The article presents key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the global economy in January-November 2024. The analysis is based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, the IMF, the World Bank, and the United Nations, on the basis of which Maksim Urakin, PhD in Economics, founder of the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world. The key aspects of the report include the dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, unemployment, foreign trade and public debt of Ukraine, as well as global macroeconomic trends.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
In 2024, Ukraine’s economy demonstrated moderate growth despite the ongoing challenges posed by the war and external economic factors. According to the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine, the country’s gross domestic product grew by 4.2% year-on-year in January-October 2024. In October, growth was 1.3% year-on-year. The main drivers of growth were construction, transportation, and manufacturing.
However, inflation remains a significant challenge for the economy. According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, annual inflation reached 12% in December 2024, accelerating from 8.6% in September. Consumer prices in December increased by 1.4% compared to November, when they grew by 1.9%.
“Inflation creates a significant burden on households and businesses. Combating price pressure requires thoughtful steps in monetary and fiscal policy,” Urakin emphasized.
The negative balance of foreign trade in goods in January-November 2024 increased by 3.6% compared to the same period in 2023, reaching $25.239 billion.
“This indicates high imports and insufficient export growth. It is necessary to strengthen support for exporters and develop strategically important industries to improve the trade balance,” said Maksim Urakin.
Ukraine’s international reserves increased by $3.863 billion or 9.7% in December and amounted to $43.788 billion as of January 1, 2025, according to preliminary data.
“The growth of reserves is due to the receipt of foreign currency from international partners, which in December exceeded the net sale of foreign currency by the National Bank and the country’s payments on foreign debts,” Maksim Urakin emphasized.
Global economy
Global economic activity remains heterogeneous. According to the International Monetary Fund, global economic growth in 2024 will be 3.1%. However, geopolitical instability, high interest rates, and slowing growth in key economies continue to weigh on the outlook.
The US economy is showing steady growth thanks to strong domestic demand. According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the country’s GDP grew by 2.8% in the third quarter of 2024, driven by a 3.7% increase in consumer spending. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6%, indicating stability in the labor market. At the same time, inflation, although declining from its peak, remains at 3.9% year-on-year.
“The US economy remains the engine of global growth, but high interest rates and government spending cuts may slow its pace in 2025,” Urakin said.
The EU economy is showing weak growth rates. The forecast for 2024 has been lowered to 0.9%, and for the Eurozone countries – to 0.8%. Germany, the largest economy in the region, is under pressure due to the weakness of the industrial sector, where production fell by 1.2% year-on-year. Inflation in the Eurozone slowed to 4.2%, allowing the European Central Bank to consider easing monetary policy in 2025.
“The EU economy is facing a number of challenges, including the energy crisis and weakening external demand. These factors limit the potential for recovery,” Urakin emphasized.
India continues to demonstrate stable growth, remaining one of the fastest growing economies in the world. According to the Indian government, the country’s GDP will grow by 7% in 2024. The main growth drivers are the IT sector, industrial production and agriculture. Inflation remains under control at 5.2%, which allows the Reserve Bank of India to keep the key policy rate unchanged.
“India is strengthening its position as a global economic leader. Its steady growth and reforms in key sectors continue to attract significant investment,” Urakin said.
China’s economy grew by 4.6% in the third quarter of 2024, but the forecast for the year was lowered to 4.8% due to weak domestic demand and difficulties in the real estate sector. Corporate debt problems and slowing export growth continue to weigh on the economy.
“China is facing challenges that may limit its role in the global recovery. However, the measures taken to support the economy should reduce these risks,” Urakin added.
Economic indicators for Ukraine and the world in 2024 show a contradictory picture. GDP growth and positive signals from global markets are combined with inflationary risks and foreign trade imbalances. The global economy is also under pressure from many uncertainties.
“It is important for Ukraine to focus on structural reforms that stimulate export growth and attract foreign investment. Only sustainable development of key industries can ensure long-term economic stability,” summarized Maksim Urakin.
You can learn more about Ukraine’s foreign trade in 2024 in the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFxad1mplE0&t
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American fast-food chain KFC has opened 18 establishments in Ukraine over the past three years and brought their number to 66, in 2025 it is expected to open new restaurants in Odessa, Kiev region and Sokolniki (Lviv region), in Rivne and Kamenskoye (Dnipropetrovsk region) said CEO of KFC franchisee in Ukraine Alina Kiptik in an interview with Forbes Ukraina.
“This year in all establishments in Ukraine we will launch an opportunity to take cold drinks without limit. We will continue the development of omnichannel and digitalization, we will launch ordering via QR codes. The menu will feature an updated line of Ukrainian dishes, two original lines that will pleasantly surprise guests, as well as new drinks, snacks, desserts and other interesting items”, – shared Kiptik.
In addition, KFC every 2-3 months adds new flavors to the menu, seasonal drinks and novelties in the snacks and desserts category. For 2024, 36 new products were launched, including the Ukrainian line.
“More than 80% of the products used in the restaurants are Ukrainian. When building and decorating the interiors of establishments, we also use materials from Ukrainian companies. Part of the kitchen equipment is also made in Ukraine,” Kiptik noted.
KFC in Ukraine in 2024 launched an application where you can make an order and get discounts and bonuses, which can then be exchanged for items from the menu. Each restaurant of the Ukrainian chain was equipped with self-service kiosks. At the beginning of 2024, less than 50% of orders came through them, and at the end of the year – more than 80%.
The KFC brand, owned by the American company Yum! Brands, has been on the Ukrainian market since 2013. In Ukraine, the chain is developed by three franchisee-operators of public catering restaurants: Global Restaurant Group-Ukraine LLC, Testi Food LLC and DTS-Kharkiv LLC, whose offices are located in Kyiv, Dnipro and Kharkiv, respectively.
The international rating agency Fitch Ratings revised upward the price forecast for copper and aluminum for the coming years due to the imbalance in the global market, for gold – due to geopolitical tensions. The experts also adjusted the cost estimates for coking and thermal coal, platinum, palladium and lithium for 2025, reflecting short-term price factors, the agency said.
Expectations for iron ore, nickel, zinc and cobalt were unchanged.
In addition, analysts added a forecast for raw material costs in 2028.
“U.S. trade duties are likely to have implications for the global economy and thus increase volatility in metals prices,” the report said.
The higher forecasts for copper for 2025-2027 reflect a tight global market balance in the short to medium term due to still growing demand from China, although growth slows to 2-3% per year from 7% in 2023. Refined copper consumption in the PRC accounts for almost 60% of global demand.
The lower coking coal forecast for this year reflects weaker steel demand in China, Europe, Japan and South Korea. Meanwhile, coal supplies have been affected by outages at several mines and severe weather conditions. Coking coal demand is likely to recover only towards the end of this year, when new blast furnaces in India and Southeast Asia come online.
Higher aluminum forecasts for 2025-2026 are supported by increased demand, especially in developed markets and China, and limited supply growth, as well as higher alumina prices due to supply disruptions.
Higher gold price expectations for 2025-2027 are driven by a higher geopolitical premium due to the precious metal being considered a “safe haven”.
“Trade war fears and volatility in equity and bond markets have increased investment inflows into gold, leading to record prices. Geopolitical risks and growing investor concerns about inflation and sovereign debt should support prices in the short to medium term,” the Fitch report said.
Expectations for platinum and palladium for this year have been lowered due to a likely price correction due to the impact of the trade war. “We expect suppliers to eventually reduce production, leading to a price recovery in line with our assumptions in 2026,” the agency’s analysts said.
The lowered price forecasts for thermal coal for 2025 reflect weaker demand, especially from China and India, where inventories remain high.
Deteriorating estimates for lithium for the current year reflect rising supplies from China and Africa, contributing to market saturation despite strong demand from electric vehicle manufacturers, Fitch said.
In one of the settlements of the Mykolaiv region (Voznesensk district), modern shelters were equipped in a lyceum and a kindergarten with financial support from Serbia. This was part of efforts to protect children and teachers in the context of the military conflict. The shelters are designed for more than 800 lyceum students and more than 90 kindergarten children. The new safe spaces were restored and equipped by the Olena Zelenska Foundation.
The project was funded as part of Serbian humanitarian aid to Ukraine. The shelters are equipped with the necessary conditions for children and staff to stay during air raids. Officials expressed their gratitude to Serbia for its support in a difficult time.
Serbia has already provided humanitarian aid to Ukraine several times. Last year, Belgrade sent several batches of medicines, food, and basic necessities. In addition, Serbia has participated in projects to restore civilian infrastructure and secure humanitarian corridors.
Serbia remains neutral in the military conflict in Ukraine, but continues to support the population of Ukraine through humanitarian initiatives.
Source: https://t.me/relocationrs/666
In January-February of this year, Ukrainian mining companies reduced exports of iron ore in physical terms by 1.2% compared to the same period last year, to 5 million 595.706 thousand tons.
According to the statistics released by the State Customs Service on Tuesday, foreign exchange earnings from iron ore exports decreased by 18.7% to $449.388 million during this period.
Exports of iron ore were carried out mainly to China (46.50% of supplies in monetary terms), Poland (17.35%) and Slovakia (14.31%).
In January-February 2025, Ukraine imported iron ore worth $1 thousand in the amount of 5 tons from Italy.
As reported, in 2024, Ukraine increased its exports of iron ore by 89.8% compared to 2023 – up to 33 million 699.722 thousand tons, while foreign exchange earnings increased by 58.7% to UAH 2 billion 803.223 million.
In 2024, Ukraine imported iron ore for $414 thousand in a total volume of 2,042 thousand tons, while in 2023, 250 tons of this raw material were imported for $135 thousand.
In 2023, Ukraine decreased exports of iron ore in physical terms by 26% compared to 2022 – to 17 million 753.165 thousand tons, foreign exchange earnings from iron ore exports amounted to $1 billion 766.906 million (down 39.3%). In 2023, Ukraine imported iron ore worth $135 thousand in a total volume of 250 tons.
In the 2025 season, Agrotrade agricultural holding intends to lay down and conduct 370 trials of new varieties and hybrids, nutrition and crop protection systems, its press service reported on Facebook.
“We are constantly improving our technologies to get the best solutions for growing crops. New varieties, optimal nutrition and protection schemes – all this helps us to increase yields and product quality,” said Yuriy Fadeev, R&D specialist at Agrotrade.
The agricultural holding noted that it will conduct 218 tests of new varieties and hybrids, including corn, sunflower, soybeans, winter wheat, winter rapeseed, industrial hemp and peanuts; 30 studies of nutrition and fertilizer standards; 122 tests of plant protection technologies.
This year’s testing area will increase by 20% compared to last year. The agricultural holding will traditionally sow fields in Chernihiv, Sumy and Kharkiv regions.
It will also expand cooperation with international partners and focus on improving digitalization of trials and accounting methods. In addition, new nutrition technologies will be tested for the first time, including liquid mineral fertilizers and plant protection.
Agrotrade Group is a vertically integrated holding company with a full agro-industrial cycle (production, processing, storage and trade of agricultural products). It cultivates over 70 thousand hectares of land in Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava and Kharkiv regions. The company’s main crops are sunflower, corn, winter wheat, soybeans and rapeseed. It has its own network of elevators with a one-time storage capacity of 570 thousand tons.
The group also produces hybrid seeds of corn and sunflower, barley, and winter wheat. In 2014, a seed plant with a capacity of 20 thousand tons of seeds per year was built on the basis of Kolos seed farm (Kharkiv region). In 2018, Agrotrade launched its own brand Agroseeds on the market.
The founder of Agrotrade is Vsevolod Kozhemiako.
