According to Serbian Economist, the Albanian real estate market is showing the first signs of cooling after several years of sharp price increases. In June, the construction confidence index fell by 0.8 points, and developers revised their forecasts for future orders and prices downward, according to the Bank of Albania’s business and consumer confidence survey.
The key signal is the decline in expectations for new contracts. The balance indicator for construction orders fell to minus 26.2 points, meaning that the number of companies expecting a decline in orders significantly exceeds the share of optimists. At the same time, current construction activity remains roughly at the same level.
Prices have not yet entered a sustained decline, but developers’ expectations have weakened sharply. The price expectations index remains positive at 14 points—meaning that part of the market still expects growth—but in May the figure was 22 points, and in the spring it hovered around 30 points. This suggests not so much an immediate drop in prices as a rapid slowdown in the market.
The Bank of Albania also reports a slowdown in housing price growth. According to the Fisher Index, average prices of completed transactions rose by 11.7% compared to the previous half-year and by 28% year-over-year, but this is already lower than the rates seen in the first half of 2025, when annual growth reached 41.7%.
The cooling trend is particularly noticeable in Tirana. In the capital, the price index has remained unchanged over the past six months, and annual growth stood at only 4.4%, whereas in the first half of 2025, prices in Tirana rose by 32.6% year-over-year. According to market data, half of all transactions in the capital are now being concluded at a discount to the originally asking price.
At the same time, the coast is so far preventing the market from slowing down even further. Price growth in resort areas, including Vlora, Saranda, and Durres, is driven by foreign demand for seaside apartments and new tourist complexes. The Bank of Albania notes that coastal regions were the main contributors to the overall growth of the price index.
The paradox of the market is that demand is weakening, yet construction continues at a rapid pace. Albanian media, citing indirect tax data, report that permits for approximately 2 million square meters of construction may have been approved in the first five months of the year—a figure close to the record levels seen in 2024.
The practical conclusion for investors is simple: Albania no longer appears to be a market where prices are rising at the same rapid pace everywhere. Tirana has already approached its price ceiling, and further growth increasingly depends on project quality, location, and foreign demand. The coast remains stronger than the capital, but even there, the risk of overheating is increasing.
https://t.me/relocationrs/3184
According to Relocation, the Estonian government has approved a bill prohibiting citizens of Russia and Belarus from purchasing real estate if they do not have long-term resident status or the right of permanent residence in the country. If the bill is passed by parliament (the Riigikogu), the new rules will take effect on January 1, 2027.
The ban will apply throughout Estonia and will affect not only individuals but also companies from Russia and Belarus, as well as legal entities from other countries if their ultimate beneficial owner falls under the restrictions. The ban will cover apartments, land plots, building rights, and shares in real estate properties.
Tallinn cites national security concerns as the rationale for this initiative. The goal of the bill is to reduce the risks of real estate being used for intelligence activities, preparing sabotage operations, exerting influence, or establishing strongholds near strategic facilities. Interior Minister Igor Taro stated that the ban must not remain merely “on paper” and must not allow the restrictions to be circumvented through companies in Estonia or other EU countries.
However, the law will not be retroactive. Russians and Belarusians who already own real estate in Estonia will retain their property rights. Renting residential and commercial properties will also remain permitted. In certain cases, the government may issue a special permit for a purchase if the transaction does not conflict with the law’s objectives.
According to data from the Estonian Ministry of the Interior, as of January 9, 2026, there were 7,797 Russian citizens and 1,476 Belarusian citizens in the country with temporary residence permits—a total of 9,273 people. It is this group, if they do not have long-term resident status or permanent residence rights, that may be directly affected by the ban. At the same time, 70,237 Russian citizens and 1,190 Belarusian citizens held long-term residence permits and are to be exempt from the restrictions.
There is another aspect to consider—existing property owners. As of April 2025, there were 36,952 Russian citizens and 896 Belarusian citizens among real estate owners in Estonia. However, their current properties will not be seized, so the ban primarily concerns new transactions.
According to The Serbian Economist, foreign direct investment inflows into Albania rose by 3.4% in 2025 to 1.63 billion euros, up from 1.58 billion euros in 2024, the country’s central bank reported. Amid a decline in FDI in several countries in the region, Albania became one of the few markets in Southeast Europe where foreign investment continued to grow.
The Netherlands was the largest source of investment, contributing 201.9 million euros. Next were Italy with 186.9 million euros and Kosovo with 186.4 million euros. This geographic distribution differs from that of Montenegro, where the largest sources in 2025 were Serbia, Turkey, and Germany.
The main sector for foreign capital in Albania is real estate. In 2025, it attracted 560.9 million euros, or approximately one-third of total FDI. Insurance and financial services ranked second with 291.14 million euros, while wholesale and retail trade ranked third with 161.89 million euros.
The Albanian example demonstrates the same regional trend as Montenegro, but on a larger scale: foreign investors are actively investing in real estate, especially against the backdrop of growing interest in the coast, tourism, relocation, and infrastructure development. For Tirana and coastal cities, this means an increase in construction activity and prices, but at the same time, it exacerbates the issue of housing affordability for the local population.
Until recently, the Albanian market was viewed as peripheral, but now it is competing for capital with Montenegro, Croatia, Greece, and other Southern European destinations. At the same time, the volume of foreign direct investment in Albania already significantly exceeds that of Montenegro: 1.63 billion euros versus 531 million euros in net inflows in Montenegro.
Albania’s strengths lie in the size of its market and growing interest in real estate, tourism, financial services, and trade. Its weakness lies in the high concentration of investment in sectors that do not always ensure rapid productivity growth. As in Montenegro, the key question for long-term development is whether the country will be able to transform interest in real estate and services into more substantial greenfield projects, industry, logistics, and export capacity.
Albania is cementing its position as one of the most dynamic investment markets in the Balkans. But growth driven by real estate creates the same dilemma as in Montenegro: money flows in quickly, but the lasting impact on employment, exports, and productivity depends on whether more complex investment projects follow construction.
https://t.me/relocationrs/3162
Greece has more than 2.2 million vacant homes, accounting for 34.5% of the country’s total housing stock—one of the highest rates in Europe, according to a study by the Parliamentary Budget Office based on data from the 2021 ELSTAT census.
The study’s authors note that the problem in the Greek housing market is linked not only to a lack of new construction but also to the low utilization rate of existing housing stock. While the total number of residential properties increased by 3.5% between 2011 and 2021, the number of homes available for long-term rent decreased by 10.4%, and those listed for sale fell by 33.1%. The number of inactive vacant properties—those not offered for either rent or sale—rose to 1.81 million.
The category of vacant housing includes not only potential properties for purchase or rent, but also second homes, summer cottages, older housing stock, properties in rural areas and on islands, as well as real estate taken off the market due to legal, inheritance, or technical issues. Among the reasons why housing does not return to the market, the study cites inheritance disputes, unclear ownership status, legal complications, high renovation costs, low energy efficiency, and limited demand in certain regions.
For investors, this market structure creates opportunities primarily in the segments of older housing stock, redevelopment, and renovation. Properties that remain vacant due to owners’ reluctance to invest in modernization may enter the market at a discount; however, their investment appeal depends on the total cost after renovation and the potential market price upon sale or long-term lease.
Government support for renovation could be an additional factor. Greece is preparing a housing modernization program worth approximately 500 million euros, which is intended to help return some of the vacant properties to the housing market. According to Greek media reports, the program provides subsidies for repairs and energy efficiency, and eligibility checks are to be conducted via the gov.gr platform.
At the same time, investors should factor in the risk of price adjustments. According to the study’s authors, if the share of vacant and inactive housing returns to 2001 levels within approximately six years, real housing prices in Greece could fall by 15.5–24.6%. This does not imply an automatic collapse of the entire market; however, overvalued properties and locations with limited demand may prove to be the most vulnerable.
The Greek real estate market continues to appreciate for now, but the pace of growth is slowing. According to the Bank of Greece, apartment prices rose by 5.7% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026, following increases of 8.1% in 2025 and 9.1% in 2024. In Athens, growth in the first quarter was 5.2%, and in Thessaloniki, 6.4%.
Relying solely on short-term rentals and the Golden Visa program as the sole rationale for a transaction remains a risk. Research indicates that the impact of short-term rentals on the market as a whole may be limited; however, in central areas of Athens and Thessaloniki, as well as popular tourist destinations, they are increasing pressure on the long-term housing market. Therefore, a high-quality asset is not a property purchased solely for a residence permit or Airbnb purposes, but rather a property with a clear legal history, an estimated renovation cost, and sustained demand once it is brought to market.
According to Experts.news, the gap between what buyers most often want to purchase and what sellers are offering is widening in the Ukrainian housing market, as noted in the NBU’s June Financial Stability Report.
According to the regulator, the average size of a purchased apartment remains at 48 square meters, and that of a house at about 70 square meters. At the same time, the supply continues to be dominated by more spacious apartments: their average size exceeds 65 square meters.
The discrepancy is also evident in the age of the properties. Buyers more often choose older and, consequently, more affordable apartments. In Kyiv, the median age of purchased apartments has risen to 33 years, and in the western regions, to 39 years. In real estate listings, by contrast, nearly two-thirds of apartments are offered in buildings constructed less than 15 years ago.
The NBU notes that such discrepancies between supply and demand are holding back market activity. Buyers are more interested in smaller and cheaper housing, while sellers and developers more often offer newer and more spacious properties.
This trend is also significant for developers. In the western regions and the suburbs of Kyiv, budget-friendly projects are more common, while business-class projects predominate in the capital. However, demand during wartime indicates that the average buyer is more often looking for a compact and more affordable option.
In the second half of 2025, residential construction picked up: in most regions, the planned floor area of apartment buildings where construction had begun increased significantly. Across Ukraine as a whole, this figure rose by one and a half times over the year, and in Kyiv—by more than double.
However, the NBU notes that developers continue to finance the completion of existing complexes and new projects largely with their own funds. Banks are reluctant to lend to the construction sector due to high risks.
The main takeaway for the market: further recovery in sales will depend not only on household income but also on how closely supply aligns with actual demand—in terms of square footage, price, age of the property, and level of risk for the buyer.
According to Experts.new, following a period of relative calm, housing prices in Ukraine have begun to rise again, as stated in the National Bank of Ukraine’s June Financial Stability Report.
According to the NBU, housing prices have risen over the past six months. In the primary market, advertised prices increased roughly in proportion to the hryvnia’s devaluation, as real estate prices in Ukraine are traditionally quoted in U.S. dollars. In the secondary market, the increase was faster—5–10 percentage points higher than the devaluation.
An additional factor was the sharp rise in the cost of construction due to a surge in fuel prices. This intensified upward pressure on prices for new construction and limited developers’ ability to keep prices at previous levels.
At the same time, the NBU notes that housing prices remain historically low relative to household incomes. In the first quarter of 2026, the housing price-to-income ratio stood at 8.7x for the primary market and 8.6x for the secondary market.
The situation is different in the rental market. Due to winter attacks on energy infrastructure and the associated risks, the growth in rental rates has slowed. In Kyiv, the south, and the center of the country, rental costs have remained virtually unchanged since last fall. Price increases continued mainly in the western regions.
The price-to-rent ratio for secondary housing rose slightly in the first quarter to 10.4x, but still did not exceed the long-term average.
For buyers, this means that housing remains relatively affordable by historical standards, but uncertainty, security concerns, and the state of the energy infrastructure continue to limit demand. For investors, the situation is less clear-cut: rising purchase prices coupled with nearly stable rents reduce the short-term appeal of buying housing for rental purposes, especially in Kyiv and the central regions.
In the medium term, market dynamics will depend on the hryvnia exchange rate, the cost of construction, security, the state of the energy sector, and the resumption of mortgage lending.
HOUSING, NBU, PRICE, REAL ESTATE, rent
