Hong Kong remains the least affordable metropolis for homebuyers among the cities surveyed by UBS: a skilled service sector worker needs about 15 years’ worth of annual income to purchase a 60-square-meter apartment near the city center.
These figures are contained in the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2026, published on September 22.
More than ten years’ income is also required to purchase a similar apartment in Tokyo, Paris, London, and Seoul.
UBS also notes a high burden on buyers’ incomes in Singapore, Lisbon, Zurich, Geneva, São Paulo, Munich, Sydney, Milan, and New York.
At the other end of the ranking are Miami and Dubai. A 60-square-meter apartment there costs roughly five times the annual income of a skilled worker.
However, a relatively lower ratio of real estate prices to wages does not necessarily mean affordable housing. In the U.S. and Canada, affordability is further limited by high mortgage rates, bank requirements, and other costs of homeownership.
According to UBS’s calculations, compared to 2021, the average skilled worker in the cities surveyed can now afford about one-third less living space on their income.
Separately, UBS compared real estate prices to rent. The highest ratio was recorded in Zurich: the cost of an apartment is equivalent to approximately 46 years of rent. In Geneva, the ratio is about 40 years, while in Munich, Frankfurt, and Hong Kong, it exceeds 30 years.
A high ratio of purchase price to rent may indicate that investors are anticipating further significant price increases. If such expectations wane, the risk of property value losses increases, notes UBS.
Kyiv was not included in this study.
According to Experts.news, Lisbon was included in the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index for the first time and was immediately classified as a city at high risk of a housing price “bubble.”
The Portuguese capital’s index stood at 1.04 in 2026, according to a UBS study published on September 22. The bank classifies readings between 1.0 and 1.5 as “elevated risk.”
Over the past decade, real housing prices in Lisbon have risen by an average of nearly 7% annually—the highest rate among all 23 cities included in the study.
Since mid-2025 alone, housing prices, adjusted for inflation, have risen by an additional 10% or so.
UBS attributes the market’s long-term upswing, in particular, to policies aimed at attracting foreign investment and new residents.
However, analysts note that the factors that previously supported growth are gradually weakening. Lisbon has become one of Europe’s least affordable housing markets; rent growth has stalled, and demand is beginning to shift toward more affordable areas outside the city.
UBS cites Portugal’s shift toward a more selective immigration policy as an additional factor.
In terms of risk, Lisbon now ranks just behind Zurich, Tokyo, Miami, Dubai, Seoul, and Geneva. At the same time, it ranks ahead of Amsterdam, Madrid, Frankfurt, Munich, Paris, and London.
The study does not imply that UBS is forecasting a drop in prices in Lisbon. The index points to a buildup of imbalances between real estate prices, household incomes, rental rates, lending volumes, and other fundamental indicators.
Kyiv was not included in this study.
Toronto and Vancouver saw the most significant declines in housing prices among the 23 largest global markets analyzed by UBS in 2026.
Over the past four quarters, real housing prices in both Canadian cities have fallen by approximately 10%, according to the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2026.
The correction was particularly severe in Toronto. From 2014 to 2022, real prices there doubled due to rapid population growth, investment demand, and cheap financing.
After 2022, the situation changed. Due to rising interest rates, restrictions on foreign buyers, and an increase in supply, real prices are now nearly 30% below their peak, according to UBS.
In Vancouver, real prices have fallen by nearly 10% since mid-2025 and are about 20% below their 2022 peak. Home sales have dropped to their lowest level in about 25 years, while the number of properties on the market remains significantly above the long-term average.
As a result, UBS now classifies both cities as only moderate risk: Toronto’s index stands at 0.63, and Vancouver’s at 0.62. Just a few years ago, the Canadian markets were considered among the most overheated in the world.
A correction is also underway in Germany, though less sharply. Real prices in Frankfurt and Munich have fallen by nearly 4% over the past year. In Frankfurt, housing prices—adjusted for inflation—are already about 25% below their 2021 peak.
At the same time, UBS notes that a structural housing shortage persists in both Germany and many other major cities, which limits the potential for further price declines.
Kyiv was not included in this study.
Zurich and Tokyo were the only two of the world’s 23 largest cities that UBS classified in 2026 as having a high risk of a housing real estate bubble.
According to the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2026, published on September 22, Zurich’s index stood at 1.69 and Tokyo’s at 1.54. UBS considers an index above 1.5 to indicate high risk.
The “elevated risk” category included Miami with an index of 1.41, Dubai at 1.16, Seoul at 1.13, Geneva at 1.12, and Lisbon at 1.04.
Moderate risk was recorded in Amsterdam at 0.95, Madrid at 0.86, Los Angeles at 0.69, Sydney (0.68), Frankfurt (0.64), Toronto (0.63), Vancouver (0.62), Munich and Hong Kong (both 0.61), Singapore (0.54), and Milan (0.50).
UBS classified Paris (0.33), London (0.32), New York (0.28), San Francisco (-0.02), and São Paulo (-0.24) as low-risk markets.
In Zurich, real housing prices have risen by nearly 140% over the past 20 years, while rental rates have increased by approximately 40% and household incomes by 30%. The ratio of purchase price to rental cost has reached 46 years—the highest figure among all cities studied by UBS.
In Tokyo, inflation-adjusted housing prices are now about 50% higher than they were seven years ago. Over the past year, they have risen by another 6% or so.
UBS notes that, on average, real housing prices in all surveyed cities rose by only 0.5% over the past year; however, a significant gap has emerged between individual markets.
The bank emphasizes that a high index reading does not predict an inevitable crash. A correction could occur due to changes in interest rates, investor sentiment, or a significant increase in housing supply.
Turkey has identified another 1,070 people who, according to the investigation, obtained Turkish citizenship through fake real estate transactions. This marks the second major wave of investigations into schemes involving the granting of citizenship through residential property investments.
Turkish Justice Minister Akın Gürlek announced the new operation on September 21. The investigation is being conducted by the Istanbul Chief Prosecutor’s Office in collaboration with police units responsible for combating illegal migration.
Investigators examined real estate transactions conducted through the companies Gül İnşaat, Beyaz İnşaat, and LİV İnşaat. The audit covered sales to 734 foreign nationals, with 274 transactions deemed fictitious or suspicious. The total value of the transactions exceeded 3.5 billion Turkish lira, or approximately $72 million.
According to the Turkish Ministry of the Interior, among the 1,070 people who obtained citizenship under these agreements, 263 were direct investors, while another 807 were their family members. Of these, 1,015 received citizenship at the same time as the initial decision, and another 55 children received it later. In addition, 11 individuals were identified whose citizenship application processes were still ongoing.
As part of the operation, judicial measures were applied to 2,011 real estate properties, one hotel, 86 vehicles, two yachts, and 42 bank accounts. State administrators were appointed to 30 companies. Legal proceedings have been initiated against 88 suspects, and dozens of people have been detained.
This is already the second wave of the investigation. The first major operation took place on August 4, 2026. At that time, the investigation established that another 687 people had obtained Turkish citizenship through artificially inflated appraisal reports and fictitious real estate sales. The prosecutor’s office has initiated proceedings to revoke their citizenship. In that case, authorities estimated the amount of investments that did not actually reach Turkey at approximately 2.5 billion lira.
Thus, the two most recent investigations in Istanbul alone involve at least 1,757 cases of citizenship acquisition linked to suspicious real estate transactions, when combining the 687 individuals from the first wave and the 1,070 from the second. However, these two figures pertain to specific criminal investigations and do not cover all reviews of investment-based citizenship in the country.
At the same time, the Turkish Ministry of the Interior has, for the first time, released broader statistics on the review of citizenship obtained through investment programs. According to the ministry, as of September 21, citizenship decisions had been revoked for 5,391 individuals, including investors and their family members. Additionally, citizenship was revoked after it had been granted for 743 individuals, specifically for reasons related to public order and national security. In total, this amounts to 6,134 individuals.
As of February 11, 2026, citizenship grants were separately revoked for 1,393 individuals associated with 458 investors whose documents certifying that their investments met the established requirements were annulled. Citizenship was also revoked from seven other individuals on grounds of national security and public order.
Turkish authorities have not published a breakdown of the 1,070 individuals implicated in the current investigation by their country of origin. No similar official breakdown was published regarding the 687 individuals identified in August either. Therefore, reports claiming a predominance of Russians, Iranians, citizens of Middle Eastern countries, or other nationalities in these specific cases are not currently supported by official documents.
The scheme being investigated by law enforcement agencies was based on fictitious or inflated real estate values and the simulation of required financial transactions. In some cases, real estate with a significantly lower actual value was valued much higher in the documents in order to formally meet the requirements of the citizenship-by-investment program.
Turkey allows foreign investors to apply for citizenship, specifically through the purchase of real estate valued at no less than $400,000. The property must meet established requirements, and the investment and flow of funds are subject to verification by government agencies.
Germany remains a country with one of the lowest homeownership rates in Europe, according to the Pestel-Institut. In 2025, only 43.5% of the country’s private households lived in their own apartment or house. This is the lowest figure in approximately two decades.
As reported by rebuild.news, owning a home in Germany is now more of an exception than the standard model of living: the majority of households continue to rent real estate.
Germany’s official statistics confirm this characteristic of the market. According to the Federal Statistical Office Destatis and Eurostat, in 2025, 52.8% of Germany’s population lived in rented housing. This is the highest share of tenants among all European Union countries. For comparison, in France it stood at 38.6%, in Spain at 26.4%, in Poland at 12.8%, and in Slovakia at only 6.2%.
The figures from the Pestel-Institut and Destatis differ somewhat due to methodology. Pestel estimates the share of households living in owner-occupied housing, while Eurostat data cited by Destatis are calculated at the population level. The German statistical office itself also publishes a homeownership rate of 41.9% for another sample of households.
The Pestel-Institut study shows that the problem is particularly noticeable among young Germans. Almost three quarters of residents aged 25-45 live in rented housing. Researchers cite rising construction costs, mortgage interest rates and insufficient affordability of home purchases for middle-income families as the main reasons.
Since 2000, the cost of constructing apartment buildings in Germany, according to the study, has risen by approximately 160%, while consumer prices have increased significantly more slowly. Even families with two average incomes in many regions face difficulties purchasing their own homes.
At the same time, the situation is complicated by an insufficient supply of new apartments. In 2025, around 206.6 thousand housing units were completed in Germany – 18% fewer than a year earlier, and the lowest figure since 2012.
The high share of tenants has long been a characteristic of the German real estate market model. A developed long-term rental market, strong tenant protection and a historically relatively low proportion of homeowners distinguish Germany from most Central and Eastern European countries, where the overwhelming majority of the population owns its housing.
At the same time, rents under new contracts are also rising rapidly. According to the European Commission, new rental rates in Germany increased by approximately 50.8% in 2013-2024, and by 76.3% in the seven largest cities.
GERMANY, HOMEOGERMANY, HOMEOWNERSHIPWNERSHIP, HOUSING, REAL ESTATE, RENTAL
