The analytical agency UkrAgroConsult predicts a wheat harvest of 25.9 million tonnes for 2020 with exports of 17.5 million tonnes and a corn harvest of 36 million tonnes with exports of 29 million tonnes.
“The assessment of export potential for wheat is quite consolidated – 17.5 million tonnes, this figure is fixed in a memorandum, an appendix to which has been recently signed. In any case, exports will be about 3 million tonnes lower than last year,” the UkrAgroConsult export for the grain market, Yelyzaveta Malyshko, said during the Black Sea Grain & Oil Trade 2020 international conference in Kyiv.
According to her, the start of the wheat export season was impressive, for example, from July 1 to August 28, some 4.16 million tonnes of wheat were exported, which is the highest figure for this period in the previous years.
“Now active export contributes to the fact that domestic prices for wheat in September are about $ 30 higher than last year and the demand remains. Expectations in this regard are quite optimistic. Forwards for December are now showing $ 225, but we cannot exclude autumn price deflection after the arrival of Canadian and then Australian wheat crop,” the expert said.
UkrAgroConsult’s estimate of the corn harvest for this year is 36 million tonnes.
The expert noted price expectations for corn are optimistic, however, a decrease in prices during the period of active harvesting cannot be ruled out.
Ukraine as of July 25 had threshed 20 million tonnes of early grain and leguminous crops from 6.3 million hectares (65% of the forecast for these crops) with the yield being 31.9 centners per ha.
According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, farmers harvested 15 million tonnes of winter wheat from 4.4 million hectares (70% of the forecast) with the yield of 34.2 centners/ha, 37,000 tonnes of spring wheat from 16,000 hectares (9%) with a yield of 23 centners/ha, 2.9 million tonnes of winter barley from 816,000 hectares (99%) with the yield being 35.1 centners per ha, 1.3 million tonnes of spring barley from 628,000 hectares (41%) with a yield of 19.9 centners/ha, and 541,000 tonnes of peas from 319,000 hectares (75%) with a yield of 17 centners/ha.
The country also harvested 67,000 tonnes of rye from 27,500 hectares (19%) with a yield of 24.5 centners/ha and 16,000 tonnes of oats from 9,300 hectares (5%) with a yield of 17.5 centners/ha.
In addition, farmers threshed 2.3 million tonnes of winter rapeseeds from 902,000 hectares (92%) with a yield of 25.8 centners per ha and 11,000 tonnes of spring rapeseeds from 7,500 hectares (14%) with the yield standing at 15 centners/ha.