Representatives of the European Union met with representatives of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine in Kyiv to discuss the application for EU accession, Head of the EU Delegation to Ukraine Matti Maasikas said.
“The best possible start to my first official working day back in Kyiv. Meeting with Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olha Stefanishyna, representatives of the European Commission for Neighborhood and Enlargement, the EU Delegation to Ukraine and the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine on the questionnaire, the basis for the EU Commission forthcoming opinion on Ukraine’s EU membership application. Working 24/7 as tasked by Ursula von der Leyen,” he said on Twitter.
As reported, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen handed over to President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky a questionnaire for joining the EU on April 9.
About 300 thousand square meters. m of the territory of Ukraine needs humanitarian demining due to the large amount of ammunition left by the occupiers, sowing work on a large area of Ukrainian fields cannot begin due to the threat of explosive objects there, the State Emergency Service reports.
“To date, we have conducted an indicative analysis of the territories where it is necessary to carry out a set of measures for humanitarian demining … According to our preliminary estimates, this is about 300 thousand square kilometers, almost half of the territory of our country,” the head of the Office of the organization of pyrotechnic works and humanitarian demining of the State Emergency Service Oleg Bondar.
He noted that there are pyrotechnic divisions in every region of Ukraine, in total, about 550 pyrotechnicians work in the State Emergency Service.
“An average of 2,000 to 6,000 explosive items are seized and rendered harmless every day,” a spokesman for the State Emergency Service said.
According to Bondar, at present the main demining efforts are concentrated in the Irpen-Buchansky, Chernihiv-Brovary, Nezhensky and Trostyanets directions.
The representative of the State Emergency Service emphasized that, despite the ongoing shelling, pyrotechnicians work daily in the Kharkiv and Nikolaev regions.
Answering a question about how soon residents of the Kiev region can return home after clearing the territories, the head of the department said: “We worked out Irpen. But there are households where there were no owners. We, as a rescue service, have no right to enter private territory. Therefore, we we leave a notice: if a person returns home, then they call us and inspect, after which we give permission to be in the house.
At the same time, Bondar added: “But the main decision on the possibility of returning people is the function of local authorities.”
The representative of the State Emergency Service also noted that Ukrainian explosives technicians are highly qualified and work with modern Iskander-type ammunition, ammunition used in aviation – Surface-to-air and Air-to-air missiles.
“There is the use of multiple launch rocket systems with cluster elements … from the Iskander system, when, when triggered, they are scattered over large areas and the elements are in combat readiness. Our specialists destroy such ammunition directly at the place of their detection, that is, these are the ammunition that cannot be moved, transported, neutralized in any way other than a physical explosion,” the representative of the State Emergency Service said.
Bondar stressed that the Russian invaders use anti-personnel and anti-tank mines, in the Kharkov region the enemy used remote mining systems.
According to the head of the State Emergency Service, rescuers inform law enforcement agencies about all the facts of the location of prohibited ammunition.
He also stressed that due to large-scale mining by the enemy, a very large area of fields in Ukraine cannot yet be used for agricultural activities.
“But we will do our best to provide our farmers with the opportunity to carry out sowing work as soon as possible,” he assured.
“Of course, when there is information that a survey has not been carried out in a settlement for the presence of explosive objects, it is very dangerous to be in this settlement. Together with the local authorities, we are taking all measures to limit the access of the civilian population to settlements until examination was carried out,” Bondar summed up.
Ukraine in the current season can grow and harvest 63 million tons of grain and oilseeds, approximately from 20 million hectares.
The corresponding estimates of the possible harvest were published on the website of the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) on Monday.
“Ukraine, in the conditions of aggression from Russia, will still be with grain. This year, despite the fact that 5 million hectares cannot be sown or it will be impossible to harvest on them, Ukraine can receive about 63 million tons of grain and oilseeds from an area of about 20 million hectares. At the same time, the domestic market of Ukraine consumes about 30 million tons of grain and oilseeds annually,” the association’s report says.
In addition, subject to the reorientation of exports from seaports blocked by the aggressor country of the Russian Federation to land transportation, the country will be able to export up to 35 million tons of agricultural crops in the 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June).
UGA recalled that Ukraine in the current MY 2021/2022 due to the Russian blockade of seaports will not be able to export about 20 million tons of grain, which will be forced to store in elevators as transitional balances for the next MY.
According to the association, today the capacity of alternative logistics routes bypassing seaports is 600,000 tons of crops per month, but this figure can be increased by increasing the capacity of railway and logistics crossings at the borders with EU countries. Thus, thanks to the optimization of logistics, the export of grain and oilseeds in MY 2022/2023 can be expected at the level of 35 million tons.
“The current developments of the government and the public in the field of logistics and exports allow expanding the throughput to 2 million tons of crops per month. To reach the level of exports of 35 million tons of grains and oilseeds per year, it is necessary to further expand the throughput at the EU borders to 3 million tons per month,” the UGA said.
According to her, the wheat harvest in Ukraine in the current MY will decrease by 1.8 times – from 33 million tons in 2021/2022 MY to 18.2 million tons, but this figure is almost three times more than Ukraine consumes wheat per year. Taking into account the transitional stocks of wheat of the last harvest of almost 10 million tons, exports of wheat in 2022/2023 MY, with such harvest indicators and taking into account large transitional stocks, can amount to about 10 million tons.
In addition, the country can harvest up to 6.2 million tons of barley this season (in 2021 – 10.1 million tons), so its export in 2022/2023 MY can be expected at the level of 2 million tons.
The corn harvest can be expected at the level of 23.1 million tons (in 2021 – 37.6 million tons), while its exports may reach about 20 million tons.
The rapeseed harvest can be expected at the level of 1.5 million tons (2.9 million tons), while its export in 2022/2023 MY is expected at the level of 1.3 million tons.
The soybean harvest can be expected at the level of 1.8 million tons (in 2021 – 3.5 million tons), and exports in 2022/2023 MY are projected at the level of 0.6 million tons.
“Thus, Ukraine will be guaranteed to have sufficient grain reserves, while the countries of the world will not receive a significant amount of grain from Ukraine due to Russia’s war against Ukraine and rising prices, which, according to UN estimates, could cause famine in many countries of the world. In particular, Ukraine traditionally exports about 30-35% of grain to the countries of North Africa and the Middle East, 30-35% to the countries of South and Southeast Asia, and about 35-40% to European countries,” the UGA concluded in its forecast.
As reported, before the Russian military invasion, Ukraine monthly exported up to 5 million tons of agricultural products through the ports of Odessa and Nikolaev, however, due to the blockade of these ports by the aggressor country of the Russian Federation, the country can transport no more than 0.5 million tons of grain monthly, which leads to a monthly shortage $1.5 billion in export earnings.
Ukraine in 2021, according to the State Statistics Service, harvested a record harvest of 85.7 million tons of grain and leguminous crops, which is 32% higher than in 2020, including 32.07 million tons of wheat (+28.9%), 41.87 million tons of corn (+38.2%) and 9.42 million tons of barley (+23.3%).
In addition, 593.9 thousand tons of rye were harvested in Ukraine (+30% by 2020), 471 thousand tons of oats (-7.3%), 204.2 thousand tons of millet (-20.2%) , 173.9 thousand tons of sorghum (+63.2%), 106.0 thousand tons of buckwheat (+8.5%), 48.6 thousand tons of rice (-20%), 32.3 thousand tons triticale (-7.8%), as well as 681 thousand tons of other leguminous crops.
Among other crops in the country last year, 16.38 million tons of sunflower were harvested (+25% compared to 2020), 10.8 million tons of sugar beet (+18.1%), 3.5 million tons of soybeans (+24. 4%), 2.92 million tons of rapeseed and 42 thousand tons of oilseed flax (an increase of 3.7 times).
Ukraine’s GDP in 2022 will fall by 45.1%, the World Bank predicts, recalling that before the Russian invasion, it expected the Ukrainian economy to grow by 3.2% this year.
According to its Europe and Central Asia Economic Update amid the war unleashed by Russia and its consequences, in 2023 the Ukrainian economy is expected to recover by only 2.1%, which is also worse than previous expectations of 3.5%.
“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered a catastrophic humanitarian toll and severe economic contraction… The impact on poverty is also likely to be devastating, although it is hard to quantify at this stage. Based on the international poverty line of $5.50 per day, poverty is projected to increase to 19.8% in 2022, up from 1.8% in 2021, with an additional 59% of people being vulnerable to falling into poverty,” the World Bank said in the report.
According to the document, simulations using the most recent macroeconomic projection show that the share of the population with incomes below the actual subsistence minimum (the national poverty line) may reach 70% in 2022, up from 18% in 2021. In the absence of a massive post-war support package, this indicator would still be higher than 60% by 2025, the bank added.
According to the World Bank’s forecasts, private consumption in Ukraine this year will fall by 50%, while public consumption by 10%, and capital investment will drop by 57.5%. Exports of goods and services will be reduced by 80%, imports – by 70%, while the public debt to GDP ratio will increase from 50.7% to 90.7%. The forecast for the consumer price index is 15% with an increase to 19% next year.
World Bank experts expect this year a current account deficit of the balance of payments of 6.8% of GDP and its expansion to 16.8% in 2023, a fiscal deficit (non-military) – 17.5% and 26.5%, respectively.
Even for 2024, the World Bank predicts an acceleration of economic growth to only 5.8% with inflation of 8.4%
“In coming years, a major reconstruction effort is expected to push growth to over 7% by 2025 amid a slow restoration of productive and export capacity and gradual return of refugees. Still, by 2025, GDP will be a third less than its pre-war level in 2021,” the World Bank said.
The World Bank explains the absence of a strong rebound in economic growth in 2022-2023 by saying that the war has destroyed a critical amount of productive infrastructure—including rail, bridges, ports, and roads—rendering economic activity impossible in large swathes of areas. Goods trade has come to a grinding halt, as damaged transit routes prevent goods by land while the loss of access to the Black Sea cuts off half of Ukraine’s exports and 90% of its grain trade. The planting and harvest seasons have been disrupted, the World Bank said.
“The magnitude of the contraction, however, is subject to a high degree of uncertainty related to the duration and intensity of the war. Still, the repercussions are anticipated to reverberate beyond the short-term collapse in domestic demand and exports, as output is scarred by the destruction of productive capacity, damage to arable land, and smaller labor supply – especially if refugees are slow to return or choose to remain permanently outside Ukraine,” the World Bank said.
Learning losses from the pandemic are expected to be amplified by the war given the destruction of schools and disruption to schooling. The Bank, referring to UNICEF data, said that the war had displaced 4.5 million children – more than half of Ukraine’s estimated 7.5 million child population – likely disrupting education, setting back development goals, and eroding long-term potential growth prospects.
“With physical capital and vital assets destroyed and degraded, combined with scarring from the war and pandemic, the recovery will be more difficult without significant reconstruction efforts and capital flows,” the World Bank said.
The Cabinet of Ministers is allocating the first billion hryvnia from the Reserve Fund to restore the territories liberated from Russian troops, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said.
“The funds will be used to eliminate the consequences of hostilities and the priority restoration of infrastructure,” Shmyhal wrote on the Telegram channel on Sunday.
According to him, UAH 400 million is allocated for the Kiev region, UAH 250 million each for Chernihiv and Sumy regions, and another UAH 100 million for the Zhytomyr region.
The Prime Minister noted that the funds will be used to repair engineering networks and systems for the restoration of heat, gas, water, electricity, as well as to dismantle the destruction, repair roofs, replace windows and doors, eliminate potholes on roads and other urgent needs.
The funds will be managed by the civil-military administrations in each region. On the part of the government, the process will be coordinated by the Ministry of Development of Communities and Territories.
“This is only the first stage, and there is still a lot of work to be done on the capital restoration of our country. We will start this immediately after the victory,” Shmyhal stressed.
A working group has been created in the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine to protect Ukrainian citizens who have gone abroad during the war.
“On April 9, at a government meeting, a resolution was approved on the creation of a working group to protect the rights and freedoms of citizens of Ukraine located on the territory of the EU member states and other states as temporarily displaced persons. The co-chairs of the working group were appointed Vice Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olha Stefanyshina and Minister of Social Policy Marina Lazebnaya,” the government’s press service said in a statement.
It is noted that among the tasks of the working group: the use of the Diya application in the process of making social, compensation and other payments; cancellation of roaming charges when using mobile communications abroad; providing digital consular registration of citizens during their stay abroad; provision of educational services in Ukrainian; strengthening protection mechanisms against human trafficking; creating opportunities for citizens outside of Ukraine to obtain or confirm all necessary documentation; establishing cooperation between law enforcement agencies, social protection and migration authorities of Ukraine with the relevant authorities in the EU Member States; facilitating the rapid recognition of professional qualifications and other issues.
