The majority of Ukrainian refugees and internally displaced persons surveyed (65% and 72% respectively) still express a desire to return home one day, but their share has decreased.
This is evidenced by the study of the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) “Life in Waiting: Intentions and Prospects of Refugees, Refugee-Repatriates and IDPs from Ukraine”, the results of which are published on its website.
According to UN data, the share of refugees who plan or hope to return to Ukraine in the future has decreased compared to last year (from 77% to 65%), but the share of those who are undecided about returning has increased (from 18% to 24%), as well as those who have no hope of returning (from 5% to 11%). A similar trend is observed among internally displaced persons.
According to the report on the results of the survey, the interviewed IDPs predominantly named the danger in Ukraine as the main factor hindering their return. Other problems were the lack of economic opportunities and housing. A significant part of the interviewed Ukrainian refugees (about 59%) indicated that they may be forced to return home if they continue to face problems in the host countries, mainly related to work opportunities and legal status.
It is also noted that more refugees are now making short-term visits to Ukraine – almost 50% compared to 39% last year, mainly to visit family members but also to check on their property.
The UN believes that such visits may eventually contribute to fully informed decisions on long-term return when conditions are conducive.
The UN recalls that there are now nearly 6.5 million refugees from Ukraine seeking asylum around the world and nearly 3.7 million people remain internally displaced.
UNHCR’s report is based on interviews conducted between January and February 2024 with nearly 4,000 refugee households in Europe, 4,800 internally displaced households in Ukraine and about 1,100 refugee households returning to Ukraine (total sample of over 9,900 households).
The situation with Ukrainian refugees is not improving, and a more active state policy is needed, says the Center for Economic Strategy (CES) in its report “Refugees from Ukraine: Intentions to Return, Impact on the Ukrainian Economy and Recommendations for State Policy.”
“According to different scenarios, from 1.3 million to 3.3 million Ukrainians may remain abroad. This is 0.4-0.6 million more than in the calculations for December 2022,” the document says.
According to CES estimates, as a result, the Ukrainian economy may lose 2.7% to 6.9% of GDP annually.
According to the researchers, the number of Ukrainians who have moved abroad is 5.6-6.7 million, which is 0.3-0.5 million, or 5% more than at the end of 2022.
“This was a result of the strikes on Ukraine’s power grid in the winter of 2022-23, the intensification of missile attacks on Ukrainian cities in May, and the explosion of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant in early June 2023,” the study says.
It is specified that 63% of refugees, according to a study by Info Sapiens commissioned by the CES, plan to return to Ukraine, but this share is falling.
“We are not sure that all of them will really return. First of all, the longer the war lasts, the more Ukrainians adapt to life abroad. In addition, some Ukrainians (6.8%) believe that the prospects for their children are better abroad,” the document says.
According to it, people with higher incomes before the war are more likely to return, while people with higher incomes now are less likely to return. In addition, students are one of the largest groups who would like to stay abroad.
It is noted that the majority of refugees are women (the largest share of women aged 35-49 is 18%) and children. Compared to 2022, the share of children has slightly decreased from 52% to 51%, with girls and boys being approximately equal among them.
Among adults, the proportion of men slightly increased from 17% in November 2022 to 22% in May 2023, in particular among people with temporary protection status in the EU – from 27% to 29%.
It is specified that the distribution of Ukrainian refugees by country of residence has also changed: the share of Poland has decreased from 42% to 29%, while the share of Germany has increased from 18% to 26%.
It is noted that a significant number of Ukrainian refugees lost most of their income after the start of the full-scale invasion, but as of May 2023, the economic situation of Ukrainian refugees abroad has improved: the share of those who have to save on food or have enough money for food has decreased from 40% to 35%.
The CES has identified four groups of refugees using cluster analysis. The first group (25% of all refugees) are classic refugees: mostly middle-aged women with children who have moved to Poland. They are not very adapted to life abroad, as 41% of Ukrainians in this group have never been abroad before. In addition, they mostly lived in settlements that were outside the combat zone but were subjected to rocket attacks (central and western Ukraine, as well as Odesa region). Accordingly, the main reason for going abroad was fear for their own safety.
The second group (29% of all refugees) are quasi-labor migrants who went abroad not only because of the war, but also for work. They are the most adapted to life abroad, as 25% of people in this group have already had experience working abroad. Also, for this group, external factors – both the hostilities and the policy of the Ukrainian state – will have the least impact on their decisions to return to Ukraine.
The third group (29% of all refugees) are professionals, people who mostly work in their specialty and are less willing to work outside of it. They often had their own business before the war. This group is more loyal to Ukraine and more often than others plans to return to Ukraine.
The fourth group (16% of all refugees) is people from the war zone, Ukrainians who suffered the most from the war. People from this segment are the most ready to take steps to adapt abroad. At the same time, they also express the greatest readiness to return to another region of Ukraine if it is impossible to return to their home region. Their decision to return will depend on the conditions created for this.
Romanian authorities are introducing new rules for housing and food subsidies for Ukrainian refugees starting from May: now the money will be received only by those who have found a job, the EFE news agency reported.
In addition, those citizens of Ukraine whose children go to school in Romania will be able to count on the subsidies.
Under the new rules, the state will no longer pay housing costs to landlords who house refugees, and tenants will receive subsidies directly. Refugee camps will receive subsidies from the state as before. Details of these rules will be made public at a later date, the agency notes.
EFE explains that Bucharest has taken such measures against the background of a significant labor shortage in Romania. More than 3.8 million Ukrainians arrived in the country since February 2022, but the vast majority went to other European countries. According to Romanian authorities, about 110,000 Ukrainian refugees currently remain in the country, but less than 10 percent of them have a work contract.
The number of refugees from Ukraine registered for temporary protection or similar national protection schemes in Europe reached 4 million 751.07 thousand as of November 22, 2022, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) said on its website.
In the month since Oct. 25, the increase was 324,32,000, up from 242,900 and 214,300 in the previous two months, respectively, and about 1.8 million in total since the end of May.
The largest increase over the past month showed Germany – about 206.5 thousand, Poland – about 38.9 thousand, France – about 14 thousand, Romania – 11.7 thousand and the Czech Republic – about 9.5 thousand.
According to data of the UNHCR, collected from the national governments, the most refugees with the status of temporary protection in Poland – 1 million 507.89 thousand, given that the country from Ukraine, according to the Polish border service, since the war arrived 8.008 million people, and in the opposite direction went to Ukraine 6.196 million.
They are followed by Germany and the Czech Republic, where the number of registered for temporary protection of refugees from Ukraine was 1 million 21.67 thousand and 462.41 thousand, respectively.
Italy still occupies the fourth place – 164,17 thousand (3,5 thousand more), and Spain closes the third place – 154,46 thousand (5,2 thousand more).
Great Britain follows after that – 146.2 thousand (7.8 thousand increase), and Bulgaria with amount of 146.03 thousand (3.3 thousand growth) – the only country where the number of registered with temporary protection is much more than the number of registered refugees from Ukraine – 51.86 thousand.
There are more than 100 thousand Ukrainians registered for temporary protection in two countries – France and Slovakia: 118.99 thousand (data as of October, 21) and 101.24 thousand (increase by 2,7 thousand).
From 50 thousand to 100 thousand refugees from Ukraine with temporary protection status are also in Romania – 87.89 thousand, Austria – 86.90 thousand (an increase of 2.1 thousand), the Netherlands – 79.25 thousand (data of September 30), Lithuania – 70.67 thousand (an increase of less than 2 thousand, as for other countries below, where the dynamics are not specified)
Switzerland is also among them – 69.61 thousand (an increase of 2.8 thousand), Ireland – 64.28 thousand (an increase of 3.8 thousand), Belgium – 59.53 thousand and Portugal – 52.88 thousand (data of October 3).
Sweden comes next with indicators of 25 to 50 thousand – 48.36 thousand, Finland – 43.81 thousand, Latvia – 42.82 thousand (an increase of 2.1 thousand),
Estonia – 38.73 thousand, Denmark – 34.95 thousand, Hungary – 32.27 thousand, Norway – 32.10 thousand are also in this category.
From 10 to 25 thousand refugees from Ukraine with temporary protection status in Greece – 20.0 thousand, Croatia – 19.13 thousand and Cyprus – 18.29 thousand.
In addition, the UN statistics on refugees from Ukraine received temporary protection status in Slovenia – 8.07 thousand, Montenegro – 6.96 thousand, Luxembourg – 6.76 thousand, Iceland – 1.77 thousand, Malta – 1.54 thousand, Serbia and Kosovo – 1.09 thousand and Liechtenstein – 0.36 thousand.
The UN also indicates countries with registered refugees from Ukraine, but no data on their status: Turkey (data of May 19) – 145 thousand, Moldova – 96.65 thousand, Georgia – 25.20 thousand, North Macedonia – 6.39 thousand, Azerbaijan – 3.94 thousand, Albania – 2.51 thousand, Armenia – 0.36 thousand and Bosnia and Herzegovina – 0.13 thousand.
The UN separately indicates Russia and Belarus, where the Ukrainian border was crossed by 2 million 852.4 thousand and 16.71 thousand people, respectively, but since October 3, the data for Russia are no longer updated, while for Belarus they are even older. According to the UN, the Russian Federation recorded all who crossed the border, while 16.43 thousand – in Belarus. There are no data on their status, as well as data on the Ukrainian border crossing in the opposite direction.
According to the UNHCR data as of November 22, a total of 15.592 million people left Ukraine since the beginning of the war (not counting the flow of people into the country), of which 7.584 million left for Poland, 2.852 million for Russia (data of October 3), 1.782 million for Hungary, 1.557 million for Romania, 953.9 thousand for Slovakia, 697.9 thousand for Moldova and 16.7 thousand for Belarus.
At the same time, according to the UN, from February 28 to November 22, 7.939 million people entered Ukraine (excluding Hungary, Russia and Belarus).
“Since the beginning of the Russian invasion, almost a third of Ukrainians have been forced to leave their homes. To date, this is one of the largest displacement crises in the world. In Ukraine, some 6.5 million people were internally displaced as of Oct. 27 as a result of the war,” indicates UNHCR, which increased its estimate of internally displaced people by 0.3 million.
UNHCR indicates that by mid-2021, there were only 53,47,000 Ukrainian refugees worldwide seeking appropriate status, including 36,49,000 in Europe.
The Ukrainian diaspora in the world as of mid-2020 was estimated by UNHCR at 6.1 million, including 5 million in Europe.
The buildings of the Truskavets sanatoriums “Rubin” and “Yantar” (Lviv region) will be modernized for housing for internally displaced persons (IDPs), the pro bono consultant of the Truskavets urban community on this project is the law firm Integrites, Interfax-Ukraine was informed in the press – service of the law firm.
“As part of the project, it is planned to modernize the buildings of the Rubin and Yantar sanatoriums with a total area of approximately 32 thousand square meters, located in the central part of the city of Truskavets, into houses with common premises (canteens, social centers). They were mothballed at the beginning of Russian aggression in 2014-2022,” Oleg Zagnitko, partner of Integrites, told the agency.
According to him, as a result, from 1.6 thousand to 3 thousand people. – both families and single persons will receive housing.
The project is proposed to be implemented on the basis of a public-private partnership (PPP) with the aim of integrating IDPs into the economy of the subregion. Integrites has been advising the city on the financial and management structure of PPPs since July 2022.
“We, as a company, represent a public partner – a city that solves its problems: it wants to revitalize the site in the center and integrate IDPs. and will remain as long as the property is empty,” Zagnitko explained.
Integrites is currently in the process of legal and financial structuring for the redevelopment and repurposing of several downtown buildings. This will make it possible to quickly revitalize the microdistrict in the resort subregion with the involvement of a number of resource sources.
The Truskavets project is part of the Rehousing Ukraine Initiative. The Affordable Housing Institute is a partnership between the Affordable Housing Institute, a non-profit organization registered in the United States, and Integrites, with the involvement of individual and institutional specialists where necessary. The IZH team is helping Ukraine recover from the Russian invasion and sees housing in general, and IDP shelters in particular, as the key to a fast, strong and modern recovery.
“We are honored to work with Truskavets Mayor Andriy Kulchinsky to realize his vision of converting a mothballed hotel into IDP housing. We see this not only as an urgent solution for Truskavets, but also as a prototype or pilot project to further scale similar conversions throughout Ukraine “, – commented the executive director of the Institute of Affordable Housing (USA), co-founder of IJU David Smith.
Earlier it was reported that in October 2022, the property of Truskavetskurort was seized as part of criminal proceedings regarding the alienation of property of real estate objects that were managed by the Federation of Trade Unions of Ukraine, PJSC Ukrprofzdravnitsa and PJSC Ukrproftur.
“As we see from the motivational part of the court’s ruling, the facilities may return to state ownership under the control of the Federation of Trade Unions. In this case, the implementation of PPP may be simplified, but holding a tender for the selection of a private partner will most likely require more time to prepare,” commented on the situation. Zagnitko.
He added that at this stage, the property will be administered by ARMA, but it will be a kind of PPP, since the management of real estate by the agency should be carried out “on the terms of efficiency, as well as maintaining (if possible, increasing) (…) the economic value” of real estate property, according to Art. 21(3) of the ARMA Act”.
The structure of PJSC “Truskavetskurort” includes sanatoriums “Spring”, “Crystal”, “Almaz”, “Yantar”, “Rubin”, “Birch” (all – Truskavets). The ultimate beneficiary is Pavel Yakubenko. The registered capital of PJSC is UAH 174.8 million.
According to the company’s data for 2019, its net profit amounted to UAH 91.9 million.
The number of refugees from Ukraine registered for temporary protection or similar national protection schemes in Europe reached 4 million 426.75 thousand as of October 25, 2022, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reported on its website.
For the month since September 30, the growth amounted to 242.9 thousand, while for the previous month – about 214.3 thousand, and in total since the end of May – about 1.5 million.
The largest increase over the past month was shown by Germany (data for October 8) – about 106 thousand, Poland – about 60 thousand, Czech Republic – about 14 thousand.
According to UNHCR data collected from national governments, the largest number of refugees with temporary protection status in Poland is 1 million 469.03 thousand, while 7.365 million people have arrived in the country from Ukraine, according to the Polish border service, since the beginning of the war, and in the opposite direction departed to Ukraine 5.547 million.
Following are Germany and the Czech Republic, where the number of refugees registered for temporary protection from Ukraine amounted to 815.13 thousand and 452.91 thousand, respectively.
The UN, referring to government data, indicates that in total in Germany, where Ukrainians were allowed to stay without registration until the end of August, 1 million 2.67 thousand refugees from Ukraine were recorded, which is only 5 thousand more than a month ago.
In the Czech Republic, the situation, according to UN information, is different: almost all arrivals applied for protection status – 452.91 thousand out of 453.10 thousand.
In the vast majority of other countries, the picture is similar to the Czech Republic: the statistics of registered refugees is completely or almost equal to the statistics of those who applied for protection status, which is probably due to the peculiarity of their registration and the completion of the 90-day period of stay under the visa-free regime. An exception, similar to Germany, is only Estonia – 37.66 thousand with the status of 60.98 thousand refugees registered in the country and partly Romania – 76.16 thousand out of 86.21 thousand.
Italy is still in fourth place in terms of the number of registered refugees from Ukraine – 160.67 thousand (an increase of 3 thousand), and Spain closes the top five – 149.21 thousand (an increase of 4.5 thousand).
Following are Bulgaria with an indicator of 142.81 thousand (an increase of 6.6 thousand), the only one in which the number of registered with the status of temporary protection is much higher than the number of registered refugees from Ukraine – 55.26 thousand, the UK – 138.4 thousand. (growth by 6.7 thousand) and France – 105 thousand (data as of September 26).
From 50 thousand to 100 thousand refugees from Ukraine with the status of temporary protection also in Slovakia – 98.57 thousand (an increase of 3.4 thousand), Austria – 84.76 thousand, the Netherlands – 79.25 thousand ( data as of September 30), Lithuania – 68.93 thousand, including Switzerland – 66.81 thousand (an increase of 5 thousand), Ireland – 60.51 thousand (an increase of 5.7 thousand), Belgium – 57.83 thousand and Portugal – 52.88 thousand (data as of October 3), as well as Romania mentioned above.
Following with indicators from 25 thousand to 50 thousand are Sweden – 47.38 thousand, Latvia – 40.67 thousand, Finland – 42.29 thousand. Denmark is also in this category – 34.41 thousand, Hungary – 31.29 thousand, Norway – 30.57 thousand, as well as Estonia, which was discussed above.
From 10 to 25 thousand refugees from Ukraine with the status of temporary protection in Greece – 20.0 thousand, Croatia – 18.93 thousand and Cyprus – 17.63 thousand.
In addition, the UN statistics on those who received the status of temporary protection include refugees of Ukraine in Slovenia – 7.90 thousand, Luxembourg – 6.76 thousand, Montenegro – 6.65 thousand, Iceland – 1.77 thousand, in Malta – 1.42 thousand, in Serbia and Kosovo – 1.04 thousand and Liechtenstein – 0.4 thousand.
The UN also indicated the countries in which refugees from Ukraine were recorded, but there is no data on their status: Turkey (data as of May 19) – 145 thousand, Moldova – 95.73 thousand, Georgia – 26.79 thousand, Northern Macedonia – 6.16 thousand, Azerbaijan – 3.93 thousand, Albania – 2.62 thousand, Armenia – 0.49 thousand and Bosnia and Herzegovina – 0.13 thousand.
Separately, the UN indicates Russia and Belarus, the Ukrainian border with which 2 million 852.4 thousand and 16.7 thousand people, respectively, crossed, however, after October 3, data for Russia ceased to be updated, while for Belarus they are even older. According to the UN, all those who crossed the border were recorded in the Russian Federation, while in Belarus – 15.93 thousand. There is no data on obtaining the status by them, as well as data on crossing the border of Ukraine in the opposite direction.
According to UNHCR data, as of October 25, a total of 14.592 million people have left Ukraine since the beginning of the war (excluding entry flow), of which 7.114 million went to Poland, 2.852 million to Russia (data as of October 3), and Hungary to 1.629 million people, Romania – 1.426 million people, Slovakia – 888.4 thousand people, Moldova – 670.2 thousand people, Belarus – 16.7 thousand people.
At the same time, according to the UN, from February 28 to October 25, 7.144 million people entered Ukraine (excluding data from Hungary, the Russian Federation and Belarus).
“Since the beginning of the Russian invasion, almost a third of Ukrainians have been forced to leave their homes. This is one of the largest displacement crises in the world today. In Ukraine, about 6.2 million people remain displaced by war,” says UNHCR, which downgraded its estimate of internally displaced people in October persons per 0.8 million people.
UNHCR indicates that by mid-2021 there were only 53.47 thousand Ukrainian refugees in the world who applied for the appropriate status, of which 36.49 thousand were in Europe.
As of mid-2020, the UNHCR estimated the Ukrainian diaspora in the world at 6.1 million, including 5 million in Europe.
