Dynamics of gold and foreign reserves of Ukraine from 2012 to 2023
Source: Open4Business.com.ua and experts.news
Global raw sugar prices remain around $0.26 a pound on fears of supply cuts, Trading Economics reported.
That’s close to a high of more than 11 years (since October 2011) of $0.27 a pound reached in late April.
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) in its May report sharply worsened its forecast for sugar oversupply in the 2022/23 crop year to 850,000 tons from 4.12 million tons a month earlier. This is due to a downward revision in expected supplies from key regions such as Europe, China, Thailand and India.
ISO estimates sugar production this year at 177.36 million tons, compared to the previous forecast of 180.43 million tons. Meanwhile, its global consumption will rise to 176.51 million tons.
“We’ve gone from an expected sugar surplus this year to no surplus at all,” believes Frank Jenkins, president of independent broker JSG Commodities.
Just a few months ago, he expected sugar production to exceed demand by about 4 to 6 million tons. “Because of crop losses in India, China, the European Union, Thailand and Mexico, those estimates have essentially dropped to a balance level, so there’s no real surplus to speak of,” said the expert, quoted by Barron’s.
“Unfavorable weather has become a much bigger problem for all agricultural products, including sugar,” believes Robin Shaw, an analyst at brokerage Marex. “The real enemy of sugar is drought,” and there are more of them around the world, he added.
Shaw predicts that sugar demand is likely to exceed production by 6 million to 7 million tons over the next three years. He previously expected a surplus of about 4 million tons this year.
To unfavorable weather, “you can add potential yield declines due to high fertilizer prices in the last couple of years, which is not helping the sugar market,” said John Stansfield, senior sugar analyst at consulting firm DNEXT Intelligence, John Stansfield.
About 80% of the world’s sugar production comes from sugar cane and 20% from beets, according to ISO. The largest producers are Brazil and India, as well as the EU and Thailand.
Dragon Capital investment company, one of the leading players on the Ukrainian market, forecasts real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3 percent in 2023, while previously it had expected a decline of 0.5 percent.
“We have already improved our forecast: we expect GDP growth of 3% this year,” the company’s founder and head Tomas Fiala said in an interview on Radio NV.
He said power outages have already stopped since mid-February, and economic results in recent months have been better than expected.
“And we hope the economy will grow, perhaps even more than 3 percent,” Fiala added.
Dragon Capital told Interfax-Ukraine that rate and inflation forecasts will also be updated soon.
Fiala noted that Ukraine’s nominal GDP in dollars fell to $160 billion in 2022 from $200 billion in 2021.
“This is the best figure in the last 10 years, more was only in 2021: GDP was $157 billion in 2020 and $160 billion in 2022,” the head of Dragon Capital said.
As reported, Ukrainian Finance Minister Sergei Marchenko late last week said he raised Ukraine’s GDP growth forecast for 2023 to 3.2%, while previously the government had estimated it at 1%, and the National Bank recently improved it from 0.3% to 2%.
Oil prices rise weakly on Tuesday as traders continue to follow negotiations to raise the U.S. borrowing limit.
Negotiations between U.S. President Joe Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Monday were productive, according to both sides, but no agreement was reached. Meanwhile, the deadline for raising the debt ceiling is approaching: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the day before that her agency’s funds are “highly likely” to run out in early June and possibly even by June 1.
“The pending national debt limit issue is taking a toll on the mood of oil traders,” said Ricardo Evangelista, chief analyst at ActivTrades.
“If the issue is not resolved soon, the U.S. Treasury will be left without funds and unable to meet its obligations, and this scenario could trigger a crisis whose scale is unpredictable,” Market Watch quotes the expert as saying.
The cost of July futures for Brent crude oil on London’s ICE Futures exchange is $76.13 a barrel by 8:15 a.m. on Tuesday, up $0.14 (0.18%) from the previous session’s closing price. Those contracts rose $0.41 (0.5%) to $75.99 a barrel on Monday.
The price of WTI futures for July oil grew by $0.16 (0.22%) up to $72.21 per barrel at electronic trades of NYMEX by that time. At the end of previous session the contracts value grew by $0.36 (0.5%) up to $72.05 per barrel.
Since the beginning of the current year, oil prices fell by about 10% against the slower-than-expected recovery of the Chinese economy after the lifting of quarantine restrictions. Other factors restraining the oil market upturn include the ongoing tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve System and the continued high volume of Russian oil exports.
Former Turkish presidential candidate Sinan Ogan of the ATA (Ancestral Alliance) alliance on Monday expressed support ahead of the second round for current President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the Hürriyet newspaper reported.
Ogan, who finished third in the first round of the presidential election and consequently dropped out of further competition, urged his supporters on Sunday to vote for Erdogan.
The second round of the presidential election will be held on May 28. Current President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, head of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), have entered it.
In the first round, Erdoğan received 49.52% of the vote, while Kılıçdaroğlu received 44.88%.
Ogan has about 5%, so experts noted that, given these results, in the second round it is very important to see who this former candidate will support.
Earlier, the Club of Experts analyzed the chances of candidates in the Turkish elections and gave a forecast of the situation. The video is available at the link:
