Ukraine’s positive foreign trade balance in ferrous metals decreased by approximately 24% in January–July 2026, to $655 million, according to Open4Business calculations based on data from the State Customs Service.
Over the seven months, Ukraine exported $1.678 billion worth of ferrous metals, while imports amounted to $1.023 billion.
During the same period of 2025, exports reached $1.816 billion, while imports, based on their current growth of 7.2%, amounted to approximately $954 million. Thus, the trade surplus at that time stood at approximately $862 million.
The reduction in the positive balance is associated with two trends: the export revenue of Ukrainian steelmakers decreased by 7.6%, while the value of products imported into the country increased by 7.2%.
In July, the gap between exports and imports narrowed even further: ferrous metal exports amounted to $199.9 million, while imports totalled $176.4 million.
Despite the deterioration in dynamics, Ukraine’s trade in ferrous metals remains in surplus. However, the margin of exports over imports is becoming significantly smaller.
Source: State Customs Service of Ukraine, Open4Business calculations.
Ukrainian steelmakers reduced foreign exchange earnings from ferrous metal exports by 7.6% in January–July 2026 compared to the same period last year, down to $1.678 billion, according to data from the State Customs Service.
In January–July 2025, ferrous metal exports brought Ukraine $1.816 billion.
The share of ferrous metals in the country’s total merchandise exports also declined—to 6.95% from 7.79% a year earlier, or by 0.84 percentage points.
At the same time, imports of ferrous metals into Ukraine continued to grow. Over the seven-month period, they increased by 7.2%—to $1.023 billion.
Thus, in 2026, the Ukrainian metallurgical industry faced both a decline in export revenue and increased competition from imported products.
By comparison: at the end of 2025, Ukraine, on the contrary, increased its export revenue from ferrous metals by 7.85%—to $3.339 billion—following a 16.9% increase in 2024.
Source: State Customs Service of Ukraine, data for January–July 2026.
In January–July of this year, Ukrainian companies increased their consumption of rolled metal by 0.27% compared to the same period last year, reaching 2.309 million metric tons.
According to a press release issued by the “Ukrmetallurgprom” association on Friday, 1.063 million metric tons were imported during this period, accounting for 46.06% of the domestic rolled steel consumption market.
According to “Ukrmetallurgprom,” in January–July 2026, Ukrainian steel companies produced 3.322 million metric tons of rolled steel (91.7% of the figure for the same period in 2025), of which, according to the State Customs Service of Ukraine, approximately 2.076 million metric tons—or 62.5%—were exported. In January–July 2025, the share of exports was
60.2% (2.182 million metric tons out of a total rolled steel production of 3.622 million metric tons).
The share of semi-finished products in export shipments in January–July 2026 was 42.58%, which is significantly higher than the figure for the first seven months of 2025 (32.58%). The share of flat-rolled products in exports from January through July 2026 was slightly lower than in January through July 2025 (43.74% and 44.55%, respectively). The share of long products, however, is noticeably lower than in January–July 2025 (13.68% in 2026 versus 22.87% in 2025).
The structure of imports in January–July 2026 is characterized by a marked dominance of flat-rolled products over structural steel (66.59% and 26.94%, respectively); however, in January–July 2025, the dominance of flat-rolled products over long products was significantly greater (74.77% and 20.19%, respectively).
“In January–July 2026, the domestic market capacity was 2.309 million metric tons of rolled steel, of which 1.063 million metric tons, or 46.06%, consisted of imports. In January–July 2025, the domestic market capacity was 2,302,700 metric tons, of which 862,700 metric tons, or 37.46%, were imported. “Thus, in January–July 2026, the domestic market capacity increased by 0.27% compared to January–July 2025, with a simultaneous 8.58% rise in the share of imports,” the press release states.
According to the State Customs Service, the main export markets for Ukrainian rolled metal in January–July of this year were the European Union (81.9%), the rest of Europe (9.6%), and the CIS (6.5%).
Among steel importers for the first seven months of 2026, other European countries ranked first (49.8%), followed by Asian countries (25.5%), and EU-27 countries (16.0%).
As previously reported, Ukraine’s rolled metal market grew by 21.73% in 2025 compared to 2024, reaching 4 million 1.6 thousand metric tons. Imports totaled 1 million 603.6 thousand metric tons, accounting for 40.07% of domestic rolled metal consumption.
Ukraine’s rolled metal market in 2024 contracted by 6.26% compared to the previous year—to 3,288.4 thousand metric tons, while in 2023 it grew 2.19 times compared to 2022—to 3,505.6 thousand metric tons.
According to the Experts Club analytical center, citing data from the A-95 Consulting Group, the Ukrainian gasoline market continues to be concentrated around supplies from Poland and Lithuania: in July 2026, these two countries accounted for 55% of total imports.
Ukraine received 56,100 tonnes of gasoline from Lithuania and 51,700 tonnes from Poland. Together, this amounted to around 107,800 tonnes out of total imports of approximately 196,000 tonnes.
The Polish supply route is demonstrating particularly high growth rates. Compared with July last year, the volume of supplies increased by 68% and reached its highest level since August 2025.
Imports from Lithuania increased by 16% year-on-year.
The ORLEN oil refining group plays a key role in both supply routes. The group’s facilities in Poland and Lithuania supplied around 97,000 tonnes of gasoline to the Ukrainian market.
A-95 estimates ORLEN’s share at more than half of total imports. Comparing the rounded figures of 97,000 tonnes and the total volume of 196,000 tonnes, this represents approximately half of the market.
The high level of concentration has a dual effect.
On the one hand, the large and stable refineries in Poland and Lithuania allow Ukraine to rapidly increase purchases during periods of higher demand and compensate for the loss of other suppliers.
On the other hand, more than half of the available supply comes from only two geographical routes, while a very significant share of deliveries is linked to a single refining group.
Poland’s importance increased particularly after Ukraine switched to E10 gasoline. The change in standards limited the possibility of using some traditional sources, including certain Greek refineries.
At the same time, Greece has not disappeared from the market entirely. In July, Ukraine imported around 25,000 tonnes of gasoline produced by Motor Oil.
Germany became another rapidly growing supply route. It supplied 21,000 tonnes of gasoline, 78% more than in July 2025. The UPG network imported the entire volume.
Thus, the structure of imports in July demonstrates two parallel trends: ORLEN’s growing role as a key supplier and simultaneous attempts by Ukraine’s largest fuel retail networks to diversify purchases through Germany, Romania and Greece.
According to the Experts Club analytical center, citing data from the A-95 Consulting Group, Ukraine imported about 196,000 tonnes of gasoline in July 2026, the highest figure since August 2025.
At the same time, data from an infographic published by the A-95 Consulting Group show that the volume of supplies increased by approximately 51% compared with June. In June, the main supply routes accounted for about 130,000 tonnes of gasoline, whereas in July the figure reached around 196,000 tonnes.
The sharp increase in imports occurred despite the Ukrainian market’s transition to the E10 standard on July 1, which requires the mandatory addition of bioethanol to gasoline. The new requirement temporarily narrowed the range of available foreign suppliers.
In particular, the Greek Hellenic Petroleum refinery does not produce gasoline of the required standard. Its products had previously been used by Ukrainian traders during periods of increased demand.
At the same time, the beginning of July coincided with rising petroleum product prices on the global market and increased domestic demand.
A-95 noted that the situation was most strained during the first half of the month. However, the increase in supplies made it possible to stabilize the market in the second half of July. Importers also contracted the necessary volumes for August in advance.
Poland and Lithuania became the main sources of additional supply. Imports from Lithuania increased from 40,500 tonnes in June to 56,100 tonnes in July, while imports from Poland rose from 30,700 tonnes to 51,700 tonnes.
Supplies from Germany also increased noticeably, from 16,900 tonnes to 20,900 tonnes. Around 34,000 tonnes arrived from Romania, compared with 31,200 tonnes one month earlier.
At the same time, imports from Moldova decreased from 9,600 tonnes to 5,800 tonnes.
Thus, July became a test of the Ukrainian market’s ability to rapidly restructure external supplies following changes to gasoline quality requirements. Despite the initial contraction of the available supply base, importers managed to increase supplies by approximately one and a half times within a single month.
In July 2026, the state-owned company Ukrnafta increased its diesel fuel imports by 2.4 times compared to July of last year—to nearly 60,000 metric tons—ranking second among the country’s largest importers.
These figures were reported by the “A-95 Consulting Group.” A total of 134 companies imported diesel fuel in July.
The OKKO Group retained first place, importing more than 73,000 metric tons of diesel fuel. Its imports rose by 32% compared to July 2025.
Ukrnafta accounted for about 59,800 metric tons, or approximately 10.6% of the country’s total diesel fuel imports in July.
UPG took third place with 53,200 metric tons. Next came Energo Trade JSC with 50,700 metric tons and WOG with 42,900 metric tons.
Thus, the five largest importers together imported about 280,000 metric tons of diesel fuel—nearly half of the total volume of supplies to Ukraine in July.
Among the major market players, the Western Fuel and Energy Company (ZPEK) demonstrated the highest growth rate, increasing its imports by a factor of 5.3—to approximately 32,000 metric tons.
The sharp increase in Ukrnafta’s purchases comes amid its growing role in the Ukrainian petroleum products market following the expansion of its own network of gas stations and trading operations.
Overall, Ukraine imported 562,000 metric tons of diesel fuel in July—5% more than a year earlier.
However, despite the rise in imports, A-95 reported a fuel shortage in the market. Analysts cite several reasons for this, including increased demand following a rise in global prices, higher purchases by industrial and private consumers, and increased consumption due to the shift in agricultural exports toward road and rail transport.
In August, analysts expect the situation to gradually normalize thanks to a decline in global prices and an increase in fuel supply.
