In a new episode of the Experts Club YouTube channel, Maksim Urakin, PhD in Economics, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the NBU, the UN, the IMF, and the World Bank.
Macroeconomic Indicators of Ukraine
Maksim Urakin cited data from Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Social Studies, who estimates that about 50% of citizens will return after the war.
“Demographics is an important factor for economic recovery, but the threat of depopulation and labor shortages cannot be ignored. In the medium term, the decline in the demographic growth potential in Ukraine can only be offset by migration,” Urakin emphasized.
The expert noted that the main risks to the economy remain the duration of the war and the instability of international aid.
“In the third quarter of 2023, Ukraine’s GDP growth slowed to 8.2%. The negative balance of foreign trade increased 3.2 times, which is an alarming signal. The public debt has slightly decreased compared to August figures, but in 2024 it may exceed the country’s GDP for the first time, which poses significant risks to economic stability,” the economist said.
Prospects for the Global Economy
The founder of Experts Club also analyzed the global economy, noting a slowdown in growth in 2024 to 2.2%.
“One of the key reasons for the slowdown in global economic growth is the decline in GDP in developed countries. We are witnessing the lowest GDP growth in developed countries since the 1980s, with the exception of the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. The unprecedented cycle of interest rate hikes by major central banks in recent years has also played a significant role in slowing growth. These rate hikes are driven by the need to control inflation, but at the same time, they limit economic activity,” the expert explains.
According to the expert, the current macroeconomic situation in Ukraine and the world requires further analysis. For Ukraine, the main challenges in the coming years will be the need to restore Ukraine after the war and manage the public debt.
For more information on the situation in the Ukrainian and global economy, please see the video on the YouTube channel “Club of Experts” at the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byJnfmie7bM
You can subscribe to the channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
ECONOMY, economy review, EXPERTS CLUB, MACROECONOMICS, URAKIN, world economy
