 212.0 million tons.
In addition, the USDA raised its forecast for Ukraine’s barley harvest in the 2026/27 marketing year by 300,000 tons—from 5.5 million tons to 5.8 million tons, as expected a month earlier.
The export estimate was also increased by the same 300,000 tons, which, together with other grains excluding wheat and corn, currently stands at 2.49 million tons.
As for the corn harvest forecast, analysts at the U.S. Department of Agriculture left it unchanged at 30 million tons this year, compared to 30.9 million tons last year. Corn exports from Ukraine are expected to reach 23 million tons, the same as a month earlier.
As reported, in its May report, the USDA published its first forecast for Ukraine for the 2026/27 marketing year, estimating the wheat harvest at 23 million tons, exports at 13 million tons, and corn production and exports at 30 million tons and 23 million tons, respectively.
As reported, Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture forecasts the 2026 grain harvest at around 60.4 million tons, which is only 1%, or 0.64 million tons, less than last year. According to preliminary estimates by the Ministry of Economy, the harvest of key crops could amount to about 22.4 million tons of wheat, about 4.7 million tons of barley, and approximately 31.6 million tons of corn.
According to data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the wheat harvest in Ukraine in 2025 increased by 3.6% to 23.34 million tons, the corn harvest by 14.6% to 30.9 million tons, while barley production decreased by 2.4% to 5.2 million tons.
In 2025, Ukraine reduced the physical volume of organic berry exports by 12.5% compared to 2024—to 15,400 tons—but increased its value by 8.5%—to EUR39.8 million.
“Over the past two years, organic raspberries, strawberries, currants, and blueberries have remained the main export items,” said Iryna Fedorchenko, a leading export specialist at the organic production certification body “Organic Standard,” during a presentation of a study on the export of organic berries and nuts in 2024–2025 at the forum “Development of Exports in Ukraine’s Berry and Nut Sector” on June 10 in Kyiv.
She noted that Ukraine accounts for a significant share of organic berry exports to the EU. The largest buyers of Ukrainian products were Poland, the Czech Republic, Italy, Germany, and Austria.
“We are second only to Serbia in raspberries. Ukraine accounts for about 20% of organic raspberry imports, and 30% for blackberries. Blueberries are our trump card, because almost all organic blueberries exported to the EU come from Ukraine,” said Fedorchenko.
Currently, there are 55 companies in Ukraine exporting organic berries to 18 countries worldwide.
According to the study, wild berries continued to form the bulk of last year’s shipments—11,800 tons worth EUR27.1 million—while 3,600 tons of cultivated berries were exported for EUR12.7 million.
The cultivated berry segment saw an increase in export value despite a decline in volume. For example, organic raspberry exports fell by 18.7% to 2,230 tons, but their value rose by 31% to EUR8 million.
Organic strawberry shipments decreased by 13% to 1,290 tons, while revenue rose from EUR3.4 million to EUR4.2 million. Exports of organic blueberries, on the other hand, increased more than 11-fold—from 8.1 tons to 91.8 tons—and their value rose from EUR0.1 million to EUR0.5 million.
According to Fedorchenko, the vast majority of Ukrainian organic berries are exported in frozen form. “It is very difficult for us to export fresh berries, especially when they are organic and untreated,” she emphasized.
Separately, the representative of “Organic Standard” noted changes in the structure of organic berry farming. The area under organic raspberries in 2025 increased to 842 hectares from 768 hectares a year earlier, and under blueberries—to 353 hectares from 337 hectares. In contrast, the area under strawberries decreased to 210 hectares from 309 hectares, and under cherries—to 54 hectares from 146 hectares. The total area of organic berry plantations decreased from 1,700 hectares to 1,600 hectares.
The study was conducted by the certification body “Organic Standard” in collaboration with the Office for Entrepreneurship and Export Development and the national project “Dія.Бізнес” with support from Switzerland as part of the Global Quality and Standards Program (GQSP Ukraine), implemented by UNIDO.
EXPORTS, organic berries, Organic Standard, RASPBERRIES, UKRAINE
Agricultural holding Kernel is expanding its presence in the European consumer market: in the Netherlands, just a year and a half after launching its own sunflower oil brand, Bestolie&Kernel, sales have already reached 5.5 million liters, the company’s press service reported on Monday.
“The European market is very competitive and ‘closed’ to new brands. It is dominated by large international FMCG companies and supermarket chains’ private labels. Getting on the shelf is difficult, and staying there is even harder,” the release quotes Serhiy Neroshchyn, director of the marketing and sales department for packaged products at Kernel, as saying.
The company noted that it previously produced oil for the Dutch food distributor Fangoo&Zon Impex under a private label, whereas the launch of its own Bestolie&Kernel brand in 2024 allowed the company to build a complete value chain—from the Ukrainian field to the European consumer.
“Kernel” is responsible for production and quality control at all stages—from seed to finished oil—as confirmed by ISO 9001 and ISO 22000 certifications, while Fangoo&Zon Impex handles distribution in the local market.
Since its launch, the company has also expanded its product range, adding new packaging formats and frying oil for the HoReCa segment.
“Kernel” estimates its share of global sunflower oil exports at 10%. Kernel sells refined sunflower oil in Ukraine under its own brands, “Stozhar” and “Shchedry Dar,” and exports it under its own Kernel brands to 12 European countries, as well as to Jordan, Lebanon, Bangladesh, Guinea, under the Le Blanc and Premi brands in Egypt, the Middle East, and South Asia, as well as under its partners’ private labels.
Fangoo&Zon Impex is a Dutch company specializing in the import and distribution of food products and FMCG goods in the Benelux countries.
Kernel Agricultural Holding is the world’s largest producer and exporter of sunflower oil, Ukraine’s largest grain exporter, an operator of an extensive network of logistics assets, and a leading producer of grain and oilseeds in Ukraine. It is one of the largest producers and sellers of bottled oil in Ukraine. It is engaged in the cultivation and sale of agricultural products.
According to results for the first nine months of fiscal year 2026 (July 2025 – March 2026), Kernel saw its net profit decline by 5% to $208 million, while its revenue increased by 0.4% to $3.092 billion, and EBITDA by 1% to $403 million.
Since its launch in 2023, the Ukrainian maritime corridor has transported 200 million tons of cargo, including 118 million tons of Ukrainian grain, according to a statement by Deputy Prime Minister for Recovery and Minister of Community and Territorial Development Oleksii Kuleba.
“Behind every figure lies the hard work of Ukrainian ports, sailors, logistics specialists, railway workers, farmers, and everyone who keeps our economy running every day despite the war,” Kuleba wrote on Telegram on Thursday.
According to him, since the beginning of 2026, nearly 35 million tons of cargo have been transported through seaports, and Ukrainian products have reached 56 countries around the world.
It is noted that in April of this year alone, more than 500 drone attacks on logistics infrastructure were recorded.
“The ports were under fire practically every other day,” the post states.
Kuleba specified that since the start of the full-scale invasion, 935 port infrastructure facilities have been damaged or partially destroyed, 191 civilian vessels have been affected, and 255 people have been injured.
“Despite this, the Ukrainian maritime corridor is operational. It remains one of the key tools for supporting the national economy, ensuring exports, and Ukraine’s important contribution to global food security,” the Deputy Prime Minister emphasized.
As reported, Ukraine’s ports handled 35.8% more cargo in April 2026 than in April 2025—8.2 million tons.
According to the Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority (USPA), in total, from January to April 2026, Ukraine’s seaports handled 29.5 million tons of cargo, which is more than during the same period in 2025.
At that time, it was noted that grain accounted for the bulk of the cargo flow—16 million tons, which is 7% more than last year.
Ukrainian cement exports to the EU are nearly blocked with the implementation of the second phase of the CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism); our country must take a proactive stance in supporting its own producers, emphasized Lyudmila Kripka, Executive Director of the “Ukrcement” Association.
“The conditions that the Ukrainian cement industry faced at the start of the second phase of the CBAM, that is, at the beginning of this year, can be more realistically described not as a ‘barrier’ but as an ‘embargo.’ We were assigned default CO2 emission values for cement from Ukraine at 1,518 kg/t of clinker, which is nearly double the actual figures, even using the wet production method,” Kripka said at the “Trade Wars: The Art of Defense” conference in Kyiv on Wednesday.
She also noted that there are currently no verifiers in the EU for the purposes of the CBAM, but even if there were, the arrival of European verifiers in Ukraine (a mandatory requirement in the first year) is unlikely due to the high level of security risks.
“Under such conditions, exports are impossible in principle! And we see the consequences: cement production has decreased, budget revenues have shrunk, and foreign exchange earnings have fallen, leading to an even greater imbalance in the country’s trade balance,” Kripka noted.
The “Ukrcement” Association, both on its own and together with partners whose products fall under the CBAM mechanism, appealed throughout 2025 to the government, the EC, and all stakeholders regarding the application of the declaratory principle for the duration of the war and reconstruction (this is possible under Part 7 of Article 30 of the CBAM Regulation on force majeure, which has devastating consequences for the economy and industrial infrastructure). However, according to Kripka, EC officials reassured them that the impact of the CBAM’s implementation on the Ukrainian economy would be minimal. First-quarter results showed that the impact is significant, effectively blocking exports.
“Currently, the EC acknowledges that the default value is incorrect; they also see a problem with the certification of verifiers, which concerns not only Ukraine but also EU countries. They promise to correct these issues within a month,” Kripka said.
According to her, these encouraging statements have prompted companies to resume exports, but the risk of catastrophic sanctions remains for companies and dealers that made these shipments.
At the same time, the cement industry is one of the leaders in domestic industry in terms of systematic preparation for the full launch of the CBAM.
“We have made significant progress in the use of alternative fuels, have concrete examples of launching our own ‘green’ power generation, conduct continuous emissions monitoring (CEM), and have verified these emissions using verifiers available in the country,” Kripka said.
Therefore, she emphasized, in response to the question “what is holding back the development of exports to EU countries,” one can point to “uneven competitive conditions.”
“We see that the world is shifting toward a model of economic pragmatism and the protection of domestic markets. Under these conditions, Ukraine has very limited time to adapt its economy to the new reality. “We must take a proactive stance in supporting our own producers,” Kripka explained.
She cited neighboring Poland as an example of healthy “aggressive pragmatism.” In 2024, Ukrainian cement exports to Poland totaled 854,000 tons. Poland produced 17.7 million tons of cement that year. In fact, exports from Ukraine accounted for 3.7% of Poland’s production. Meanwhile, front-page headlines in the press spoke of the “disappearance of Polish cement plants,” and an inter-factional parliamentary group called “Support for the Development of Poland’s Cement Industry” was established in the Polish Sejm.
Kripka emphasized that in order not to be left behind in industrial competitiveness, our country must take a proactive stance in supporting its own producers.