Net outflow from Ukraine in 2026 will remain at the 2025 level of 0.2 million people. This worsened migration forecast was included by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) in its updated macro forecast, which was also worsened due to expectations of a longer war.
“Given the slow normalization of economic conditions, estimates of migration flows in the coming years have been worsened. It is expected that in 2026, the outflow of migrants will continue at a similar pace to the current one (about 0.2 million people), while the April forecast predicted the return of 0.2 million people,” the National Bank’s inflation report published on its website says.
“Net returns will only begin in 2027 (about 0.1 million people, compared to 0.5 million in the previous forecast),” the NBU added.
At the same time, it left its assumptions for 2025 unchanged: a net outflow of about 0.2 million people is expected.
The NBU report notes that the risks of increased combat activity and shelling of rear regions, occupation of new territories, or a significantly longer war remain significant. If these risks materialize, migration outflows will intensify.
“The active policy of recipient countries’ governments to retain Ukrainians, especially those involved in the labor market, is also a negative risk for the migration forecast,” the National Bank adds.
According to the updated forecast, 5.8 million Ukrainians will remain abroad this year, 6 million next year, and 5.9 million in 2027.
At the same time, an alternative forecast, which assumes a faster end to the war, predicts that next year the number of Ukrainians abroad will fall to 5.6 million, and in 2027 to 5.1 million, which is in line with the April forecast.
As reported, the National Bank of Ukraine worsened its macroeconomic forecast in July: in 2025, economic growth will be 2.1% instead of the previously expected 3.1%, and in 2026-2027, it will be 2-3% instead of 3.7-3.9%.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has applied to PJSC IC “Euroins Ukraine” a measure of influence in the form of a written warning for violation of certain requirements of legislation and regulatory documents, the NBU website reports.
Such a decision was made by the Committee for Supervision and Regulation of Non-Banking Financial Services Markets on July 21, 2025, based on the results of a scheduled inspection conducted by the Inspection Department of the NBU.
During the inspection was revealed, in particular, the violation of certain requirements established by the law “On Insurance”, the provisions of the NBU on the secrecy of insurance, on the peculiarities of the conclusion of insurance contracts with consumers, on the authorization of financial service providers and the conditions of their activities in the provision of financial services.
The information emphasizes that IC “Euroins Ukraine” is obliged to eliminate violations until September 22, 2025.
IC “Euroins Ukraine” is a universal insurance company. It has been working in the Ukrainian market since 1992. It is a part of Bulgarian insurance group Euroins, one of the largest independent insurance groups in the countries of Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe.
On July 16, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) announced a tender for medical insurance for employees with an expected purchase price of UAH 106.912 million, according to the Prozorro electronic procurement system. Applications for participation will be accepted until 11:00 a.m. on July 31. The amount of security provided by participants is UAH 1 million.
As reported, on June 4, 2024, the NBU announced its intention to conclude a contract with SK Universalna (Kyiv) for voluntary medical insurance for its employees. The company’s price offer was UAH 76.720 million against the expected cost of UAH 77.244 million. Insurance companies Kraina and VUSO also participated in the tender with bids of UAH 72.368 million and UAH 76.728 million, respectively.
The National Bank of Ukraine has fined Aventus Ukraine LLC 2.448 million hryvnia for violations identified during an inspection.
According to the NBU website, this measure was taken for violating the requirements of the Law “On Consumer Lending” and the provisions on establishing additional requirements for interaction with consumers of financial services and other persons in the settlement of overdue debts (ethical conduct requirements).
Aventus Ukraine LLC is required to pay the fine within one month of the date this decision comes into force.
Furthermore, the company received a written warning from the regulator for violating the requirements of the Law “On Consumer Lending,” the provisions on licensing and registration of financial service providers and the conditions for their activities in the provision of financial services, and the provisions on the authorization of financial service providers and the conditions for their activities in the provision of financial services.
Aventus Ukraine LLC must take measures to eliminate the causes and conditions that contributed to these violations.
These decisions were made by the Committee for Supervision and Regulation of Non-Bank Financial Services Markets on July 14, 2025, based on the results of scheduled inspections.
Aventus Ukraine LLC was registered in January 2017. The company’s authorized capital is UAH 20 million.
The National Bank of Ukraine on July 7, 2025 applied to JSC “IC ”INGO” (Kiev) a measure of influence in the form of imposing a fine in the amount of UAH 1.819 million for violation of legislation on the protection of the rights of consumers of financial services, reported on the website of the NBU.
According to the information, during the inspection of the company were found violations of legislation on the protection of the rights of consumers of financial services defined by the Civil Code of Ukraine, the laws “On electronic commerce”, “On insurance”, “On financial services and financial companies”, as well as the provisions of the NBU on the peculiarities of the conclusion of insurance contracts with consumers and on the authorization of financial service providers and the conditions of their activities in the provision of financial services.
IC INGO is obliged to pay the fine within one month from the date of entry into force of this decision.
JSC Insurance Company INGO has been providing insurance services for 30 years. Since 2017, the main shareholder is the Ukrainian business group DCH.
The volume of remittances to Ukraine for January-May 2025 decreased by 15.4% to – $3.5 billion, in particular net remuneration of labor decreased by 18.7%, and the volume of private transfers – by 11.2%, according to the data of the balance of payments of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU). As noted in the statistics, in May, the volume of private money transfers decreased by 13.2%, to $0.7 billion.
“Wages that Ukrainians receive from abroad decreased by 9.5%, and other private transfers received through official channels decreased by 9.7%,” – commented the National Bank.
Overall, the volume of transfers through official channels in May 2025 was 9.6% lower than in May 2024, while receipts through informal channels decreased by 18% year-on-year.
In May 2025, the primary revenue balance turned negative to $45 million against a surplus of $20 million in May 2024.
“The decline in labor compensation receipts (down 16.9%) was more rapid than the decline in investment income payments6 (down 2.7%).” The secondary income balance surplus shrank,” the regulator explains.
At the same time, the secondary income balance surplus decreased to $0.7bn from $1.0bn in May last year due to a reduction in technical and humanitarian aid.
