Global cereal production in 2023 could reach a record 2.819 billion tonnes, up 1.1 percent from 2022, according to a June FAO (United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization) survey.
Last month’s forecast was raised by 5.9 million tons. “The adjustment is almost entirely due to an improvement in the global wheat crop outlook. At the same time, despite the fact that the forecast of its harvest was raised by 0.9%, to 783.3 million tons, it is still 18.4 million tons below the record level of 2022,” – said in the review.
In particular, harvest estimates in the EU, Canada, Kazakhstan and Turkey were raised. “Expected production gains in these countries more than offset a significant reduction in the production forecast in Australia, where unusually dry weather conditions have led to lower crop views,” the review said.
The forage grain harvest forecast was “slightly lowered” to 1.512 billion tons. But that’s still 2.9% higher than 2022.
“The decrease is due to a downward revision in corn harvest forecasts in East Africa. That said, the improvement in the global barley production forecast is largely due to an adjustment in official estimates for Turkey, where the crop is expected to be higher than originally projected. However, it did not fully compensate for the drop in corn production,” the survey said.
The rice production forecast is “slightly adjusted upward” to 523.7 million tons due to improved crop views in Bangladesh and other countries along and south of the equator. Last year’s revised figures put the crop at 517.6 million tons.
Agrarians from 12 regions began harvesting early grain and leguminous crops and threshed 1.24 million tons of grain with a yield of 33.2 centners / ha from 308.2 thousand hectares (3%), the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food.
According to the report, the pace of grain harvesting is leading agrarians Nikolaev region, which harvested grain from 118 thousand hectares (19%), by volume Odessa agrarians threshed 468.8 thousand tons. In total in Ukraine barley was harvested on 235 thousand hectares, which is 16% of UAH of which 805.8 thsd. tons were threshed at the yield of 34.3 cwt/ha.
Wheat was harvested from 51.4 thousand hectares (1%). With a yield of 33.5 c/ha it was threshed 172 thousand tons.
Peas were harvested from 21.7 ha (15%). With a yield of 21.1 centners/hectare it was threshed 45.8 thousand tons.
Agrarians from five regions have also begun to harvest winter rape: 86.2 thousand tons of seeds have been harvested. winter rape: 86,2 thousand tons of seeds at the yield of 18,1 centners/hectare on the area of 47,7 thousand hectares (3%).
As reported, winter wheat crops this season amounted to 4166 Hectares (-834 thsd. ha versus the previous one), winter barley – 536 thsd. ha (-255 thsd. ha), rape – 45 thsd. ha (-255 thsd. ha). thousand hectares), rape – 1374 thousand hectares (+110 thousand hectares).
The port of Gdansk (Poland) in anticipation of an increase in cargo flow with Ukrainian grain harvest-2023 will increase the number of tents and silos to increase transshipment capacity by 0.5 million tons per month, which will allow to transship 5.8 million tons of grain per year, said president of the port Lukasz Malinowski.
“Last year the port terminals transshipped a total of just over 1.9 million tons of grain,” the Polish edition of pap.pl quoted him as saying.
Malinowski stressed that this decision was made in connection with the forecasts of Polish analysts, who expect an even greater swell of grain to be shipped from Polish ports.
“Only from January to the end of May, the volume of grain transshipment in the port was about 1.1 million tons,” stated Malinowski.
According to his information, currently the capacity of the main grain terminals in the port of “Gdansk” is 300 thousand tons per month, and storage capacity – 126 thousand tons. The development of port capacities by almost 70% will allow to increase the transportation of grain in the near future. This will allow during the peak periods to get to the port 1500 trucks with grain.
The Port of Gdansk is gradually increasing the number of parking spaces. In total, there are already 780 parking spaces. By mid-July, their number to 970, said Malinowski.
President of the port also underlined that thanks to rakoraf (devices for taking samples of the grain intended for export – IF), it will be possible to check the quality of the grain in three parking lots within the Port of Gdańsk borders.
As reported, until September 15, 2023 by decision of the European Commission, a ban on imports of Ukrainian grain to five frontline countries: Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia.
“Ukrzaliznytsia” has significantly reduced the cost of transportation of grain cargo by rail (by reducing the wagon component of the tariff), and also fixed the average speed of cars for the quarter until September 1, 2023, said Valery Tkachev, deputy director of the department of commercial work UZ.
“From July 1, 2023, the cost of using Ukrzaliznytsia JSC grain railcars is 300 UAH/day without VAT,” he wrote on Facebook.
According to the updated tariffs UZ, the cost of transporting 1 ton of grain by rail is 9.4 $ / ton and 11.4-11.9 $ / ton for a distance of 300 km in the export direction through seaports and dry crossings, respectively, at a distance of 400 km – 11.7 $ / ton and 13.7-14.3 $ / ton; 500 km – 13.4 $ / ton and 15.4-16.3 $ / ton; 600 km – 15 $ / ton and 17.2-18.2 $ / ton.
In particular the cost of transportation takes into account the additional charges at the station of departure (2500 UAH/ton), the two days of use of the car during loading/unloading, freight charges, the return of empty wagons, and other indicators.
The UZ Board will also fix the average speed of movement of cars until September 1, 2023 (per quarter) for the predictability of the work of consignors with the rolling stock UZ.
Previously, average railcar speeds changed monthly and were announced on the 28th.
“This will allow shippers to better plan their work in the cars of Ukrzaliznytsia, as well as accurately calculate the cost of transportation,” – summarized Tkachev and urged shippers of grain cargo to actively use the rolling stock UZ for transportation of grain.
Approximate gross yield of cereals, leguminous plants and cereals in Ukraine, taking into account the areas under winter and sown spring crops in 2023, could be about 49.6 million tons compared to 53.1 million tons a year earlier, reported in the analytical agency “APK-Inform” with reference to the Ukrhydrometeocenter.
“Analysis of peculiarities of meteorological conditions of vegetation of grain, leguminous and cereal crops, state of crops, available reserves of productive moisture in the soil and agrometeorological calculations allow us to expect winter wheat yield in 2023 at 4, 3 tons/ha, winter rye – 3.2 tons/ha, winter barley – 3.5 tons/ha, spring barley – 3.2 tons/ha, spring wheat – 3.7 tons/ha, oats – 2.5 tons/ha, pea – 2.3 tons/ha, corn – 6.5 tons/ha, millet – 2.1 tons/ha, buckwheat – 1.1 tons/ha,” the report says.
According to the report, agrometeorological conditions for the formation of grain crops in Ukraine this year were satisfactory. But during the growing season there were some unfavorable periods, which could adversely affect the yield. As a result of excessive rains in April on the fields in some areas was overwatering the soil, creating difficult conditions for the conduct and completion of sowing of early spring grain and leguminous crops in optimal time.
The weather that prevailed in May (frequent rains, decreased air temperature, increased relative humidity during the day, cloudiness and prolonged dews) were able to restrain the development of dry phenomena.
In June weather in Ukraine had significant temperature contrasts (…), there was a shortage of effective precipitation in many areas of the south, central and northern regions, which led to a shortened growing season, early and simultaneous maturation of grain early crops in central and southern regions, stated in Ukrhydrometeocenter.
As reported, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy predicts a grain and leguminous crops in 2023 at 46 million tons, which is 10-15% less than a year earlier. At the same time, it is 2.5 times more than the domestic needs of Ukraine. There is no risk of grain shortage for domestic purposes today, the ministry said.
Ukraine exported in 2022/2023 marketing year (from July 1, 2022 to June 30, 2023) 48.996 million tons of grain and leguminous products, which is 641 thousand tons more than in 2021/2022 MY, said the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food.
During the previous marketing year, Ukraine exported 48.355 million tons of grain and leguminous products, in particular: 18.72 million tons of wheat, 5.747 million tons of barley, 161.5 thousand tons of rye and 23.409 million tons of corn.
It is noted that in 2022/2023, as of June 30, Ukraine reduced exports of wheat by 10.6% – to 16.836 million tons, barley by 52.9% – to 2.704 million tons, rye by 88.9% – to 18 thousand tons, but increased supplies of corn to foreign markets by 24.4%, which reached 29.128 million tons.
According to the report, Ukraine increased exports of all major export items of agricultural products in June 2023, in particular, 2.9 times the supplies to foreign markets of cereals and leguminous plants increased and reached 3.658 million tons. Export of wheat increased by 10.9 times – to 1.338 million tons of wheat (last June – 122 thousand tons), barley – 1.8 times – to 57 thousand tons, corn – twice – to 2.257 million tons.
Ukraine did not export rye in June 2023 and in June last year.
Since the beginning of 2022/2023 MY, Ukraine exported 153.6 thousand tons of flour, which is 2.2 times more than a year earlier, when exports were 70.7 thousand tons.
According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, Ukraine exported more than 22.5 million tons of grain in January-May 2023, including more than 14.3 million tons of corn, more than 7.2 million tons of wheat and more than 977 thousand tons of barley.
