Investment bank Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for the gold price at the end of 2025 to $3,700 per ounce, up $400 from its previous estimate. The bank’s analysts expect that amid growing recessionary risks and stronger demand from central banks, the price of gold could range from $3,650 to $3,950 per ounce. In the event of negative scenarios, such as an economic downturn in the United States, the price could reach $4,500 per ounce.
Historical dynamics of gold prices over the past 10 years.
2015-2018: The gold price remained in the range of $1,100-$1,300 per ounce.
2019-2020: Growth to $1,500-$2,000 per ounce amid global economic uncertainties.
2021-2022: Stabilization in the range of $1,800-$1,900 per ounce.
2023-2024: Gradual increase to $2,400 per ounce.
2025: Reaching record levels exceeding $3,200 per ounce.
Gold prices traditionally rise during periods of geopolitical instability and economic crises, as investors view the metal as a safe haven asset.
In March 2025, China’s exports grew by 12.4% year-on-year, reaching $313.9 billion. This growth was significantly higher than the forecasted 4.4% and was the highest in the last five months. The main reason for this jump was the desire of Chinese manufacturers to speed up deliveries abroad before the new high US duties on Chinese goods come into effect.
On April 10, the administration of President Donald Trump increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%, citing trade imbalances and problems with fentanyl. In response, China imposed retaliatory duties of 125% on American goods and restricted exports of rare earth elements.
Experts warn that the March export growth is temporary. Exports are expected to decline in the coming months due to new tariffs and weakening global demand.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Citi have already lowered their forecasts for China’s GDP growth in 2025 to 4% and 4.2%, respectively. At the same time, China’s imports fell by 4.3% in March, indicating weak domestic demand. Purchases of soybeans fell particularly sharply – by 36.8%, which may be due to trade restrictions and delays in shipments from Brazil.
In response to the deterioration of trade relations with the United States, China is stepping up efforts to diversify its export destinations, increasing supplies to Southeast Asia, Africa, and India.
During his visit to Southeast Asia, President Xi Jinping emphasized the need to strengthen regional trade ties and counter unilateral protectionist measures.
Thus, despite the short-term growth in exports, the Chinese economy faces serious challenges amid the escalation of the trade war with the United States and weakening domestic demand.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) increased sales of foreign currency on the interbank market last week by $144.27 million, or 36.8%, to $536.17 million, according to statistics on the regulator’s website.
According to the statistics, the National Bank bought only $0.06 million last week, compared to $6.63 million a week ago.
The data that the regulator managed to publish during this time shows that the negative balance between the volume of currency purchases by the population and the volume of its sales last week was volatile: from $16.6 million over the weekend and Monday, the amount increased to $22.1 million on Tuesday and $24.2 million on Wednesday, but on Thursday it fell to $17.2 million.
Along with the increase in interventions, the official hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar weakened by 19 kopecks to 41.3879 UAH/$1 last week.
On the cash market, the dollar also rose in price, but much less: from the level of 40.87-41.00, it reached a local peak of 41.16-41.30 UAH/$1 on April 10, but then the hryvnia strengthened to 40.95-41.10 UAH/$1.
As reported, Ukraine’s international reserves amounted to $42.4 billion as of April 1, 2025, up 5.6%, or $2.23 billion, from a month ago.
Haysynskyi Sugar Plant, part of the Ukrprominvest-Agro agricultural holding (UPI-AGRO), has started producing sugar from syrup put into storage during the 2024 production season, the agricultural holding’s press service reports.
“Haysynskyi Sugar Plant is the first in Ukraine to implement a technological scheme for processing sugar syrup,” the agricultural holding emphasized.
According to the report, this year’s syrup production season will last 37 days. During this time, it is planned to produce 26 thousand tons of sugar from 48 thousand tons of syrup.
So far, more than 7 thousand tons of sugar syrup have been processed.
“Ukrprominvest-Agro is engaged in growing crops, producing sugar, flour, meat and dairy farming. The group’s land bank exceeds 116.5 thousand hectares. The agricultural holding is located mainly in regions that have not been invaded by the Russian occupiers.
The group’s sugar business is represented by two sugar factories in Vinnytsia region. The total elevator storage capacity is 120 thousand tons.
Ukrprominvest-Agro comprises Agroprodinvest Group LLC, PJSC Podillya PC, LLC Zorya Podillya PC, LLC Vinnytsia Bakery No. 2, AF Dniproagrolan, AF Ivankivtsi, LLC Mas-Agro, LLC Pravoberezhne, and LLC Progress-NT.
The owner of the agricultural holding since December 2019 is the son of the former President of Ukraine Oleksiy Poroshenko.
For the second time in April, the National Securities and Stock Market Commission (NSSMC) added five cases to the list of unreliable investment projects, the regulator’s Telegram channel reported on Monday.
The list of dubious projects includes trading platforms Finalto Trading Limited, RaceTrader, Stockity, ROLEXJT, as well as a cryptocurrency investment platform with an AI assistant Quant AI.
The list, which is available on the Commission’s official website in the Investor Protection section, already includes 429 dubious investment projects.
Passenger traffic across the Ukrainian border in the sixth week of spring, from April 5 to 11, with the end of school holidays, remained at the level of the previous week – 488 thousand, while the net inflow decreased from 40 thousand to 22 thousand, according to the State Border Guard Service on Facebook.
According to the data, the flow of entry decreased by 3.4% – from 264 thousand to 255 thousand, while the flow of exit increased by 4% – from 224 thousand to 233 thousand.
The number of vehicles crossing the checkpoints this week increased from 122,000 to 127,000, while the flow of vehicles carrying humanitarian aid decreased from 546 to 625.
According to the State Border Guard Service, as of 12:00 on Saturday, the queue to leave the border with Poland was only at the Ustyluh checkpoint – 20 cars, on the border with Slovakia at the Uzhhorod and Maly Berezny checkpoints – 25 and 10 cars, respectively, while on the border with Hungary at the Tisa and Vylok checkpoints – 15 and 10 cars, respectively.
The total number of people crossing the border this week in 2025 is slightly higher than last year’s: 238 thousand people left Ukraine and 234 thousand entered during the same seven days, with a traffic flow of 116 thousand. But last year, Easter was celebrated on March 31 (Western rite) and May 5 (Eastern rite), while this year the celebration falls on one day – April 20, and an increase in passenger traffic is expected.
As reported, on May 10, 2022, the outflow of refugees from Ukraine, which began with the outbreak of war, was replaced by an influx that lasted until September 23, 2022 and amounted to 409 thousand people. However, since the end of September, possibly under the influence of news about mobilization in Russia and “pseudo-referendums” in the occupied territories, and then massive shelling of energy infrastructure, the number of people leaving has been exceeding the number of people entering. In total, from the end of September 2022 to the first anniversary of the full-scale war, it reached 223 thousand people.
In the second year of the full-scale war, the number of border crossings to leave Ukraine, according to the State Border Guard Service, exceeded the number of crossings to enter by 25 thousand, while in the third year – by 187 thousand, and since the beginning of the fourth year, a small net inflow of 3 thousand has been recorded.
As Deputy Economy Minister Serhiy Sobolev noted in early March 2023, the return of every 100,000 Ukrainians home results in a 0.5% increase in GDP.
In its January inflation report, the National Bank estimated the outflow from Ukraine in 2024 at 0.5 million (0.315 million according to the State Border Guard Service). In absolute terms, the number of migrants staying abroad will increase to 6.8 million in 2024. The NBU also maintained its outflow forecast for 2025 at 0.2 million.
According to updated data from the UNHCR, the number of Ukrainian refugees in Europe as of March 20, 2025, was estimated at 6.373 million, and 6.933 million worldwide, which is 26 thousand more than as of February 19.
In Ukraine itself, according to the latest UN data, 3.665 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), including approximately 160 thousand people, were displaced from the frontline areas in the east and south between May and October 2024 due to the intensification of hostilities.
