Most Swiss are willing to support an initiative to cap the country’s population at 10 million by 2050, a move that could impact Switzerland’s immigration policy, labor market, and real estate market, according to local media reports.
According to a poll conducted six weeks before the nationwide referendum scheduled for June 14, 2026, 52% of respondents supported the initiative or were inclined to support it, 46% opposed it, and another 2% were undecided. Over 16,000 people participated in the survey.
The “No to 10 Million in Switzerland!” initiative is being promoted by the Swiss People’s Party (SVP). It stipulates that the country’s permanent population should not exceed 10 million people by 2050. Upon reaching an interim threshold of 9.5 million people, the government would be required to implement additional measures to limit immigration, including potentially tightening quotas on work visas and asylum applications. Reuters notes that the proposal also calls for Switzerland to withdraw from the EU agreement on the free movement of citizens.
Supporters of the initiative link the need to limit population growth to the strain on infrastructure, housing shortages, overcrowded public transportation, and rising costs for social and medical services.
The Federal Council and both chambers of parliament recommend rejecting the initiative. Authorities warn that strict restrictions on migration could create legal uncertainty, complicate relations with the European Union, and exacerbate the labor shortage in the economy. Reuters also notes that Switzerland’s population already exceeds 9 million, and the share of foreigners stood at over 27% in 2024.
For the real estate market, the possible adoption of the initiative could have a dual effect. On the one hand, limiting population growth could theoretically reduce long-term pressure on housing demand. On the other hand, stricter immigration rules and a potential reevaluation of relations with the EU could affect Switzerland’s investment appeal, the availability of labor in the construction and service sectors, as well as demand from foreign residents.
According to data from the Swiss State Secretariat for Migration, as of the end of 2024, the largest groups of the country’s permanent foreign population were citizens of Italy—346,981 thousand people, Germany—332,132 thousand, Portugal—263,028, and France—173,353. In total, 1.579 million citizens of EU/EFTA countries and 789,735 citizens of third countries resided permanently in Switzerland.
Ukrainians occupy a distinct place in Switzerland’s migration statistics following the outbreak of full-scale war. According to SEM data, in 2024 the number of individuals with active S protection status rose to 68,070 compared to 66,083 the previous year. This figure can be used as a rough estimate of the number of Ukrainian refugees in the country, although the actual number of Ukrainians in Switzerland may differ due to people holding other types of residence permits.
The population of European Union countries is projected to decline by 53 million (11.7%) between 2025 and 2100, according to a forecast by the EU’s statistical office (Eurostat).
In 2025, the EU population was estimated at 451.8 million, resuming its growth trend in 2022 after a hiatus caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021. The population is projected to grow over the next three years, peaking at 453.3 million in 2029, after which it will gradually decline to 398.8 million by 2100.
By the start of the next century, the share of children and youth (ages 0–19) in the total population will decline to 17% from 20% last year, and the working-age population (ages 20–64) will fall to 50% from 58%. In contrast, the share of people aged 65–79 will rise to 17% from 16%, and those aged 80 and older to 16% from 6%, according to a Eurostat report.
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank released a video on how the world’s population has changed in recent years; a more detailed video analysis is available here – https://www.youtube.com/shorts/MnNXy72azrw
By 2100, the population will decline in 18 European Union countries, with the sharpest declines expected in Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, according to Eurostat data.
Under Eurostat’s baseline scenario, Latvia’s population will decrease by 33.9%, Lithuania’s by 33.4%, and Poland’s by 31.6% by the end of the century compared to 2025. A significant decline is also expected in Germany, Slovenia, Finland, and the Czech Republic, where the decline will be around 10%.
At the same time, population growth is projected only in nine EU countries by 2100. The population will increase by more than 25% only in Luxembourg and Malta—by 36.4% and 26%, respectively. Growth of 10–20% is expected in Sweden and Ireland.
Despite the overall population decline, Germany, according to Eurostat estimates, will remain the most populous EU country in 2100 with 74.7 million inhabitants. It will be followed by France with 67.2 million and Spain with 49.8 million people.
The statistical office notes that differences between countries will be significant both in terms of when peak population is reached and the scale of subsequent decline or growth.
The population of the European Union will continue to age throughout this century, with the median age of EU residents increasing by 6.6 years to reach 51.5 years by 2100, according to Eurostat data.
According to the study, the EU population will grow from 451.8 million in 2025 to a peak of 453.3 million in 2029, after which it will begin to gradually decline—to 445 million by 2050 and to 398.8 million by 2100. Thus, over the period 2025–2100, the total population decline will amount to 53 million people, or 11.7%.
Eurostat notes that the main consequence of current birth and death rates in the EU is the progressive aging of the population. At the same time, the number of people aged 65 and older in the EU is expected to more than double by the end of the century.
At the same time, the share of young people and the working-age population will decline. The share of people aged 20–64 is projected to decline from 61% of the EU population in 2025 to 49.7% in 2100, and their number will decrease by 63.6 million—from 262 million to 198.4 million.
At the same time, the share of the population aged 65 and older will rise from 12.4% at the start of 2025 to 33.6% in 2100, and the size of this age group will increase by 65.9 million people—to 133.8 million. In essence, this is the only major demographic group that will grow significantly in both relative and absolute terms.
Eurostat emphasizes that the aging process will affect all EU countries, although its pace will vary. The most significant increase in the median age of the population is expected in Malta, Cyprus, Ireland, Luxembourg, Lithuania, and Poland.
China’s population in 2025 decreased by 3.39 million people to 1 billion 404.89 million, according to a report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The population has declined for the fourth consecutive year.
This included 716.85 million men and 688.04 million women. These figures do not include the populations of Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan, as well as foreigners living in China.
Last year, 7.92 million children were born in the country, compared to 9.54 million a year earlier. This is the lowest level in the history of calculations (since 1949). The birth rate was 5.63 per 1,000 people, compared to 6.77 in 2024.
The sharp decline may be partly due to the increase in 2024, most of which occurred during the Year of the Dragon, which is considered auspicious for marriage and childbirth in Chinese culture, experts note.
The number of deaths in China in 2025 increased to 11.31 million from 10.93 million a year earlier, according to the NBS. The mortality rate rose to 8.04 per 1,000 people from 7.76.
People aged 16 to 59 accounted for 60.6% of the total population, while those aged 60 and older accounted for 23%.
Cities were home to 953.8 million people, which is 10.3 million more than at the end of 2024. The number of permanent residents in rural areas decreased by 13.69 million to 451.09 million people. As a result, the share of the urban population increased by 89 basis points to 67.89%.
The average number of years of schooling among the population aged 16 to 59 reached 11.3 years, which is 0.1 years more than in 2024.
At the end of 2025, China’s GDP increased by 5% to 140.2 trillion yuan. The growth rate coincided with the government’s target and the pace of economic growth in 2024.
If current demographic trends continue, the EU population will age and begin to decline after the middle of the decade, and in a scenario of zero net migration, the decline could be sharp, to approximately 294 million by 2100, according to calculations based on Eurostat projections (EUROPOP2023).
According to Eurostat’s baseline scenario, which assumes continued positive net migration, the EU population will grow from 446.7 million in 2022 to a peak of 453.3 million in 2026, after which it will gradually decline to 419.5 million by 2100 (down 6.1% from 2022).
At the same time, Eurostat also publishes alternative scenarios (sensitivity tests), including a zero net migration option. In this scenario, the total population of the EU by the end of the century is significantly lower – estimated at around 294 million people, which means a reduction of about one-third from mid-2020s levels. These differences are also highlighted in visualizations based on Eurostat data, as cited by regional media.
The key driver of population decline is negative natural growth. According to Eurostat estimates, between 2022 and 2100, approximately 291.3 million people could be born in the EU, with 416.6 million deaths (a net reduction due to natural movement of approximately 125.3 million), while cumulative net migration in the baseline scenario will partially offset the losses, adding about 98.1 million people.
At the country level, the differences are even more noticeable. In Eurostat’s baseline scenario, the largest population declines by 2100 are expected in Latvia and Lithuania (more than a third), as well as in Greece. At the same time, a number of countries, on the contrary, show population growth due to migration, including Luxembourg and Ireland.
It is noted separately that for Croatia, Eurostat’s baseline scenario predicts a decline in population from about 3.86 million in 2022 to about 2.82 million in 2100, while in scenarios with stricter migration assumptions, the final figures may be lower.
