Ukraine’s GDP in 2022 will fall by 45.1%, the World Bank predicts, recalling that before the Russian invasion, it expected the Ukrainian economy to grow by 3.2% this year.
According to its Europe and Central Asia Economic Update amid the war unleashed by Russia and its consequences, in 2023 the Ukrainian economy is expected to recover by only 2.1%, which is also worse than previous expectations of 3.5%.
“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered a catastrophic humanitarian toll and severe economic contraction… The impact on poverty is also likely to be devastating, although it is hard to quantify at this stage. Based on the international poverty line of $5.50 per day, poverty is projected to increase to 19.8% in 2022, up from 1.8% in 2021, with an additional 59% of people being vulnerable to falling into poverty,” the World Bank said in the report.
According to the document, simulations using the most recent macroeconomic projection show that the share of the population with incomes below the actual subsistence minimum (the national poverty line) may reach 70% in 2022, up from 18% in 2021. In the absence of a massive post-war support package, this indicator would still be higher than 60% by 2025, the bank added.
According to the World Bank’s forecasts, private consumption in Ukraine this year will fall by 50%, while public consumption by 10%, and capital investment will drop by 57.5%. Exports of goods and services will be reduced by 80%, imports – by 70%, while the public debt to GDP ratio will increase from 50.7% to 90.7%. The forecast for the consumer price index is 15% with an increase to 19% next year.
World Bank experts expect this year a current account deficit of the balance of payments of 6.8% of GDP and its expansion to 16.8% in 2023, a fiscal deficit (non-military) – 17.5% and 26.5%, respectively.
Even for 2024, the World Bank predicts an acceleration of economic growth to only 5.8% with inflation of 8.4%
“In coming years, a major reconstruction effort is expected to push growth to over 7% by 2025 amid a slow restoration of productive and export capacity and gradual return of refugees. Still, by 2025, GDP will be a third less than its pre-war level in 2021,” the World Bank said.
The World Bank explains the absence of a strong rebound in economic growth in 2022-2023 by saying that the war has destroyed a critical amount of productive infrastructure—including rail, bridges, ports, and roads—rendering economic activity impossible in large swathes of areas. Goods trade has come to a grinding halt, as damaged transit routes prevent goods by land while the loss of access to the Black Sea cuts off half of Ukraine’s exports and 90% of its grain trade. The planting and harvest seasons have been disrupted, the World Bank said.
“The magnitude of the contraction, however, is subject to a high degree of uncertainty related to the duration and intensity of the war. Still, the repercussions are anticipated to reverberate beyond the short-term collapse in domestic demand and exports, as output is scarred by the destruction of productive capacity, damage to arable land, and smaller labor supply – especially if refugees are slow to return or choose to remain permanently outside Ukraine,” the World Bank said.
Learning losses from the pandemic are expected to be amplified by the war given the destruction of schools and disruption to schooling. The Bank, referring to UNICEF data, said that the war had displaced 4.5 million children – more than half of Ukraine’s estimated 7.5 million child population – likely disrupting education, setting back development goals, and eroding long-term potential growth prospects.
“With physical capital and vital assets destroyed and degraded, combined with scarring from the war and pandemic, the recovery will be more difficult without significant reconstruction efforts and capital flows,” the World Bank said.
In January 2022, member insurance companies of the Motor (Transport) Insurance Bureau of Ukraine (MTIBU) concluded 590.5 thousand contracts of compulsory civil liability insurance of land vehicle owners (OSAGO), which is 1.04% more than in January 2021.
According to the data published on the MTIBU website, out of the total volume of contracts, 273.3 thousand were concluded in electronic form, which is 5.05% more than in the first month of 2021.
Members of the Bureau increased the collection of insurance payments under OSAGO policies by 16.68% compared to the same period last year – up to UAH 522.7 million, including for electronic contracts – in the amount of UAH 271.2 million, which is 23.16% more, than a year earlier
The total amount of accrued insurance claims under internal insurance contracts for January 2022 increased by 9.72% to UAH 287.2 million. Including UAH 57.4 million was paid using the Europrotocol, which is 19.3% more than a year earlier.
The Bureau also recorded an increase in the number of settled claims for insurance compensation by 4.93% – up to 13.461 thousand, including 5.221 thousand (+14.2%) using the “Europrotocol”.
MTIBU is the only association of insurers that provides compulsory insurance of civil liability of owners of ground vehicles for damage caused to third parties. Bureau members are 49 insurance companies.
New Zealand will send a C-130 Hercules transport plane with 50 servicemen to Europe to participate in the distribution of military aid to Ukraine, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced.
Over the next two months, our C-130 will join a chain of military aircraft from partner countries that will travel across Europe delivering much-needed equipment and supplies to key distribution centers, Ardern was quoted as saying by local media.
New Zealand will also allocate an additional NZ$ 13 million to help Ukraine, including 7.5 million for the purchase of weapons and ammunition through the UK. At the moment, the total contribution of New Zealand is $30 million.
The European Investment Bank (EIB) is preparing a EUR 4 billion financing program that will help EU member states take in Ukrainian refugees fleeing the war, as well as ensure the development of critical social infrastructure.
“The new EIB program, pending approval by the EIB’s Board of Directors, aims to finance the development of key social infrastructure for the provision of public services to refugees, including housing, schools, hospitals and kindergartens. The financial support will be complemented by advisory support, helping local authorities in EU Member States with free technical assistance to assess local needs rapidly, and plan, prioritize and prepare the related investments,” the bank said on its website.
“The EIB pledged the support for refugees at Stand Up for Ukraine, a global fundraising event in Warsaw to support the victims of the Russian aggression,” the report says.
“We are all devastated by the terrible destruction inflicted on Ukraine and its people, millions of whom are fleeing their country in search of peace and security. The horror we are witnessing strengthens our determination to act. With our initial Solidarity Package for Ukraine, and this new EUR 4 billion program for EU Member States, we will support Ukraine and help communities welcoming the refugees, ensuring they can offer them vital social facilities – housing, schools, hospitals. I am deeply grateful to President Ursula von der Leyen and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for their leadership and for mobilizing the international community for Ukraine. The world must live up to the exemplary courage and resilience of the Ukrainian people and help them and those who support them,” EIB President Werner Hoyer said.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said that Germany’s position has recently been changing in favor of Ukraine.
“I spoke today with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. About how to bring to justice all those responsible for war crimes. How to strengthen sanctions against Russia and how to force Russia to seek peace. I am glad to note that recently the German position has been changing in favor of Ukraine,” he said in a video message on Sunday evening.
“I consider this absolutely logical. Since this is the course supported by the majority of the German people,” the president said, noting that he expects “everything agreed upon will be implemented.”
Losses among civilians from February 24, when Russia started the war against Ukraine, until 24:00 on April 9 amounted to 4232 civilians (in the summary of the day before – 4149), including 1793 dead (1766), reports the office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights on Sunday.
“OHCHR believes that the actual figures are much higher as information is delayed from some areas of intense fighting and many reports are still awaiting confirmation,” the document says.
According to him, this applies, for example, to Mariupol (Donetsk region), Izyum (Kharkiv region), Popasna (Luhansk region) and Borodianka (Kyiv region), where there are reports of numerous civilian casualties. They are subject to further verification and are not included in the above statistics.
“The majority of civilian deaths or injuries were caused by the use of explosive devices with a wide area of effect, including shelling from heavy artillery and multiple launch rocket systems, as well as rocket and air strikes,” the report says.
According to confirmed UN data, 458 men, 294 women, 46 boys and 27 girls died, while the sex of 69 children and 899 adults has not yet been determined.
Among the 2,439 injured were 47 girls and 46 boys, as well as 136 children whose gender has not yet been determined.
Compared to the previous day, three children were killed and 14 more injured, according to the UN.
OHCHR indicates that in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as of midnight on April 10, there were 571 (560) dead and 963 (944) injured in government-controlled territory, and 71 (70) dead and 275 (269) injured in territory controlled by self-proclaimed “republics”.
In other regions of Ukraine under government control (in Kyiv, as well as in Zhytomyr, Zaporozhye, Kiev, Sumy, Odessa, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, Kherson, Dnepropetrovsk, Cherkasy and Chernihiv regions), the UN recorded 1151 (1136) dead and 1201 (1170) wounded .
The report also states that, according to the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine, as of 08:00 on April 10, 176 (176) children were killed, 336 (324) were injured.
The summary traditionally states that the increase in indicators in it to the previous report should not be attributed only to cases that occurred on April 9, since during the day OHCHR also verified a number of cases that occurred in previous days.
