The Ukrainian economy in 2026 maintains relative macrofinancial stability thanks to international support and the adaptation of businesses to wartime conditions. However, low GDP growth rates, an increasing foreign trade deficit and a shortage of labor resources remain the main obstacles to its recovery.
This is stated in an analytical review of the main economic indicators of Ukraine and the world, presented on November 6, 2026, by Maksym Urakin, Director of Development and Marketing at the Interfax-Ukraine news agency, PhD in Economics and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.
The study mainly covers indicators for January-July 2026 and the second quarter, as well as certain statistical revisions published after the end of the reporting period.
According to the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s real GDP increased by only 0.4% in the second quarter of 2026 compared with the same period of the previous year. At the same time, compared with the first quarter, taking seasonal factors into account, the economy grew by 0.3%.
Thus, after contracting by 0.6% in the first quarter, the Ukrainian economy returned to positive dynamics, but the pace of recovery remains insufficient for the rapid restoration of production potential.
In July, the National Bank of Ukraine raised its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 1.8%, while for 2027-2028 it expected growth to accelerate to approximately 2.8-3% annually.
Foreign trade remains one of the main challenges. According to the State Customs Service, Ukraine’s trade turnover in January-July 2026 amounted to $82.2 billion, including exports of $24.1 billion and imports of $58.1 billion. The merchandise trade deficit reached approximately $34 billion.
China remained the largest supplier of goods to Ukraine, with products worth $16.8 billion imported from the country. Poland ranked next with $5.5 billion, followed by Germany with $3.8 billion.
The main markets for Ukrainian products were Poland, Turkey and Germany. At the same time, food products accounted for approximately 58.5% of Ukraine’s total merchandise exports.
According to Urakin, to reduce the structural trade deficit, Ukraine needs to increase the production of high-value-added goods, develop the processing industry and create new export capacities.
International reserves remain an important factor in macrofinancial stability. As of August 1, 2026, their volume amounted to $51.2 billion, remaining virtually unchanged in July.
At the same time, the National Bank sold approximately $4.76 billion on the foreign exchange market during the month, indicating the economy’s significant need for foreign currency.
The inflation situation also remains difficult. In July, consumer prices increased by 7.7% year-on-year, compared with 7.2% in June. Core inflation stood at 8.1%, while services inflation reached 13.7%.
In the budgetary sphere, defense financing remained the main priority. Over seven months, UAH 1.63 trillion, or 63.2% of expenditures from the general fund of the state budget, was allocated to security and defense.
At the same time, international grant assistance credited to the general fund amounted to UAH 569.6 billion.
Ukraine’s state and state-guaranteed debt reached UAH 9.57 trillion, or approximately $214.2 billion, at the end of July. At the same time, the predominance of concessional international financing helps contain the cost of servicing this debt.
Despite the difficult economic situation, certain sectors demonstrated positive dynamics. In particular, agricultural production in January-July increased by 17.2% compared with the same period in 2025.
The average nominal wage in July amounted to UAH 32,243, which was 21.7% higher than a year earlier.
At the same time, employers continue to face a shortage of qualified workers, primarily in industry, construction and logistics.
The review also analyzes the economic situation in the United States, the European Union, China, India, the United Kingdom, Turkey and Brazil.
According to the International Monetary Fund’s July forecast, the global economy was expected to grow by 3% in 2026 and by 3.4% in 2027.
In the second quarter of 2026, the eurozone economy, according to revised data, increased by 0.6% compared with the previous quarter, while the UK’s GDP grew by 0.4%.
China recorded economic growth of 4.7% in the first half of the year, while India’s GDP increased by 7.8% year-on-year in April-June.
At the same time, annual inflation in Turkey remained at 31.75% in July, significantly exceeding the figures recorded in most other major economies.
According to the founder of Experts Club, global trends confirm the growing importance of technological development, industrial modernization and investment in production.
For Ukraine, the localization of production, development of the defense-industrial complex, agricultural processing, mechanical engineering, energy autonomy and digital technologies remain particularly important.
Urakin believes that Ukraine’s future economic policy should be aimed not only at covering current budgetary needs but also at creating new productive assets capable of ensuring long-term growth.
In his assessment, it is precisely the transition from dependence on external financing to the development of domestic production and exports of high-value-added products that should become the foundation for the sustainable postwar recovery of the Ukrainian economy.
Maksym Urakin’s full analytical review, “Main Economic Indicators of Ukraine and the World as of Late July – Early August,” was published on November 6, 2026, on the website of the Interfax-Ukraine news agency.
Source: Interfax-Ukraine, analytical review dated November 6, 2026.
