Oil prices are rising on Monday thanks to some easing of concerns over a possible recession.
A positive factor for the market was Friday’s data on the U.S. labor market, which showed that it remains strong despite a significant tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
“Oil prices have been falling lately because of fears of a global recession, but strong labor market data and positive comments from central bank governors offer hope that a recession can be avoided this year,” said Jamil Ahmad, chief analyst at CompareBroker.io, cited by Market Watch.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that the U.S. economy is likely to continue growing at a moderate pace this year and avoid a recession.
In addition, traders note that China is increasing its oil purchases and demand is likely to remain strong in the next few months due to increased tourist activity in the country.
At the same time, global oil inventories are shrinking and the problem will be exacerbated by OPEC+ production cuts.
July Brent crude futures on London’s ICE Futures exchange stood at $75.7 a barrel by 8:10 a.m. Monday, up $0.4 (0.53%) from the previous session’s closing price. Those contracts rose $2.8 (3.9%) to $75.3 a barrel on Friday.
The price of WTI crude futures for June grew by $0.43 (0.6%) to $71.77 per barrel at electronic auctions of New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by that time. The contract value grew by $2.78 (4.1%) to $71.34 per barrel at the end of previous session.
Brent was down 6.3% and WTI was down 7.1% at the end of last week.
“The market decline last week was much more significant than one would have expected, judging by the supply-demand balance in the market,” said Citigroup Inc. analyst Ed Morse. Ed Morse. – We can expect oil inventories to decline, given the approach of the summer season, during which demand will rise.”
Non-rail carriages Vienna – Kiev, which departed from Vienna (Austria) on May 7, are delayed in transit for 6 hours due to a transport accident on the Hungarian railroad, Ukrzaliznytsia (UZ) said on Facetbook on Monday.
As the company notes, after arriving at the Chop station, the cars will be included in the train number 82 Uzhgorod – Kiev and will arrive in the capital on May 9 (instead of May 8 at 19.30) as part of the train number 750.
“We draw the attention of Ukrainian passengers: the delay will also affect return trains to Vienna. Please take this into account when planning connections and departures from Budapest airport”, – pointed out in the UZ.
As reported, on Sunday morning, nine cars of the Hungarian 35-car freight train with iron ore derailed between stations Újfehértó and Hajdúhadház. Hungarian railroad workers had just begun to lift the wagons. Thus, the restoration of the railroad track and the contact network will last at least one day.
It is specified that train traffic between Hajdúhadház and Újfehértó is suspended. Hungarian Railways offers interchanges by substitute bus, and Hungarian and Austrian Intercity trains between Budapest and Zahony will run between Budapest and Nyiregyház via Miskolc with long travel times.
Ukrainian airline SkyUp Airlines opened a company in Malta and received the relevant certificates, which in the future will allow it to open scheduled flights in Europe, as well as to effectively perform contracts on “wet” leasing terms.
“SkyUp MT airline received its air operator certificate (AOC), CAMO (Continuing airworthiness management organization) and flight operating license (AOL). The airline’s office is located in Malta, which is one of the countries of the European Union. “This allows the air carrier to effectively carry out contracts on a wet lease, as well as in the future to open scheduled flights from Europe,” the airline’s press service said on Friday.
The issuance of the AOC and AOL license is an important milestone for SkyUp MT to begin fully operating in Europe, the statement said.
SkyUp MT reportedly registered its first aircraft in Malta, a Boeing 737-800, which received the registration mark 9H-SAU, which used to be part of the SkyUp Airlines fleet. It is a 2011 aircraft with a 189-seat cabin configuration. Upon request of the airline, it was modified by installing modern Geven seats. Also the ship was equipped with winglets, which help to save fuel.
By the end of 2023 SkyUp MT plans to receive new aircraft. Their exact number is not reported, but it is specified that they will not be from the Ukrainian fleet of SkyUp Airlines, but will come under new contracts.
“The SkyUp brand with Ukrainian DNA is becoming international. We are one of the first to do so in the history of Ukrainian aviation. For us it means opening new opportunities and scaling the business,” the press service quoted SkyUp Airlines co-owner Alexander Alba as saying.
He also stressed that the hull of the aircraft, which was the first aircraft SkyUp MT, has the inscription The Power of Freedom, which was applied within the partnership with the fundraising platform UNITED24. The airline believes that this is not only symbolic, but also will attract more fundraising for Ukraine, as the ship will operate on European flights.
Earlier it was reported that SkyUp Airlines evacuated the last plane from Boryspil airport to Iasi (Romania).
SkyUp Airlines (Kiev) carried 2.3 times fewer passengers in 2022 than in 2021 – 1.08 million, due to the full-scale aggression of Russia and against Ukraine and the closure of Ukrainian skies since February 24 last year. After the war began, the company worked on a “wet lease” with 10 airlines, including Wizz Air, SmartWings, Freebird Airlines, Tailwind Airlines, and Corendon Airlines, and in just one year it operated 7,713 flights to 204 airports worldwide on 627 routes.
Skyap Airlines LLC was registered in Kiev in June 2016, and made its first flight in 2018. The founder is ACS-Ukraine LLC of Tatyana and Yuri Alba, who also own JoinUp tour operator!
The water level of the Dnieper river in the capital near the Metro bridge has decreased by 4 cm compared to the previous day, the Kyiv city military administration said.
“As of 10:00 on 07.05.2023, the Dnieper in Kiev near the bridge “Metro” is 9,299 cm (according to the Baltic system of heights). Water temperature: 14°C. Compared to the previous day, the flood level has decreased by 4 cm,” – indicated in a message in the telegram channel.
The head of KHWA Sergey Popko noted that for more than 2 weeks the height of the flood in the capital fluctuates around 9300 cm, which is less than 60 cm maximum high water in the middle of April, so there is no threat to the city of high water. Emergency flooding in the city of Kiev has not been recorded.
“The danger level of hydrological phenomena remains I (yellow). At the same time there is flooding of the floodplain with a layer of about 45 cm. Floodplain areas remain flooded – islands in the park Muromets, Hidropark, Trukhanov Island, Galerny bay, Korchevatoe, private areas near Osokorki. Industrial facilities and residential massive cities are out of danger of flooding. Monitoring of the current floods continues”, – said Popko.
Monday, May 8, at night in most western regions, as well as during the day in the Carpathian region and the southern part at times rain, in the Carpathians with wet snow. In the rest of the territory without precipitation, reports Ukrhydrometecenter.
The wind is north-east, 7-12 m/s.
Temperatures at night 1-6°, in the northern part of the country, frosts of 0-5 degrees on the soil surface. Temperatures in the south of the country are 4-9°. Daytime temperatures are 9-14°, in Transcarpathian and southern parts of the country up to 17°. Carpathian highlands have night and daytime temperatures of 0-5°.
In Kiev, without precipitation, the wind is north-east, 7-12 m/s. The temperature at night is 4-6° warm, while during the day it is 11-13°.
According to the Central Geophysical Observatory. The highest daytime temperature in Kiev on May 8, was recorded in 1907 and amounted to 28.2 ° C, the lowest at night – 0.5 ° in 1953.
Tuesday, May 9, in the south-east, in the southern regions it will be raining, thunderstorms, light rain and sleet in the Carpathians. The rest of the territory is dry.
Winds are north-east, 5-10 m/sec.
The temperature at night is 1-6° warm, in the northern western regions there are frosts of 0-5° on the ground. Temperatures in the south of the country are 4-9° warm. Daytime temperatures are 10-15°, in Transcarpathia 14-19°. At night and daytime in the Carpathian highlands it is 0-5° heat.
In Kiev, without precipitation, the wind is northeastern, 5-10 m/s. Temperatures at night 3-5° warm, during the day 12-14°.
Ukraine’s unemployment rate will decline to an average of 21.1% in 2023 from 21.1% in 2022, the National Bank said in its inflation report, explaining the improvement by revised methodology and positive trends in the labor market.
In its January report, it estimated unemployment in 2022 at 25.8% and expected it to rise slightly to 26.1% this year.
“In the absence of official statistics, assessing the impact of the war on the labor market, both in general and in terms of certain categories of the population and regions, is difficult and requires additional research methods, including the use of alternative sources of information. These are the data and survey results that allowed us to refine the unemployment estimate for 2022,” the NBU said.
He specified that based on such surveys, the average unemployment rate in 2022 is estimated at 19% to 23%. In addition, an improvement in the unemployment rate in the second half of 2022 was confirmed.
“Since the beginning of 2023, the labor market has been gradually recovering, but this process is still unstable… Since the beginning of 2023, the situation on the labor market has been improving. However, unemployment remains high and is becoming structural,” the NBU said.
It is noted that imbalances in the labor market will persist, the unemployment rate will remain higher than before the war, and real wage growth will be more restrained, but uneven by sector and region.
According to the published information, the recovery in the labor market was driven by an improved situation in the energy sector and a seasonal pickup in activity.
The NBU added that the burden per vacancy has increased and differs significantly between regions and professions. This is due to both changes in the structure of the economy as a result of the war and a large number of IDPs, and may indicate increased signs of structural unemployment. One of the reasons for structural unemployment is the difficulty of moving potential employees to a region where there is work in their specialty.
In terms of wages, the SSSU estimates that in 2022, thanks to the public sector, the average nominal wage increased by 5.9% (real wages decreased by 11.8%), which is better than the NBU’s previous estimates.
It is expected that real wages will grow by 3.7% on average in 2023, while nominal wages will grow by 21.9%, while in January the NBU estimated these figures at 3.3% and 25%, respectively.
As reported, the NBU improved its inflation forecast for this year to 14.8% from 18.7% compared to its January report. According to its estimates, inflation in annual terms will decline from 21.3% to 14.5% in the second quarter, after which it will fluctuate between 14.9 and 14.7% by the end of the first quarter of 2024.
