The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reduced its forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY) from 14.5 million tonnes to 14 million tonnes (-0.5 million tonnes or 3.4%) given the increase in domestic consumption from 7.6 million tonnes to 8.1 million tonnes (+0.5 million tonnes or 6.6%), the forecast for corn remained unchanged.
The global forecast for wheat for 2025/26 calls for increased supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. (…) Global consumption increased by 0.9 million tonnes to 823.9 million tonnes, mainly due to increased use in Russia, Ukraine, and Morocco, according to the USDA’s December report.
The US Department of Agriculture has not changed its estimate of Ukraine’s wheat harvest to 23 million tonnes, with exports at 14 million tonnes (-0.5 million tonnes) and ending stocks at 1.93 million tonnes. At the same time, it is noted that domestic consumption will increase to 8.1 million tonnes (+0.5 million tonnes or 6.6%).
USDA analysts left unchanged their forecast for corn harvest in Ukraine in 2025/26 MY — 29 million tonnes, exports — 23 million tonnes, ending stocks — 0.85 million tonnes.
The USDA has increased its forecast for global wheat production in 2025/26 MY to 842.17 million tonnes (+4.36 million tonnes), global exports to 219.76 million tonnes (+1.05 million tonnes), and ending stocks — 278.25 million tonnes (+3.38 million tonnes).
The USDA has raised its forecast for global corn production in 2025/26 MY to 1,296.01 million tonnes (+13 million tonnes), exports to 205.1 million tonnes (+0.01 million tonnes), and ending stocks to 290.91 million tonnes (+11.76 million tonnes).
