Ukrainian gas station chains are not yet fully passing on the increased costs resulting from Russian attacks to consumers, instead offsetting them by reducing their own profitability; however, the ability to keep prices in check in this way is limited, according to Serhiy Kuyun, director of the A-95 Consulting Group.
As the expert reported on his Facebook page, “A-95” specialists compared retail prices for gasoline and diesel fuel with their customs value over the past three years.
The resulting difference includes gas stations’ logistics and operating costs, as well as operators’ profits. According to “A-95” calculations, in 2026 this markup did not increase but actually decreased slightly compared to the previous year, despite a significant rise in fuel companies’ expenses.
Among the additional costs, Kuyun cites the restoration of damaged gas stations and the strengthening of their security. According to him, installing an anti-drone protective structure over a single gas station can cost about €100,000, while building a temporary shelter can cost 1–1.2 million UAH.
At the same time, personnel costs are rising. According to data from the State Tax Service cited by the expert, the official salaries of employees at the 40 largest gas station chains have increased by 20% over the past year. Additional expenses arise from the need to organize work schedules and staff rotations in frontline regions.
“In other words, the stability of the markup was achieved by reducing profits,” Kuyun noted.
According to his assessment, the most difficult economic situation has developed in the left-bank region of Ukraine. The cost of delivering fuel there is higher than in the western and southern border regions, while there is virtually no significant regional variation in retail prices.
National chains can partially offset the low profitability of such gas stations through more efficient stations in other regions. For small local operators in the east of the country, this option is often unavailable.
According to Kuyun, some local gas stations are currently operating with zero or negative profitability. The expert attributes this to why some gas stations damaged by Russian drones are not being rebuilt: investments in repairs may not pay off given the current economic situation.
A further negative factor is the decline in fuel sales. Kuyun attributes this both to the impact of attacks on Ukrainian industry and the resulting drop in consumption, as well as to the high cost of petroleum products on the global market.
According to the expert, for now, fuel retailers are effectively absorbing part of the rising costs using their own revenues, rather than passing them on entirely to the final price of gasoline and diesel fuel.
However, this situation cannot last indefinitely.
“It’s hard to say how much longer fuel retailers will be able to absorb these price increases using their own revenues. I think it won’t be long,” Kuyun noted.
Thus, future price trends at Ukrainian gas stations will depend not only on global oil and petroleum product prices and the exchange rate, but also on operators’ ability to offset rising costs related to logistics, security, infrastructure restoration, and personnel.
Source: Serhiy Kuyun — Facebook post.
