According to the analytics department of the Fixygen.ua project, the passage of a U.S. law on the structure of the digital asset market, the finalization of stablecoin regulations, and the further expansion of banks’ access to cryptocurrency transactions could be the key government decisions capable of positively impacting the cryptocurrency market in the second half of 2026.
Analysts at JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Bitwise cite the passage of the U.S. Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act as the most significant potential development. The bill aims to delineate the authority of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as well as establish federal regulations for cryptocurrency exchanges and token issuers.
JPMorgan analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, previously noted that the passage of legislation regarding the structure of the crypto market could serve as a positive catalyst for digital assets in the second half of 2026. The law has the potential to reduce legal risks and facilitate participation in the sector by banks, asset management firms, and other institutional investors.
Citi strategist Alex Saunders also believes that regulatory changes will stimulate the further adoption of cryptocurrencies and an influx of capital. However, the bank warned that the window for passing the law in 2026 is narrowing. The delay in considering the CLARITY Act has already become one of the reasons for Citi’s downward revision of its forecasts for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hogan expects a sharp improvement in market sentiment if a version of the CLARITY Act acceptable to the cryptocurrency industry is passed. In his view, the lack of a final decision maintains uncertainty and is causing institutional investors to postpone investments.
As of the end of July, the bill had made progress in the Senate, but it requires the support of some Democrats for final passage. Controversial issues include rewards for stablecoin holders, anti-money laundering requirements, regulation of decentralized platforms, and restrictions on high-ranking politicians’ involvement in cryptocurrency projects.
A second potential catalyst could be the publication of the final implementing rules for the GENIUS Act, which was signed into law in the U.S. in July 2025.
The law established a federal regulatory framework for payment stablecoins, but a number of provisions require additional regulations from the Department of the Treasury, banking regulators, and financial monitoring agencies.
On April 1, 2026, the U.S. Treasury Department presented the first draft of regulations defining the conditions under which state-level regulation of issuers can be considered comparable to the federal system. A week later, FinCEN and OFAC proposed requirements regarding anti-money laundering and sanctions compliance.
The publication of the final rules could allow banks and payment companies to launch their own stablecoins more quickly, as well as increase demand for blockchain infrastructure, tokenized assets, and digital asset custody services.
Bitwise notes that the volume of tokenized real-world assets has grown by 50.3% since the beginning of 2026, reaching $32.89 billion. In terms of transaction volume, stablecoin transactions are already 2.3 times higher than those of the Visa payment system.
Ethereum, Solana, and other networks actively used for issuing digital dollars, tokenizing assets, and international settlements stand to benefit most from the completion of stablecoin regulation.
A third potential positive development will be further clarification of the legal status of certain cryptoassets and staking transactions.
On March 17, 2026, the SEC and CFTC issued a joint interpretation stating that most cryptoassets are not securities in and of themselves. The document also clarifies the application of the law to mining, staking, airdrops, and inverse tokens.
The next positive step for the market could be formal rules that allow cryptocurrency companies to determine in advance whether a specific token falls under the jurisdiction of the SEC or the CFTC.
Another catalyst could be the further approval of exchange-traded funds that utilize staking. Such products allow investors not only to gain price exposure to cryptocurrencies but also to participate in the revenue generated from transaction validation.
By 2026, exchange-traded products featuring staking of Solana, Avalanche, Ethereum, and other tokens had already appeared in the U.S. The expansion of such authorizations could increase institutional demand, primarily for cryptocurrencies that operate on a Proof-of-Stake mechanism.
A fourth potentially positive development could be the CFTC’s authorization for regulated U.S. platforms to organize spot trading in digital assets.
The CFTC’s Crypto Sprint program is scheduled to run through August 2026 and aims to develop regulated spot trading of crypto assets, enable the use of stablecoins and tokenized assets as collateral, and adapt infrastructure to support 24/7 trading and blockchain-based settlements.
The emergence of regulated spot trading platforms could attract brokers, banks, and professional managers to the market, who are currently constrained by internal rules or counterparty requirements.
This could also reduce U.S. investors’ dependence on foreign trading platforms and increase the liquidity of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other assets that the CFTC officially classifies as digital commodities.
Analysts consider the further lifting of regulatory restrictions on banks to be a fifth potential catalyst.
The U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has already confirmed that national banks may provide crypto-asset custody services, buy and sell them on behalf of clients, and engage third-party sub-custodians.
The next step could be broader harmonization of regulations by the Federal Reserve System, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and state banking regulators.
The issuance of new banking licenses to companies working with digital assets, the launch of cryptocurrency custody services by major banks, and the provision of access to trading through traditional banking apps would send a positive signal to the market.
Such decisions could reduce operational risks for institutional investors and create additional channels for capital inflows into cryptocurrency funds.
Further support for the market could come from the convergence of digital asset regulations between the U.S., the U.K., and the European Union.
On July 14, 2026, the U.S. Department of the Treasury and the UK Treasury presented recommendations on the development of cross-border transactions involving digital assets. The parties separately supported the expansion of international circulation of private stablecoins and the reduction of regulatory barriers between the two financial markets.
A positive development could be the mutual recognition of licenses or reserve requirements for stablecoins, which would facilitate the use of digital dollars and pounds in international settlements.
In the European Union, the MiCA regulation has already established a unified licensing system for cryptocurrency companies. Granting licenses to large international banks and exchanges could boost confidence among institutional clients and accelerate the development of a legal market for digital assets.
However, the most important regulatory factor for the market in the coming months remains the fate of the CLARITY Act. Its passage could reduce the likelihood of legal disputes with regulators and open the U.S. market to a greater number of institutional products.
However, a positive outcome is not guaranteed. Excessively strict requirements for DeFi, stablecoins, or software developers could limit the growth of certain market segments.
Furthermore, even favorable legislation cannot eliminate the impact of interest rates, geopolitics, liquidity, and investor activity. Bitwise notes that in the second quarter of 2026, the index of the largest crypto assets fell by 15.4%, and U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a record quarterly outflow of funds.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at around $63,400, and Ethereum at around $1,625. Thus, the most positive scenario for the crypto market would be the simultaneous passage of the CLARITY Act, the finalization of regulations for stablecoins, and the expansion of banks’ access to digital assets. These decisions have the potential to reduce regulatory uncertainty, but their impact will depend on the final wording of the regulations and the state of global financial markets.
