Grain harvest in Ukraine in 2023, according to the forecast of the Ministry of Economy, will be about 49.5 million tons, which is better than the estimate of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) of 46 million tons, First Deputy Minister Denis Kudin told Interfax-Ukraine
“Ukraine will definitely have enough food, the problem with the rest of the world: we have become a weighty player on the world stage, so if the logistics of agricultural products from Ukraine is important to us because it is the inflow of foreign exchange earnings, it is important to the world because it is food security for it,” he said on the sidelines of the business forum on the rapid recovery of Ukraine in Luxembourg, organized by the Ukrainian-Luxembourg Business Club.
The First Deputy Minister noted that in the current situation the Ministry of Economy sees no need to resort to any bans or quotas on the export of agricultural products, but at the same time will maintain the licensing of its individual types.
“Through licensing we receive information on the exported volume, and if we see that the balance does not add up, that our domestic consumption is at risk of being unsustainable, then we reserve the right to limit the export,” he explained.
In general, as Kudin pointed out, the balance of payments forecast of the Ministry of Economy for 2023 is much more positive than that of the NBU.
According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, Ukrainian farmers harvested 52.6 million tons of grain and leguminous crops by January 27, 2023. During the week, the total area of harvested crops increased by 1 percentage point (p.p.) – up to 96% of previously planned areas, including corn which had to be harvested from 10% of areas (+3 p.p. during the week). By January 27, a total of 25.2 million tons of corn had been harvested.
Seven dry cargo ships carrying corn and wheat left Ukrainian ports on Friday, the Joint Coordination Center (JCC) reported.
“Seven ships left Ukrainian ports on January 27, carrying a total of 368,941 tons of grain and other food under the Black Sea Grain Initiative,” the report said.
Two dry-cargo vessels Tutor (69 756 tons of corn) and Tycoon (35 thousand tons of corn and 27.5 thousand tons of wheat) went to Israel. Navios Sagittarius (64,175 tons of wheat) went to Saudi Arabia, Arcturus (59,770 tons of wheat) – to Kenya.
Vessel Sword Lion delivered 25.5 thousand tons of corn to Italy, dry-cargo carrier Dsm Star delivered 8,329 tons of corn and 10,734 tons of wheat to Spain. The vessel Calypso will ship 68,177 tons of corn to China.
At the same time four dry-cargo ships, which on Friday passed through the maritime humanitarian corridor, are headed to Ukrainian ports.
The JCC reported that “80 applications for participation in the initiative have been submitted.”
“As of January 27, the total tonnage of grain and other agricultural products exported from the three Ukrainian ports is 18,790,961 tons. A total of 1,364 vessels have so far been allowed to move: 681 to arrive at Ukrainian ports and 683 to leave them,” summarized the JCC.
Agroholding Agrotrade exported about 500 thousand tons of grain in 2022, including 343.8 thousand tons of its own harvest, 147 thousand tons of agricultural products from third parties and 5.4 tons of organic products.
According to the Facebook page of the agrarian group, it exported most of all wheat and corn, while rye, sorghum, soybeans, rape and barley were also shipped abroad.
“Agrotrade noted that last year, due to Russian aggression, it was forced to look for new export routes, shipping grain by rail to Europe bypassing blocked Ukrainian seaports. However, in the second half of 2022, most of the agricultural products were shipped through the ports of Greater Odessa under “grain agreements.”
“Exports continue, although the grain corridor works very slowly. Up to nine ships per day are served. Exports are slow due to insufficient number of inspections. That is, grain exports could be more intensive if steamships could call at the terminals more often. Taking into account all the difficulties that exporters faced this year, we are satisfied with the results of our work,” Agrotrade quotes its director of foreign economic activity Andrei Booth.
Agrotrade Group is a vertically integrated holding of a complete agricultural cycle (production, processing, storage and trade of agricultural products). It cultivates over 70 thousand hectares of land in Chernigov, Sumy, Poltava and Kharkov regions. Profile crops – sunflower, corn, winter wheat, soybeans and rapeseed. It has its own network of elevators with a single storage capacity of 570,000 tonnes.
The Group also produces hybrids of corn and sunflower seeds, barley and winter wheat. A seed plant with an annual capacity of 20,000 tons of seeds was built in 2014 on the basis of the Kolos seed farm (Kharkiv region). In 2018, Agrotrade launched its own brand Agroseeds on the market.
The founder and CEO of Agrotrade is Vsevolod Kozhemyako.
Ukraine from the beginning of 2022/2023 marketing year (July-June) to January 27, 2012 and January 27, 2012 exported 25.99 million tons of cereals, including 14.69 million tons of corn (56.5% of total shipments), 9.4 million tons of wheat (36.2%) and 1.8 million tons of barley (6.9%).
According to the website of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food on Friday, the rate of grain exports since the beginning of the current MY is 30.86% lower than the same period of the previous MY, as 37.6 million tons were delivered abroad from July 1, 2021 to January 27, 2022. At the same time, the previous maximum rate of exports was achieved on January 9, 2023, when the lag from last year’s values was the lowest for the entire MY, 29.61%.
According to the agency, this week corn exports began to lag behind last MY for the first time since the start of the 2022/2023 MY, with 14.69 million tons delivered to foreign markets by January 27, 2023, compared to 14.95 million tons on January 27, 2022. In addition, Ukraine exported 9.4 million tons of wheat (1.78 times less than the same period last year), 1.8 million tons of barley (3.02 times less), 12.5 thousand tons of rye (12.2 times less) and 80.8 tons of flour (+28%) from the beginning of 2022/2023 MY.
It is specified that Ukraine exported 3.24 million tons of cereals, including 2.07 million tons of corn, 990 tons of wheat, 173 tons of barley and 11.8 thousand tons of flour since early January.
As follows from the Ministry data, during the period of January 20-27, 121.1 thousand tons of cereals per day were supplied to the foreign markets, whereas during the preceding period of January 9-20 – 140 thousand tons/day, January 2-9 – 121.7 thousand tons/day, December 21 – January 2 – 196.4 thousand tons/day on average, and December 14-21 – 134.3 thousand tons/day. Thus, the average daily rate of exports during the reporting period January 20-27, decreased by 13.5% compared to the previous period January 9-20.
As reported, Ukraine exported 48.51 million tons of grain and leguminous crops in 2021/2022 MY, which is 8.4% higher than in the previous MY, despite the full-scale invasion of Russia and the difficulties with the export of agricultural products due to the blockade of Ukrainian sea ports. 18.74 million tons of wheat (12.6% more than in 2020/2021MY), 23.54 million tons of corn (+1.9%), 5.75 million tons of barley (+35.9%), 70.9 thousand tons of flour (-44.1%) were supplied to foreign markets.
Ukraine in 2020/2021 MY exported 44.72 million tons of grain and leguminous crops: 16.64 million tons of wheat, 23.08 million tons of corn, 4.23 million tons of barley, 126.9 thousand tons of flour and 18.4 thousand tons of rye.
In 2019/2020, Ukraine exported 56.72 million tons of grain and leguminous crops.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects that the grain harvest in 2023 will decrease by 15% compared to 2022 and will amount to 46 million tons, said deputy head of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Serhiy Mykolaychuk.
“For this year, we assume that the grain harvest will be about 46 million tons and this is about 15% less than last year. For other crops, the situation is better. Somewhere even more than last year we allow for the harvest, somewhere less,” he said during a press briefing on Thursday.
Nikolaychuk noted that the harvest is one of the factors that the NBU took into account when revising the GDP forecast and when forecasting the trade balance and current account deficit.
Ukraine plans to supply grain to Kenya within the Grain from Ukraine humanitarian initiative. The two countries also agreed to strengthen cooperation in agriculture.
According to the website of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, the relevant issues were discussed during the meeting of the Deputy Minister Markiyan Dmytrasevych with Franklin Mithika Linturi, the Minister of Agriculture and Livestock Development of Kenya.
According to the ministry, Dmytrosevych said that Ukraine understands the severity of the food crisis in Kenya, where an unprecedented drought in 2022 led to the fact that almost 3 million people in the country are in dire need of humanitarian food aid.
In turn, the representative of Kenya noted that every year it is more and more difficult for local farmers to farm because of climate change. Kenya is trying to take measures to ensure sustainability of agricultural production, in particular, the country is interested in sharing experience with Ukraine in the use of crop technology.
As previously reported, a delegation of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy visited Senegal, Nigeria and Ghana, where they signed a memorandum of cooperation with Senegal in the field of agriculture. In addition, all three countries have expressed a desire to develop cooperation with Ukraine and a willingness to expand their ports to intensify the unloading and storage of Ukrainian grain.
As a result of the visit, Ukraine will supply 25 thousand tons of grain to Nigeria in the coming months within the Grain from Ukraine humanitarian initiative.
By the end of November 2022, more than 30 countries and international organizations joined Grain from Ukraine, raising a total of over $180 million for the purchase of Ukrainian food.
Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Great Britain, Hungary, Greece, Estonia, the EU, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Canada, Qatar, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Germany, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Republic of Korea, Romania, Slovenia, Turkey, Finland, France, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Switzerland, Sweden, and the USA, as well as NATO and the UN, have reported on providing financial assistance.
