In its November forecast, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reduced its estimate for Ukrainian corn exports in the 2026/27 marketing year (MY) by 2 million metric tons compared to October—to 20 million metric tons—while maintaining its production forecast at 31.8 million metric tons.
The relevant data are presented in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released on November 10, 2026.
According to the report, the reduction in projected exports is accompanied by a significant increase in expected corn stocks in Ukraine.
Specifically, the USDA raised its estimate of ending stocks for the 2026/27 marketing year from 5.53 million to 7.53 million metric tons, or by 36.2%.
For comparison, corn stocks at the start of the current marketing year stood at 2.92 million metric tons. Thus, according to the USDA’s forecast, they could increase approximately 2.6-fold by the end of the season.
U.S. analysts estimate domestic consumption of Ukrainian corn at 7.2 million metric tons, including 5.5 million metric tons for feed purposes. Both figures remained unchanged compared to the October forecast.
The USDA cites restrictions on the supply of Ukrainian agricultural products to foreign markets as the main reason for the downward revision of its export estimate.
The report notes that the war in the Black Sea region and the associated logistical difficulties continue to affect international grain trade.
Globally, the USDA lowered its forecast for corn trade in the 2026/27 marketing year from 210.72 million to 209.38 million metric tons.
In addition to Ukraine, export forecasts have been reduced for the United States and India. At the same time, an increase in shipments is expected from Argentina, for which the export estimate has been raised from 38 million to 40 million metric tons.
The United States remains the world’s largest corn exporter with a projected volume of 83.19 million metric tons, while Brazil is expected to export 43 million metric tons.
With a forecast of 20 million metric tons, Ukraine remains one of the world’s leading suppliers of this crop.
The USDA estimates global corn production in the 2026/27 marketing year at approximately 1.292 billion metric tons, with ending stocks at 281.94 million metric tons.
The growth in corn stocks in Ukraine is occurring against the backdrop of a stable harvest forecast; however, actual export volumes will depend on the operation of seaports, rail and road logistics, as well as demand in international markets.
For corn, the marketing year in Ukraine runs from October to September of the following year.
Source: USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, November 10, 2026, p. 23 (PDF).
