The Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food estimates the harvest of the 2023 season at 79 million tons, which is at least 7 million tons more than last season, Minister of Agrarian Policy Mykola Solsky said on the air of the United News marathon.
“In May, at the beginning of the sowing season, we thought we would have about 63-64 million tons. Then we raised the forecast to 67-68 million, then more – 70 million. Last year we had a result of 7 million tons, then 75 million tons. In the last two weeks, we have been talking about the harvest, which will probably be around 79 million, which is at least 7 million more than last year,” he said.
Mr. Solsky reminded that farmers are no longer concerned about yields and gross output, but rather about the price at which they can sell their crops.
“It is very important that we have the opportunity to sell at a higher price. It is important how much we can export. After all, we need to be able to export 5 million tons of grain every month,” the minister explained, adding that logistics are very expensive and grain is not cheap.
Mr. Solsky emphasized that the demand for logistics is now significantly higher than the supply, and pointed out the importance of balancing these indicators.
“We are trying to do our best to bring this balance closer to what is needed (by the farmer – IF-U), so that the price (of grain – IF-U) will rise,” the minister emphasized.
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UZA) has updated its estimate of the potential harvest in 2023, increasing it by another 3.7m tons to 80.5m tons of grains and oilseeds, up from last year’s figures of 73.8m tons of grains and oilseeds, the association’s press service said.
The increase in this year’s crop forecast is due to favorable weather conditions and better crop yields than expected, although almost 2 million hectares were sown less than last year,” the UZA said.
According to the report, the wheat crop estimate for 2023 improved from 20.2 million tons to 22 million tons (2022 was 20.2 million tons and 2021 was a record 33 million tons). Potential wheat exports in MY 2023/2024 could be around 16 million tons, given the 4.4 million tons of carryover at the beginning of the season.
Barley crop estimate for 2023 is also raised from 5.2 million tons to 5.8 million tons (10.1 million tons in 2021 and 5.8 million tons in 2022), and potential 2023/2024 MY exports are expected to be 3 million tons. Corn crop expectations for the new season have improved slightly further, from 26.9 to 28 million tons (37.6 million tons in 2021 and 27.3 million tons in 2022), while exports could be around 22 million tons.
The sunflower harvest in 2023 is expected to be 13.9 million tons (16.9 million tons in 2021 and 11.1 million tons in 2022), with potential exports of 0.5 million tons. Sunflower processing for oil could reach 13.2 million tons.
UZA estimates the 2023 rapeseed harvest at 4.1 million tons, with exports in MY 2023/2024 expected at 4 million tons; soybeans at 4.8 million tons, with potential exports at 3.3 million tons.
According to the forecast, exports from Ukraine in the new 2023/2024 season could potentially reach almost 49 million tons. Last season, which ended June 30, 2023, UZA estimated exports reached 58 million tons.
The UZA noted that exporting such volumes in the new season will be possible if Ukraine is able to export through its Black Sea ports and if the logistics of alternative routes, including the Danube route, improve and become cheaper.
“The world has already seen that exporting grain through Ukrainian ports and ensuring the safety of navigation in the Black Sea is the only way to quickly and efficiently deliver Ukrainian grain to countries that are in dire need of it,” the industry association explained.
UZA noted that in the conditions of Russia’s blocking of navigation in the Black Sea and its attacks on port infrastructure it continues to work with the European Commission to compensate European carriers for transportation of Ukrainian grain from the border to European ports. This initiative was supported by the European association COCERAL, which has also approached the European Commission. This will allow Ukrainian producers to keep a part of the price, which they are forced to spend now on more expensive logistics, the association believes.
In addition, the problem of increasing the capacity of the Sulinsky Canal on the Danube to ensure its round-the-clock operation and increase the number of pilots is being solved. Work is underway together with the U.S. and the EU to create anchorages in Romanian territorial waters for reloading Ukrainian grain from barges to larger vessels such as Handysize and Panamax, which will make logistics across the Danube more efficient, the UZA said.
“Obstacles to grain exports from Ukraine negatively affect the availability of grain on the world market. According to the US intelligence in a report to the US Congress, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused deep disruptions in global food supplies, raising prices and increasing the risk of food insecurity in poor countries in the Middle East and North Africa,” the business association recalled.
UZA emphasized that rising prices also lead to higher food inflation in developed countries. “In case it is impossible to export products, Ukrainian farmers may reorient their production and give up growing grain, which will further aggravate the crisis in the global food market in the medium term,” the industry association summarized.
The current forecast of rapeseed harvest in Ukraine will be a record and will reach a maximum of 4.2 million tons due to expanded sown areas and high yields, the export potential of the market and its processed products will also reach a maximum, according to the analytical agency Ukragroconsult.
“The key to achieving such results is not only a large harvest and the launch of new processing facilities, but also the solution of logistical issues,” the report says.
According to analysts, in July, the export statistics showed a rather active start of the season, which is important in the absence of a grain corridor. Logistics has shifted to the Danube ports and land routes through the western borders.
Due to the constant attacks on the port infrastructure, the September contracts are focused on the road and rail logistics of rapeseed, experts said, citing information from market participants.
The analytical agency pointed to the change in the geography of exports of rapeseed and its products. Now the sales of Ukrainian rapeseed are focused not so much on the European Union, but on the UK, Switzerland and Bangladesh. The situation is similar with rapeseed oil, which is exported mainly to China and Malaysia instead of the EU market. At the same time, 95% of rapeseed meal goes to the EU market, while the remaining 5% goes to Vietnam.
As of August 22, 2023, Ukraine exported about 500 thsd tonnes of rapeseed and more than 58 thsd tonnes of rapeseed oil, analysts say, adding that current export figures allow us to consider optimistic scenarios.
Agroholding “Kernel”, one of the largest in Ukraine, with a record yield completes harvesting of early grain crops, under which 70 thousand hectares are allocated, the press service of the agroholding reported.
“This year’s winter wheat yield, depending on the region of the cluster location, was from 5.8 to 7.3 tons/ha. The weighted average yield is almost 70% higher than last year’s figure,” the agroholding said on Facebook.
According to “Kernel”, on the post-harvest areas are implemented programs of biologization of farming. To support biodiversity and improve soil fertility, cover crops have already been sown on 22 thousand hectares.
It is noted that agronomic divisions of the agroholding continue to test and research the effectiveness of using different mixtures of cover crops to assess their impact on physical and chemical characteristics, microbiological activity of soil and phytosanitary condition of fields.
Before the war, Kernel Agro Holding ranked first in the world in sunflower oil production (about 7% of world production) and exports (about 12%). It is one of the largest producers and sellers of bottled oil in Ukraine. In addition, it is engaged in growing agricultural products and their realization.
The largest co-owner of Kernel through Namsen Ltd. – is Ukrainian businessman Andriy Verevsky, who this year increased his stake from 41.3% to 74.05% as part of the buyout and delisting of the agroholding from the Warsaw Stock Exchange.
Kernel’s net profit for the first nine months of FY 2023 (July-2022-March 2023) rose 36% to $437 mln, while revenue fell 45% to $2.715 bln.
FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) in September raised the forecast for world wheat harvest in 2022 to 787.2 million tons, which is 1% more than was harvested in 2021, according to a summary of the organization.
“And, perhaps, (the indicator) will reach an even higher, record level. This is due to a higher than expected harvest in the European Union and the Russian Federation,” the document says.
In general, world grain production will decrease by 1.7% – to 2 billion 768 million tons, including feed grain – by 2.8%, to 1 billion 468 million tons, “due mainly to unfavorable agrotechnical conditions in the United States “explain FAO experts.
In addition, global rice production in 2022 is expected to reach 512.8 million tonnes, down 2.4% from the all-time high of 2021. The decline in the forecast compared to September is due to a prolonged summer drought, high temperatures in China and flooding in Pakistan, the document says.
As expected, grain consumption in the 2022/2023 agricultural year may decrease by 0.5% – to 2 billion 788 million tons, mainly due to a decrease in feed consumption.
Consumer prices in the euro area in June increased by 8.6% in annual terms, according to the final data of the Statistical Office of the European Union.
The indicator is the maximum since the beginning of the data calculation.
Thus, inflation in the region accelerated compared to 8.1% in May.
The final data coincided with the preliminary ones. Analysts polled by Trading Economics also did not expect a revision in the preliminary estimate.
The growth of consumer prices compared to the previous month amounted to 0.8%, as in May.
Inflation is over four times the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) target of 2%. The next meeting of the ECB will take place on Thursday, and it is likely that as a result of it, key interest rates will be raised immediately by 50 basis points, and not by the expected 25 bp.
According to Eurostat, energy resources jumped in price by 42% compared to June last year. Food, alcohol and tobacco increased in price by 3.7%, manufactured goods – by 4.3%, services – by 3.4%.
Consumer prices excluding food and energy rose 3.7% year-on-year last month from 3.8% in May.
In the European Union, inflation in June accelerated to 9.6% in annual terms from 8.8% in May.
The lowest inflation in the EU was recorded in Malta (6.1%), France (6.5%) and Finland (8.1%), the highest – in Estonia (22%), Lithuania (20.5%). ) and Latvia (19.2%).
