Forecast of dynamics of changes in Ukrainian GDP in % for 2022-2025 in relation to previous period
Source: Open4Business.com.ua
The volume of global debt, including liabilities of governments, households, financial and non-financial companies, increased by $7.2 trillion to a record $318.4 trillion in 2024, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF).
However, the report notes that the growth was significantly lower than in 2023, when debt increased by $16 trillion due to the monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The debt-to-GDP ratio rose 1.5 percentage points to 328% last year due to a slowdown in the global economy. The rise in the ratio was recorded for the first time in four years, i.e. since the COVID-19 pandemic.
About 65% of the growth in global debt in 2024 was in emerging markets, primarily China, India, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. In mature markets, debt accumulation was mainly in the US, UK, Canada and Sweden.
The public sector accounted for almost two-thirds of the increase in debt. Global government debt has surpassed $95.3 trillion, up from $70 trillion in the run-up to the pandemic in 2019.
IIF forecasts global government debt to increase by more than $5 trillion in 2025, mainly due to increased borrowing by the US, PRC, India, France and Brazil.
Total debt in emerging markets grew by $4.5 trillion in 2024 and reached an all-time high of 245% of GDP. These nations need to repay a record $8.2 trillion in liabilities this year, with about 10% of that debt denominated in foreign currencies.
“We expect the pace of global debt accumulation to slow further, especially in the first half of 2025,” the report said. – With global economic policy uncertainty at a record high – above that seen at the peak of the pandemic – and borrowing costs still high, a more cautious stance by borrowers is likely to curb private sector demand for credit.”
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank analyzed the level of debts of the world’s countries to their GDP, video analysis is available in the dynamics from 1950 to 2023, –
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/oT_5cTOnM8k
Demand for commercial space in residential complexes is growing, with rental rates almost back to pre-war levels, Intergal-Bud’s commercial director Anna Laevska told Interfax-Ukraine.
“Today, the demand for commercial space in residential complexes is growing rapidly. This is especially true for shops, supermarkets, services, educational institutions – schools, kindergartens. Operators are actively expanding, entering new premises, and in general, this segment is developing even better than the apartment market,” said Laevska.
According to her, the developer retains in its own rental stock premises with a payback period of up to 12 years. If it is longer, they are usually sold, and the developer offers flexible payment terms, loyalty programs for those who pay the full amount at once, and installment options.
Investors are interested in commercial premises at different stages: both at the excavation stage and when the facility is ready. It all depends on the location and payment terms. As for the area, supermarkets are usually looking for 800 to 1500 square meters, cafes or coffee shops – up to 100 square meters, private clinics can be 150-300 square meters. Smaller premises sell faster because of their lower cost.
“We always take a targeted approach to the choice of residents. We want the complex to include a pharmacy, a clinic, a grocery operator, educational institutions, and services. In other words, we are creating a complete infrastructure. If, for example, there is a grocery store, we offer the rest of the premises to a business that will meet another need of the residents,” she said.
According to her, rental rates have almost returned to the pre-war level, but it all depends on the specific object, its location, traffic, and functionality. In residential complexes with high occupancy, the price may be even higher due to the large flow of people and cars.
All commercial lots take into account the requirements for inclusiveness, energy efficiency and security.
In particular, all premises have either an entrance from ground level or a ramp with the correct angle. Generators provide backup power for all premises, although this is not always critical for commercial facilities, as they are usually located on the ground floor. Tenants are now actively buying out storerooms in basements and equipping individual shelters for their employees, so these premises are now used not only as warehouses but also as protective zones.
Intergal-Bud has been operating in the residential real estate market since 2003. The company’s portfolio includes 184 projects. In 2024, almost 358.5 thousand square meters of real estate were built and put into operation, which corresponds to 3.8 thousand apartments in 20 buildings.
According to Opendatabot, revenue for 2023 amounted to UAH 959.2 million, with a net loss of UAH 22.9 million. For the three quarters of 2024, revenue amounted to UAH 636.4 million, net loss – UAH 51 million 457 thousand.
Since 2019, Interpipe, a vertically integrated pipe and wheel company, has shipped more than 7,800 wheelsets for the Iberian gauge to customers.
According to a press release, the company has delivered the first batch of ULT SP wheelsets under the KLW brand for the Iberian gauge, and since its launch, the “long” wheelset has quickly gained popularity among customers.
Interpipe’s railway business is currently celebrating the 5th anniversary of its entry into the niche market. It is specified that the ULT SP wheelset is part of the Ultimate line of low-load railway products for freight cars. This design was developed specifically for use on the Iberian gauge. The latter combines rail systems with 1668 mm gauge tracks, which is 233 mm wider than the standard European gauge. The product meets the latest standards for freight wheels and axles, as well as the special requirements of the Spanish and Portuguese rail markets, which are dominated by this type of railroad gauge.
“Interpipe has further strengthened its position not only as a manufacturer, but also as a developer of advanced wheel, axle and wheelset designs. The Ultimate line is in demand among customers in many European countries, now including operators of various types of railways,” the statement emphasizes.
“Interpipe is a Ukrainian industrial company, a manufacturer of steel pipes and railway products. The company’s products are supplied to more than 50 countries through a network of sales offices located in key markets in the Middle East, North America and Europe. In 2023, Interpipe sold 387 thousand tons of pipe products and 95 thousand tons of railway products under the KLW brand.
The company has five industrial assets: “Interpipe Nizhnedneprovsky Pipe Rolling Plant (NTZ), Interpipe Novomoskovsky Pipe Rolling Plant (NMPP), Interpipe Niko Tube, Dnipropetrovs’k Vtormet and Dnipro Steel, an electric steelmaking complex under the Interpipe Steel brand.
The total number of employees of the company is about 9.5 thousand.
The ultimate owner of Interpipe Limited is Ukrainian businessman and philanthropist Victor Pinchuk and his family members.
Sukha Balka mine (Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro region), part of Aleksandr Yaroslavsky’s DCH group, has commissioned a new block with iron ore reserves of 41.5 thousand tons.
As reported in DCH Steel’s corporate newspaper on Thursday, a new production unit was commissioned at the Frunze mine, which will ensure production in the coming months.
“On February 26, a new block 55-61 from the Druzhba deposit at the -1210-meter horizon was commissioned at the Frunze mine. The production capacity reserves amount to 41.5 thousand tons of high-quality raw materials with an iron content of 60% to 66%. Sinking and mining operations were carried out with the help of self-propelled equipment, while drilling was carried out using NKR machines. The extraction of raw materials is organized by a classic end-face production,” the information states.
The block’s reserves are planned to be developed in 2.5 months. Block 55-61 is the final block at the -1210 m horizon, and the next production units will be developed at lower horizons of the deposit.
It is also worth mentioning that in January, Yubileynaya Mine commissioned a new block with 135,000 tons of raw materials, which is planned to be developed within five months.
Sukha Balka mine is one of the leading mining companies in Ukraine. It produces iron ore by underground mining. The mine includes Yubileynaya and Frunze mines. Frunze mine.
DCH Group acquired the mine from Evraz Group in May 2017.
Issue #2 – February 2025
The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market and a forecast of the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on the latest data. We analyze current conditions, market dynamics, key influencing factors, and likely scenarios.
February 2025 brought relative stability to the Ukrainian currency market without any sharp jumps, but some trends continue to form the backdrop for future changes. After the January increase in demand for foreign currency, which was typical for the beginning of the year, the situation has gradually leveled off. The hryvnia maintains a balance between internal factors, including the NBU’s monetary policy and the balance of payments, and external factors, including the US Federal Reserve’s decisions, the ECB’s policy, and general trends in international markets.
Analysis of the current situation
The hryvnia remains stable within a narrow range
In early February, the hryvnia exchange rate against the US dollar and the euro tended to decline, but after February 13, the situation stabilized. The dollar on the cash market was in the range of 41.40-42.00 UAH/$, while the euro fluctuated between 43.00-44.00 UAH/€. The bid-ask spread for the dollar remained in the range of 50-60 kopeks, and for the euro it was 60-70 kopeks, indicating a balance between supply and demand.
The depreciation in the first half of the month was caused by several key factors
Ø Increased supply of cash currency – banks imported significant amounts of dollars, which created a temporary oversupply in the market: according to the NBU, the volume of cash dollars imported into Ukraine amounted to $1.316 billion, and cash euros – the equivalent of $450 million, which allows to meet market demand.
Ø The NBU continued to pursue a policy of restraining exchange rate fluctuations by using interventions. An additional factor was the seasonal decline in demand for foreign currency after the holidays.
However, the second half of February brought some changes. Despite the absence of pressure on the hryvnia from global FX market factors, the dollar continued to strengthen on international markets, thanks to strong US economic data and the Fed’s tightening monetary policy rhetoric. The euro, which had been falling in the first half of the month, returned to growth on February 13 and subsequently stabilized after the ECB announced that it might support the economy. These processes drove some appreciation of the euro against the hryvnia.
Dollar exchange rate forecast
Short-term forecast (2-4 weeks)
The dollar is expected to remain in the range of UAH 41.50-42.20/$. The main factors that will influence the market will be the NBU’s decision on the key policy rate on March 6 and the US Federal Reserve’s policy. The expected increase in the NBU’s discount rate may temporarily strengthen the hryvnia, while its maintenance at the current level will allow the exchange rate to fluctuate within the specified range.
Medium-term forecast (2-4 months)
The hryvnia may gradually weaken in the spring, especially if the foreign trade deficit grows. If the current level of key macroeconomic indicators and reserves is maintained, the NBU will be able to control the hryvnia exchange rate, but the average forecast corridor for the dollar will shift to UAH 42.50-44.00/$. The main risks remain possible delays in international financial assistance and an increase in the budget deficit.
Long-term outlook (6+ months)
By the end of the year, the dollar may reach UAH 44.50-45.50/$, especially if economic growth remains low. At the same time, the easing of the US Federal Reserve’s policy in the second half of the year may create preconditions for some stabilization of the exchange rate. However, even in this scenario, the hryvnia remains within the range of the projected average annual exchange rate.
Euro exchange rate forecast
Short-term forecast (2-4 weeks)
The euro is likely to remain in the range of UAH 43.30-44.20/€ with periodic corrections depending on fluctuations in the euro/dollar pair on the global market. If the dollar continues to strengthen, the euro may approach the lower end of the forecast range.
Medium-term forecast (2-4 months)
If the European economy stagnates and the Fed tightens its policy, the euro may fall to 42.50-43.50 UAH/€. At the same time, if the ECB signals its intention to support economic growth, the euro may remain relatively stable.
Long-term outlook (6+ months)
The euro has the potential for a moderate decline in 2025, especially if the ECB continues to ease policy. In this case, the hryvnia may remain relatively stable against the euro or even strengthen slightly.
Recommendations for businesses and investors
In the short term, businesses can focus on the current stability of the hryvnia and continue to diversify their currency risks.
An increase in the share of dollar assets may be advisable, especially if the Fed does not change its tightening policy.
Private investors should take a balanced approach to foreign exchange transactions. Investments in euros may not bring quick short-term profits due to the weakness of the European economy, but the dollar remains a reliable tool for preserving capital.
In the long term, the main risk to the hryvnia exchange rate is a possible increase in the budget deficit and rising inflationary pressures in Ukraine. Savings should be kept in hard currency or diversified into assets less sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations.
This material was prepared by the company’s analysts and reflects their expert, analytical professional judgment. The information provided in this review is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for action.
The Company and its analysts make no representations and assume no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is” without any additional warranties of completeness, obligations of timeliness or updates or additions.
Users of this material should make their own risk assessments and informed decisions based on their own evaluation and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they consider to be sufficiently qualified. We recommend that you consult an independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
REFERENCE
KYT Group is an international multi-service product FinTech company that has been successfully operating in the non-banking financial services market for 16 years. One of the company’s flagship activities is currency exchange. KYT Group is one of the largest operators in this segment of the Ukrainian financial market, is among the largest taxpayers, and is one of the industry leaders in terms of asset growth and equity.
More than 90 branches in 16 major cities of Ukraine are located in convenient locations for customers and have modern equipment for the convenience, security and confidentiality of each transaction.
The company’s activities comply with the regulatory requirements of the NBU. KYT Group adheres to EU standards, having a branch in Poland and planning cross-border expansion to European countries.
