Ukraine’s economy demonstrates steady but uneven growth amid ongoing challenges caused by the war, inflationary risks, and global instability.
GDP growth
According to the Ministry of Economy, Ukraine’s real GDP increased by 3.1% year-on-year in January-October 2024. The growth rate slowed slightly compared to the first months of the year due to the impact of external economic factors and a decline in exports.
“The Ukrainian economy demonstrates strength and adaptability even in the face of large-scale challenges. However, for sustainable development, it is necessary to continue reforms aimed at improving the investment climate and supporting exports,” said Maksim Urakin, founder of Experts Club.
Inflation
Inflation continues to be one of the key issues. According to the National Bank of Ukraine, annual inflation was 9.1% in October, accelerating from 8.5% in September. The main factors behind the price increase were higher energy prices, hryvnia depreciation and high logistics costs.
“Inflation puts pressure on the consumer spending power of the population. It is important that the government pays more attention to tools to curb price growth, including support for national production and the development of the domestic market,” Urakin emphasized.
Foreign trade
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods increased by 6.4% over ten months compared to the same period last year and amounted to $22.1 billion. Exports decreased by 4.8%, especially for agricultural products and metallurgy, while imports increased by 3.2%, mainly due to purchases of fuel and industrial equipment.
“Ukraine needs to develop export channels more actively, diversify its sales markets and support its producers. This will help to balance the trade deficit and strengthen its position in international markets,” Urakin added.
State budget and reserves
State budget revenues in January-October amounted to UAH 1.91 trillion, which is 12% higher than in the same period of 2023. However, a significant portion of the revenues was provided by international financial assistance. In October, Ukraine’s international reserves decreased by 6.7% to $37.2 billion, due to the repayment of external liabilities and a decrease in foreign exchange earnings.
Global economic situation
The global economy continues to face uncertainty caused by high interest rates, geopolitical conflicts, and the weakening of key economies.
According to the International Monetary Fund, global GDP will grow by 3.0% in 2024, which is in line with forecasts but below the average of recent decades.
USA – the economy grew by 2.5%, supported by high domestic consumption and investment.
Eurozone – growth was 0.8%, due to the recession in Germany and a slowdown in industrial production.
China – GDP grew by 4.6%, but the economy is facing problems in the real estate sector and a decline in exports.
India – remains one of the leaders of growth, showing a 6.9% economic recovery.
“The global economy is balancing between recovery and new challenges. In the coming months, geopolitical instability, energy price fluctuations and financial constraints due to high interest rates will remain the main risks,” – Mr. Urakin noted.
Global trends:
1. Financial markets remain volatile as central banks in leading countries are in no hurry to cut rates.
2. The energy crisis in Europe continues to put pressure on the economy.
3. Rising commodity prices, including oil and gas, are affecting inflationary processes around the world.
Ukraine’s economy has shown moderate growth in the first ten months of 2024, but faces challenges in the form of inflation, trade imbalance, and pressure on the state budget. The global economy remains exposed to risks associated with the high cost of borrowed funds and the slowdown in key countries.
“It is important for Ukraine to continue reforms aimed at supporting business and attracting investment. This is the only way to ensure long-term economic stability and create a solid foundation for future growth,” – summarized Maksim Urakin.
In 2024, Nikopol Ferroalloy Plant (NFP, Dnipro region) reduced its output by 2.38 times compared to 2023, to 81.35 thousand tons from 193.77 thousand tons.
The Ukrainian Ferroalloy Producers Association (UkrFA) toldInterfax-Ukraine that in 2024, the plant reduced silicomanganese production by 2.29 times to 81.07 thousand tons from 185.51 thousand tons, and did not produce ferromanganese (5.32 thousand tons in 2023). Other ferroalloys were produced in the amount of 0.28 thousand tons (2.94 thousand tons, respectively).
As reported, Pokrovsky Mining and Processing Plant (PGOK, formerly Ordzhonikidze Mining and Processing Plant) and Marganetsky Mining and Processing Plant (MGOK, both in Dnipropetrovska oblast), both part of Privat Group, stopped mining and processing crude manganese ore in late October and early November 2023, while NGOK and Zaporizhzhya Ferroalloy Plant (ZZP) suspended production. Later, the ferroalloy companies resumed operations at a minimum level of production.
In particular, ZZF has been operating two furnaces at 7% capacity since May 1, 2024, and NFP has also been operating since the end of June last year.
The average monthly output of ferroalloys in stable operation is about 55-60 thousand tons.
NFP is Ukraine’s largest silico- and ferromanganese producer. It uses imported and domestic raw materials to produce ferroalloys.
NFP is controlled by the EastOne Group, created in the fall of 2007 as a result of the restructuring of the Interpipe Group, and the Privat Group (both based in Dnipro).
Metinvest Group’s Central, Ingulets and Northern Mining and Processing Plants (MPPs), which were transformed into United Mining and Processing Plant (UMPP), paid UAH 5.7 billion in taxes in 2024.
According to the company’s press release on Wednesday, in 2023, YuGOK, Central GOK and InGOK transferred UAH 2.2 billion to the state and municipal budgets.
“Thus, mining and processing enterprises remain a reliable pillar of Ukraine even during the war,” the press service states.
It is specified that in 2024, the main source of budget revenues was the tax on the use of subsoil, which amounted to UAH 2.7 billion. A significant share of deductions is accounted for by a single social contribution (UAH 673 million) and personal income tax (UAH 595 million). The environmental tax and land fees also contribute to the state and local budgets.
“It is the mining and metals companies that are the largest taxpayers and support the Ukrainian economy despite the war and challenges. These funds are needed for the social sector – healthcare, education, and most importantly, they support Ukraine’s defense capability. Metinvest’s Kryvyi Rih GOKs also remain one of the main employers in the region, providing jobs for thousands of specialists, including veterans returning from the war,” said Igor Tonev, CEO of Metinvest’s United GOKs.
As a reminder, Metinvest Group, including its associates and joint ventures, increased its payment of taxes and fees to budgets of all levels by 36% in 2024 to UAH 19.8 billion compared to 2023.
As reported earlier, Metinvest has implemented a new model for the operation of its Kryvyi Rih mining and processing enterprises, bringing together mining and processing plants in Kryvyi Rih under a single management.
In 2023, the Group’s Kryvyi Rih enterprises paid a total of UAH 4.6 billion in taxes and fees to the budgets of all levels.
“Metinvest comprises mining and metallurgical enterprises located in Ukraine, Europe and the United States. Its major shareholders are SCM Group (71.24%) and Smart Holding (23.76%), which jointly manage it.
Metinvest Holding LLC is the management company of Metinvest Group.
Ukrnafta PJSC, which with the help of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has planned projects to generate power from its own gas with a total capacity of up to 370 MW, is additionally working to attract investment to build renewable energy capacity such as solar and wind, said supervisory board chairman Duncan Nightingale.
“We want to introduce about 200 MW of renewable energy over the next two years,” he said in a blitzing interview with Interfax-Ukraine.
Nightingale recalled that, according to agreements with the EBRD, in addition to loan funds, the bank is providing the company with grant support worth several tens of millions of euros.
“All these funds will be used for the construction of gas generation. At the first stage we plan to build about 375 MW of new gas to power capacities,” the chairman of the Supervisory Board specified.
According to him, initially Ukrnafta’s plan until 2028 provides for the introduction of about 1 GW of new electricity and heat generation, as well as storages (for energy storage – IF-U), which will require significant investments.
“We plan to attract funds from current donors, national and international banks, and investors. The main task is to direct the company’s funds to the main activities to increase hydrocarbon production, and energy projects should be self-sufficient, including the attraction of financing,” Nightingale emphasized.
He thanked investors who are now supporting Ukrnafta on the way to building gas generation.
“Ukrnafta realizes the importance of traditional energy sources, especially under the conditions of martial law. At the same time, we use gas as a transition fuel for power generation. This allows us to work on environmentally sustainable solutions for the future,” summarized the Chairman of the Supervisory Board.
“Ukrnafta is Ukraine’s largest oil producer and is the operator of the national network of gas stations. In March 2024, the company entered into Glusco asset management and operates a total of 544 filling stations – 461 owned and 83 under management.
Ukrnafta’s largest shareholder is Naftogaz of Ukraine with a 50%+1 share stake. In November 2022, the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the AFU decided to transfer to the state a share of corporate rights of the company, which belonged to private owners and is now managed by the Ministry of Defense.
Read the full blitzinterview with PJSC Ukrnafta Supervisory Board Chairman Duncan Nightingale on the sidelines of the Ukrainian House in Davos soon on the agency’s website www.interfax.com.ua.
Net profit of Credit Agricole Bank (Kyiv) amounted to UAH 4.09 billion last year, which is 46.5% or UAH 1.44 billion more than in 2023, the press service of the financial institution reports.
“Crédit Agricole Bank’s net profit for the year amounted to UAH 4.1 billion after taxes at the increased rate of 50% (…) The bank’s financial results demonstrate sustainable development dynamics, disciplined risk management, and customer confidence,” the press release says.
It is noted that Credit Agricole’s net banking income for 2024 reached UAH 9.25 billion, which is 4.9% more than last year.
According to the press release, this is due to the growth of net interest income by 3.9% compared to 2023 to UAH 8.17 billion and increase of the deposit base by 10.9% to UAH 100.1 billion.
It is specified that corporate deposits increased by 9.3% to UAH 79.14 billion, and retail deposits by 17.2% to UAH 20.95 billion.
At the same time, the bank’s fee and commission income decreased by 5.6% to UAH 706 million.
The volume of loans and advances to customers remained almost unchanged in 2024, remaining at UAH 28.16 billion. Loans to businesses in Credit Agricole decreased by 2.8% to UAH 23.60 billion, while loans to individuals increased by 20.6% to UAH 4.55 billion.
“Credit Agricole has strengthened its position as a leader in car lending with a 28% market share in Ukraine. In 2024, the bank disbursed new car loans in the amount of UAH 3.3 billion, which is 50% more than in the previous year, outpacing the market growth rate of 40%,” the press service of the bank noted.
Last year, the bank’s assets increased by 12.9% to UAH 116.93 billion, while liabilities grew by 9.7% to UAH 103.75 billion. Agricole’s operating expenses increased by 11.7% to UAH 2.68 billion.
