A prolonged blockade of the Black Sea could lead to a significant reduction in grain plantings during the 2026/27 marketing year (MY), primarily corn and wheat, farmers may partially shift to oilseeds, which are more profitable under these conditions, said Taras Vysotsky, Ukraine’s Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food.
“Our assessment is that the area planted with grains—primarily corn and wheat—will decrease, while the area planted with oilseeds—primarily soybeans and sunflowers—will increase,” he told reporters in Kyiv on Thursday, according to an Interfax-Ukraine correspondent.
“The largest reduction in acreage—as it looks today—will be for corn: we do not rule out that this reduction could even be by half,” the minister added.
Regarding wheat, he noted that a survey of farmers showed that the potential reduction in wheat acreage is 15–17%.
“From our perspective, this will reflect reality. If we had 5.1 million hectares of planted area in the 2025/26 marketing year—which included both winter and spring crops, with winter crops accounting for 5 million hectares—then we estimate that planted area in the 2026/27 marketing year will be 4–4.2 million hectares, a 17% decrease,” Vysotsky noted.
According to him, the area planted with barley will be 1.5 million hectares, and that planted with rapeseed will be 1.3 million hectares, of which 0.2 million hectares will be spring crops, which corresponds to the previous year’s figures.
The minister noted that, on average, 20 million hectares in Ukraine are planted with the six main grain and oilseed crops (wheat, barley, corn, sunflower, rapeseed, and soybeans).
According to data from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, as of October 20, farmers had planted 3.93 million hectares with winter grain crops, or 75.4% of the projected area; over the past week, the planted area increased by 0.56 million hectares, whereas on the same date last year, the figure was 4.84 million hectares, or 74% of the forecast.
This year, 3.51 million hectares have already been planted with wheat (77.4% of the projected area), 0.34 million hectares with winter barley (57.9%), and 70,700 hectares with rye (92.1%). A year ago, these figures were 3.44 million hectares, 0.3 million hectares, and 60,000 hectares, respectively.
Winter rapeseed plantings in the 2026/27 marketing year exceeded the forecast: the area planted is 1.12 million hectares, or 101.4% of the planned volume, while last year 1.03 million hectares were planted.
Agricultural exports, CORN, PLANTING, UKRAINE, WHEAT
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