This article presents key macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine and the global economy as of February 1, 2025. The analysis is based on current data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the UN. Marketing and Development Director at Interfax-Ukraine, Maksim Urakhin, PhD in Economics and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, presented an overview of current macroeconomic trends.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
In 2024, Ukraine’s economy showed signs of recovery despite the ongoing war and unstable geopolitical situation. According to updated data from the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s real GDP grew by 3.3% in 2024, while nominal GDP amounted to approximately UAH 8.3 trillion. The deflator index was 11.6%.
“GDP growth demonstrates the resilience of the Ukrainian economy. Sectors focused on exports, domestic consumption, and infrastructure restoration have become the drivers of growth,” comments Maxim Urakin.
As of January 2025, annual inflation accelerated to 12.9%. Consumer prices rose by 1.2% in January compared to December, reflecting seasonal increases and currency stability.
According to the State Statistics Service, at the end of 2024, exports of goods amounted to $43.8 billion (+13.4%), imports to $67.4 billion (+5.7%), and the negative foreign trade balance to $23.6 billion.
“Despite high imports, primarily of energy and equipment, export activity is growing. Ukraine is strengthening its position in the agricultural and metallurgical markets,” says Maksim Urakyn.
As of February 1, 2025, according to the Ministry of Finance, Ukraine’s state and state-guaranteed debt amounted to $146.7 billion, including $100.1 billion in external debt. According to the National Bank of Ukraine, international reserves reached $45.3 billion, increasing by $400 million in January thanks to inflows from the EU and the IMF.
“The record level of reserves strengthens the stability of the hryvnia and allows the NBU to control currency fluctuations,” the economist emphasizes.
Global economy
According to the IMF’s January update, global economic growth in 2024 was 3.1%, with a forecast of 3.2% for 2025. Developing countries remain the main drivers, despite global instability.
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US economy grew by 2.5% in 2024. In January 2025, inflation stood at 3.1% year-on-year, with the Fed keeping its rate at 5.25-5.5%.
According to revised Eurostat data, the eurozone’s GDP grew by 0.4% in 2024, while inflation stood at 2.8% in January 2025. Germany, the EU’s largest economy, contracted by 0.1%, while Spain and Portugal made positive contributions to overall growth.
“Geopolitics, high borrowing costs, and weak demand in the G7 countries continue to hold back the recovery. Strong consumer demand is supporting the US economy. However, expensive credit is holding back investment activity, especially in real estate. The Chinese economy needs new stimulus, including tax reforms and support for small businesses, to offset the decline in investment in the construction sector,” Urakin explains.
The Indian economy continues to grow steadily: 8% in 2024, according to preliminary data from the Indian Ministry of Finance. The country is strengthening its position in global supply chains and increasing domestic production.
According to official statistics, China’s GDP grew by 5% in 2024. However, growth in the real estate sector remains weak and domestic demand is limited, which is holding back expansion potential.
Conclusion
The macroeconomic picture at the beginning of 2025 reflects a difficult but stable situation both in Ukraine and globally. Domestic GDP growth, slowing inflation, and strengthening reserves are positive signals for Ukraine. The global economy, in turn, is showing cautious growth amid continuing challenges.
“The key priorities for Ukraine remain ensuring macroeconomic stability, growing high value-added exports, accelerating digital transformation, and implementing structural reforms. This will enable the country to strengthen its position in the international economy as early as 2025,” concludes Maksim Urakin.
Head of the Economic Monitoring project, Candidate of Economic Sciences Maksim Urakin.
A more detailed analysis of Ukraine’s economic indicators is available in the monthly information and analytical products of the Interfax-Ukraine agency, Economic Monitoring.
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1072123.html
ECONOMY, EXPERTS CLUB, GDP, GEOPOLITICS, MACROECONOMICS, URAKIN
