Ukrainian banks expect further growth in their business and household loan portfolios over the next 12 months, as well as an increase in demand for all types of corporate and retail loans in the third quarter, according to the results of a survey by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
At the same time, these expectations have become more subdued: the balance of responses regarding growth in the business loan portfolio fell to 38.2% from 72.2% in the first quarter of 2026, and for retail loans—to 38.9% from 65.1%.
Banks forecast a slight improvement in the quality of the corporate loan portfolio over the next 12 months: the balance of responses stood at 7.3% compared to 7.1% a quarter earlier. At the same time, for the fourth consecutive quarter, respondents expect the quality of loans to households to deteriorate, although the corresponding balance has become less negative—“minus” 16.3% versus “minus” 17%.
Financial institutions also expect growth in deposits from businesses and households. The balance of responses regarding the expected change in the volume of corporate sector deposits rose to 53.7% from 50.7%, reaching its highest level since the start of the full-scale invasion, while the balance for household deposits rose to 53.8% from 53.3%.
In the second quarter, business demand for loans increased: the overall balance of responses rose to 35.5% from 34.4% in January–March, also reaching its highest level since the start of the full-scale invasion.
Demand for long-term loans saw the sharpest increase—rising to 35.4% from 24.6%. Demand for loans to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) rose to 24.7% from 23.8%, while demand for loans to large enterprises also increased, though at a slower pace than a quarter ago: the balance of responses fell to 26.9% from 34%.
Banks cited the need for capital investments and working capital as the main drivers of the growth in corporate demand. In the third quarter, they expect demand to increase for all types of business loans, particularly long-term ones.
Household demand also rose in the second quarter for both mortgage and consumer loans. According to banks’ estimates, demand for consumer loans has been growing since the second quarter of 2023, and for mortgages—since the beginning of 2025.
In July–September, respondents expect a further increase in household demand for loans, particularly for mortgages. Several large banks cited lower borrowing costs and improved prospects for the real estate market as the main drivers of rising mortgage demand.
Lending standards for the corporate sector remained virtually unchanged in the second quarter: the balance of responses stood at 1.7%, compared with “minus” 2.9% a quarter earlier. Standards for SMEs eased, though to a lesser extent than in January–March: “minus” 3.3% versus “minus” 25.2%.
In the third quarter, banks generally do not plan to change their corporate lending standards but expect them to ease for SME loans.
The approval rate for business loan applications remained largely unchanged in the second quarter: the balance of responses stood at 0% compared to 12.6% a quarter earlier. At the same time, for SMEs, it stood at 13% versus 24.4%, as some banks reported the possibility of providing them with larger loans.
For households, banks eased standards in the second quarter for both mortgages and consumer loans. For mortgages, the net balance of responses fell to “minus” 14.9% from zero, while for consumer loans it stood at “minus” 21.5% compared with “minus” 23.1% a quarter earlier.
Competition among banks remained the main factor behind the easing of consumer lending standards. For mortgages, additional factors included expectations regarding overall economic activity and the outlook for the real estate market.
Banks also expect a further easing of standards for both mortgage and consumer loans in the third quarter.
The approval rate for household loan applications rose in April–June. Banks reported lower interest rates, higher loan amounts, and longer terms for consumer loans, as well as lower mortgage costs and somewhat stricter collateral requirements for mortgages.
Banks assessed the debt burden on businesses in the second quarter as moderate, although assessments regarding SMEs tended toward the low end of the scale. The debt burden on households remained low.
In the second quarter, banks recorded an increase in credit, foreign exchange, and liquidity risks. The balance of responses regarding credit risk rose to 30.3% from 24.9% a quarter ago; for foreign exchange risk, it stood at 14.5% versus 21.3%; for liquidity risk, 8.4% versus 18.8%; while interest rate and operational risks remained largely unchanged.
At the same time, respondents expect currency and credit risks, in particular, to intensify in the third quarter.
The survey was conducted from June 16 to July 8, 2026, among credit managers at 25 banks, which accounted for 96% of the banking system’s total assets.
BANK, BUSINESS, LOAN, NBU, POPULATION
In the first half of 2026, 259,853 thousand deaths were recorded in Ukraine, which is 4% more than during the same period last year.
This is the first officially recorded increase in the number of deaths in the last five years, OpenDataBot reported on July 22, citing information from the Ministry of Justice.
As is traditional, the highest number of deaths was recorded in the Dnipropetrovsk region—28,386 thousand cases. This region accounted for nearly one in nine deaths in Ukraine.
In Kyiv, 20,121 thousand deaths were recorded over the six-month period. Compared to the first half of 2025, the figure in the capital increased by 11%—the largest increase among all regions.
For comparison, 249,002 thousand deaths were recorded in Ukraine during the first half of 2025, and 250,972 thousand in 2024.
DEMOGRAPHY, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, KYIV, MORTALITY, POPULATION
The population in Ukraine’s government-controlled territories currently stands at 29 million people, according to Ella Libanova, director of the Mykhailo Ptukha Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Research at the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.
In an episode of the Open Reality special project, she reported that this joint estimate by the State Statistics Service (SSS) and the Institute of Demography—made without a census—is based on data from mobile operators and government registries. “As of today, this is the joint estimate by the SSS and our Institute—29 million. I always say that it’s plus or minus about 300,000,” Libanova noted.
Since no population census has been conducted in Ukraine since 2001, the researchers used data from three mobile operators as a basis, supplementing it with other sources.
“We used this database as our foundation and supplemented it with various available sources of information for verification and refinement: the labor market; data from the Pension Fund, aggregated with data from tax authorities, which includes not only pensioners; data from the Migration Service and the Ministry of Justice from the demographic registry; we also used the ‘school registry’ and EHealth,” the expert explained.
Libanova acknowledged that this method is not ideal, but there is currently no alternative to it.
She also noted that, according to Eurostat, approximately 4.3 million Ukrainians currently reside in European Union countries.
At the same time, according to Libanova, there is no reliable data on the number of Ukrainians who have left for Russia since the start of the full-scale war. She also noted that a policy of demographic replacement is being carried out in the territories temporarily occupied by Russia: the Ukrainian population is being displaced and replaced by people from other regions of Russia, which, in her opinion, is a continuation of the practice of population assimilation.
Most Swiss are willing to support an initiative to cap the country’s population at 10 million by 2050, a move that could impact Switzerland’s immigration policy, labor market, and real estate market, according to local media reports.
According to a poll conducted six weeks before the nationwide referendum scheduled for June 14, 2026, 52% of respondents supported the initiative or were inclined to support it, 46% opposed it, and another 2% were undecided. Over 16,000 people participated in the survey.
The “No to 10 Million in Switzerland!” initiative is being promoted by the Swiss People’s Party (SVP). It stipulates that the country’s permanent population should not exceed 10 million people by 2050. Upon reaching an interim threshold of 9.5 million people, the government would be required to implement additional measures to limit immigration, including potentially tightening quotas on work visas and asylum applications. Reuters notes that the proposal also calls for Switzerland to withdraw from the EU agreement on the free movement of citizens.
Supporters of the initiative link the need to limit population growth to the strain on infrastructure, housing shortages, overcrowded public transportation, and rising costs for social and medical services.
The Federal Council and both chambers of parliament recommend rejecting the initiative. Authorities warn that strict restrictions on migration could create legal uncertainty, complicate relations with the European Union, and exacerbate the labor shortage in the economy. Reuters also notes that Switzerland’s population already exceeds 9 million, and the share of foreigners stood at over 27% in 2024.
For the real estate market, the possible adoption of the initiative could have a dual effect. On the one hand, limiting population growth could theoretically reduce long-term pressure on housing demand. On the other hand, stricter immigration rules and a potential reevaluation of relations with the EU could affect Switzerland’s investment appeal, the availability of labor in the construction and service sectors, as well as demand from foreign residents.
According to data from the Swiss State Secretariat for Migration, as of the end of 2024, the largest groups of the country’s permanent foreign population were citizens of Italy—346,981 thousand people, Germany—332,132 thousand, Portugal—263,028, and France—173,353. In total, 1.579 million citizens of EU/EFTA countries and 789,735 citizens of third countries resided permanently in Switzerland.
Ukrainians occupy a distinct place in Switzerland’s migration statistics following the outbreak of full-scale war. According to SEM data, in 2024 the number of individuals with active S protection status rose to 68,070 compared to 66,083 the previous year. This figure can be used as a rough estimate of the number of Ukrainian refugees in the country, although the actual number of Ukrainians in Switzerland may differ due to people holding other types of residence permits.
The population of European Union countries is projected to decline by 53 million (11.7%) between 2025 and 2100, according to a forecast by the EU’s statistical office (Eurostat).
In 2025, the EU population was estimated at 451.8 million, resuming its growth trend in 2022 after a hiatus caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021. The population is projected to grow over the next three years, peaking at 453.3 million in 2029, after which it will gradually decline to 398.8 million by 2100.
By the start of the next century, the share of children and youth (ages 0–19) in the total population will decline to 17% from 20% last year, and the working-age population (ages 20–64) will fall to 50% from 58%. In contrast, the share of people aged 65–79 will rise to 17% from 16%, and those aged 80 and older to 16% from 6%, according to a Eurostat report.
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank released a video on how the world’s population has changed in recent years; a more detailed video analysis is available here – https://www.youtube.com/shorts/MnNXy72azrw
By 2100, the population will decline in 18 European Union countries, with the sharpest declines expected in Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, according to Eurostat data.
Under Eurostat’s baseline scenario, Latvia’s population will decrease by 33.9%, Lithuania’s by 33.4%, and Poland’s by 31.6% by the end of the century compared to 2025. A significant decline is also expected in Germany, Slovenia, Finland, and the Czech Republic, where the decline will be around 10%.
At the same time, population growth is projected only in nine EU countries by 2100. The population will increase by more than 25% only in Luxembourg and Malta—by 36.4% and 26%, respectively. Growth of 10–20% is expected in Sweden and Ireland.
Despite the overall population decline, Germany, according to Eurostat estimates, will remain the most populous EU country in 2100 with 74.7 million inhabitants. It will be followed by France with 67.2 million and Spain with 49.8 million people.
The statistical office notes that differences between countries will be significant both in terms of when peak population is reached and the scale of subsequent decline or growth.
