Ukraine’s key macroeconomic indicators have stabilized somewhat, but continue to testify to the significant role of international structures in keeping the Ukrainian economy in working order.
The National Bank estimates that Ukraine’s GDP decline in the first quarter of 2023 year-on-year has slowed significantly to 13.5% from 31.4% and 30.6% in the fourth and third quarters of 2022, respectively. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko gave his forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2023 to 3.2%, while the government previously estimated GDP growth at 1% and the National Bank recently improved it from 0.3% to 2%. Investment firm Dragon Capital also forecast real GDP growth of 3% in 2023, while it previously expected it to fall by 0.5%. The World Bank has worsened its forecast for Ukraine’s gross domestic product growth for this year to 2% from 3.3%, which it predicted in January 2023.
Recall that Ukraine’s GDP in the first quarter of 2023 fell by 10.5% compared to the first quarter of 2022 after falling by 31.4% in the fourth quarter, 30.6% in the third quarter, 36.9% in the second quarter and 14.9% in the first quarter of last year.
At the same time, the Ukrainian authorities have set a super ambitious goal to increase GDP to $1 trillion over 10 years, First Deputy Prime Minister and Economy Minister Yulia Sviridenko said at the Ukraine Recovery Conference in London.
Maxim Urakin, founder of the Kiev-based think tank Club of Experts, drew attention to the significant decline in Ukraine’s foreign trade balance. “The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-March 2023, according to the State Statistics Committee, increased 26 (twenty-six) times compared to the same period of 2022 – to $5.394 billion from $0.208 billion. Exports of goods from Ukraine for this period compared to the first quarter of 22 decreased by 26.1% – to $10.306 billion, and imports increased by 10.9%, to $15.699 billion,” – said Maxim Urakin.
Military expenditures of the state budget continue to grow. Budget expenditures to support the AFU in the form of purchase of military equipment, weapons, ammunition, defense products, personal protective equipment in May increased to UAH 43.4 billion in February (15.6% of all expenditures) from UAH 42.5 billion (18.5%) in April and UAH 34.4 billion (15.3%) in March.
Ukraine in January-March 2023 realized industrial products (goods, services) in the amount of UAH 755.755 billion, which is 14.2% less than in January-March 2022 (UAH 880.419 billion), including outside the country – in the amount of UAH 137.783 billion.
The total state debt of Ukraine in April 2023 increased by 3.6% and reached a new historical maximum: in dollar terms – by $4.37 billion, to $124.28 billion, in hryvnia terms – by UAH 159.9 billion, to UAH 4 trillion 544.9 billion.
At the same time, due to international aid, Ukraine’s international reserves reached a record high in June, amounting to almost $39bn, which is a record high in the history of independent Ukraine, the head of the National Bank of Ukraine, Andriy Pyshnyy, has said. The head of the National Bank specified that in June the government’s accounts received: $1.6 billion from the EU, $1.2 billion from the USA, $69.1 million from the World Bank and $15.0 million from the government of Finland.
Inflation in Ukraine in May 2023 slightly accelerated to 0.5% in May from 0.2% in April, and on an annualized basis in May-2023 it fell to 15.3% from 17.9% in April, 21.3% in March, 24.9% in February and 26.6% in December.
Retail turnover of Ukraine in January-March 2023 compared to the same period of 2022 decreased by 9.1% and amounted to 390.1 billion UAH. According to the statistical Department, at the same time in March of this year recorded an increase in retail turnover to March last year by 35.5%, while in February the decline was 22.6%. Recall that the retail turnover of Ukraine in 2022 compared to 2021 decreased by 21.4% and amounted to 1.398 trillion UAH.
Record high temperatures were recorded globally last week, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Monday.
“According to preliminary data, the world recorded the hottest week on record. It followed the hottest June on record with unprecedented sea surface temperatures and a record small area of Antarctic sea ice,” the WMO said in a release on its website.
According to preliminary data, the average global temperature on July 7 was 17.24 degrees Celsius. This is 0.3 degrees Celsius higher than the previous record set on August 16, 2016, that year El Niño (a natural phenomenon strongly affecting the climate in a number of world regions – IF) was particularly active. The reanalysis data has not yet been confirmed.
According to Christopher Hewitt, director of WMO’s Climate Information Division, El Niño is expected to “further fuel heatwaves both on land and in the oceans and lead to more extreme temperatures and marine heatwaves.”
“We can expect to see more temperature records as El Niño develops, with the impact of this phenomenon continuing through 2024,” he said, calling such a scenario “troubling news for the planet.”
It emphasizes that record high temperatures on land and in the ocean can have “potentially devastating impacts on ecosystems and the environment.” The WMO notes that such phenomena are a consequence of climate change caused by human activity.
On Saturday afternoon, short-term rains with thunderstorms are expected in Kyiv region, thunderstorms are forecast in the capital at night, and the yellow (I) level of danger has been declared, the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center reports.
“Warning of dangerous meteorological phenomena in Kyiv region. Partly cloudy weather. Short-term rains with thunderstorms (in some places during the day),” the message posted on the telegram channel reads.
North wind 7-12 m/s, some gusts of 15-18 m/s during the day.
The temperature in the region at night will be 14-19°, during the day 20-25°.
In Kyiv on Saturday at night 17-19°, during the day 23-25°.
The risk of cholera in the south and east of Ukraine is higher than in other regions, says infectious disease doctor Olga Bonkovska.
“There is still a higher risk of cholera outbreaks in the south and east of Ukraine. These regions are the regions with the highest risk of a cholera epidemic,” she said on the air of the analytical center “Experts Club”.
Commenting on the risks of cholera outbreaks after the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station dam was blown up, Bonkovska noted the danger of cholera, in particular, because “cholera starts as a common intestinal infection, and in the initial stages it is impossible to distinguish whether it is cholera or a common intestinal infection.”
“I do not recommend self-medication, because it will help if it is a common intestinal infection, but if it is cholera, there is no way to cure cholera at home,” she said.
The expert reminded that the main manifestation of cholera is dehydration.
“Due to severe dehydration, a person can go into shock with loss of all body functions, kidneys, heart, which can lead to death,” she said.
The infectious disease specialist emphasized that during cholera, “fluid loss becomes so severe that a person simply does not have time to replenish the fluid loss with water.”
“The rate of water excretion from the body exceeds the rate of water absorption during oral rehydration, and medical care in a hospital is needed to replenish water,” she said.
Bonkovska noted that in order to protect oneself from cholera, especially in the regions affected by flooding, it is necessary to drink bottled water or water that has been treated by boiling or using special tablets, wash fresh vegetables and fruits with bottled water or chilled boiled water, wash or disinfect hands with ordinary sanitizers, get rid of the habit of keeping hands in the mouth: take the rule “Hands out of the mouth!” as an axiom.
In addition, the infectious disease specialist recommends not eating with your hands, “as a last resort, keep a sandwich or any other food in a clean napkin,” not eating shrimp or fish without prior heat treatment, and swimming only in those bodies of water where it is allowed.
At the same time, the expert emphasized the inadmissibility of self-medication of acute intestinal infections with antibiotics.
“I don’t advise you to start treating diarrhea at home. It is still better to seek medical help,” she said.
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Gambling business in Ukraine in January-June 2023 paid 2.94 billion UAH of taxes, which is 14 times more than during the same period in 2022, said the first deputy head of the specialized parliamentary committee, head of the temporary investigative commission (TIC) on economic security Yaroslav Zheleznyak.
“Let me remind you: the first half of 2022 gambling business brought to the budget only 209 million UAH. And most of the operators were sitting on the “2%” benefit and were engaged in miscoding,” he wrote in the Telegram-channel on Wednesday
Zheleznyak specified that for June collected 562 million UAH, which is 100 million more than in March, when companies also paid income tax.
“There are still some particularly ‘smart’ ones in the market, especially with income tax, so there will be a continuation,” he added.
In addition, on Wednesday, Ukrainian online casino PIN-UP Ukraine reported paying 1.067 billion UAH to the budget in the first half of this year: in the first quarter – 524.7 million UAH, in the second quarter – 519.2 million UAH.
The company specified that this amount also includes 23.4 million UAH for the license to operate obtained by LLC “Ukr Game Technology” in 2021.
“We strive to become an example of business that contributes to the economic development of the country,” PIN-UP Ukraine COO Igor Zotko said in a statement.
More and more entrepreneurs and organizations are turning to grant programs in the hope of obtaining financial support for their projects. However, many of them make typical mistakes even at the stage of submitting and implementing an application, which can lead to undesirable consequences. In this regard, Kyiv Analytical Center “Experts Club” together with the founder of “Granta” company and grant projects implementation expert Olga Shaverina, launched a series of YouTube videos, dedicated to the peculiarities of grant financing. In the first video Olga Shaverina shared her experience and told about the most common mistakes made by beginner grantees, as well as gave recommendations on how to avoid them.
The first mistake many people make is not trusting grantmaking tools. Some entrepreneurs do not realize the opportunities that grants provide and miss the chance to get funding for their projects. Lack of information about grant programs and lack of knowledge about procedures can cause missed opportunities.
The second mistake, according to the expert, has to do with not accepting the fact that business is part of society. Many entrepreneurs forget that grant programs are usually aimed at solving social problems or supporting certain social initiatives. Emphasizing the social importance of their project can help in attracting the attention of grantmakers.
The third mistake is neglecting procedures. This is a critical component of successful grantmaking, where proper paperwork and adherence to grant program requirements are critical to your success. Negligence in this matter can cause the application to be rejected.
“Reassign the preparation of the grant application to your secretary on the principle of “He/She can do it! ” because he/she knows how to do the paperwork is the most common mistake among applicants. Most projects fail exactly on this basis,” says Olga Shaverina.
The fourth mistake entrepreneurs often make is underestimating the cost of training. First of all it is a question of labor inputs, because preparation of the grant application demands time, efforts and resources. Some entrepreneurs underestimate the amount of work required to prepare a quality application. Developing a detailed budget, creating a project plan, and analyzing the market and competitors all require careful preparation and research. The lack of a detailed plan and an incomplete understanding of the necessary resources can lead to project failure.
Finally, a fifth mistake worth noting is misunderstanding partnerships and consultant selection. Working in partnership with other organizations or consultants can greatly improve the chances of a successful grant project. However, choosing partners incorrectly or not understanding their role and contribution to the project can lead to conflicts and ineffective work. The criteria for selecting partners and consultants must be clearly defined and meet the goals and needs of the project.
Ms. Shaverina also emphasized the importance of a proper understanding of reporting. Many entrepreneurs underestimate the importance of reporting and do not pay adequate attention to it. Failure to comply with reporting requirements may result in penalties or loss of funding. Therefore, it is necessary to carefully study the reporting requirements and provide all the necessary documents in a timely manner.
Maxim Urakin, founder of the Club of Experts, in turn, shared statistics on grant assistance to Ukraine for the years 2022-2023. Thus, he noted that in 2022 international aid to Ukraine amounted to more than $32 billion, including 18 billion in grant support.
“This year Ukraine has already received about $19 billion in assistance, of which $11 billion was received in January-March, of which $3.7 billion came in the form of grants. That is why grant assistance, including those for specific projects, is extremely important for our economy under current conditions,” said Maxim Uralkin.
So, grant programs are an important tool for business development and implementation of social initiatives. However, in order to receive grant support successfully, it is necessary to avoid common mistakes, which the experts told us about. Compliance with requirements and procedures, understanding the importance of the social aspect of the project, choosing the right partners and consultants, as well as consciously estimating costs and preparing for reporting are all factors that can increase the chances of success.
You can learn more about the mistakes you make when submitting a grant proposal by watching the video on the Club of Experts YouTube channel:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8F7qjrSoWac
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