Since the beginning of the year, exports of wood and wood products from Ukraine amounted to 1.42 million tons worth $671.8 million. Compared to the same period in 2024, when 1.34 million tons were exported for $593.9 million, the volume of exports increased by 81,700 tons, or 6%. At the same time, in monetary terms, there was an increase of $77.9 million, or 13%.
Pine products account for the largest share, 68.6%, indicating high demand for this type of wood on foreign markets. Spruce timber ranks second with 19%, followed by oak with 6.6% of the total volume.
At the same time, since the beginning of the year, customs authorities have detected violations amounting to over UAH 31.4 million.
Flour and cereal producers are concerned about a reduction in flour exports to the European Union after the expiry of autonomous trade measures on June 6, as 75% of their exports currently go to the EU, Rodion Rybchinsky, director of the Ukrainian Flour Millers Association, said in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine.
“Starting from June 6, we have the opportunity to supply a total of 583,300 tons of wheat and wheat flour to the EU market by the end of the year. But since the quota is combined, I am not sure that we will be able to fill it. It is much easier for wheat exporters to find buyers in the EU and fill their quota,” he said.
Rybchynsky added that the industry association continues to use all possible communication channels to convey to European officials the need to allocate a separate quota for Ukrainian flour for export to the EU or to remove it altogether.
The head of the Ukrainian Flour Millers Association stated that before the war, there were 678 enterprises specializing in grain processing in Ukraine, but in 2022, 192 enterprises were destroyed and remained in the occupied territories. As of the end of 2024, 88 enterprises have been restored.
At the same time, according to his information, exports of flour and cereals have fallen by 50% since the start of the war. Among the reasons, the expert cited a reduction in production and changes in logistics: whereas exports used to be mainly by sea, since the start of the war they have been forced to switch to road and rail transport, which are more expensive than sea transport.
Due to problems with transporting products across the Black Sea, container shipping has not yet been fully restored. As a result, the geography of grain processing product sales has changed significantly since the beginning of the war: 75% of products are exported to the European market, of which 55% go to EU countries, 15% to the Middle East, 4% to Africa, and 2% to Asia, according to the head of the Ukrainian Flour Millers Association.
As reported, First Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotsky said in comments to journalists that one of the government’s strategies in negotiations with the European Commission will be to request that the established quotas be divided by commodity codes.
The European Commission has approved quotas for Ukrainian agricultural products, which will be in effect from June 6 until the end of 2025 as part of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) agreement. According to a document published on the EU website, by the end of 2025, Ukraine will be able to supply the EU market under the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area in a 7/12 month mode (7/12) with wheat, flour, and meslin – 583,330 tons , corn – 379,167 thousand tons, barley – 204,167 thousand tons, poultry meat – 52,511 thousand tons, beef – 7 thousand tons, eggs – 3,500 tons, milk and cream – 5,833 tons, dry milk – 2,917 tons, butter – 1,750 tons.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has increased its forecast for Ukraine’s wheat exports by 0.5 million tons to 16.0 million tons, leaving corn exports unchanged at 22.0 million tons and wheat and corn production at 23.4 million tons and 26.8 million tons, respectively.
According to the April forecast, the global wheat market in the 2024-2025 marketing year is expected to decrease slightly in production, consumption, and trade volume compared to the previous month’s forecast, while ending stocks are expected to increase.
World wheat production is expected to decline by 0.3 million tons to 796.9 million tons due to lower production estimates in Saudi Arabia and the EU (-0.3 million tons to 121.0 million tons).
World wheat consumption is projected 1.4 million tons lower to 805.2 million tons, mainly due to lower food, seed, and industrial use in India and China.
World trade in MY 2024/2025 is projected 1.3 million tons lower to 206.8 million tons, mainly due to lower export forecasts for Russia (-1.0 million tons to 44.0 million tons), Australia (-0.5 million tons to 25.5 million tons), and the EU (-0.5 million tons to 26.5 million tons), only partially offset by higher exports for Canada (+0.5 million tons to 26.5 million tons) and Ukraine (+0.5 million tons to 16.0 million tons).
Exports in MY 2024/2025 are expected to be 7% lower than in the previous year.
Projected world ending stocks for MY 2024/2025 are increased by 0.6 million tons to 260.7 million tons, as increases in stocks in India, the Russian Federation, the US and the EU are partially offset by lower stocks in China. World stocks for MY 2024/2025 are now 3% below the previous year and the lowest since MY 2015/2016.
The updated forecasts for the global corn market in MY 2024/2025 assume higher production, consumption, trade volumes and a corresponding reduction in ending stocks.
The forecast for world corn production increased by 0.9 million tons to 1,215.1 million tons. Increases in the EU (+1.3 million tons to 59.3 million tons due to increased harvests in Poland, Croatia, France and Germany, partially offset by decreases in Romania and Bulgaria), Tanzania and Honduras were partially offset by decreases in Moldova, Cambodia and Kenya.
The world export forecast rises by 2.3 million tons to 188.7 million tons. Major changes in world trade for MY 2024/2025 include an increase in projected corn exports for the United States (+2.5 million tons to 64.8 million tons) and a decrease for Pakistan.
Corn ending stocks declined by 1.3 million tons to 287.7 million tons, reflecting lower stocks in the U.S. and higher stocks in South Korea, Pakistan.