Oil prices are rising sharply on Tuesday morning, recovering from a decline in the previous session, during which quotations reached lows of almost a year.
The cost of January Brent futures on London’s ICE Futures Exchange stands at $85.16 a barrel by 7:12 a.m. CST, up $1.97 (2.37%) from the previous session’s closing price. At the close of trading on Monday those contracts have fallen by $0.44 (0.5%) to $83.19 per barrel.
The price of WTI futures for January at electronic trades of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) is $78.87 per barrel by that time, which is $1.53 (1.98%) above the final value of the previous session. The day before contract went down in price by $0.96 (1.3%) to $77.24 per barrel.
In trading on Monday, Brent fell to its lowest level since January and WTI dropped to its lowest point since last December, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The reason for the fall were mass protests against lockdowns, which took place over the weekend throughout China, including Beijing, Shanghai, Xinjiang and Wuhan.
Experts are concerned that unexpectedly mass protests in China, which is the world’s largest oil importer, could provoke a tough reaction from the authorities of China, notes Bloomberg.
However, then American traders returned to the market after a long weekend and oil prices have moved away from the session lows.
“The last few days have been difficult for oil due to a combination of low volumes, sluggish trading and concerns about reduced demand due to lockdowns in China,” Colin Cieszynski, senior analyst at SIA Wealth Management, wrote.
The market’s attention is now focused on the next OPEC+ meeting on December 4 and on negotiations regarding the introduction of a price ceiling on Russian oil in response to Russia’s continuation of a full-scale war against Ukraine. European Union countries again failed to reach a consensus on Monday, as some countries found the proposed price cap of $62 a barrel too high, Bloomberg reported, citing informed sources.
The dollar is actively declining against major world currencies Tuesday morning after speeches by members of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed).
The ICE index, which shows the U.S. dollar against six currencies (euro, Swiss franc, yen, Canadian dollar, pound sterling and Swedish krona), is down 0.4 percent, as is the broader WSJ Dollar Index.
The Fed may slow the pace of interest rate hikes, but it has no plans to interrupt the process itself just yet, Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) Cleveland President Loretta Mester told the Financial Times.
“It’s very easy to focus only on good news, but we don’t want to succumb to self-delusion. The cost of a hasty stop is too high,” she noted.
Mester is among the voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in 2022, which decides interest rate levels.
In November, the Fed raised the rate by 75 basis points (bps) for the fourth consecutive meeting. The rate is now at its highest since January 2008 at 3.75-4% per annum. The Fed is expected to raise the cost of borrowing by 50 basis points in December.
The euro/dollar pair is trading at $1.0387 by 7:40 kk against $1.0340 at the close of Monday’s session; the euro is adding about 0.45%.
The dollar/yen exchange rate is down 0.2% at 138.66 yen from 138.93 yen at the end of last session.
The pound is up 0.4%, trading at $1.2005 versus $1.1960 the day before.
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky held meetings with the foreign ministers of Estonia, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Finland and Sweden, who arrived on a visit to Kiev.
“Met with the foreign ministers of Estonia – Urmas Reinsalu, Iceland – Tordis Kolbrun Gylfadottir, Latvia – Edgars Rinkevics, Lithuania – Gabrielius Landsbergis, Norway – Anniken Uitfeldt, Finland – Pekka Haavisto and Sweden – Tobias Billström,” Zelensky wrote in Telegram Monday.
“This visit is an important signal of strong support and solidarity of partner countries with Ukraine, especially in times of serious challenges. I thank the Baltic and Nordic countries for their invariably active and effective assistance to Ukraine in defending its territorial integrity and independence,” the Ukrainian head of state added.
The Kyiv analytical center “Club of Experts” together with the consulting company “Club of Exporters of Ukraine” and the information portal Open4business launched a new project to help Ukrainian businesses achieve success in international markets.
According to the founders of the project, at the first stage, a series of video courses will be created on the YouTube platform, with the help of which it will be possible to get acquainted with the peculiarities of doing business in the EU countries, importing and exporting goods, European certification rules, etc.
“Thanks to our project, businesses will be able to receive prompt advice and assistance from our representatives both in Europe and in Ukraine,” said Maxim Urakin, founder of the Club of Experts.
According to Evgenia Litvinova, CEO of the Ukrainian Exporters Club, the business project will include not only a series of training videos, but also the possibility of providing specialized advice to those companies that want to quickly and cost-effectively enter the European and global markets.
“For each consulting assignment of our client, we carefully select a project team, which is formed from internal and external experts who are specialists in the required industries. The presence of good contacts and reputation within the country, both in industries and with various government agencies, allows us to quickly and efficiently implement projects,” Litvinova said.
For individual advice on doing business in the EU and other countries of the world, you can fill out the online form at the link:
https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSeit-dG6SJ9E9QtDSZ4ggqQEmn1RHyAMKfDqO90Db4cDn1ZEA/viewform
Project partners:
Exporters Club: https://people2people.com.ua/ru/
Portal Open4business: https://open4business.com.ua
Expert club channel: https://www.youtube.com/@user-nz9lh8yg9g
BUSINESS, BUSINESS_IN_EU, CLUB_EXPERTS, CLUB_EXPORTERS, HELP_BUSINESS, URAKIN, ЛИТВИНОВА
Demand in the Ukrainian countryside real estate market has increased significantly in autumn 2022, most actively looking for houses with a generator, basement and own well, follows from the analytics of the portal “OLX Real Estate”.
“Ukrainians this fall were more interested in renting suburban real estate than last year. Thus peak of inquiries coincided with the large-scale bombardment of infrastructure on October 10 and 17 (38 thousand and 37 thousand inquiries respectively), and also with the statements about the possible blackout on October 31 (32 thousand). Overall, interest in out-of-town rentals in mid-November 2022 was three times higher than in November 2021,” the portal reported.
The most popular regions for the rent of a country house were Zakarpattya, Chernigov and Ivano-Frankivsk regions. At the same time the most number of variants are offered in Kiev, Dnepropetrovsk and Odessa regions.
More than half of the houses for rent are located within the city limits (54%), up to 15 km from the city – 39% of ads, 20-50 km – 8%.
The most popular offers of country houses on site OLX are brick houses (77% of ads), insulated with mineral wool (52%) with individual gas heating (57%).
According to OLX, the number of ads with the proposal to rent a country house with a generator during the fall has increased six-fold – up to 1177. There are 3,034 ads with homes with a well, with a basement – 441, and their number in November decreased by 12% compared to September.
Meanwhile, demand for homes with a generator quadrupled in the fall to 10 potential renters per listing.
According to OLX, the average cost of renting a house with a generator in the Kiev region is 80.4 thousand UAH per month, in Odessa – 43.8 thousand UAH per month, Dnipropetrovsk – 35.9 thousand UAH per month, Ivano-Frankivsk – 32.9 thousand UAH per month, Transcarpathian – 26 thousand UAH per month. The cheapest house with a generator is in Lviv region – on average for 25 thousand UAH/month.
Houses with a basement are from 21.9 thousand UAH/month in Ivano-Frankovsk region to 58.5 thousand UAH/month in Transcarpathian region, houses with a well – from 8 thousand UAH/month in Odessa region to 45 thousand UAH/month in the Kiev region.
Stagflation will be a key risk for the global economy in 2023, according to investors who say hopes of a market rally are premature after this year’s massive sell-off.
Nearly half of the 388 respondents in the new MLIV Pulse survey said a scenario in which economic growth continues to slow while inflation remains high will dominate the world next year. A deflationary recession is considered the second most likely scenario, while a recovery with high inflation is considered the least likely scenario.
The survey results signal that next year will again be a difficult one for risky assets after central bank measures to tighten monetary policy, rising inflation and a full-scale war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine triggered the most significant stock market crash since the 2008 global financial crisis, Bloomberg writes. More than 60 percent of those surveyed say investors around the world are still overly optimistic about asset prices.
“Next year is still going to be a tough one,” said Buffalo International Fund portfolio manager at Kornitzer Capital Management Inc. Nicole Kornitzer.
“Definitely stagflation is expected at this point,” the expert notes.
Meanwhile, about 60% of those surveyed expect the dollar to weaken further. That contrasts with the October survey, when nearly half of respondents expected to hold long dollar positions ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting in November.
“The dollar is likely to weaken over the course of 2023,” Cornitzer said. – Perhaps not very significantly, but the trend will probably be downward.”
All investors’ attention is focused on what the Fed will do next, with economic growth likely to come under even more pressure as interest rates remain high for longer. Another risk to the global economy is China’s “zero tolerance” policy to the coronavirus, experts say.
Stagflation (a word combination of stagnation + inflation) is a situation in which economic recession and a depressed economy (stagnation and rising unemployment) are combined with rising prices – inflation.
The invention of the term is attributed to British politician and Minister of Finance of the early 1970s, Ian McLeod. The expression was first used by MacLeod in a parliamentary speech in 1965.
