The Board of Executive Directors of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has completed the first review of the Extended Funding Facility (EFF) program for Ukraine and approved the immediate release of the second tranche of SDR 663.9 million (about $890 million) to be used for budget support.
“Officials have made significant progress in meeting their EFF commitments under difficult conditions, meeting all applicable quantitative performance criteria by the end of April and structural benchmarks by the end of June, and remain highly committed to the program,” the fund said in a release Thursday on its website.
At the same time, the fund noted that sustained accountability and momentum for reforms are needed to ensure macroeconomic and financial stability in the difficult period ahead.
“This includes maintaining a solid tax revenue base (including by refraining from measures that could undermine the tax base), supporting sustainable disinflation and exchange rate stability, maintaining a healthy banking sector, and advancing critical governance and anti-corruption reforms, including on asset declarations, financial monitoring and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecution Service (SAP),” the release specified.
The IMF added that it is also crucial that external financing of the budget and reconstruction projects continue on concessional terms, compatible with financial and debt sustainability.
Fiscal policy efforts should also focus on developing a National Revenue Strategy (NRS) that will anchor much-needed revenue mobilization to support reconstruction and social spending, it was pointed out. “Restoring the legal framework for midterm budget preparation, budget credibility, and debt management is also critical, coupled with measures to increase fiscal transparency and strengthen public investment management,” the Fund noted.
Commenting on the financing strategy and debt sustainability, the IMF stated that external support for the budget will continue to make up the bulk of budget financing, although mobilizing domestic financing along with avoiding issuance is still important.
The Fund added that in addition to the March 2023 commitment by the Ukraine Creditors Group (CCG) to restructure part of the official debt, there is a credible process for resolving external commercial debt, according to Fund staff.
Speaking of monetary and exchange rate policy, the IMF stressed that the program aims to further support sustainable disinflation and exchange rate stability, including by maintaining an adequate level of foreign exchange reserves while prudently managing wartime excess liquidity.
“As soon as conditions permit, the program will support a transition to a more flexible exchange rate, a further loosening of exchange controls, and a return to an inflation-targeting system,” the Fund pointed out without any specification of timing.
In the financial sector, the IMF called for continued vigilance, given that the true state of the banking system remains unclear and risks of further shocks, including nationalization of banks, remain. She said bank diagnostics, banking supervision reform, state bank governance and contingency planning remain high priorities.
The fund also stressed the importance of governance and anti-corruption reforms needed to quickly restore living standards and pave the way for EU accession, as well as build public and donor confidence, including in the postwar period.
“It will also be important to pursue a comprehensive strategy for critical spending during recovery and reconstruction, including on energy and procurement,” the IMF added.
As reported, the IMF and Ukraine reached a staff-level agreement on an updated set of economic and financial policies as part of the first review of the four-year $15.6 billion EFF program on May 30.
It was noted that all the quantitative performance criteria at the end of April and structural benchmarks at the end of May had been met, paving the way for the IMF board of directors to consider granting Ukraine the second tranche of the EFF program of about $900 million (SDR663.9 million).
The program was approved on March 31 this year, and the first tranche of $2.7 billion was allocated in early April as well. The program’s schedule assumes that Ukraine will receive three tranches of SDR664 million (about $900 million) after the first tranche in mid-June and October of this year and in late February of the following year based on the first, second and third revisions, when the fulfillment of obligations is estimated for the end of April, June and December of this year, respectively.
The International Monetary Fund’s four-year extended EFF financing program for Ukraine also envisions the country receiving $80 billion from multilateral and bilateral donors during this period, including $20 billion in grants and $60 billion in concessional loans, as well as another $20 billion in debt flow relief, said Gavin Gray, head of the Fund mission.
At a press conference on Friday, after announcing the decision to approve the $15.6 billion EFF program, he recalled two announcements made last week: from a group of official Ukrainian creditors about their willingness to defer the country’s debt payments for the program period and about Ukraine’s intention to agree the same with the holders of Eurobonds and other external commercial debts.
The board of directors of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Friday approved a four-year, SDR11.6 billion ($15.6 billion) extended EFF program as part of a total support package for Ukraine of $115 billion, the Fund said in a statement.
“The Ukraine program (for 2023-2027), supported by the EFF, aims to anchor policies to maintain fiscal, external, price and financial stability and support economic recovery, while improving governance and strengthening institutions to promote long-term growth in the context of post-war recovery and Ukraine’s path to the EU,” the IMF said.
The Fund specified that the decision of the board of directors allows for immediate disbursement of about SDR2 billion (or $2.7 billion).
IMF mission chief Gavin Gray clarified to reporters that the first review of the program is expected in June-July this year, the second by the end of October, possibly in early November, and from 2024 will be quarterly.
According to the release, EFF approval is expected to attract large-scale concessional financing from international donors and Ukraine’s partners to help resolve Ukraine’s balance of payments problem, achieve medium-term external viability and restore debt sustainability on a prospective basis in both baseline and negative scenarios.
The IMF notes that in view of the exceptionally high uncertainty faced by Ukraine, the EFF program envisages a two-stage approach. In the first phase of the program, scheduled for 2023-2024, the focus will be on three goals. These include, among others, strengthening the 2023 budget and supporting revenue mobilization, including by avoiding new measures that could undermine tax revenues.
In addition, it is about sustainable disinflation and exchange rate stability, including by maintaining sufficient foreign exchange reserves, and promoting long-term financial stability, including by preparing a more in-depth assessment of the banking sector and further strengthening the independence of the central bank.
“Independent and effective anti-corruption institutions will help reduce corruption risks during martial law and build public and donor confidence in future reconstruction,” the Fund adds.
He also noted that the first phase of the program will protect social spending.
“The second phase of the program will shift the focus to more ambitious structural reforms to strengthen macroeconomic stability, support early post-war recovery, and enhance resilience and higher long-term growth, including in the context of Ukraine’s EU accession goals,” the IMF pointed out.
According to the release, Ukraine is expected to return to its pre-war policy fundamentals, mainly a flexible exchange rate and inflation targeting, while improving productivity and competitiveness, strengthening institutions and addressing financial and energy sector vulnerabilities.
In addition, fiscal policy will focus on critical structural reforms to guarantee medium-term revenues by implementing a national revenue strategy, along with improving public financial management and introducing public investment management reforms to support postwar recovery.
“The risks to the EFF program are exceptionally high. The success of the program depends on the size, composition and timing of concessional external financing to help close the budget deficit and external financing and restore debt sustainability on a forward-looking basis under baseline and negative scenarios,” said First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath.
IMF Chief of Mission Gavin Gray specified that besides $15.6 billion from the Fund, the support package implies $80 billion from multilateral and bilateral donors, of which $20 billion in grants and $60 billion in concessional loans, as well as another $20 billion in deferred external debt payments.
According to him, the baseline scenario assumes the completion (winding down) of the war in mid-2024, while the negative scenario – by the end of 2025 with an increase in financing needs up to $240 billion.
At the same time, the IMF representative stressed that the program provides additional guarantees from a number of shareholders of the Fund, as preferred creditors, in particular the G7 countries, Belgium, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Slovakia and Spain.
Reinstating the obligation for officials to file asset and income declarations in the coming months is one of the conditions of the $15.6 billion expanded EFF financing program approved by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for Ukraine on Friday, Fund mission chief Gavin Gray said.
“Under the program, the authorities are committed to a targeted recovery of asset declarations even in the current circumstances. We see this as an important measure…,” he said at a briefing Friday.
Gray specified that the IMF will work with the authorities on this issue in order to resolve it by the first review of the program in June-July this year.
As reported, in February this year, the ambassadors of G7 countries in Ukraine expressed hope that the Verkhovna Rada will soon resume the system of electronic declaration of assets and income of officials, which was suspended during martial law, which “will prevent corruption and strengthen citizens’ trust in government.
Chairman of the National Agency for Combating Corruption (NACC) Oleksandr Novikov said in mid-March that he expects the resumption of declarations in the next two months, but believes that the public part of the register of declarations should remain hidden until the end of the war.
According to him, all public authorities have access to the data of the register of declarations and the data they need to perform their official duties.
Declarations for the year 2022 filed about 6% of declarants. For 2021 – up to 50%, including two deputy heads of the presidential office, the Minister of Education and Science, the Minister of Defense, 28 people’s deputies, five heads of regional military administrations and 163 judges.
The Board of Directors of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) at a meeting on Friday approved Ukraine’s request to open a new four-year extended financing program EFF for a total of SDR11.6 billion ($15.6 billion), an informed source told Interfax-Ukraine news agency.
According to him, the official announcement of the Fund is expected in the very near future on Friday.
According to the agenda published earlier on the Fund’s website, the board also summarized the results of the Monitoring Program for Ukraine with the involvement of the Board of Directors (PMB) opened in December.
As earlier reported, on March 21, the IMF reported reaching a staff-level agreement (SLA) on a new four-year EFF program for Ukraine worth SDR11.6 billion (about $15.6 billion). The fund specified that the final decision of the board of directors is expected in the coming weeks.
On March 24, the Cabinet of Ministers approved the draft Letter of Intent of the IMF and the National Bank of Ukraine and the draft Memorandum on Economic and Financial Policies. At this stage, the documents themselves are traditionally not published.
The program was supposed to be divided into two stages. The first one aims at maintaining stability, lasts 12-18 months and is based on the PMB, while the second phase, with more structural reforms, aims at growth and European integration.
Negotiations on the new EFF program were preceded by the PMB Monitoring Program. With the IMF unprepared to disburse significant funding immediately, Ukraine requested it from the Fund last fall for a period of four months and received approval from the Board of Directors on December 20.
On February 17, an IMF mission concluded in Warsaw, resulting in a statement on the SLA for early termination of the PMB program and the transition to the preparation of a new, expanded program involving financing.
Canada is going to provide a $1.8 billion loan to Ukraine through the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in budget year 2023, CBC TV channel reported with reference to the country’s draft budget.
“Canada will extend a $2.4 billion Canadian dollars ($1.8 billion) loan to Ukraine in the coming budget year. The measure is contained in the latest federal budget, tabled in Parliament on Tuesday by Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland,” the report said.
The loan for Ukraine will be distributed through the IMF. It is intended to cover the budget deficit and pay for social services, including medical services.
According to the TV channel, separately, the Canadian federal budget also announced CAD 84 million (almost $62 million) in additional direct humanitarian aid for Ukraine in the coming fiscal year – money which will be used for mental health services, the removal of mines and other measures. The money will come out of the existing budget at Global Affairs Canada.
